{"id":1837,"date":"2012-03-07T08:55:37","date_gmt":"2012-03-07T13:55:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/?p=1837"},"modified":"2012-03-06T23:02:46","modified_gmt":"2012-03-07T04:02:46","slug":"some-optimism-for-mike-pelfrey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/2012\/03\/07\/some-optimism-for-mike-pelfrey\/","title":{"rendered":"Some Optimism For Mike Pelfrey"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>\"Mike<\/a>Mike Pelfrey<\/strong>‘s FIP has actually stayed pretty steady over the last four years, and his xFIP was even steadier. The main difference being that he game up less home runs in 2008 and 2010. \u00a0 \u00a0 So the question becomes what was it that caused the home run rate to be lower in those years? \u00a0Was it dumb luck, or some adjustments on Pelfrey’s part? \u00a0Personally I think his xFIP staying the same is precisely what’s wrong with the stat. \u00a0Pelfrey clearly pitched better in 2010, particularly in the first part of the year, than he has since.<\/p>\n

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There probably still is some luck to it. \u00a0The margin of error for flying out instead of hitting a home run is tiny. \u00a0 Optimistically, Mike Pelfrey’s numbers in 2011 were probably at the far end of bad luck and it’d be pretty easy to see how even with changing almost nothing he’d probably have a better result in 2012. \u00a0Hoping for lucky bounces is not a good philosophy for a major league pitch to adopt however.<\/p>\n

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Pelfrey is working hard this Spring at his sinker. \u00a0This is something he admittedly struggled with in 2011, and harnessing it against should be a positive. \u00a0For one, it’s a different look than teams are used to. \u00a0Adding in a pitch provides a new wrinkle to the scouting report and helps keep hitters off balance. \u00a0Additionally, sinkers are harder to hit out of the park as they are harder to hit in the air. \u00a0So far the reports are positive on his feel for the pitch.<\/p>\n

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With luck and the sinker, Mike Pelfrey should be an improved pitcher again in 2012. \u00a0Throw in a likely improved bullpen and more of Pelfrey’s games should turn into Mets wins. \u00a0That only happened 12 of 33 times last season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mike Pelfrey‘s FIP has actually stayed pretty steady over the last four years, and his xFIP was even steadier. The main difference being that he game up less home runs in 2008 and 2010. \u00a0 \u00a0 So the question becomes what was it that caused the home run rate to be lower in those years? … <\/p>\n

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