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Drop The Expectations For These Mets

Photo by CeetarYou’ve been hearing it all season long.  The Mets are talked about with some variation of the caveat “They’ve been exceeding preseason expectations”.  Adding this implies that those preseason expectations are more important than the results so far.   It seems to suggest that we shouldn’t take what we’re seeing seriously, because a lot of talking heads in the offseason didn’t believe and guessing that this is all an illusion rather than a progression helps protect their opinion of themselves.

 

Not everyone thought the Mets would lose 90+ games though.  I thought they’d be above .500, and I’m hardly the only one even if we’re in the minority.  Rich Coutinho is another who’s been very upbeat on this team and his coverage of the team has a been a lot fairer and balanced than many of his contemporaries.  The Mets aren’t exceeding our expectations, but are making good on the promise we saw in them.

 

Still, this was all March talk, and it’s now July and the second half.  The Mets ARE in contention.  They are winning baseball games and scoring a lot of runs and pitching well.  It’s well past time to stop talking about what we thought about this team in March and start thinking about what’s going to happen going forward.  We can’t pretend that it’s okay if the Mets fall short because we didn’t think they could do it.  That’s a defeatist position from the outset.  Baseball seasons are not linear progressions and no matter how much you believe in the process there is no guarantee that next year will be better than this year.  It’s time to stop thinking about the carrot down the road, unless you’re Sandy Alderson who needs to consider all possible carrots, and start fighting for the carrot that’s right in front of us.

 

The expectations for this team have changed; make the playoffs.  We can go back and make fun of Michael Kay and the others that predicted doom and epic disaster for this team later on.  We’re beyond the point of celebrating that we don’t completely suck, it’s time to push the bar higher.  We’ve got ourselves a pennant race, and there is no reason we should accept failure.  None.  Let’s sit on our couches, head out to Citi Field, see the Mets on the road and root and cheer and scream, and stress and enjoy over what’s going to happen over the next couple of months.  That’s what being a fan is all about.   Maybe they fall short, as most teams do, but don’t count them out before it’s over like so many did before the season even started.

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Rotation After All-Star Break

All-Star Break coming up after the Cubs series and I think it’s worth a thought about how Terry Collins will line up his rotation coming out of it.   There are a couple of things to consider here, including getting Dickey as many games as possible, the impending division match-ups, and the two pitchers coming off shoulder surgery.

 

So I’d definitely start R.A. Dickey the first game back against the Braves.  This also ensures he’ll pitch against division-leading Washington in the second series.  I’d then pitch Jonathon Niese and Dillon Gee.   Give Johan Santana the extra days off, which amounts to skipping a start, and have him start the series against the Nationals on Tuesday, 11 days after his start tonight.

 

No one’s asked this question that I’ve seen, and maybe it’s because no one dreamed Santana would throw this many innings, but I’m starting to wonder if the Mets would prefer he didn’t throw 200 of them this year.  He’s on pace for about 196, and this is probably the last opportunity the Mets will have to give him a little break before a pennant race.   Starting with the Nationals series, the Mets will play 20 games without a day off across five cities and three time zones.

 

Skipping Chris Young the first time through after the break gives him some rest as well, and allows the Mets to have Santana, Dickey and Niese lined up to pitch five of the six July games against the Nationals.

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Mets Stats Halfway Through

Going to mix in some pictures from last night’s fireworks night win over Philly here with random stats and projections at the halfway point.

The Mets are on pace for 88 wins on the season.  Last year the second wild card team would’ve been the Braves with 89.  Close, and that’s right around the level the Mets, Dodgers, and Pirates are at right now.

Continue reading “Mets Stats Halfway Through”

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Reinforcements Should Come Soon

The Mets have a big second half of July before the trading deadline.  They play nine big games against the two teams closest to them in the division.  If the Mets are going to make some roster moves, whether it’s by trade acquisition or minor league promotion, you’d like to seem the do so coming out of the break.  In fact, you do already hear rumors of the Mets being linked to possible relievers on the trade market.

 

There is still a lot of baseball to be played, but it’s important to put your best team forward when you’re playing the teams you’re probably going to be fighting for a playoff spot down to the wire.  A strong second half showing in July could get the Mets into first place and allow them to put the pressure on the other teams in the division.

 

The Nationals have talked about limiting Steven Strasburg’s innings this season.  That’s easier to do if they maintain a 3.5 game lead, but if the Mets can push them to the bubble, it forces them to make some hard decisions.  The Braves collapsed last year, and as this season comes to a close that could weigh on their minds.  Why give them a cushion to be comfortable with? Keep the doubt that they’re good enough fresh in their minds as the second half rolls along.

 

The flip side of this is R.A. Dickey.  The Mets have talked about the possibility of using Dickey on short rest and/or in relief if they need to.  Knuckleballer or not, he’s still 37 years old.  It’d be nice to not have to use this bullet, at least not too often, in September.  Getting into first and maintaining a playoff spot would allow them to not have to squeeze every last drop of production out of Dickey and keep him fresher for a possible playoff series.

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Hit The Break Running

The Mets have six more games before the All-Star Break.  It’d be great to see them hit it on a high note, and not coast against two bad teams in the Cubs and Phillies.  (Yes, the Phillies count as a bad team. ) They’ve seemingly had a habit of playing down to their competition a bit this year.

 

They are currently six games above .500 at 43-37.   They will not go into the All-Star Break with a losing record, but you’d like to see them finish the unofficial first half strong.  Winning four of six would put them eight games over at 47-39.  That should be the goal.  The Mets have two starts by Jon Niese and one by everyone else, and Niese has been cruising for a while now.   His 3.55 ERA is good for 24th of 62 qualifying NL pitchers, and a good .41 better than league average.

 

Ultimately the goal is to keep pace with the division leading Washington Nationals.  They play on the road at San Francisco and Colorado.  It’d be awesome if the Mets could gain a game on them to be within three of first place at the break.  They’ll play the Nationals six times in the second half of July, as well as the Braves three times.  As baseball pauses, it’d be nice to take stock of the Mets and see them within a broom’s length of first place.

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How To Start An Optimistic Morning

You’d be optimistic too if you started more mornings like this.  Coffee pot on auto-start so my quality Kauai coffee is ready when I wake up to put in my Mets travel mug to take with me to work.  That travel mug is one of the few Mets giveaways that’s held up well over the years.  I don’t remember when I got this one, but it’s gotten semi-regular use over the years.

 

Waking up Optimistically.

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The Mets Record After Traveling

It seemed to me that the Mets were having trouble with games just after a travel day, and Terry Collins mentioned something along these lines about last night’s game, so I looked up their schedule and crunched the numbers.

 

The Mets are now 5-12 in first games in a new city.  This includes trips back home but doesn’t include traveling north for Opening Day.  They bounce back in the next game to a 9-7 record that more closely approximates their overall record.  They’re 4-8 in first games on the road (including the Yankees away game) which means 1-4 in first games after returning home, and 2-5 in first games of road trips.

 

Is this statistically meaningful or is it just an oddity?  Is there something the Mets could do with their first game prep that could mitigate some of the travel fatigue?  Maybe something like spending more time perusing scouting reports and defensive positioning and toning down the physical stuff to conserve strength?  I don’t think the value of a good night’s sleep can be overstated.  Being rested and alert for a game in which the slightest delay in reaction time can be the difference between failure and success is not something you can fake.  (Especially without amphetamines)

 

I’d be curious as to what the record is for teams on the Monday following their appearances on Sunday Night Baseball overall.

 

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Chris Ray’s Baseball Bat Aged Beer

This is awesome.  It’s a beer aged on donated Louisville Slugger™ baseball bats.  On top of that all proceeds are donated to Operation Homefront, an organization that provides emergency financial and other assistance to the families of our service members and wounded warriors.

 

It’s made by Fremont Brewery in Seattle.  It was conceived by former Mariner’s pitcher Chris Ray (now with Cleveland), which makes it doubly cool.   According to Wikipedia this beer is, or was,  sold at Safeco Field which is triply cool.   If a Mariners fan out there could confirm, that’d be awesome.

 

Chris Ray is an avid homebrewer and is planning to open up a brewery with his brother down in Virginia called Center of the Universe Brewing. I think that’s awesome and would definitely drive down and check it out.

 

When researching this I discovered that the beer is actually listed in untappd for 5 different breweries.  Saint Arnold, Cigar City, 21st Amendment, and APerennial Artisan Ales also have a version.

 

 

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On Enjoying the Mets

Shannon at Mets Police writes up his feelings about why he loves getting to go out to Mets games and enjoying baseball.

 

It’s a nice enough warm summer night. Santana on the mound, friends, two beers (not eight), some food, 100 or so tweets, take some pics, maybe a blog post, a “free” t-shirt, #imwith28, a folk hero in Dickey, hanging with the tribe – all good things. All make me happy

 

Baseball is supposed to be fun.  Yes, the nature of sports mean some times are not as fun, but if you can enjoy the experience even bad losses have that silver lining. You still hung out with some friends, got some fresh air, and still got to see all the wonderful things about baseball from home runs to devastating curve balls and sparkling defensive plays.  Sometimes it’s the opposing team doing it.  Sometimes there is comedy in the errors.

 

Even if it ends badly that doesn’t erase the three hours you were having fun.

 

And that’s my main take away from baseball.  I’m going to note that the Mets are in the playoff picture even though it’s only June.  I’m going to note winning streaks and the division champion losing.  Because even if the Mets fall out of it on September first, I’ve had five months of happiness and enjoyment believing and rooting and hoping that the Mets will win tonight’s game.

 

Wouldn’t you rather look up in September and realize it’s been a fun ride and start really getting invested in whether they can take it home than keep looking for the trapdoors around every bend in the schedule?  Isn’t it more fun to be excited about a team even if it ultimately fails than to remain un-invested until the last moment?  Ike Davis may carry us over those trapdoors.  R.A. Dickey may steer us around them.

 

I respect that everyone has different criteria to really believe in a team, and that many people put up these huge walls between watching and truly believing because they’re afraid of getting hurt and being let down.  Some people race to the Internet after losing streaks or poor performances to proclaim that the Mets are what was expected of them in a way that seems like they’re almost chiding themselves for getting invested emotionally.

 

Getting invested emotionally is half the fun! This is the culture of being a sports fan.  This is what makes Jordany Valdespin‘s first career hit being a go-ahead 3-run home run against the hated Phillies so amazin’.  Or Dickey’s magical mystery tour.  Or Kirk Nieuwenhuis‘ emergence and Rookie of the Year campaign.   It’s the hopes and dreams that come along with these events.  The understanding that enough helpings of improbable wins, circus catches and league-leading 2-out RBI could make the Mets pretty damn good.  Deep down I think everyone knows this.  It’s probably part of the reason there is a ground-swell of support for Valdespin getting more playing time despite hitting .222 and playing mostly bad defense over Daniel Murphy hitting .271 while playing mostly bad defense.

 

The emotional thrill of some of Valdespin’s big hits coupled with his swagger seem to have resonated with Mets fans.

“I was thinking I’m the man,” Valdespin said with a slight smile after his home run of Jonathan Papelbon.

A little bit of confidence in the face of improbable predictions of making the playoffs in 2012 goes a long way towards making the season exciting.   It wasn’t just pure cockiness either, as Valdespin continued with a more humble appreciation of where he is.

“I’m just so happy,” he said, adding that his first phone call once he left Citizen’s Bank Park would be to San Pedro de Macoris, in the Dominican Republic, to his mother Maria.

“I want her to know this home run is for her. Because she’s the person who put me here to do this.”

Maybe Jordany’s mix of humble appreciation for being in the Major Leagues coupled with the cocky appreciation for the team’s big hits will be a nice story going forward.  Maybe Daniel Murphy shakes off his slump with a three home run week.  It’s not one against the other, as they’re on the same team.  I’m rooting for both of them.

 

I give the mainstream media a lot of grief for creating silly Mets-hating narratives, but creating narratives can be fun.   Don’t we love Dickey’s story?  Still, him climbing a mountain in the offseason does not actually make him a better pitcher or mean he’s destined to win 30 games this season.  That doesn’t change that it’s a fun story or that he’s a entertaining guy to root for.  The Mets being a ‘gritty’ team may not actually mean anything more than statistical randomness, but it’s still fun to get into it when the Mets are scratching out 9th inning wins against good pitchers, working counts to chase starters early, or executing bunt base-hits when the defensive situation calls for it.

 

No one knows where this Mets team is going.  Not me, not you, not sports radio hosts or national baseball writers.  Sandy Alderson does not know, nor does Terry Collins or even David Wright.  They believe though.  No one can predict the future, and no one has all the data required to give you odds.  The season so far is a huge example of that.  Everyone tried to tell you what would happen with Johan Santana, and pretty much everyone was wrong.

 

There are so many unpredictable things in baseball.  Things go right and things go wrong and some things are just awesome.  So instead of sleeping in the back of the train waiting for something to jolt you awake, enjoy the scenery and imagine the beautiful places the train may be taking you to.  You may not end up where you imagine, but I can guarantee you’ll see some amazin’ places along the way.   Believe it.

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The King In The North Of Queens

Confirmed: R.A. Dickey does indeed come to bat to the theme song from the HBO series the Game of Thrones.

 

What Dickey has been doing on the mound is so amazing it changes the narrative around the team and dominates the story line.   Even the usually wordy R.A. has run out of things to stay to describe the results he’s getting, instead saying he’s going to leave it to us to describe and just continue going out there and doing his work.

 

The Mets had just gotten swept, again, coming into this series with the Orioles.  This was the farthest thing from your mind watching the game.  There was no downward spiral, no wheels coming off the train, just R.A. Dickey dazzlingly darting knuckleballs around Oriole bats.  Wilson Betemit got a hit in the 5th and ceased our worry about the no-hitter, and Ike Davis got a grand slam in the 6th that ceased our worry about losing the game.  From there on it was pure joy.

 

The Mets have a legitimate Cy Young candidate as the season nears it’s halfway point.  They probably have the All-Star Game’s starting pitcher.  They have an MVP candidate and a Rookie of the Year candidate.   If they could find someone to compete for Rolaids Relief Man there would be nothing this team couldn’t do.