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Will You Second Guess Sandy Alderson?

The general consensus about the Mets new general manager is that he’s a great hire and going to do great things for the franchise.  That he’s capable of advanced analysis and really understands the game.  Sure, some fans are skeptical, but for the most part we’re happy that he’s leading this club.

He’s already joked that the honeymoon is over, but how long will we truly give him until we second guess his decisions?  Will we ever give him the benefit of the doubt or will we insist we know better if he chooses someone for the roster we disagree with?

Specifically, if Sandy Alderson watches Oliver Perez throughout Spring Training and determines that he can add value to this team by being on the roster, will we be okay with it?

I doubt it.  A recent poll on Metsblog suggested that more fans would rather Perez fail than succeed.  I find this disturbing.  Oliver Perez is on the Mets, and when players on the Mets do good, the Mets do good. The Mets doing good is what matters the most.

So while I certainly have favorite players and guys I would like to see make the club like Nick Evans and Daniel Murphy, ultimately what I want is the best 25 guys that will lead to the Mets having the best possible club to start the season.  If that means Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, or even Jose Canseco, I’ll root for them to do well.

March 4th, 2011 by Ceetar in 2011, Baseball, championship, Mets, Spring Training
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Optimism Is Not A Sin!

Last week Ted Berg wrote this piece about optimism in response to a different optimistic post by Patrick Flood. Scratchbomb retweeted it, noting that optimism is not a sin.  I like the phrase, and it’s good to see others jumping aboard the optimism bandwagon and joining the club (see the sidebar to join the Optimistic Mets Fan Club on Facebook), whether it’s just front office philosophy or not.
Optimism Is Not A Sin
Ted and Patrick wrote about optimism mainly in regards to the Mets offseason moves, and sabermetrics.  A lot of discussions these days get twisted into an “everything Omar did was bad and Alderson is a sabermetric genius and won’t make those same mistakes.”  Sure, Omar didn’t rely on advanced statistics as much as Alderson does, but as Ted suggested, the Mets aren’t in a position to lose 120 games.  There were flaws in this team, even without the injury issues, but the team is talented, promoted minor leaguers that have contributed and will contribute in the future, and is in a good position to add pieces in the future as need be.  Moves are not necessarily easier to be positive about just because they are made with a larger emphasize on advanced statistical analysis and the Chris Youngs of 2011 are looking to fill a much larger role than the bench spots Omar signed Jacobs and Matthews Jr to last year.

Sabermetrics or not, the Mets offseason was a collection of minor signings meant to represent depth and upside.  There weren’t many good or great players to be had at anything approaching reasonable value and the Mets roster wasn’t the swiss cheese of baseball rosters that many made it out to be.  Alderson hit the holes, and hit them hard.  Multiples options for second base and lots of bench guys to slot in at various positions around the field to provide suitable backups and provide depth should a regular need to sit out a couple of days.  A handful of pitchers who have potential, or have had a great year or two when they stay healthy to make up the two empty rotation spots, and a barrel full of relievers to make up a bullpen in what sounds like it will be a no-holds barred cage match in Spring Training for the last three or four spots.

Optimism is not a sin.  I try, and I’ll continue to try until the division is clinched, to make a case for how and why the Mets will win the division. The odds may be stacked against them and they may need more things to go right than would be considered normal luck but that doesn’t mean they it’s impossible, or that it’s useless to be hopeful and upbeat that they can happen, and that the Mets can win.

I truly believe that the Mets could have one of the best offenses in the National League, and I’m not going to be shy about proclaiming that.  Looking at the lineup, it’s certainly not a stretch.  There is a certain amount of recovery from some and growing from others needed for it to happen, but it’s not out of the question.  Closer to Opening Day I’ll make my official case for how and why I’m predicting the Mets will clinch the division on 9/25 against the Phillies.

Most importantly, the games still have to be played.  Every year there are dozens of pitchers that were great and revert to being pretty average.  There are rookies that take off in their second year to have great years, and players that overcome injury in previous seasons to have bounce back years. When those players bouncing back are perennial All-Stars, the bounce is that much higher.  There are surprises every season; no one knows what’s going to happen.  Even the predicted favorite from the offseason rarely makes it all the way to the World Series. Take the Sports Illustrated picks from last season; not even one supposed expert got either of the pennant winners correct.

So don’t get caught up in the negativity around the Mets.  There is nothing wrong with thinking some of the Mets signings will have a good year and stay healthy, that Ike Davis could blossom into an excellent player or that Reyes and Beltran in their walk year put up numbers close to their career norms.  With better coaching and leadership it’s a pretty good bet that the Mets will get more out of their talent than they have in years past.  Remember: Optimism is not a sin!

Update: Here’s a post by Brian DiMenna who’s joined the Optimistic Mets Fan Club.

February 22nd, 2011 by Ceetar in 2010, 2011, Baseball, ceetar, championship, Spring Training, World Series
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Is It Time For a New Generation of Mets?

As I sit here wondering if the Mets will extend Reyes’ contract, and how I hope David Wright and Jose Reyes spend their long successful careers only with the Mets, I started thinking the bridge between different Mets generations.  In my eye, generations are roughly defined by the ‘core’ or the handful of top players on a team that stay together for a couple of years.  You had Mike Piazza, Edgardo Alfonzo and John Franco leading us into David Wright,Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran.  There was an overlap, or bridge, between these two generations as some of them played together.  One midseason story line was even when Wright would, or should, move ahead of Piazza in the batting order.  What if the bridge between generations was not so obvious?
We are Mets fans because we love the Mets.  We love the Mets because we are Mets fans.  It’s emotional, fanatical, and probably illogical, but it’s what we do.   We have an emotional connection to the team, and to the players.  We all know that you “root for the laundry” and that it doesn’t matter who is wearing the uniform because if it says “Mets” on it, we want them to succeed.

There is talk out there about breaki

ng up the Mets core: If the Mets haven’t won with Wright and Reyes, maybe they are part of the problem and not the solution.  How would the fanbase, the one that includes the millions of fans not on Twitter or in the blogosphere, react to the Mets rebuilding?  Would fans actually be excited for a team that had Tejada at shortstop, Zach Lutz at third, an outfield of Lucas Duda, Fernando Martinez and Kirk Nieuwenhuis with a rotation led by Niese, Gee and Meija? Especially if it took that group 2-3 years to really start to show any talent, if they do at all.  Perhaps Mets fans are too used to a group of players getting only one or two shots at the postseason and now mentally preparing for the next groups opportunity.  

Fans may enjoy a prospect or two, especially one that’s doing well, but watching a group of players lose consistently while going through the growing pains of trying to be a great major league baseball player is not what sells or excites fans.  Half of those guys probably won’t stick around long term in the big leagues, certainly not with the Mets, and they’ll make mistakes and boneheaded plays and go through slumps that will not enamor them to fans.  We love the team, but rooting for lovable losers is not what being a Mets fan is about.  For every fan that loved Ty Wigginton while he

was a Met there are a hundred or more that love Benny Agbayani because he was a part of a run of success.  Rustyjr of The Real Dirty Mets Blog asked for reader submissions of their top 50 Mets of all time, and has been counting down the tabulated results.  If you’re paying attention you’ll notice that the list hardly follows any statistical reasoning.  Ray Knight comes in at #37 for example despite his numbers across a mere 254 games with the Mets not being anything amazing.  Perhaps his baseball-reference sponsor has some insight:

“What a worthy ’86 Series MVP! He embodied those championship Mets. Who can forget his fire, his jubilation scoring the winning run on Buckner’s error?”

We cling the players that come through for us in big moments.  Endy Chavez made an unbelievable catch in a key moment of the biggest Mets game of the last decade.  For his Mets career he was at best a serviceable 4th outfielder and an amazing defensive replacement, which aren’t usually the guys that go down in history and get remembered.  Endy’s catch is immortalized in the left field gate at Citi Field and in the fan walk outside, and it’s one of the few parts of the building that has never been criticized by fans.  We form bonds and connections with these guys, and while winning makes them all look nicer, sometimes it’s just the emotion and effort of one player or series that makes us love them.  Endy’s catch was in a losing effort and Robin Ventura’s memorable Grand Slam Single was the last win the Mets would get in that series.


Would fans really pay to see a team of prospects?  My guess is no.  If the Mets fail to put a winning team on the field again in 2011, it won’t draw any more fans in August and September if they trade off every piece they can at the trading deadline.  While the removal of players that we have a negative association with may sound like a good idea, It doesn’t actually create more interest in watching that players replacement.  Sure there might be a boost in attendance if a fire-balling starter is doing well, or some rookie outfielder is smashing home runs all over the place, but those things will be passing novelties as most Mets fans find entertainment elsewhere that season.  Some cit the early 90s as some of the worse Mets seasons in history.  The ‘86ers retired, moved on, got into trouble and were no longer Mets. There were a couple of flashy prospects here and there that didn’t really pan out.  There was some brief excitement with Generation K, which shows us that a philosophy of “We might be pretty good in a couple of years!” is not a selling point.  There was no clear bridge to the next eneration and a lot of Mets fans in the 90s noticed that there _was_ still winning baseball in New York.  I wonder what the younger Mets fans that are in love with Wright and Reyes would do if they were no longer Mets in the next year or two?

February 10th, 2011 by Ceetar in 2011, 2012, Baseball, championship, Citi Field, Mets
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Is Rex Ryan Jose Reyes’ new best friend?

Rex Ryan has taken the Jets, and Jets fans, for a ride these last two years.  He does things differently than most sports leaders, particularly in the NFL. He’s emotional and brash.  He tries to tell it like it is and portrays extreme confidence.  He’s not afraid of a little trash talk.  His players seem to love him, and Jets fans do as well.

Now that football season is mercifully over and we turn our attention back to baseball I can’t help but wonder how this will affect Jose Reyes.  Reyes is one of those players that has been criticized by some for being too playful, for celebrating too much, or for his cheery dances after home runs. The guy’s really just enjoying playing baseball, and it’s part of what makes him an energetic and enthusiastic leadoff hitter but some criticize anyway.  I wonder if watching Rex Ryan these last couple of years will lessen any of the ill will towards Reyes.

Some of the media will criticize, especially since criticizing the Mets is popular in the media these days.  Talk radio hosts will still bring up the topic just like they bring up Ryan’s antics.  Even Jets supporter Michael Kay was critical of the way Ryan was talking about Tom Brady and he has no love for the Mets.  It does seem to matter less to the fans than the media, and even non-Jets fans may be more tired and annoyed at the endless discussion of this off the field stuff than the actual team itself.  Reyes will still get his share of criticism.  If he slumps, reporters will point to his dancing, or blame his clapping when he hits a double.  They’ll talk about how he’s playing for a contract, if he’s not extended in Spring Training like I expect, and should grow up and act mature.  Reyes will be the longest tenured Met and many will demand that he step up and act differently.

Reyes will always be Reyes.  Carlos Beltran once sat him down in Spring Training, when he was getting concerned that he should be listening to these analysts and acting differently, and told him to be himself.  Reyes is one of the hardest working players on the team, and his enthusiasm and energy is an asset, not a problem.  As long as he prepares himself for each game, and plays to the best of his extensive abilities Reyes can dance after home runs, or cheer when he gets a hit.

Rex Ryan has shown us that there isn’t one way to act; that there isn’t a specific formula or schema required to be successful in professional sports.  The best that anyone can do is try their hardest, and be themselves.  Hopefully Rex Ryan’s two seasons in New York will remind Mets fans that a little bit of enthusiasm and bravado is not a bad thing.

February 8th, 2011 by Ceetar in 2011, Baseball, championship
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Do You Trust Sandy Alderson?

It seems most of us do. Sandy is a smart guy, and he’s a lot closer to the process than we are. I understand that second guessing the team is almost as much fun as actually watching them play, but it’s time to take a little step back and trust in our newly hired general manager and his front office.

The idea is that just because we think something is obvious, that a decision HAS TO happen, doesn’t mean it does. We are not the general managers of this team, we are fans. As fans, the number one thing we want to see is the Mets to play winning baseball on the way to the World Series. We do not know how to achieve this, and we certainly don’t have a better idea of it than Sandy Alderson.

It’s time to stop demanding that Oliver Perez has to go. We do not know better than Alderson on whether or not Luis Castillo can contribute to the 2011 Mets. We don’t know that Backman/Valentine/Mazilli/Stengel is the absolute perfect fit to manage this team. We don’t know how attainable certain free agents are, how much we can afford to give them, or what the best fit for the team is.

I’m not saying we can’t talk about it. It can be fun to debate free agents acquisitions, it’s an interesting exercise to write up mock 2011 batting orders. Digging into advanced statistics to look for bargain pitchers can be a great learning experience about the game. It makes sense to doubt that Oliver Perez will get his fastball back up or be a contributing pitcher.

Last year nearly every free agent signing or trade was met with comments from Mets fans along the lines of “Why didn’t we at least offer X?”, “That guy would’ve been perfect at Citi Field!”, “Henry Blanco? Well gee, the World Series is a lock now!” Many of these comments were unfair last year, and the same holds true today. Sandy has a plan, and we’re going to have to trust in him to execute it. Trust in him not to put losing players on the field, and to start building a roster that can compete year after year.

November 3rd, 2010 by Ceetar in 2011, Baseball, championship, Mets
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Signing Alderson Does Not Mean the Mets are Suddenly Respectible

The search for the next Mets general manager is (almost) over, and for now we don’t have a lot else to talk about.  Unfortunately the most important facts are hidden from us; the candidates’ plan for the future.  Looking at past history is certainly helpful, but what really determines who the best choice is is the game plan that person has to bring the Mets to the World Series.mets

Nothing will dispel the adjectives and storylines currently trending among Mets writers.  We’ve heard broke, dysfunctional, disastrous, cheap, stupid, tyrannical, clueless and many others.  Signing a general manager that’s perceived to be a good choice may quiet that some in the offseason, but that’s only a band aid. If and when the Mets announce their choice this week, the team won’t actually be any better.

This is why signing a guy as a figurehead of autonomy is not the way the Mets should go.  A quiet offseason does nothing for ticket sales or profits.  It’s the actions of the new hire that will do that, and even that’s unlikely until those actions, acquisitions and trades, put up statistics in regular season games and the Mets look like a winning club.  So we can speculate about who is the best choice, but until we see the decisions made, it’s not easy to know that.

Until the Mets are winning, consistently, all those stories people are writing about the Mets being dysfunctional will continue.  You’ll hear people crack jokes about Prevention and Recovery, joke about the Mets doctors, criticize Jeff Wilpon’s apparent involvement in the way things are done and reference Bernie Madoff any time anyone gets more money than is thought to be fair or the Mets don’t sign or talk to a player that someone thinks they need.

Outside of the fanatic fan, us bloggers and tweeters and hard-core followers, most people don’t even know or care who the general manager of the team is.  If the team is exciting, popular, and winning they will come to the stadium.  If it’s not, they won’t.  No GM is a savior; it’s going to take a lot of hard work from everyone all the way down to the 40th guy on the extended roster to get this team back to respectability.  It’s not about names or faces or organizational structure but about winning.  So let’s get this general manager selected and into the office so we can start with the process of building our 2011 World Champion New York Mets.

Jon Heyman is reporting tonight that the Mets have decided on Sandy Alderson.  If this is indeed the case, my point stands: The team is not yet better.  Let’s take the next step and start interviewing smart, talented people to manage the team.  And let’s start keeping some things internal before blabbing it to the media.  Either announce it officially, or don’t tell Heyman, because telling him is as good as announcing it.

October 26th, 2010 by Ceetar in 2010, 2011, Baseball, bloggers, ceetar, championship, Mets, World Series
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The Mets’ Wheel of Time Turns

The Wheel of Time turns, and Mets seasons come and pass, leaving games that become legend. Legends fade to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again. In one Age, called 2010, an Age yet to come, an age long past, a press conference started in Flushing. The conference was not the beginning. But it was a beginning.

Okay, the quote barely makes sense, but the cyclical nature of the Mets history reminded me of Robert Jordan’s epic series. The Mets are again faced with a reboot of sorts, shedding some dead weight and redirected the franchise that has run off course.

Shea Goodbye

Shea Goodbye

So far I feel Fred and Jeff Wilpon said the right things.   I’m sure some of it’s probably saying what we want to hear, but they’ve given the right answers and seem to have the right goals and motivation.  I’ll take it.  Words are all we have right now, until after the World Series when we can start signing guys, and even that’s nothing until we play, and win, some games.

This season wsn’t a total waste for me.  The Mets made a lot of strides in appeasing and interfacing  with fans and bloggers. They created a Twitter account and started interacting. They invited a group of bloggers ‘into the fold’ and gave us an opportunity to stand on the field and talk to players during batting practice. They’re aware that there are a lot of intelligent people that spend a lot of time focusing on the Mets and thinking about them in detail.  Giving us that opportunity this year was an amazing thrill and one I’m extremely thankful for. It also gave me a chance to meet some of the fellow bloggers that I’ve been interacting with for a while.

You may have noticed, or not, that I’ve been posted a lot less.  It’s not the Mets, although them being mostly irrelevant for a month didn’t hurt, but me.  I’m getting married this weekend and things have been rather hectic.  The Mets did not reward me with a wedding present of a NLDS game to miss, and David Wright did not respond to my wedding invitation . I probably won’t be updating much over the next couple of weeks, but I suspect once things settle down I’ll get right back into it.  I’ve got some stuff planned in the offseason including some sabermetric debates that I’ve been putting off as well as some trying to match up the title of the blog with the 2011 season and the direction of the team.  In other words, a couple of spin posts trying to justify believing the Mets can and will win the World Series in 2011. (Hey, it’s more fun than predicting doom and gloom. Aren’t you tired of that?)

October 7th, 2010 by Ceetar in 2008, 2010, 2011, Baseball, bloggers, ceetar, championship, Mets, Shea Stadium
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First Place Mets Play For Respect

This series against the Phillies, while not that huge a deal in the overall season, is a pretty big deal for the Mets. The Mets have been disrespected and dismissed by much of baseball, and yet they stand in first place.

Most feel the Phillies are the “better team”, but this series is the first opportunity to show that the Mets can hang with them. It goes a long way towards instilling confidence in the players if they could go out and beat Philly this weekend. It will remind Philly, even though it’s still early, that the Mets are not just going to go quietly into the night this year. It will remind fans that the Mets are a serious fun team to watch and will be in the conversation all season. It will remind the national media, as the weekend games are both on National, or semi-National, tv, that there is another team in New York that’s going to be talked about this summer.

Win these games and fans will start coming back to Citi Field. People will feel good about the team. It would go a long way towards erasing some of the feeling of 2009 and hard luck. It will extinguish any real assertion that the Mets are at best a wild card team. The Phillies are not a powerhouse. Their pitching is suspect outside of Halladay and one pitcher does not make a team. Playing this team hard and gaining a little swagger about themselves is the first step towards what can be a championship season for the New York Mets.

April 30th, 2010 by Ceetar in 2010, Baseball, championship, Citi Field, Mets
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Letters to the NL East, Part 5/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 0 of 5. (part 0, part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4)

AngryMrMet

Dear New York Mets,

Welcome to the what I like to joke is the second half of the ’09-’10 season.   But it’s time to put the past behind us and move on.  Nothing that happened before today counts for anything, and it’s time to step it up and start taking control of your own destiny.

Last season was a disaster; Let’s not talk about it anymore.  It’s now 2010 and even though we’ve got a couple of nagging injuries, there is hope.  Reyes will be back shortly, Murphy by the end of the month, and hopefully Beltran not too much after that.  The pitchers are healthy and while we’re missing Beltran for too much time, the rest of the offense is actually really capable.  There’s a lot of pressure on the pitching staff right now, but from all accounts you’ve got a chip on your shoulder and are working hard to succeed.  Relish the underdog role and punish the opponent.

Citi Field is amazing and all the changes look great.  Now make the experience inside a memorable one and make me forget that there is a Big Apple Brews or Shake Shack anywhere.  I’ll be there today early enough to get all that stuff out of the way before settling in to watch Santana pitch.  It’s time to get some confidence and win some games. It’s time to talk about things like wins and losses, actual performance, and stat lines, without trying to predict and project what you guys are going to do.  The division is ripe for the picking, and it’s time you stopped disappointing us and rise up and take it.   Let’s rock Citi Field like it’s never rocked before.

The predictions for your team are meek, but don’t let that bother you.  It’s time to surprise some people.  By June I expect to hear a collective, begrudging “I think this division is the Mets after all” to be uttered by the supposed baseball experts.  I expect you to make it so that most Philadelphia blogs will be talking about the Eagles by August.  The Mets have never closed two consecutive decades without a World Series title, and I see no reason to start the trend now.  In fact, they’ve never had a decade where they did not even go to the World Series, so let’s make that the starting point.

Your lifelong fan,

Optimistic Mets Fan

(I’ll be at the game today, but some that aren’t will be gathering in the Real Dirty Dugout irc chatroom of which you can find a link over on the right)

April 5th, 2010 by Ceetar in 2010, Baseball, championship, Citi Field, Mets, World Series
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2009 World Series: Bad News

As everyone has made light of, this World Series sucks for a Mets fan.

Mets fans are pretty split on which side they’re rooting for, if you can even call it rooting.  Funny thing is, you see plenty of Yankees fans saying that we should be rooting for them, but I don’t hear any Phillies fans making that same argument.

From Mets

Personally, I’m rooting for the Yankees to lose.  I don’t get any joy or any more grief no matter what the Phillies do, but the Yankees winning would really irk me.  It’d blow my theory of them being cursed for knocking down the house that Ruth built, it’d give even more fuel to the “Jeter’s the best player ever” arguments you hear, as well as the constant reminder about how much they’ve won.  Their eight rings to the Mets two would start to get a little insurmountable, whereas three for the Phillies wouldn’t be as rough.

From Mets

Some say that the cracks in Yankee Stadium will open up and swallow both teams into Hell.

Some compare it to 1999 although despite how much it sucked losing the Braves, the Braves fans were never in the equation as hated rivals.  Others suggest we ask who the Yankees were rooting for in 1986 and root accordingly.

Personally, I’m just not watching.  I get no joy out of watching either team, and if you factor in all the game-delay tactics, the 50 million pitching changes, and the pop-fly home runs, I’m just not sure it’s going to be fun to watch anyway.

I’ll be watching the Islanders at the Rangers Wednesday night.

October 27th, 2009 by Ceetar in 2009, Baseball, championship, World Series
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