{"id":1619,"date":"2011-10-19T09:01:29","date_gmt":"2011-10-19T13:01:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/?p=1619"},"modified":"2011-10-18T18:46:44","modified_gmt":"2011-10-18T22:46:44","slug":"new-york-mets-winning-franchise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/2011\/10\/19\/new-york-mets-winning-franchise\/","title":{"rendered":"New York Mets: Winning Franchise?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With all the bumbling and incompetence attributed to the Mets, I started to wonder how they&#8217;d do in a purely random system. \u00a0If you simply decided the World Series champion based on a roll of a 30-sided die on Opening Day the Mets would win one out of every 30 seasons. \u00a0 The Mets have two titles in 50 years, but there weren&#8217;t always 30 teams. \u00a0So what does the math say?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-zJTgn3tvkM4\/TpzlYcayWyI\/AAAAAAAALuk\/9wr4z6Du5TI\/s300\/metsdie.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"mets die\" src=\"https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-zJTgn3tvkM4\/TpzlYcayWyI\/AAAAAAAALuk\/9wr4z6Du5TI\/s300\/metsdie.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"180\" height=\"180\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>For the first seven years there was a 5% chance to win, so they should&#8217;ve won .05 titles a year. \u00a0 As expansion happened\u00a0that .05 number drops towards the .0333 it is today.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>7 * .05 = .35 (1962-1968)<\/p>\n<p>8 * .04167 = .3333 \u00a0(1969-1976)<\/p>\n<p>16 * .0385 = .6154 (1977-1992)<\/p>\n<p>5 * .0357 = .1786 (1993-1997)<\/p>\n<p>14 * .0333 = .4667 (1998-2011)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>If you add that all up you get\u00a01.944 titles the Mets would&#8217;ve won in their history purely based on the roll of a die. \u00a0Statistically\u00a0they&#8217;re beating the odds, however they will fall behind the pace if they don&#8217;t win one in the next two years.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>How about just making the playoffs, based off the randomness.<\/p>\n<p>7 * .1 \u00a0= .7 (1962-1968, 10 teams, 1 spot)<\/p>\n<p>24 * .1667 \u00a0= 4 (1969-1992, 12 teams, 2 spots)<\/p>\n<p>.1429 (1993, 14 teams, 2 spots)<\/p>\n<p><em>4 * .2857 \u00a0 = 1.1429 (1994-1997, 14 teams, 4 spots)<\/em><br \/>\n4 * .1667 = .6667 (1994-1997, 12 teams, 2 spots)<\/p>\n<p><em>14 * .25 = 3.5 (1998-2011, 16 teams, 4 spots) <\/em><br \/>\n14 * .1429 = 2 (1998-2011, 14 teams, 2 spots)<\/p>\n<p>The Wild Card and divisional format makes it a little tricky, as the Mets technically aren&#8217;t competing for an NL West playoff berth. \u00a0 I don&#8217;t think even random odds should award them that. \u00a0 I did the math based on the two potential spots the Mets could win, and removed the two teams that would win the other two divisions. \u00a0 It&#8217;s not exact since if the two best teams were in another division the Mets could get in as the third best team, but for the sake of randomness I think it&#8217;s close enough.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Adding them up gives you 7.5096 playoff berths (9.4858 if you want them to try to win the NL Central) which is a shade off the seven playoffs the Mets have seen.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>What if just the playoffs were determined randomly? \u00a0The Mets actually do pretty good there.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>4 * .25 = 1 (1969, 1973, 1986, 1988. \u00a04 team playoffs)<\/p>\n<p>3 * \u00a0.125 = .375 (1999, 2000, 2006. \u00a08 team playoffs)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>They would&#8217;ve won 1.375 championships once they made the playoffs, suggesting that the Mets have made the most out of their playoff berths. ( They&#8217;re 9-5 in playoff series)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>So overall, the Mets aren&#8217;t a bad franchise. \u00a0They win their fair share of championships, make the most of their time in the playoffs, and get regularly, if not frequently play in October.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With all the bumbling and incompetence attributed to the Mets, I started to wonder how they&#8217;d do in a purely random system. \u00a0If you simply decided the World Series champion based on a roll of a 30-sided die on Opening Day the Mets would win one out of every 30 seasons. \u00a0 The Mets have &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/2011\/10\/19\/new-york-mets-winning-franchise\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;New York Mets: Winning Franchise?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[19,124,3],"tags":[2323,2964,2318,2320,2319,2317,2321,2322,14],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1619"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1619"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1619\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1627,"href":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1619\/revisions\/1627"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}