Take 2011 where two teams completely out of it suddenly made the playoffs and one of them even won it all.  It’s impossible to predict baseball.  Sure you usually have a pretty good chance of knowing which teams will be good, and which will be bad, but every year dozens of people that watch hundreds of games are completely wrong about who’s going to win divisions.

Despite a handful of games against the Wild Card-leading Atlanta Braves still to come in the last 60 or so games, when the Mets traded Carlos Beltran on July 27th while trailing those Braves by 7.5 games, it was considered the right move.  That’s a lot of ground to make up for a team barely above .500, and the long term benefits of trading Beltran were largely considered to outweigh any gutshot chance the Mets had at overcoming that deficit.  As it turns out, the Mets were only two games behind the team that eventually won the Wild Card.  The St. Louis Cardinals were a mere couple of games better than the Mets at that point, and they even still had head to head games remaining.    A lot of things still went wrong for the Mets from that point forward.  They didn’t finish above .500 and it’s extremely unlikely that keeping Beltran would’ve made much of a difference.  Still, it’s a pretty good example of how you never quite know what it’s going to take to make the playoffs.

That’s what I want from the Mets in 2012 while they get their payroll/revenue balance under control.   I’m not demanding they throw money around and attempt to buy a championship, but they need to keep the possibility of a championship open.  Put the team in a position so that if most things go right they can make the playoffs.  I’m not talking outlandish things like Ruben Tejada putting up a season like Jose Reyes.   Jose Reyes plays 140+ games.  Jason Bay has a season that splits the difference between his best years and his Mets years.  Johan Santana makes 30 starts and is a good, if not great, pitcher.  Pagan is more pre-2011 Met than 2011 Met.  Josh Thole, Lucas Duda, and Ike Davis progress and have good solid major league years at their positions.  Jon Niese takes a step forward.  Mike Pelfrey‘s numbers fall more in line with 2010 than 2011.   The bullpen guys that get signed, coupled with the ones that remain from last year, perform reasonably well and keep the games from getting away.  The biggest one of course is that the Mets stay reasonably healthy.

None of those things are that outlandish.  Some are even likely.  There are also good things and bad things that will be completely unforeseen.   David Wright could break his back again, or R.A. Dickey could decide to live on Kilimanjaro and back out of his 2012 contract.  One of the yet unsigned relievers could go on to have an unbelievable shut-down type year, and Mark Cohoon could be promoted from the minors in May and have a Rookie of the Year caliber season.  You just never know, so give it a chance and hope and root for more good than bad.  We’re certainly due.

My wedding was in October and fall themed.  One of the table names was the World Series table, and to represent it I had the famous picture of the ball getting by Buckner.

I don’t quite want to eulogize the Mets just yet.  While the chances of making the playoffs just went on the DL with little hope of returning this season, there is still baseball that’s being played, and out of the playoffs is not the same as no longer playing.  There will be plenty of time to deconstruct and over-analyze 2011 in the offseason, while we’re rooting against all those evil teams that made the playoffs.

So where do we direct that optimism that failed us in 2011?  For starters, the rookies and prospects that will get some extra time will go a long way towards being able to make informed decisions about the 2012 roster.  How feasible is Lucas Duda going to be?  Has Josh Thole rebounded from a poor beginning to the point that we don’t need to look at other options?   There are enough guys that will get some playing time to have a lot of options for the future.

The other place to direct the optimism is at the teams we hate.  The Phillies, despite the pitching, tend to look like they can be had if the opposing team’s pitching is on.  Given that they may have to face the Giants and the Braves, they certainly could be looking at an early exit from the playoffs if they hit a hot pitcher in a short series.  The Yankees look more well rounded than the Phillies, but they also seem to lack a certain depth that may leave them exposed if everything is not clicking when they reach the playoffs.

Personally I’m rooting for Carlos Beltran and the Giants over the Red Sox in the World Series.

Not trying to step on the toes of Metspolice’s ’80s week, but I came across these 1969 playoff ticket stubs (Not mine, I wasn’t alive) and figured the Thursday before the second half would be the perfect time to post them.  (And a much longer post I have planned complaining about FIP is lazily unfinished)

That’s the clinching game of the NLCS, which I’d forgotten was only a five game series.  Game 3 of the World Series, presuming they mean game 3 and not home game 3, would’ve been the Agee catch game and the first World Series game ever at Shea Stadium.

My in-laws owned a deli in Brooklyn in the ’70s.  One of the beers they sold was Rheingold, and a result they had this display board hanging in the deli, and then collecting dust in the basement until this weekend.  The bottom reads: “Enjoy Rheingold here, and at the home of the World Champions”.  Well, in 2011 that deli, and Shea, are gone, The Mets are no longer World Champions, and you cannot get Rheingold at their home. (Check out the Citi Field Beer List for what you CAN get)

My mother’s always sending me odd Mets/baseball cartoons she sees.  This one, and I’m not sure where it’s originally from, came in the mail the other day.  If you don’t know who Sisyphus was, here’s his Wikipedia page.  Basically it’s a Greek myth about a king who tried to outsmart Zeus and was punished by being forced to push a boulder up a hill for all eternity.  Just when the ball reaches the top, it would fall back to the bottom.

Presumably this is a statement on the Mets quest for a championship.  Everytime things start to get good, the boulder roles back to the beginning.  Perhaps it’s Sisyphus in the back of peoples’ minds when they call for a fire sale.  After all, Sisyphus doesn’t start pushing the boulder again when it’s only rolled halfway back down.  I have no idea why the Mets player is wearing #1. 

Perhaps the cartoon is only referring to the Mets of recent times, since they have successfully pushed the boulder to the top twice in their history.  Although perhaps the last time it was about to fall it got stuck on Bob Stanley and Bill Buckner. 

The cartoon might be better attributed to baseball as a whole.  To win a championship a team has to accomplish so many tasks, from signing and promoting the right players, maintaining health and effectiveness, successfully navigating a tricky 162 game season and finally three quick-shot short playoff series before the end and it can certainly seem daunting.

Every year I make a couple of prop bets on baseball before the season starts.  I just like to put my money where my mouth is and this year is no different.  So here are a couple of MLB Over/Under bets I made on Bodog. The player props aren’t out yet, so this is just the team. 

Tampa Bay Rays – Over 84½

I know they lost some guys, but they’ve also picked some up.  They can still pitch, and I don’t expect them to drop off as much as this.

Philadelphia Phillies – Under 97

I would like to point out that they lost Jason Werth in an offense that at times last year was non-existent and their best hitters are both a year older, and hurting.  Chase Utley still hasn’t played a game this spring.  Yes, they’ve got quite the cast of starting pitchers, but Hamels is up one year and down the next, Oswalt has struggled with back issues frequently and neither he nor Cliff Lee had absolutely amazing numbers last year.  The offense also has to score for them to win.  Halladay is still amazing, but 97 seems high.

New York Mets – Over 77

 Unless you’re predicting injuries and guys having bad years, it’s hard to imagine the Mets winning this few games. They won more last year, and I think they’re a better team, perhaps the best offense in the National League.   They’ve got a manager, they’ve got Reyes healthy.  They won’t be playing Jeff Francoeur even if Beltran can’t play 140.  I expect 2B, 1B and catcher all to give us more production, and it’d be hard for Jason Bay not to have a bounce back year.  I believe in Dickey and Pelfrey and I think Niese gets better in his second year. 

Baltimore Orioles – Under 76½

76.5? in the AL East? For a team that won 66 last season? They’ve made some additions this offseason, but I can’t see them reaching 77 wins.  This probably goes along with my Rays guess.  If I think they’re going to win more games, some of those will be against the Orioles. 

Atlanta Braves – Under 87½

The Braves reached 91 games last season, so this one’s tough.  I believe they overperformed a bit and I don’t have faith in their pitching depth.  They also no longer have Bobby Cox, for whatever that’s worth, and Billy Wagner had a great year for them and retired.  I could see them winning 86-87, but I think they fall just under.

New York Mets 35/1 to win the World Series

Obviously a long shot, but I make this bet every year.  Personally I think they have a better than 1/35% change

I believe it’s my job to try to spin Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies as not the end of the world. Start with this Hardball Talk article. Although it’s no secret that Cliff Lee is light years better than Kyle Kendrick or whoever ends up being bumped (Blanton via trade?) from the rotation as a result of the signing.

The article by Matthew Pouliot does a good job breaking down some of the specific concerns with the Phillies, particularly on the offensive side and in the bullpen. World Series, or even division titles, are not won in December. You still have to play the games. Things change drastically from year to year. Players who have been injured don’t stay injured. Players who are healthy don’t stay healthy. Players get older. Players have good years and bad. The Mets underperformed and missed by one game in 2007 and responded by adding the best pitcher in baseball..and somehow didn’t get any better.

The other argument is flexibility. Alderson’s motto so far has been to create flexibility for the Mets to be able to adapt and fix holes as they come. To sign free agents they need when they need them. Overreacting to an acquisition by the opposition and throwing out the philosophy two months in would be silly. The Phillies are now probably the definition of inflexible. Their payroll is so bulging people are reporting that they’re going to have to jettison payroll, probably by trading Joe Blanton. Their pitching depth is poor, so that if anything happens to their starting four, the dropoff is great. Their entire offense is old, neither corner outfield spot projects to come close to being above average, and they’ve lost Jason Werth.

The Mets on the other hand will have the ability, and desire, to add a player by the trading deadline to fix holes. They’ll be getting Johan Santana back. They’ll know if their underperforming core has raised it’s game. It’s entirely likely that the Mets offense will be better than the Phillies. While the Mets have rotational depth issues as well to start the season, Dickey, Niese and Pelfrey look to be very solid contributors. Sandy Alderson has repeatedly stated that he loves to make midseason moves, and he’s confirmed that he’ll have the flexibility to do so. Maybe this is the year the Mets go 40-15 down the stretch and surge into the postseason.

As the next couple of years go by, the Mets will get more and more flexible, while the Phillies will mostly be stuck with aging players making a lot of money. Cliff Lee certainly helps their chances in 2011, but it also helps accelerate their demise as repeat divisional champions.

The search for the next Mets general manager is (almost) over, and for now we don’t have a lot else to talk about.  Unfortunately the most important facts are hidden from us; the candidates’ plan for the future.  Looking at past history is certainly helpful, but what really determines who the best choice is is the game plan that person has to bring the Mets to the World Series.

Nothing will dispel the adjectives and storylines currently trending among Mets writers.  We’ve heard broke, dysfunctional, disastrous, cheap, stupid, tyrannical, clueless and many others.  Signing a general manager that’s perceived to be a good choice may quiet that some in the offseason, but that’s only a band aid. If and when the Mets announce their choice this week, the team won’t actually be any better.

This is why signing a guy as a figurehead of autonomy is not the way the Mets should go.  A quiet offseason does nothing for ticket sales or profits.  It’s the actions of the new hire that will do that, and even that’s unlikely until those actions, acquisitions and trades, put up statistics in regular season games and the Mets look like a winning club.  So we can speculate about who is the best choice, but until we see the decisions made, it’s not easy to know that.

Until the Mets are winning, consistently, all those stories people are writing about the Mets being dysfunctional will continue.  You’ll hear people crack jokes about Prevention and Recovery, joke about the Mets doctors, criticize Jeff Wilpon’s apparent involvement in the way things are done and reference Bernie Madoff any time anyone gets more money than is thought to be fair or the Mets don’t sign or talk to a player that someone thinks they need.

Outside of the fanatic fan, us bloggers and tweeters and hard-core followers, most people don’t even know or care who the general manager of the team is.  If the team is exciting, popular, and winning they will come to the stadium.  If it’s not, they won’t.  No GM is a savior; it’s going to take a lot of hard work from everyone all the way down to the 40^th guy on the extended roster to get this team back to respectability.  It’s not about names or faces or organizational structure but about winning.  So let’s get this general manager selected and into the office so we can start with the process of building our 2011 World Champion New York Mets.

Jon Heyman is reporting tonight that the Mets have decided on Sandy Alderson.  If this is indeed the case, my point stands: The team is not yet better.  Let’s take the next step and start interviewing smart, talented people to manage the team.  And let’s start keeping some things internal before blabbing it to the media.  Either announce it officially, or don’t tell Heyman, because telling him is as good as announcing it.