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Did Wednesday’s Lost Cost the Mets Millions?

Animated Gif Money (18)How much money did Wednesday’s loss cost the Mets?  The different between 15-13 and 16-12 is huge, as is bouncing back from a bad series with the Phillies with a winning one against a lesser team.  The Mets after their awesome home stand had a ton of good will brewing in the fan base, but they threw it all away with a miserable road trip.

Even if the Mets split the road trip, I think most fans would still be feeling good about the team.  They’d buy tickets, they’d head out to Citi Field to see the Giants, and more importantly, to see the Mets.  The Nationals come in again next week, and who really wants to see the Nationals if the Mets are playing poorly?  (Besides die-hards like me, who’s probably going to two of those games)

So, how many fans are going to now stay home for this stretch of games? 5000 a game? 10000?  The Mets haven’t been drawing well, it’s not yet summer, and they’re coming off some bad play. Between ticket prices, parking, concessions, and souvenirs the Mets are going to end up missing out on a lot of money that they may have gotten just off one more win.

I’m sure the Mets are aware of this.  They know what the perception of the team is, and they have access to their own records and attendance figures.  While the answer isn’t as simple as a player move, or a bad lineup, you wonder where the Mets would be and how we’d feel about the team if they’d cut Gary Matthews Jr, Frank Catalanotto, or Fernando Tatis for Chris Carter, Nick Evans or Jason Pridie.  How much better would we feel if Jerry Manuel rested relievers better, didn’t rest Castillo for Cora one game in each of the last three series, or didn’t stick with guys like Gary Matthews or Mike Jacobs when everyone else realizes they have nothing to offer?

So the Mets are aware of the problem, and know some of the problem areas.  It seems unlikely they’ll wise up and get a decent manager in here, but I’d definitely bet on the roster being shaken up a bit.  I think the Mets trust a guy like Carter over some kind of center field replacement like Jason Pridie or Jesus Feliciano, but I’ve been wrong before.  Maybe the Mets are leaning towards sparking excitement through young players, such as they did with Ike Davis when Chris Carter may have done.  Could it be that Fernando Martinez could be the starting centerfielder on Friday against the Giants?

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First Place Mets Play For Respect

This series against the Phillies, while not that huge a deal in the overall season, is a pretty big deal for the Mets. The Mets have been disrespected and dismissed by much of baseball, and yet they stand in first place.

Most feel the Phillies are the “better team”, but this series is the first opportunity to show that the Mets can hang with them. It goes a long way towards instilling confidence in the players if they could go out and beat Philly this weekend. It will remind Philly, even though it’s still early, that the Mets are not just going to go quietly into the night this year. It will remind fans that the Mets are a serious fun team to watch and will be in the conversation all season. It will remind the national media, as the weekend games are both on National, or semi-National, tv, that there is another team in New York that’s going to be talked about this summer.

Win these games and fans will start coming back to Citi Field. People will feel good about the team. It would go a long way towards erasing some of the feeling of 2009 and hard luck. It will extinguish any real assertion that the Mets are at best a wild card team. The Phillies are not a powerhouse. Their pitching is suspect outside of Halladay and one pitcher does not make a team. Playing this team hard and gaining a little swagger about themselves is the first step towards what can be a championship season for the New York Mets.

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The New York Mets Are Not A Wild Card Team

Two words that have no place in Mets discussions: “Wild Card”

unoWild

I’ve heard it a bunch of places, even  Ron Darlings.  The Wild Card is not a term that needs to be mentioned right now, about a team that’s in first place with 18 games still to play against the biggest challenging team.  The Wild Card need not be mentioned until August at the earliest.  The Wild Card should never be the goal.

The division is not out of the question for the Mets.  There is no doubt in my mind that the Phillies will not run away with anything.  They are a team that won 93 games last year, and the Mets are at the very least 10 games better, and the Nationals are better.  The Phillies play almost 25% of their games against those two teams, so it’s likely that the increased talent would shave a couple of games off the Phillies win total.  The Phillies have a couple of guys injured, and aren’t all that improved over last year anyway.  They had guys have career years last year, and career years often don’t get repeated.  They’re even picking up guys off our scrap heap, which doesn’t say a lot for their pitching or infield depth.  The Mets were criticized for having no depth and having to go with Wilson Valdez and Nelson Figueroa last year, yet the Phillies are doing the very same thing this year.

Anything can happen in a baseball season.  Nothing is decided in the offseason, or in April.  However, it’s going into May soon and the Mets are standing in first place.  I said earlier last week that the goal I would like of the Mets is to get through this home stand with a chance to play the Phillies for first place this coming weekend.  After some excellent baseball games it’s looking like it could be the Mets playing the Phillies to help lengthen their division lead.

Ron Darling had a great comment during a replay of David Wright’s bases clearing triple.  As he was rounding second, Ron said “And right around here is where the monkey jumped off his back.” It’s a good start along those lines, and if the Mets could beat the Phillies, play the Reds and return home solidly in first place it’d go a long way towards erasing 2009.  A lot has been made of the attendance figures at Citi Field so far, but I think a lot more of us would start making the trip to the stadium if they returned home conquering heroes and reclaiming their rightful place atop the National League East.

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Omar’s Advanced Statistical Analysis

“Mets GM Omar Minaya poses ideas to him, often via email, and Baumer will run the numbers to see if they’re true. He said he’s one of 8 or 10 people who can offer their two cents when a decision is being made, such as a trade or in free agency.”

 Jenny Vrentas/The Star-Ledger is referring to Ben Baumer, the Mets statistical analyst.  We’ve known the Mets use, as do most teams, advanced statistics in evaluations of players for trades and signings and even drafting.   They hinted at it being one of the reasons they chose Jason Bay.  It provided evidence that the free agent pitchers on the market this offseason were not worth it. 

It’s worth noting that despite some criticism, the Mets do in fact use a variety of tools to evaluate players.   I have plenty of issues with some of the popular advanced stats out there, from UZR to WAR to FIP.  I’m working on a post that specifically outlines my concerns, but there is still value to looking at these numbers, especially to reinforce an opinion you might have on a player you haven’t seen that much of. Especially for a general manager of a baseball team.

For all the criticisms of Omar, and those fans that feel he just has to go before this team can win, this article suggests he might not be as clueless as you think.

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Pitching Wins

Pitching wins.  That’s the common refrain around baseball, and there is a lot of truth to it.  So while many Mets fans may have been upset that the Mets offense is struggling, even against position players in a 20 inning game, I’m ecstatic that the pitching has been so good.  It’s too early to tell for sure on the starters.  Some velocity numbers seem suspect, but static numbers do not tell you everything.  Pitch counts, and pitch speeds, are something that many managers and baseball experts are still working on.  20 years ago these things were barely more important than who won the airplane race.  (On a side note, I kinda miss the airplane race.  It was so perfect for the Mets, since Jets from LaGuardia fly over constantly.) Let’s give some guys a couple of starts to build up arm strength and get the early season jitters out of the way before we judge what they’re capable of for the season.

If the pitching is going to be this good, the Mets are going to rise to great heights.  Santana is going to win games; I really don’t think there is anything to worry about with him.  He’s had a little less velocity than we would like so far, but he’s also fresh back from surgery, and a slow starter.  He did get up to 92 by the end of his appearance Saturday, and I hope it’s just a matter of getting his arm strength up to mid-season form.  You could probably say the same thing about Oliver Perez, who looked masterful the night before.  Perez mixed and matched pitches and location and speeds like a pro.  Like Santana.  He was _nothing_ like the Ollie we know.  He wasn’t good Ollie, or bad Ollie.  He was just a pitcher doing his thing.  There wasn’t wildness, or getting unfocused.  He was pitching, not throwing, as the adage goes.

There’s not enough to say about Pelfrey.  He’s amazing.  He leads the team in ERA, in wins, even in saves!  He threw a masterful game in the low-oxygen Colorado game, threw a bullpen early Saturday and then still demanded the ball from Manuel in the 20th inning for the save on Satuday.  If there’s anybody on the team you’re ready to say “Throw out 2009, it’s 2010 now and that’s what counts” with, it’s Pelfrey.

Now, the offense hasn’t been great.  However, the offense is also underperforming.  Bay, Pagan, Castillo, Reyes are all better players than they’ve played so far, and there is little reason to think they won’t get better.  That will win games. They’re 4-7 right now and once the offense clicks they could easily rattle off a winning streak.  Once we get Murphy back, or Murphy comes back and doesn’t improve and Ike shows up, the offense will get a boost as well.  Like Murphy or not, he’s not the automatic strikeout that Jacobs is.

A lot hinges on tonight.  Every other pitcher has shown that they’re going to put up some good games this year.  Even Niese’s quality start is perfectly acceptable out of the 5th guy.  Maine is the only holdout, and after scrapping the changes that didn’t work this spring, he’ll revert to what’s given him success in the past.  It might be too soon to expect him to have that nailed down and for him to pitch a gem, but a competitive game over six innings or so that gives the Mets ample opportunity to win the game would be a great start.

The offense will work itself out, but if the pitching can do what it’s started to show it can do, this 4-7 record will be a mere slow start in a great season.

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Upcoming Expections For The Mets

I understand the season has been hurtful so far.  I also understand that even the worst teams in baseball don’t play this badly, and that they will win more games.  So how do we shake this feeling of doom?

YaGottaBelieveSign

I’m pretty confident in Pelfrey throwing a good game tonight.  I think what he worked on this Spring is going to help a lot, he’s getting less distracted on the mound, and has that cocky confidence that this team needs. 

You never know with Perez, and I worry that the stupid tinkering that Warthen did with Maine was also a failure for Perez, but I think the Mets will have a chance to win the game tomorrow when he pitches. 

Santana is due to bounce back and win one on Saturday.  He’s Johan Santana after all.

Then Maine, who I think gets a huge boost being out from under Warthen’s shackles.  Doesn’t mean he’ll be successful though, especially the first time going back to what’s worked for him, but the numbers are there if you choose to believe. (those numbers being a 4-1 2.75 ERA May last year before surgery in June.  Those numbers being that he was hitting 93 last year, and was 91-92 in the return from surgery in September)  I’m hoping being able to be comfortable will be like a weight off his shoulder and he’ll do just fine.  I’m certainly not ready to believe Maine’s career is over.

Maybe they drop one of those, which would put them at 5-7.  Then they go home for a 10 game home stand where if they go 6-4 they’re back at .500 and go to Philadelphia, a park the Mets love to hit in with hopefully the offense finally clicking, and knock the ball, and 2009, out of the park.

That’s the formula to shake these bad feelings away.  If the Mets can get to Philadelphia near .500 and play well there against an injured Phillies team and assert, even if it’s just for one series, that they’re the better team it will go a long way to returning the confidence to this team, and to it’s fans.

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Optimism After Six Games

The Mets have played six games against the bottom of the division and lost the four games I didn’t attend.

There are still some good things to take from the season so far though, and you can read about them in detail in my post for The Real Dirty Mets Blog.

The fans at the park so far have been pretty pathetic, in terms of their booing Santana and failure to really get into any of the games and actually cheer like Mets fans used to.  Greg over at Faith and Fear in Flushing recaps this issue rather nicely.

Patrick Flood wrote a nice piece that really drives home how much we’ve missed Reyes.   This piece represents another reason why I think it was despicable of Jerry Manuel to bunt Reyes over on Saturday.

It seems even the beat writers are stirring about it being time to fire Jerry Manuel, something I’ve long felt was necessary.  For better or worse I don’t believe the Mets will do anything before May 3rd after the first series agains the Phillies.

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Opening Day 2010

Today was Opening Day at Citi Field.  A day filled with optimism. (Unless you’re one of the fans booing Oliver Perez, the Mets trainers, Luis Castillo or Jerry Manuel)  The day lived up to the hype and the Mets won as they usually do on Opening Day.  I met with a surprising amount of other bloggers and the Blue Cap Army to tour the Mets Hall of Fame and Museum which was a lot of fun.  Hopefully I’ll see a bunch more of them this season.  (My next game is Friday.)

The important stuff:

Johan pitched great.  He wasn’t exactly lights out, but he was excellent and held the Marlins to 1 run in 6 innings.  The bullpen pitched excellently.  It was just Nieve and K-Rod this time, but still good way to start.  David Wright got his first home run in his first at-bat, and it was just amazing.  Wright’s poised to have an amazing MVP caliber player, and getting that first home run out of the way so that no one can start doubting him was a great jolt to the Mets fans.  It said, “This season is going to be good.  We’re not going to fall on old clichés and you’re not going to be able to use the phrase ‘here we go again.’” Bay and Barajas both had big hits, to help break the ice so to speak.  More importantly, the Mets were aggressive.  They played an aggressive game, made the Marlins have to make plays (they didn’t), and played hard.  There was even a suicide squeeze attempt which was great to see.  So even though I think he’s still the worst manager the Mets have ever had, I do offer kudos to Jerry Manuel for calling that play.  Suicide squeezes and terror on the basepaths is a much better way to try to steal runs than sacrifice bunting.

Now some pictures of things I noticed at Citi Field today.  There are a lot of changes, and plenty of them are fairly mundane, but still changes.   I took 400 pictures and a couple of videos, and there was so much good stuff that I’ll never be able to get to it all.  The full gallery is here.  More pictures at The Real Dirty Mets Blog.

The moved Home Run Apple. Great change. Great location. Looks amazing there. Could become a meeting point, although it’s just a wee bit crowded there.

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Continue reading “Opening Day 2010”

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Letters to the NL East, Part 5/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 0 of 5. (part 0, part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4)

AngryMrMet

Dear New York Mets,

Welcome to the what I like to joke is the second half of the ’09-’10 season.   But it’s time to put the past behind us and move on.  Nothing that happened before today counts for anything, and it’s time to step it up and start taking control of your own destiny.

Last season was a disaster; Let’s not talk about it anymore.  It’s now 2010 and even though we’ve got a couple of nagging injuries, there is hope.  Reyes will be back shortly, Murphy by the end of the month, and hopefully Beltran not too much after that.  The pitchers are healthy and while we’re missing Beltran for too much time, the rest of the offense is actually really capable.  There’s a lot of pressure on the pitching staff right now, but from all accounts you’ve got a chip on your shoulder and are working hard to succeed.  Relish the underdog role and punish the opponent.

Citi Field is amazing and all the changes look great.  Now make the experience inside a memorable one and make me forget that there is a Big Apple Brews or Shake Shack anywhere.  I’ll be there today early enough to get all that stuff out of the way before settling in to watch Santana pitch.  It’s time to get some confidence and win some games. It’s time to talk about things like wins and losses, actual performance, and stat lines, without trying to predict and project what you guys are going to do.  The division is ripe for the picking, and it’s time you stopped disappointing us and rise up and take it.   Let’s rock Citi Field like it’s never rocked before.

The predictions for your team are meek, but don’t let that bother you.  It’s time to surprise some people.  By June I expect to hear a collective, begrudging “I think this division is the Mets after all” to be uttered by the supposed baseball experts.  I expect you to make it so that most Philadelphia blogs will be talking about the Eagles by August.  The Mets have never closed two consecutive decades without a World Series title, and I see no reason to start the trend now.  In fact, they’ve never had a decade where they did not even go to the World Series, so let’s make that the starting point.

Your lifelong fan,

Optimistic Mets Fan

(I’ll be at the game today, but some that aren’t will be gathering in the Real Dirty Dugout irc chatroom of which you can find a link over on the right)

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Letters to the NL East, Part 0/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 0 of 5. (part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4)

yankeeslogo

Dear New York Yankees, (Because while they are not part of the division, are still are rivals in a way)

Ugh.  You purchased your 27th World Series last year.  You made the team better by acquiring Javier Vasquez from the Braves, even if he’s struggled as a Yankee before.  But this doesn’t exactly guarantee the same success in 2010.

Your team looked old and over the hill last April but was able to bounce back.  Eventually the age on the team won’t be able to do that, although Jeter and Rivera will certainly be trying so they can get that extra bit out of you in contract negotiations.

However, just about everything went right for you last season, and it’s not likely to go that way again.  Will guys like Nick Johnson and AJ Burnett stay healthy?  Will Granderson hit lefties?  How many games can Posada play behind the plate?   As I write this, Nick Johnson and Posada have both already been scratched from spring games this week.

It’s fair to say that the Yankees don’t have a ton of holes, but you do have two talented teams in your division that can exploit even the smallest problem in your game.  The success of last year does mask a lot of possible problems that could open up and devour the team though.  The handling of the bullpen, Joba and Hughes.  The range and age of your shortstop.  A-Rod’s hip, which was supposedly going to need more surgery but somehow didn’t.  Are the Feds coming for A-Rod and why is he dodging them?  Will Yankee Stadium in 2010 become the setting of some sort of Bourne film with A-Rod dashing through the stands with Matt Damon chasing him?  It’s probably a safe bet that they all the holes won’t all open at once, and that the Yankees could overcome some of them, but that’s why we play the games. When the dust clears you may find yourselves in third place and playing golf in October.

Your cross-town rival,

Optimistic Mets Fan