{"id":3196,"date":"2019-07-25T10:51:37","date_gmt":"2019-07-25T14:51:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/?p=3196"},"modified":"2019-07-25T10:51:43","modified_gmt":"2019-07-25T14:51:43","slug":"time-for-the-mets-to-extend-noah-syndergaard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.ceetar.com\/optimisticmetsfan\/2019\/07\/25\/time-for-the-mets-to-extend-noah-syndergaard\/","title":{"rendered":"Time For The Mets To Extend Noah Syndergaard"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Noah Syndergaard<\/a>, if you\u2019re still reading about the Mets at this point, is a hot topic of trade rumors these days. These seem to be real rumors too, and not the clickbait ones SNY was peddling in Spring Training. While turning pitchers into prospects if you can get excess value is usually a good bet given the fragile nature of pitchers, particularly hard throwing ones that haven\u2019t had Tommy John<\/a> surgery, I think the better play is to extend him, not trade him.
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The Mets control Syndergaard for two more years after this one. He has a career 3.21 ERA and accumulated 17.1 fWAR so far. Speaking of WAR, it\u2019s at 2.7 this season. That\u2019s 21st in baseball. (Jacob deGrom<\/a> is 7th and Zack Wheeler<\/a> is 25th) The ERAs aren\u2019t as sparkling as last year, but at least with Syndergaard, a lot of that can be chalked up to two things. The juiced ball, and defense.
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Syndergaard\u2019s HR rate has spiked, as has literally everyone\u2019s with the way the ball is these days. He\u2019s on record saying he\u2019s struggled to get the same grip on it as he has in previous years. It\u2019s something he knows to work on, and sometimes does seem to have better success, and it\u2019s also something that might be corrected if there\u2019s any correction to the ball in 2020. It\u2019d be foolish to plan on that correcting, but Thor\u2019s still providing a lot of value despite it, and a correction can only help pitchers. You\u2019d also hate to pull a Daniel Murphy<\/a>, and trade him only to have the ball change in his favor afterwards.
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The other thing that\u2019s hurt Syndergaard is LOB%, the percentage of baserunners he strands. This is a stat that\u2019s mostly out of the pitcher\u2019s control, though obviously higher strikeout pitchers will tend to strand more runners. Syndergaard is 31st of qualified pitchers with a 23.8 K%, which is above the starting pitcher league average 22.3. Thor has the 10th worst LOB% of qualified pitchers at 68.1%, and Zack Wheeler is 5th worse. League average is 72%. Defense can kill this, allowing a lower percentage of balls in play to become outs.
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So Noah Syndergaard is a really good pitcher still, and could be even better. He\u2019s under team control. This is only his age 26 season. That\u2019s the kind of guy you want on your team. I don\u2019t know what Thor would be looking for in a contract extension. He\u2019s previously shown to be very cognizant of how underpaid MLB players are pre-free agency, so perhaps he\u2019s not willing to give away any of that. Still, if you can pay him more for 2020 and 2021 to buy 2022 and possible more, it\u2019d be hard to believe a trade package could be worth more than Syndergaard himself, barring a spring 2020 Tommy John surgery that cancels is 2020 and 2021 season, but that could just as easily happen to the pitcher the Mets would have to acquire to replace him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Mets should absolutely listen to offers on any player they have that can garner something big in return, and measure the odds of that making the team better both in 2020 and beyond, but it\u2019s hard to see the Mets getting a return that has a high-probability of out-performing Noah Syndergaard himself. Keep him, extend him and enjoy him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n


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