Brandon Nimmo Is Better Than Aaron Judge

Brandon Nimmo speaks at the Queens Baseball Convention

The Subway Series is here and once again the Mets approach it from a deficit that saps the fun.  The Mets are up against a losing streak and desperately need to get on a roll, and the opponent really doesn’t factor in that. You can’t really savor a rivalry if you’re too preoccupied with your own stuff.

 

That said, the best outfielder in New York will be playing for the home team this weekend, and Yankees fans will get a chance to watch him play. I’m talking about, of course, Brandon Nimmo.

 

Thanks to a stacked outfield with more veteran players, Nimmo has not had the playing time to technically qualify for the leaderboards, but his 167 PA is a reasonably large sample size on the season and his wRC+ of 162 would place him as the third best hitter in the NL behind Matt Kemp and Freddie Freeman.

 

I know it’ll be pointed out that Aaron Judge also has a wRC+ of 162, but Nimmo’s OBP is a little higher plus his BABIP is a little lower. Judge has a few more home runs but plays in Yankee Stadium and has 100 more plate appearances. Nimmo also has twice as many stolen bases and is a better base runner in general.

 

Hopefully you realize this post is somewhat tongue in cheek and simply good rivalry fodder, but I’ll end by saying that Aaron Judge is huge so Brandon Nimmo clearly provides more value per inch.

The proper amount of Yankee hatred

Whether from jealousy, frustration over media sycophants, or over-exposure to obnoxious fans, it’s easy to be a Yankee hater. With the Subway Series this week, it’s important to maintain the proper amount of hatred. This is sometimes hard to believe, but there are actually good Yankees fans out there, and some of them might even be friends and family.

 

So it’s always my goal to check my level of Yankee hatred and keep it just below the love of a true fan.  Also it should be clearly below your love for the Mets, because honestly if you hate another team more than you love your own, why are you even bothering? Don’t engage the bandwagon fan that just wants to yell “27 rings!” but doesn’t know who David Phelps is, and don’t go out there with the intent to drink too much and try to start “Yankees Suck!” chants at every hit. There’s real actual baseball being played that should provide plenty of opportunity for fans of both sides to needle each other and gloat.

 

Trash talk can be fun, but it’s always more fun when it’s based on knowledge, reality and this season. If Ike Davis strikes out, then sure, we’ve gotta take it. If Lyle Overbay is slow getting around the bases and gets thrown out, then sure, make a joke about how old the Yankees are. Grumble about the short porch (On Wednesday and Thursday) when someone hits a pop-fly that leaves the yard but be prepared to take it when someone jokes that Daniel Murphy has warning track power because he hits it to the deep part of Citi Field.

 

What we don’t need is hatred and venom for the sake of hatred and venom. Those rings won 4, 13, or 90 years ago don’t give the Yankees any advantage this season nor does it make them more deserving. Just because Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera were parts of PED infested clubhouses doesn’t mean every other word out of your mouth should be to call them cheaters. Keep it on the game. Joke about how Jeter’s not healing like he used to and his range will be even further diminished, or how the amount of saves Rivera has already, and hence the workload, might be a red flag down the road. Bring up how the Yankees seem to be relying on Andy Pettitte too much and that he hasn’t pitched a full season in ages.

 

Overall, just keep it civil. We’re all New Yorkers here. You can toss barbs and insults around if you like, but remember it’s a game and it’s supposed to be fun to watch, not an excuse to get angry and yell. Nothing conclusive is ever decided by four games in late May.

 

Realignment: Home Field, Tie-Breakers, More Interleague, Bench

The news this week is that the Astros sale is final and they’ve agreed to move to the AL West for 2013.  This means the schedule will consist of 30 interleague games, all season long, as well as the 72 against your own division, and another 60 against the rest of your league.    I happen to like it, besides the keeping the DH thing that gives the AL an unfair advantage.  A 2nd wild card berth will also be added with a one-game sudden death playoff for the true Wild Card spot.

 

These changes were made to even up the leagues as well as put the emphasis on winning the division.   Winning the division guarantees you’ll make the Division Series, although doesn’t give you any additional benefit _in_ any of the series besides home field over the Wild Card.  I’d actually like to see that eliminated now, and just go with best record.   If a 94 win wild card team already has to dispatch with a lesser team in a sudden death match, let them have the home field after that if they’re playing an 88 win division winner.

 

For those of you that still think the balanced schedule is important, this new format would include that for the divisional race, although not the wild card race.  Each division would play the same set of interleague teams.   What I’d be curious about is the tie-breakers.  Previously if two teams were tied for the division and wild card, but both would make the playoffs, the team with the better record is awarded the division.   While I think there is merit to keeping the same format, emphasizing that you need to beat the teams in your division to actually win it, I could see where it’s a tough pill to swallow to technically have the best record in the division and have to play a sudden death game.

 

This format has the potential to create a lot of heartbreak.  Especially the first couple of years as teams leading in the Wild Card are used to coasting and preparing for the playoffs.  To then potentially go home one day after the season ends is going to feel much like we felt as Mets fans in 2007 and 2008, or Reds fans felt in 1999.  I suspect the winning team will treat the game as pretty much an extension of the regular season, not getting overly excited about winning that ‘first round’ game.

 

Many will dislike the extra interleague, but I’ve got no more desire to see another series against the Dodgers than the Angels.  Roster construction in the National League may take on a different form.  With interleague play scattered throughout the season, and more of it, NL teams may feel the need to carry more of a DH type player on the bench.   None of this is official yet of course, but it looks like it’s pretty close to accurate and finalized.  It’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out, but I think it could be fun.

Tip Your Hat, Get ‘Em In July

The Yankees won this round.  Some lucky breaks, grounders that found holes and inopportune walks combined with a rather disappointing offensive performance all around gave the Yankees the series win.  If I had to choose one culprit, it would be the offense.  Still stunted from losing David, Davis and Pagan and from the continued struggles of Bay and Thole , they had opportunities that they just couldn’t capitalize on.  So I’ll tip my hat to the Yankees here; for now they’re the better team as shown in head to head competition.  As a reward I’ll refrain from making Yankees jokes for a week, which is roughly how long it takes A-Rod to get down the line these days.  Oops, a week starting now.

 

The Mets lost their first series in a while, which was bound to happen.  It sucks that it was the Yankees, but they’re likely a better team, were at home, and have the DH advantage as all AL teams do in these interleague games.    The team is still playing pretty good baseball overall, 3-3 since Wright went on the DL, and is keeping themselves in games and in the playoff race.  Ike Davis and Angel Pagan may return somewhat soon, and hopefully David Wright just behind them.   Until then it’s up to these guys to keep battling, to keep playing good baseball and winning games where they can.

Upcoming is a couple of weeks of weak other-division opponents during the week, and tough divisional opponents on the weekends.  The Mets luck out and should miss Roy Halladay next weekend, which is definitely a boon.  The Mets need to avoid spiraling into a funk and continue to win more ballgames than they lose.  This keeps them in a position to make a run at things as they get healthier, and also helps Sandy Alderson figure out which of his role players and bench guys he needs to keep on this team, and which can be sent away. Z24DR8WQXYQQ

Back to .500

The Mets came inches away from their third straight shut out as Teixeira’s home run just missed Beltran’s glove.  In fact, that would’ve been an easy fly out in every other ballpark in the majors.

You can't see the new building in this picture because it's blocked by that historic structure Babe Ruth once played in...wait, what?

Now the Mets are back at .5oo and 22-22 on the season.  They played poorly early on, but despite injuries have really settled down.  They’ve suddenly got a very potent bullpen.  That’s not an exaggeration either, their bullpen has been as good as you could want for quite a while now.  Beato’s back to try to continue his scoreless inning streak.  Jason Isringhausen, if they considered relievers for the award, would be on his way to comeback player of the year.   Francisco Rodriguez remains one of the best closers in the game, and may actually be the best this year.

 

The bullpen is meaningless if the starters are going to let games get away, but they haven’t been doing that.  The starters have been keeping them in games.  The offense is crippled without David Wright, Angel Pagan and Ike Davis, but if they can continue to play the way they’ve been playing they’ll find themselves in a very favorable position as those guys trickle back into the lineup.

 

Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson both deserve some credit for what’s gone on.   Collins has this team focused and playing good baseball, and Alderson hasn’t been shy to shuffle the roster around and reward guys that deserve playing time; like Justin Turner.

 

I said yesterday I like the way the Mets match up this weekend, and I stand by that. The Mets can hit Burnett tonight and Pelfrey is a better pitcher than Ivan Nova.  Another series win, and perhaps a sweep, is within the Mets grasp.

Why The Mets Have the Subway Series Advantage

The Yankees have righted the ship a little with a three game winning streak, but I still like the way the Mets are playing lately over the Yankees.  With the exception of the battering the Yankees gave the Orioles last night, they really haven’t been hitting the ball very well.  It took them 15 innings on Wednesday to score a second run and they’ve got a lot of aging players that aren’t quite hitting like they did in their prime.

 

The Mets are without three of their starting lineup, Angel Pagan, Ike Davis and David Wright.  So far Justin Turner has really provided the Mets with some good production, and Ruben Tejada and Jason Pridie have filled in pretty well.   They’ll be bolstered by playing in the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium, and if Jason Bay can have a nice hot streak, the Mets lineup can still score plenty of runs.

 

So what about the pitching?  If I had to pick the three pitchers in the Yankees rotation I’d want to face, I got them.   The Mets miss C.C. Sabathia and Bartolo Colon.  Friday night is the briefly a Met Freddy Garcia versus R.A. Dickey.  Garcia pitched well to start, but he’s got a 4.63 ERA over his last four starts and a very high WHIP.  Dickey is due to have a good game, having recently reduced his walk total.  However, he has struggled with a high home run to fly ball ratio, and if he doesn’t get the break he needs on the knuckleball, Yankee Stadium might be cruel.  If you’re not going to the game and would rather be close to Citi Field, check out the Apple’s half priced drink special at McFaddens.

 

Saturday the Mets have Chris Capuano going, who has been pretty solid and consistent for them.   The Yankees have their own personal version of Oliver Perez in A.J. Burnett who has his own definition of effectively wild.   He’s due for a high walk game and the Mets have been a pretty patient team.  This is definitely a winnable game, even if we have to suffer through Fox announcers for it.

 

The finale features Mike Pelfrey against Ivan Nova.  Looks like a mismatch on paper, although Nova has had the occasional gem.  Pelfrey has looked great lately, although he has given up a bunch of solo home runs.  If he can work the sinker more effectively and keep the ball out of the air, he should have no problem dominating the fly ball happy Yankees.

It’s time to have some fun.  The Mets are capable of having a better record than the Yankees after the weekend is over, and depending on the results of the other games, they could be closer to first place as well.  The Mets have been playing good baseball, and there is no reason for them to be dismissed as a chore for the Yankees.  Don’t believe people when they say it’s a lose-lose for the Yankees because they’re “supposed” to beat the Mets.  They’re just being curmudgeons.  Both teams are supposed to beat the teams on their schedule, regardless of the proximity of the other teams fans.  If the Yankees fall to 24-21 or 23-22, and more importantly fall further behind Tampa and let the Red Sox and/or the Blue Jays past them in the division the criticism and panic will be all over the place, regardless of the opponent.

 

Likewise the winning team will gain some legitimacy.  The Yankees would be keeping pace in a tough division, the Mets would have shaken off a rough start and injuries to get back above .500.

 

The people that say the Yankees are “supposed” to beat the Mets are under the illusion that the Yankees somehow deserve to make the playoffs, deserve to be the best team in the city and the other teams exist only as farm teams for their pennant run.   If the Mets were to beat them, which is certainly possibly and perhaps even likely,  they’ll remind everyone that they deserve equal footing and discussion in this city and that cuts into the divine right the Yankees have to dominate the back pages with their petty arguments about which steroid-addled aging star bats in which position in the batting order.

 

So here’s to a fun Subway Series weekend where everything in the city is about baseball and every player anyone wants to see is on the same field together.  I like the Mets chances, and can think of no better way to get back above .500 on the season than to beat on the crosstown rivals.

Subway Series Recap and Notes

empire-190Some quick notes about the Subway Series

I thought the Yankees were supposed to take pitches, but excepting a couple of innings where some Mets pitchers struggled, they really didn’t. 

While a limited sample size, Jeter’s range looks very very suspect. 

My unofficial analysis suggests it was 70-30 Mets fans on Friday, and closer to 60-40 on Sunday, although most of the Yankees fans left on Sunday before they had anything to cheer about. 

Shake Shack continues to have ridiculous lines.   Need more grills!

In the past Subway Series games, especially Sunday night, have been rowdy and violent to the point of almost making it unfun.  This wasn’t the case this series, I was there for both a loss and a win, and it never progressed much past good-natured ribbing.  There will probably be more fights by the 5th inning against the Phillies Tuesday than all weekend.

The Yankees injuries have messed with the bench most of all.  It’s not as big a deal when they play AL ball, but when they need pinch hitters they are woefully unprepared.  I wonder if they could use a guy like Gary Matthews Jr?

Big thanks to the Mets for emailing me some postgame wrap up notes after the game yesterday.  I was pretty tired after driving back, but some interesting notes that I didn’t catch myself.  The so called “Bronx Bombers” did not hit a home run in the series, and the Mets only hit two, both by Bay.  This ties the least amount of home runs for a Subway Series and is only the third time in a series the Yankees have not hit one.

That was the first Interleague loss for C.C. Sabathia since June 15th, 2007.   It was a bad day for former AL Cy Young award winners, besides ours, as Halladay, C.C. and Greinke all got roughed up. 

The Empire State Building will be blue and orange tonight for the Mets victory.

John Maine: Liar? Lefty?Hurt?

This Maine situation is seemingly more complex than we know.  I don’t know what it says for clubhouse relations, control of the clubhouse, hiding injuries, actual performance, or all those other immeasurable things.  What I do know is that Manuel and Maine are not getting along, Maine has been up and down performance-wise all year, and hasn’t even hit the 91-92 he was hitting post-injury last year.

There is no real way to remove guilt from Maine in this situation.  He struggled in his bullpen, supposedly didn’t top 85 mph for the first batter of the time, and bent over in what appeared to be pain after that.  He snapped at his manager in the dugout, and was critical of him in post-game discussions with the media.

Manuel and Warthen get plenty of blame here too.  It’s their job to make the call, not Maine’s.  If it didn’t look right in the bullpen, then it’s their decision to have him make his start or scratch him or whatever they do.  They should come up with a plan, with Maine, about what how they’re going forward.  Whether that’s one batter, one walk, or one inning.  Maine’s job is to go out there and throw the ball to the best of his ability if he’s on the roster.

Is Maine hiding an injury?  This would be the biggest issue of all really.  Maine’s been a pretty injury prone guy, especially lately.  He definitely could be realizing that he’s often feeling a little pain and that if he complained about every little twinge he’d end up spending more time on the disabled list than not.  Maybe he’s decided he needs to pitch through a certain amount of pain as a major leaguer, and he did hint at this thought on Thursday after the game.  Then there is him bending over on the mound, looking like he was in pain.  Maine explains this as knowing he was on a short leash because he saw Valdes warming up in the bullpen already and he was frustrated.  Gameday suggests Maine’s fastball was 85 during that batter.  Maine claims he looked at the film and that his mechanics were fine and his last two pitches were 89.  I don’t know what sort of speed guns or software the Mets (or the Nationals, or wherever he was looking) have, so I certainly don’t know what to make of that.

Both Manuel and Warthen have suggested they believe Maine would pitch through an injury rather than admit one.  Warthen used the words ‘habitual liar’ to describe Maine’s attitude about injuries, supposedly meaning it as a positive reflection on his competitiveness, but Maine said that the comment did upset him.  Maine made a statement Friday that he would work towards his next start, whenever and wherever that would be.  Manuel claims his gut says there is something physically wrong with Maine, but that he “could be wrong.”  Maine will get tests next week to tell for sure.

“I want to pitch,” he said. “Even if I have to go out there and throw lefthanded, that’s what I want to do. I want to go out there and pitch.”

Manuel’s response to this was comical, suggesting that maybe he’d have better lefthanded.  Jests aside, I’m not sure this is a comment you should make about a player that’s already annoyed at you and frustrated.

The drama obviously continued beyond that.  Maine said he wasn’t asked how he felt on the mound, Manuel pulled him and walked away muttering to himself.  This is what caused Maine to confront Manuel in the dugout and what he was most upset about.  After the game Maine said he hadn’t talked to Manuel and didn’t know why he was pulled from the game.  Someone has said that Maine would be going to the doctor Friday, but Maine knew nothing of this.  When the team showed up to the park Friday, Maine had neither gone to the doctor nor talked to anyone on the team about doing so.  He was placed on the disabled list with “shoulder weakness” and was told he’d be getting tests next week.  Elmer Dessens was activated, and didn’t arrive at the park until the 5th inning, which suggests as least that they hadn’t decided anything and weren’t willfully hiding it from  John Maine.   Maine still insists he’s not injured, so we’ll see what these tests reveal and where the Mets go from there.   It’s not like he’s pitched horrendously either.  His previous start wasn’t good, but he has a 4.3 ERA with three quality starts going back to his four most recent starts.  The Mets are 2-2 in that stretch.

This situation does not make anyone look good.  I’m already biased against Jerry Manuel and his poor decisions and management style going back to 2008.  I’m frustrated with John Maine, but it’s hard to dislike a guy that works as hard as he does and is as competitive.  You can’t ask much more than that from a player; if you want to criticize Omar Minaya for keeping him because you didn’t think he was talented enough, that’s fine, but as long as John Maine (Or Oliver Perez) is a Met, I’m going to root my hardest for them.

Almost 48 hours later, Maine has finally admitted that he’s felt a small amount of pain, similar to what he felt last year, in his shoulder.  He still insists he doesn’t need the DL, and that might be true, and maybe he should’ve seen the doctor yesterday instead of Monday, but this does validate Warthen and Manuel a little.  However, they could’ve stuck to their guns and not let him make the start if they suspected injury in the bullpen, and they could’ve probably gotten him to a doctor yesterday, and at least waited before putting him on the DL.  Mejia needs to go down anyway, and wasn’t available yesterday, so it wouldn’t have hurt to demote him and bring up Dessens and wait a day for Maine’s results.

I have to wonder if this pain is a result of Maine switching his mechanics back to what he’s comfortable with.  Obviously what Warthen had him doing this spring and early in the season was not working, but they need to find something that both keeps Maine’s shoulder from hurting, and allows him to be effective.  Nothing we’ve seen from Warthen suggests he can do that.  I never thought I’d miss Rick Peterson.

The Best Time To Face The Yankees

Many talk about how the Mets are reeling and it’s a horrible time to face the Yankees and Phillies.  I disagree, I think it’s time for them to rise up and face the challenges, but either way this is the perfect time to face the Yankees. 
The Yankees are riddled with injuries, and they’re going into the Subway Series five games out of first place. (the Mets are six)  Both teams have not played very well as of late.  Usually these series are best, regardless of talent, if both teams are both at least playing reasonably well, but maybe both of them playing badly works too; who gets up off the mat better? 

Maybe the Mets anemic offense, despite double digit runs Thursday, gets the Yankees pitchers into a groove?  Or maybe the Yankees tattered and faulty bullpen is what the Mets need to wake up the sleepy bats.  The Mets are just trying to get back to .500 and get some momentum before they play division-leading Philadelphia.  The Yankees are hoping to right the ship and not erase what was an excellent start to the season.  This series is more about not losing than it is about winning. 

The Mets have their two best pitchers going in this series, and certainly a fair chance to win each game.  Winning at least two out of three is not only possible, but would actually create a lot of good will and confidence going into the bigger divisional series against the Phillies.  The Yankees are indeed supposedly better, but they’re losing lately, they’re injured, and even great teams lose 50+ games a year.  The lowly Pirates beat the Phillies and Halladay last week, for instance.  So It’s time for the Mets to make the most of their wins, and get them in these next six days.  No time like the present for a hot streak. 

The Yankees are no juggernaut.  Their biggest key to success last year may have been health, and that’s eluded them this year. Posada will not play.  The bullpen is a wreck, Vazquez is very sketchy this year. 

I’m headed out to the Citi today and Sunday.  I’m planning to enjoy myself.  Let’s have a fun weekend of baseball, an orange and blue Empire State Building on Monday, and momentum for the Phillies.