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Optimism in the Air

We are now closer to 2013 Mets baseball than we are to 2012 Mets baseball. Yesterday was the Mets Baseball Equinox and now we march towards a new dawn with anticipation. The Mets are undefeated this year. They have not disappointed us yet. Young players still have the potential stat sheets and scouts predict for them and no one’s gotten injured since last year.

 

This clearly doesn’t mean everything is rosy, but Mets baseball approaches and we’ve got miracles and just plain baseball fun on the horizon. No need to fret over how it’ll ultimately end up, let’s just enjoy whats coming.

 

Hey, even the NHL looks like it’ll sneak some games in to entertain us while we wait.

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Disappointment Over A Good Mets Trade

There is no doubt that the trade Sandy Alderson is in the process of pulling off is a good one. We still aren’t aware of some of the finer details, but the Mets are adding two top prospects, John Buck, and a third minor leaguer, for R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole, and a minor prospect. Dickey is one of the best pitchers in the league, and he still may be a top of the line starter for a couple of years, but the Mets are adding players that may still be having a positive impact on the team six years from now. It’s certainly possibly they may not flourish, particularly the much farther away Noah Syndergaard, but the probability favors the Mets in that regard.

 

The problem is the immediate future. Travis d’Arnaud, the catcher the Mets are receiving, will probably be up to the majors very soon, if not on Opening Day. John Buck will likely be on the team in the interim, and probably shift to a backup role when d’Arnaud gets called up. Together it’s unlikely they provide as much value as R.A. Dickey, and that means a team already under .500 is probably taking a step back before pushing forward. That’s disheartening for most fans, whose number one concern is the current roster of players on the field. Many of us would rather root for the guys we have to succeed, particularly when they’re great ones like Dickey, than reinvest emotion in new guys that are merely promising to be great. Ultimately though what the fans want doesn’t matter because winning is what brings in the fans, the attention, and the money. It’s not out of the question that d’Arnaud plus the pitcher the Mets replace Dickey with is worth more than Dickey and Thole would’ve been, but it doesn’t seem like a good bet for 2013 nor the type of improvement the Mets need to climb out of 4th place if it does happen.

 

That’s where the disappointment comes in; this trade does not make the Mets better in the foreseeable future. Sure, it raises the probability that they are better down the line, but it’s also important that this player is going to be cheap and under team control for a long time. Fans can forgive losing star players, whether homegrown ones or adopted ones, when the team placed in front of them excites and captures their attention, but so far I’m not so sure the 2013 version is in position to do that. Especially if we don’t get an impact bat for the outfield and instead go with Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and a platoon of Mike Baxter and 2013’s version of Scott Hairston. We heard a lot about the present value of contracts with the David Wright negotiations, and that concept applies to winning seasons too; a winning season in the present is worth more than one in the future. Good process only gets you so far, and there are plenty of inherent risks between now and then that could sabotage the plan. A clearly improved 2013, even if it ultimately falls short, could create the excitement that draws fans in, fans that will continue to come in 2014. The message lately has felt like it’s not worth investing in this team yet, which keeps ticket sales and revenue down; revenue that could make the job of creating a winner in 2014 easier. It’d be unfair to assume Sandy Alderson’s going to take the rest of the offseason off at this juncture, meaning he could still improve the team and the outfield, but it’s hard to see the type of players coming that give this team a “If everything breaks right” chance at the playoffs.

 

As always with the Mets these last three years, the money question is always looming. Partial sales, which included Sterling money invested in the Mets, helped pay off loans and seemed to at least point the Mets in the right direction. Allusions were made to a payroll in 2013 at or above 2012’s number. The deferred contracts and negotiations seem to point in a different direction, although it is still possible that Sandy Alderson spends most of that money on players that make the Mets better. It’s never a good idea to expect much direct truth from a general manager, that’s not their job, but given the message that the actions are sending it feels pretty hard to do more than guess at the plan. The Mets appear to be in a holding pattern and I just hope they get clearance to land before they run out of gas.

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Captain Wright, All-Time Met, Forever Met

Lots and love and support for Shannon Forde at the fundraising dinner last night. 1000 people that have crossed her path in the 18 years she’s worked for the Mets showed up to show their support, and not least among them Sandy Alderson and Jeff Wilpon.

 

Perhaps that’s why the news of David Wright’s re-signing didn’t come down and get finalized until the middle of the night; they were busy with something more important. It doesn’t matter which day of the offseason it gets done, and now that it’s seemingly done we can rejoice and celebrate what’s likely to be one of the Mets best players, perhaps the best, ever.

 

I’ve been calling for them to name Wright captain for years, and while it’s never been a thing of huge importance it’d be nice to see Wright’s new blue jersey come with a ‘C’. (I’m not at home right now, but we’ll get Wright photoshopped in a blue jersey with a ‘C’, I promise) I’m not asking him to take on a new role, or give him new responsibilities. Naming him captain is simply another way to celebrate him, and we should make a point to celebrate our best players when they’re on the field performing for us.

 

Wright is a Met. He’s always been a Met. He will always be a Met.  60 years from now Wright will be showing up at Alumni events and our kids and grandkids and beyond will be there to cheer him. They’ll compare him to their new heroes, and the third basemen that come after him. Players that likely haven’t even been born yet.  Wright will recount stories about playing with Cliff Floyd, Mike Piazza, Carlos Delgado and others. He’ll reminisce about at bats against legends like Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez and all the superstars in the league now plus the ones that will emerge over the next eight years.  No other Mets player will ever wear the number five again. He’s destined for the left field wall, and maybe one day the Hall of Fame and even a statue. There could be a Wright plaza at the next stadium.

 

What we have here in front of us is one of the Mets all-time greats, in his prime, to root for for years to come. This is greater than wins and losses, greater than owners and uniform colors and ticket prices. We’re going to talk about these times, this next legendary Met, for decades and decades. Enjoy it. Believe it.

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Opening Day Ticket Price Hike A Troubling Sign

The Mets spent more time and energy and research on ticket prices than you did. Their research suggests this is the best way to maximize revenue and push customers into committing to packs and getting more people into the ballpark for the other games. That doesn’t make it suck any less. The problem is it’s Opening Day and the demand is still high.

It’s one thing to say you’re annoyed with it in November and not going to buy, but once Spring Training kicks in and we hear about people planning to finally get out to the park again and see live baseball many people are going to be looking to find tickets. I’d be surprised if the stadium looks less than 95% full.

It’s a business first for the Mets, and it’s hard for me to get too up in arms at any specific tactic to maximize profit on the high-demand times, but it doesn’t bode well for the future. It’s not just baseball either, or just the Mets. Fans in this same market complained and moaned about personal seat licenses in the NFL, but the Giants and Jets both sold a ton of them. Movie tickets are going up, and if you think $63 for 3-4 hours in the sun watching baseball is rough take a look at the prices of some of the Broadway plays.

Revenue sharing money from MLB is going up too, and it’s only going to lessen the percentage of revenue that ticket sales is. As that happens more and more teams are going to make decisions to milk every last dollar out they can, with no regard to actual turnstile attendance. Take a look at the Marlins fire sale. The Marlins flat out don’t care about the fans, but the franchise itself is making a ton of money from other sources. Actual fans in the park aren’t at the top of their priority list.

It’s unfortunate. Many fans remember the days before the late nineties when payrolls skyrocketed causing ticket prices to follow suit when going to a baseball game was one of the most affordable activities in the city. As prices have rocketed, fan salaries haven’t followed suit and the economy crashed creating less disposable income in general. As a result everything is crazy expensive. I can’t ever legitimately afford to sit in the good seats at a game in any of the other three major sports, and every year it seems I get further and further away from the Mets field as well.

Dynamic pricing was designed with this Opening Day situation in mind. It was always a way to maximize the revenue of the top games, no matter when they happen in a season and was never really meant to lower prices to bargain basement levels to get the place packed. The Mets know, as everyone in sports knows, that take advantage of the few high-demand games you have, and let winning take care of packing the park for the other ones.

Unfortunately for us, the baseball market in New York is huge. The big Mets games are going to sell, and as they do better and better, those games are going to sell too. There’s no boycott that’s going to work. Clearly you shouldn’t back down from voicing your opinion at some of these frustrating aspects of fandom, but know that the only person you hurt by not going is yourself. It’d be great if we could drive market value, but the truth is we don’t.

I sucked it up and bought Opening Day tickets. I want to be there, it’s pretty much a holiday in my eyes, and I’m not yet willing to miss it. Maybe I skip another game or two depending on my situation, but I’m going to check my stubbornness at the gate about the pricing and go. Maybe I’m just resigned to the idea that everyone is out to take every last cent from me, but once Opening Day gets here I’m going to be excited no matter what I paid.

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Ron Darling: Best Announcer in the Playoffs?

We know Ron Darling is a great announcer as Mets fans, having been privy to his talents on SNY since 2006. He creates great insight into the game as a former pitcher, and isn’t afraid to tell you what he thinks.  We’ve witnessed this frequently this past season with his remarks about how the Washington Nationals handled Steven Strasburg.  Unlike other former athletes turned broadcaster, Darling often goes above and beyond simply crediting players for ‘being players’ as if he’s part of some secret club that knows better than we do. He imparts knowledge like he wants us to have it, not like he wants us to know HE has it.

I was watching the third game of the Giants and Reds NLDS, and he offered a bit of analysis that blended an appreciation of advanced shifting with a thought to the game at hand and how long-term trends might not apply the same way to individual samples. The Giants were shifting against Joey Votto to pull like many teams do for left-handed hitters with power. Ron Darling noted that Votto had returned from knee surgery this season and may not be 100%. He was questioning whether or not Votto could put the same force into his front leg to generate the power and pull that the Giants were positioning for. Maybe, he mused, they should use the injury information to adjust the defensive positioning despite what the long term trends say.

Joey Votto had not hit a home run since returning from the surgery, but I have no idea if this theory has any statistical merit in Votto’s case or in knee injuries at large. That’s not really important here because Darling wasn’t suggesting that the Giants forgo the shift because it’s over-thinking or bad form or anything, he was proposing that there was another input that the Giants should take into consideration. Perhaps the player they were shifting against wasn’t quite the same player that had generated all the data they were using.

Baseball is a game with a ton of statistical data that can be used to make educated guesses about players and teams and overall results, but it’s also a collection of small sample results that can vary wildly based on any number of random inputs. A player simply waking up with a headache could throw off the projections for one afternoon. This is why the very best teams will succeed by being aware of the overall trends and still be able to make snap decisions in the moment to adjust those trends based on the fluctuating nature of many of the factors. It’s part of what makes Ron Darling a great announcer. As a pitcher he studied and learned a lot about baseball, and he’s brought that into the booth with him, and as a scholar he appreciates the studious work other people have put in as well.

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Reporters and Analysts are Only Guessing

Hope everyone’s on the recovery path from Sandy. I finally got my power and heat back yesterday afternoon, and managed to fill up my car with gas, so I guess it’s back to business as usual here.

 

We’ve got General Manager meetings coming up in baseball and we’ve passed the point of options being picked up and exclusive negotiating windows with expiring contracts, so it’s open season on free agents.  There isn’t a ton to write about that’s not speculation and rumor, but there are outlets that are obligated, or feel obligated, to put out posts and columns.  Sometimes I suspect less is more when it comes to news and reporting, but that’s a thought for another time.

 

Remember that there are always surprises, that things aren’t always what they seem, and that unexpected trades and acquisitions happen all the time. No team is more active than the Mystery Team.  So try not to take anything you read too seriously regarding the hot stove season. When there are no games being played it becomes very easy for one well-read writer to muse about a player being a good fit for a team and it to catch wildfire and be talked about all over the world. The Internet is often one big game of telephone when it comes to these things.

 

One person could write about Cody Ross being a good fit for a team, and before you know it there are a dozen blog posts breaking down how the lineup will look with him in it. The shear quantity of talk seems to lend credence to acquisition even though the team in question might not even have talked to the player’s agent.  There are hundreds of different ways a GM can put together a roster, and it’s never exactly how anyone guesses.  Although if you want to take your own stab at guessing, Amazin’ Avenue’s AAOP would be a good way to go.

 

Some people enjoy this speculation and enjoy copying spray charts for a slugger onto his projected new team’s ballpark, rearranging their divisional predictions, and comparing lineups across the league.  They see it as a giant jigsaw puzzle that can be assembled in many different ways, and take joy out of finding the best picture. Don’t take this enjoyment for anything more than the time-killing exercise that it is.  Taking offseason speculation too seriously is how you end up pissed at a general manager or owner for not acquiring a player 10 years ago that they may not have even had a chance to sign.

 

Specifically with the Mets, no one really knows what Sandy Alderson is planning for this year, or the future.  It’s not hard to find articles about keeping Wright, trading Wright, offering him lots of money and only offering him just enough to hedge against failure.  You can find columns basically asserting that the Mets will trade R.A. Dickey anytime from now through the trade deadline and also mentions of signing him to multiple years beyond this one.  You can find columns suggesting the Mets will make big moves, if not big signings, this offseason, and others telling you to expect roughly the same team back.  Although I suspect the people telling you the Mets won’t do anything and you should ignore anyone that’s going to make more than two million are just trying to narrow the focus of the work and speculation they have to do this offseason.

 

To me, the only thing certain about the Mets in 2013 is that we can’t be certain about the Mets in 2013.

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Do YOU Want to High-Five Captain Shorts?

Then hit the batting cages, work on your knuckleball (which by the way, R.A. Dickey would teach you if you win this auction to benefit Shannon Forde) and start working off some of that excess fat and then place a call to Sandy Alderson, get signed to the New York Mets and be on the team when they win a game at home.

 

Or if that sounds like too much work, Read the Apple is running a kickstarter to make a Captain Shorts t-shirt.

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Hope Shines For Shannon Fundraiser Dinner

If you’ve followed anything in the Mets community in the last month or so you know Shannon Forde, the Mets director of media relations was diagnosed with stage IV breast cancer.  Shannon’s been a good friend and contact to us Mets bloggers, and we all wish her the best.

 

There is a charity dinner coming up, on November 1st, to help Shannon and her family deal with this horrible news and the expenses that go along with it.  Ron Darling will be the emcee, and there will be all sorts of auctions and autograph opportunities. There is a related Meet and Greet session that includes Matt Harvey, Daniel Murphy, Willie Randolph, and Super Joe McEwing  have been added to the special meet and greet line up that also includes Gooden, Strawberry, Franco, Ojeda, Alfonzo, Leiter, Ed Charles and Ed Kranepool.  Open Bar. Trickey Tray. Dancing, etc.

 

Addionally there are auction items for awesome events like batting practice with David Wright, a pitching session with R.A. Dickey, behind the scenes tours of popular NY-filmed sports shows, and many other cool things.

 

If you can’t make it, you could always donate directly.

To make a monetary donation, please mail check payable to “Hope Shines for Shannon” which can be mailed to
C/O DTRF P.O. Box 3145, Point Pleasant, NJ 08742

 

or click on the Paypal link at the bottom of the fundraiser page.

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What’s Going On In Metsopotamia?

Well, The Mets last two good center fielders had really good games in the playoffs last night.

 

The 7 Line is having a Mets pumpkin carving contest.  I don’t usually carve my pumpkin until the night before to keep it fresh, but I might have to make an exception this year.

 

Rumors fly about how fast the Mets may or may not look to extend David Wright and/or R.A. Dickey.  I think there’s a rumor for every possible permutation.  I’ll just wait and see what happens.

 

Some Mets prospects are playing in the Arizona Fall League.  I don’t pay close attention, but you can check out Metsminorleagueblog.com for specifics.

 

Speaking of Arizona, it seems like the Diamondbacks are willing to consider trades for just about any one of their outfielders.  Given that the Mets desperately need outfielders a flooded market gives the Mets a larger supply to choose from.