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Will I Be Lonely At The Citi Tonight?

I’m going to Citi Field, courtesy of a non baseball-watching friend who got two tickets for donating blood. (I actually haven’t figured out whom to give the spare one to) The Mets are virtually out of it, merely at .500, and 8 full games away from even sniffing a playoff spot.  I’m not going to say “It’s over” because stranger things have happened, but until they rattle off a streak better than 4-3, even I’m not going to be hanging on every game like it’s a pennant race.  So will anyone be out at the game tonight? Someone suggested I should try the dunk tank and pretend it’s Oliver Perez sitting on it.  I’ll explore the free giveaways at the Verizon Studio, and see if the seasonal beers have changed to fall yet.

Will the lines at Shake Shack be short?  Or will they be longer as more people are willing to walk away from watching the game for a great burger?

Will the crowd get into the game if it’s a good game?  Or will they mostly be disinterested and focus on booing guys like Castillo?

Will people leave early, even if it’s a close game?  If the score is 6-2 can I expect the stands to be virtually empty by the 9th?  Will they be mostly empty even if it’s 4-3?

Personally I’ll be looking forward to a good pitching matchup (Johnson vs. Dickey) and looking forward to Dickey reaching the minimum innings required to qualify for the ERA list, on which he’d be in the top 10.

I’m watching the game from section 337, row 4.  That’s Left Field Landing, and somewhere I’ve never sat before.  Always enjoy the new vantage points, and row 4 probably isn’t overly obscured like the back rows of that section are.  I’ll also probably roam at random taking pictures of everything.  If you see a guy with a camera pointing at odd things wearing a Mets Hall of Fame cap and a Wright last season at Shea jersey…probably me.

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I Predict an Oliver Perez Sighting Tonight

I know no one wants to hear it, but I’m suspecting we may see Oliver Perez tonight, and definitely before the end of the road trip. Here’s a couple of reasons why:

1. He hasn’t pitched in ages.

2. reports that he’s “looking better” (I don’t know how this can be when he hasn’t actually faced batters)

3. The Mets have already not lost this series, and 2 road wins a trip is normal. Could be thinking it’s house money at this point?

4. Bullpen tired from yesterday.

5. B.S. about missing-Frankie need to get more value from everyone else.

At this point, with the Mets virtually eliminating and sending subtle signs that they’re very aware of this, it might be time to try to get Perez into a state where you might be able to raise his value such that an opposing GM may consider trading for him if they’ve had a couple of beers. It’s in the Mets best interest to play him since his value cannot go down, but if they could tease some modicum of success out of him down the stretch, or in Spring Training next year, they might be able to trade him for a long-shot AAA player or a down on his luck reliever.

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Depressingly Early Football Season and Long Term Mets Plans

My posts have been lacking lately. Part of that is certainly that the Mets don’t produce much to be optimistic about right now, but I am also having a lot of computer issues involving memory and hard drives and multiple reformats of my laptop. I spend most of my time at the computer cursing at it and telling it get going; which is much like how I feel watching the Mets. I was holding out hope as things spiraled out of control with the Mets as is befitting the title of this blog, but my hope is dwindling as the math suggesting the Mets will make the playoffs, even if they were to morph into a powerhouse overnight, grows bleeker and bleeker.

They can still make the playoffs. They won’t, but the possibility does still exist. A strange confluence of events including David Wright not having another slump, Jason Bay coming back and accumulating all the stats that he would need to reach his career averages for the year in the final month, Carlos Beltran shaking off the rust/age/injury and playing well, Castillo putting up career norms for OBP and getting driven in regularly, would have to happen first. Some of these will happen, but it does not seem like it will be enough to matter.

My personal opinion is that the Mets have subtly given up on the season, but they do have a long term plan in place. Promoting the unready Tejada and the possibly unready Fernando Martinez suggests as much. I think the Mets should probably take the next step and start interviewing managers, if not GMs. Take the two weeks to figure out who should manage this team next year, and give them a month to get acclimated with Wright, Reyes, and the rest of the 2011 incumbants so they don’t have to do so in Spring Training. I think it would help the long term goals. One reason not to do this immediately is if the Mets plan on dumping Omar Minaya, in which case you’d want to take care of that before the manager situation, and you may just run out of time to do this all sequentially. Tonight is the night the draft picks have to sign by, so it’d be a perfectly opportunity to make a move forward after that. Give a new GM time to analayze the team and it’s holes and create a offseason strategy. Start the ball rolling, hint at the long term plan, and bring some more of the kids of up in September and I bet Citi Field won’t be quite as empty as some are predicting.

It’s sad that I’m aware that the Giants are playing a preseason game tonight. (Against the Jets too) I prefer years where I don’t even know the Giants record until late October. Or at least late September. I prefer football games as an appetizer to a big Sunday Night Baseball game featuring the Mets and a pressure filled push towards a playoff berth. (results aside)

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Some Applicable Quotes For the Mets

It’s only after we’ve lost everything that we’re free to do anything.”

Deli81 Chuck Palahniuk quotes (American freelance Journalist, Satirist and Novelist. b.1961)
“Success is how high you bounce when you hit rock bottom.”
-George Patton
Why do we fall? So we can learn to pick ourselves back up.
Looking down on disappointment only blinds you for what’s ahead, you can always benefit from a loss as long as it is a lesson to you.
How achievest thou something meaningful in thy life when thou art very deeply wedded to thy urgly and miserable past?
The only way to prevail is to hit rock bottom.  After all, you need something to push off of to fly high.
“Life’s real failure is when you do not realize how close you were to success when you gave up.”

-Deli81 Chuck Palahniuk quotes (American freelance Journalist, Satirist and Novelist. b.1961)

“Success is how high you bounce when you hit rock bottom.”

-George Patton

Why do we fall? So we can learn to pick ourselves back up.

You’d have thought they’d have learned already..

Looking down on disappointment only blinds you for what’s ahead, you can always benefit from a loss as long as it is a lesson to you.

How achievest thou something meaningful in thy life when thou art very deeply wedded to thy ugly and miserable past?

referring to Perez and Manuel/Minaya/Warthen etc? Need to put the past behind them.

The only way to prevail is to hit rock bottom.  After all, you need something to push off of to fly high.

I thought 2009 was rock bottom..

“Life’s real failure is when you do not realize how close you were to success when you gave up.”

This is my favorite.  Seems very applicable to baseball and the many tiny adjustments that a great player makes throughout a season. “game of inches”

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You Will Go To Citi Field on Sunday

hof_hat_300x250The Mets Hall of Fame game is Sunday.  Before the game they’re having a ceremony and inducting Frank Cashen, Dwight  Gooden, Davey Johnson, and Darryl Strawberry into the Mets Hall of Fame. There are still tickets available.  There are still TOO MANY tickets available.  Shannon over at Mets Police has been all over this, and rightfully so.  It’s one thing if the mid-level seats that are priced above what’s affordable for many people don’t sell out.  It’s quite another if the Promenade section doesn’t.

The lack of Mets history in Citi Field was one of the biggest complaints about the place last year.  More so than even Pelfrey letting Jody Gerut hit the first home run in the place.  Even if you only go to a few games this year, this should be near the top of the list of options.  It’s honoring one of our greatest teams.  Great players who we enjoyed rooting for for many years and the leaders who helped get them there.   True Mets.   It doesn’t matter what they did off the field or later in their careers in lesser leagues.  They did something for Mets fans that can never be erased, and to miss out on that for petty reasons like inflation, personal feelings about current players or administrators, or the organization or park not being precisely how you like it is just sad.  It’s one thing if it doesn’t fit into your schedule, your personal finances, or you’re flat out busy that day, but it’s quite another to make a specific effort NOT to go.    If you’re going to stop celebrating the best parts of the Mets history, what are you going to celebrate?

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Wainwright the Best Opponent for the Mets Tonight?

Maybe Adam Wainwright is the perfect pitcher for the Mets to face tonight.  It’s the perfect matchup of “Something’s got to give”.  The Mets haven’t scored in ages, and Wainwright hasn’t given up any runs in ages.  It’s mathematically improbable for both of these to continue for another nine innings, and that should bode well for the Mets.   Maybe they rise to occasion of fighting a top pitcher, start scoring some runs, and give Johan Santana some help in the July Pitcher of the Month competition.

If we’re getting poetic about it, I’m going to predict that the deciding runs of this game are scored via a grand slam home run by Carlos Beltran off of an Adam Wainwright curveball.

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Could This Be The Mets Final Test?

Could this be the final test for the Mets?

I hope it’s not, but if they fail it may mean the figurative end to their season.  The next two weeks are very critical, and the first order of business is just flat out winning games.  The Mets have played very well at home this year, and they’ve got three games against the tough Cardinals, and then three against the not so tough Diamondbacks.  There can be no excuses: They have to win games.  Omar’s job, provided he still has one, is to bring in reinforcements after that.  The trading deadline is next weekend, and the Mets are in need of some help.  No longer can they play waiting games or decide they don’t like the price.  When you drop as many games in the standings as the Mets did, you no longer have the luxury of pretending you’re not desperate for help.

After the Diamondbacks the Mets again head on the road.  It’s this road trip that could prove to be critical, as they face the Braves and the Phillies.  The Braves have been amazing lately, and the Mets have been making just about every other ballpark look to them like Turner Field did around the turn of the century.  By falling so far back, it’s become imperative that they make up ground by beating the competition in front of them.  Losing and falling further behind could very well be a death blow.

The Mets have been extremely streaky this year and they really are much better than they’ve shown lately.  If they take that streak and turn it into a hot stretch where they’re again a team that’s tough to beat, they could climb right back into this race.  There is still a lot of baseball to be played and August could be a good month for them.  After they play the division rivals on the road, they come home for the Rockies and the Phillies before going on a road trip that one would describe similarly to the Cleveland-Baltimore trip they took that they were successful on: they play the Astros and the Pirates.  Another home stretch with the Marlins and the Astros provides plenty of time to fight their way back into this race before facing the Braves again at the end of the month.

Can the Mets ace this next test and fight their way back into relevancy again?  I don’t know.  Neither answer would surprise me, but I’m certain they’re capable of it.  They often say you need to get hot at the right time and if the Mets can capitalize on that by beating up on the division rivals, as the Phillies did in 2007, they can certainly win this division.

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Oliver Perez’s “Changeup”

Isn’t this changeup, by definition, not a changeup?

This changeup defies its definition
This changeup defies its definition

And that seems to be the crux of the problem with Oliver Perez.  How is gameday classifying that pitch as a changeup?  I understand Oliver Perez mostly sucks this year.  It seems like pitch selections like this is the main reason, and I don’t see how they didn’t have him working on this while he was in rehab, or how they promoted him again without fixing it.

I’m no Pitch F/X expert, but I know that Perez should be throwing this pitch slower.  He throws his fastball around 88-89, which you hope would build up over time, but regardless, you have to throw the changeup no higher than 80mph if this is the case.  He does have a slider that’s in the 70s for the offspeed part of his game, but he’s stopped throwing the curve entirely this year.

Oliver’s biggest problem does not seem to be his velocity, although you would like that to be higher.  His mechanics have never been good, which accounts for a lot of fluctuation at times in his pitches and may be the cause of that missing 2mph on his fastball.  Still, the biggest issue here seems to be pitch selection and game plan.  We know he’s billed as a head case, but I’m sure those accounts are exaggerated.  What he should’ve been working on is selecting his pitches better and setting up hitters.  If he’s capable of throwing so many pitches, slider, curveball, fastball, 4-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter, he’s capable of setting up hitters to look foolish.  He’s got enough command of those pitches that he can keep batters from sitting on the 88mph fastball.

It’s not enough to just say he’s a lost cause and dismiss him.  You can’t excuse Dan Warthen or Rod Barajas because Ollie’s a head case.  He’s had success before, and coaching/selection is their job.  How is Oliver Perez still doing things like throwing a fastball and changeup at the same speed to the same batter?  Am I missing something?  If you’ve got some advanced knowledge of pitching/pitches that you can share, please pass it along.  I find it hard to believe that gameday/fangraphs is just guessing at what pitches he’s throwing or that he’s throwing them by accident.

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What Joe Benigno Will Talk About Today

Today will be non-stop “The Mets have no grit” type discussions.  The people that don’t pay attention and think Beltran is soft will come out of the woodwork.  The clubhouse divide comments will come back.  (Michael Kay actually took care of that already today, thanks..) Overly dramatic, pessimistic Mets fans will be all over these things.  There is usually Yankees praise involved.  I can pretty much predict Joe Benigno’s show from 2-6:30 on WFAN tomorrow.

“Write it down, the Yankees are going to go out and get Roy Oswalt.  After seeing Hughes take a step back last night, and Pettitte on the DL, there is no way, NO WAY bro, that the Yankees don’t get this guy.  And what will the Mets do? Nothing.  What a pathetic game last night.  I don’t care what the numbers say, Beltran needs to sit down until he’s up to speed.  They made a mistake bringing this guy back so fast.  I know Francoeur isn’t hitting but he’s too valuable as a leader to mess with the chemistry.  And no one else is hitting anyway!  At least Francoeur you know you’re getting good defense out there.  I really think the Mets made a mistake bringing Castillo and Oliver Perez, and don’t get me started on this bum who should be pitching for Japan right now or something.  All we heard about was how good the chemistry was on this team and then you throw these malcontents back into the mix and look what happens!   And what is Omar doing?  Will you make a trade Omar? What are you waiting for?!”