Omar Could Stay For 2011

There have been signs that the Mets were never going to go all-in in 2010. As far back as the offseason, the Mets appeared to have a plan of not overpaying for mediocre players. They considered John Lackey, considered the top pitcher on the market, but ultimately decided that he was going to get more years and commitment than they felt was wise. They resisted Bengie Molina’s demands for a second year, something we’d all be screaming about for 2011 had they given it to him. Joel Pineiro had a contract offer from the Mets, but played chicken with them hoping for more money or another year, something the Mets felt was not in their best interests and didn’t budge on. We’ll likely never know if this was due to some budget constraints, or due to a philosophy of not giving out bad contracts. Outside of budget issues, Omar also resisted trading away prospects for rentals or other pieces during the season. It’s impossible to know if there was one guy that would’ve turned the season around, or gotten them to the playoffs. It certainly doesn’t seem like it based on where they’ve ended up, but hindsight is always 20/20. Maybe there was a creative solution that could’ve gotten the Mets a contributing second baseman, or a solid right fielder when Castillo was sidelined with the injury and Jeff Francoeur settled back to his sub-par career norm. However, Omar’s resistance to trading prospects this season has helped bolster the farm system and has created more options going forward.

I think this plan reflects well on Omar. He seems to have conducted business in 2010 according to this preset plan likely put in place with his agreement or from the owners. While it’s possible it was set in motion to keep Omar from sacrificing the Mets under bad long term contracts or gutting the farm system for a outside shot at success this year, it seems more likely that he executed the organizational plan very well in 2010 and it’d be surprising for them to fire him as a result of that. It’s never an easy thing to evaluate a GM. We don’t know what decisions were solely his, and what decisions of his were vetoed by either the owners or the other people involved in making decisions. We also don’t know what decisions Omar may have vetoed that would’ve worked out, or that he just couldn’t get done. There are rumors and hints at both positive and negative budget issues and it’s unlikely we’ll ever know exactly what the financials are, or were, for the Mets.

The Mets are even more aware of the risk of long term contracts with Johan Santana’s recent torn capsule in his shoulder casting doubt on the productivity of the back end of his contract. Johan was and is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and it’s looking like even that may not have been worth the money and years. I think this only accentuates why the Mets won’t, and shouldn’t, go after Cliff Lee in the offseason. Having one long term, high priced, contract for a pitcher is risky, two could be catastrophic. Investing over $40 million dollars a year on two pitchers who will be on the field less than 40% of all Mets games may be irresponsible. This subject will probably be debated back and forth all offseason anyway though.

I wish the Mets had given 2010 a better shot than they did, although I consent that part of it was the underperforming Bay, Beltran’s slow recovery, Maine’s un-fixed injury, Murphy’s injury and even Castillo’s bone bruise that kept 2B production down from his usually OBP and subjected us to Cora and Tejada for too long. I don’t dislike the Mets plan. It’s often possible to find a cheap option that will approximate, if not better, the performance you’d get by signing a guy an average free agent like Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro with a lot less commitment for the future. R.A. Dickey did as well as any free agent pitcher on the market, including John Lackey. The Mets trusted in Niese and were rewarded. Josh Thole certainly looks very solid, both defensively and offensively, and i’m so glad Omar didn’t give Bengie that second year.

Not trading prospects will end up being a boon as well. Ike Davis hasn’t been much better than Daniel Murphy was in his “rookie” 2009 season, but he’s well above average defensively, and has more power. Niese has grown up, Thole is here, Jenrry Mejia and Dillon Gee may be outside shots at contributing next year. Ruben Tejada has looked pretty good defensively. There are others in the minors as well. This doesn’t mean the Mets are set for 2011, but they have a lot more options going forward. Knowing more about these prospects and having them close to Major League ready gives the 2011 Mets a lot of possibilities in terms of getting production for cheap from Ike Davis, or maybe trading a guy that doesn’t fit as well for a different piece of the puzzle.

Omar is still here right now. There’s no doubt that the Mets have a lot of things they need to accomplish this offseason, and I can see how a head start on getting to know what’s needed on the team could help that. What real reason is there to keep Omar around for September when the Mets are out of the playoff race? The biggest decisions he’s making right now are which rookies to promote to the Mets, and using that major league exposure to determine the holes and needs of the Mets for 2011. Chances are the ownership group is involved in which players are getting looks too, and isn’t this something a new GM could do as part of his (or her, though that seems unlikely) process? The Mets are going to have a lot to do this offseason, including picking new coaches and a manager and improving the team on the field. Wouldn’t it make sense to reassign or fire Omar sooner rather than later and get a head start on the administrative changes?

So based on all this, it does appear that Omar has been doing a good enough job to warrant not getting fired. Does that mean he keeps his job? One concern with the team is that they may stick with a guy too long, or make a decision based on what happened last year versus what will happen next year. It’s the front office’s job to pay a guy on what he’ll do in 2011, not reward him for what he did in 2010. This can apply to the GM as well. Omar may well have done a good job creating a 2011 Mets puzzle that looks promising, but will he do a good job putting together those pieces so that the end result is a 2011 Mets World Championship? That is the difficult question here, and one the Wilpons need to think long and hard about. If it was up to me, I think I’d look long and hard at other options, but I think if Omar can and does lay out a fully thought out and complete plan for 2011, and beyond, that he could return.

Letters to the NL East, Part 4/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 4 of 5. (part 1, part 2, part 3)

phil_phylis

Dear Philadelphia Phillies,

You suck.  That’s right, you heard me.  You’re the “popular” pick to win the division, much like the Mets were predicted to win the World Series last year.  You know what?  It doesn’t matter.  You get credit in analysts’ eyes for being there in the past, but that doesn’t actually get you any wins in 2010.

You already get one big black mark for letting Cliff Lee leave when you acquired Halladay.  Now suddenly your rotational is only marginally better, at best.  And you have at least as many question marks at the Mets.  Sure, those questions have turned out to be exclamation points in the past, but this is a different year.  Maybe Hamels was a one-hit wonder, and will continue to be merely pedestrian.  Blanton has never been anything special, and Moyer had a hot spring, but is hardly a reliable product in the rotation.  Happ is the one thing to hold on to, in that he had a really good year in his time up last year.  There is no guarantee that that will continue, that he won’t get figured out by the league and fail to adjust, that he won’t suffer the sophomore curse.

Pedro Feliz was such a solid feature at third base that I just don’t buy that Polanco is anything more than a lateral move at best.  Your bullpen is extremely suspect, and while you do have a potent offense, the Mets did match you in runs scored prior to the injury-plagued 2009.   This offseason you lock up a couple of your players to long term contracts, and coupled with letting Lee go, it’s apparent you don’t have the money to fill any holes that arrive this season.

So, while you get many props for winning the division in previous years, the calendar has turned and that buys you nothing in 2010.  You’re at the top of the hill but you’re teetering at the edge.  All it would take is one misstep, or one good push, for you to go tumbling back to obscurity.

While I’ve enjoyed having a real rival that’s both geographical close and in the same league, I don’t know if you can keep it up for long enough for us to say that Mets-Phillies is better than Yankees-Red Sox and really mean it.  The Mets have some minor injuries to start the season, so you should take advantage of it while you still can.  If you can’t start getting ahead in the race, the Mets will steamroll right by you when they’re back to full strength.

It’s going to be a fun and combative year.  Can you handle it?

Your bitter enemy,

Optimistic Mets Fan

Heading Out to Citi Field This Season

As usual, I’ll be heading out to Citi Field more than a couple of times this season.  I’ve currently committed to four games, as you can see in the ‘upcoming games’ box on the sidebar. 

I try to get to Opening Day any chance I can.  I wasn’t able to secure or afford second hand tickets to the Opener last year, but this year with demand a little down and it not being a new stadium, I was able to get tickets.  I’ll be in the Promenade Box, and Opening Day can’t come soon enough.   I always remember the early April games, and walking into Shea Stadium, and remembering how much I missed being there, and how much I felt I belonged.  I suspect this season will be no different, and I already have a bunch of things planned.  If you’re also going to be there, you should check out Mets Police’s Blue Cap Army.  All you have to do is show up wearing a blue Mets cap.  Easy!

Opening Day has a lot of hoopla to get out of the way, and it’s more about the return of baseball games that count, so I like to get to another game early on to devote solely to the Mets.  Friday April 9th will be that game. I’m going alone, will probably spend most of the game on my feet wandering around to different parts of the stadium and enjoying the different vantage points.  I’ll probably buy a scorecard and keep score, and have my camera and take a billion pictures.

Pyrotechnics night is July 5th.  I was frequently at Shea for Fireworks night, and I was lamenting it’s disappearance once Citi Field’s construction starting taking up the parking lot, so I’m glad it’s back in some fashion.  I have no idea how they’re going to do it, and what the difference between pyrotechnics and fireworks is, but I’m sure it’ll be fun.

The Hall of Fame ceremony game is August 1st.  Something that has  been somewhat lacking in the last couple of years is a true celebration of long time Mets greats, and properly honoring them.  This day will rectify that, and it should be a game that sells out.  After all, there has been tons of screaming and yelling about Citi Field not having enough Mets history in it.  If you’re one of those people, you pretty much have to be there.  It would look really bad if Mets fans were clamoring for Mets history but don’t sell out a game celebrating it.  This isn’t about the team this year, this is about being a Mets fan.  As of right now, not even the cheapest section is sold out.

Staying Positive on Beltran

Everyone’s down after the news that Carlos Beltran had surgery on his knee and will likely miss Opening Day, and probably most of April.  The one thing we were all hoping for in 2010 is that we could go into the season healthy, with a full team on the field, and start feeling good about the Mets again; Positive about the Mets again.  This doesn’t help that cause.

I’m going to ignore most of the off-field drama for now.  There is a still a lot that we don’t know, about who knew what, what the doctors said, how much the Mets knew or didn’t know, and when Beltran started feeling pain.  We know he told Kevin Burkhardt in November that he felt no pain.  His knees started acting up again and he had surgery.  We’ll go from there.

We haven’t gotten a solid figure on recover time yet.  The common figure seems to be around 12 weeks to baseball activity, whatever that means.  Is that another month past the 12 weeks to be on the field with the Mets?  It’s roughly 12 weeks to Opening Day, so we’re basically talking about most or all of April.  If the prognosis is closer to 8-12 weeks, maybe he can be back sooner.  Maybe it’s not as serious as all that.  I don’t think we’ll really know until we see how Beltran feels in March. 

The events of 2009 have given us no reason to believe anything the Mets, or anyone, says about recovery time and return to action.  I don’t see how we can do anything else right now.  Beltran is irreplaceable and if he’s out for longer than April, things could get murky.  Angel Pagan has played very well with the Mets, and while he’s no Beltran, the team can be successful with him in CF temporarily.  Fernando Martinez could become a factor too, if he shows something amazing in Spring Training.  Of all the possible contigency plans, that has to be the most exciting one. 

For now, I’m going to stay upbeat and cross my fingers about all things going well from here on out, and Beltran being on the field by May 1st.  A-Rod missed April for the Yankees last year.  Championships aren’t won in April.  The Mets need to get another solid pitcher, and it looks like they should find another solid lefty OF bat for the bench.  I have good feelings on Mike Pelfrey and John Maine based on some stuff I’ve heard from them, and if both of them pitch well in 2010 it would actually overcome the lost offense from Beltran to Pagan.

A Healthier Orange and Blue 2010

Last night a player, wearing Orange and Blue, returned to play after an injury-plagued 2009.  I’m going to take this as a sign of good things to come for those other injured orange and blue wearing professional athletes, even if it is a different sport.  Last night Rick DiPietro made his first start in goal for the Islanders in over a year.  He’s one of their franchise players, and having him back with the team means a ton to their long term success.

From MetsStuff

In 2010 the Mets will be getting Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, and John Maine back from injuries in 2009.  Even David Wright missed time in 2009.  Maine and Beltran actually returned before 2009 was over, and the others are all on schedule to be healthy by Spring Training, with Oliver Perez already working out.

Of course, this doesn’t guarantee anything.  Filling out the lineup card doesn’t count as a win, but the Mets had been competitive the three years prior to 2009 and with these guys back it’s hard to expect they won’t be again.

We could spend time breaking down lineups, breaking down the Phillies lineups, analyzing trades and offseason acquisitions, evaluating players and prospects and predicting what 2010 will bring. We can and will do that, but the rosters aren’t set yet, and Spring Training is not quite here.  There will be time enough for everyone to declare who the favorite is, and why.  There will be time to document what the Mets need to do, and what the other teams need to do to get to the playoffs.  Right now it’s about formulating the roster that will take the field on April 5th.  Omar’s working on a catcher and a pitcher, and time is working to get those players we already have healthy and back on the field.

I’m going to take Rick DiPietro’s return as a sign that the 2009 orange and blue injury bug is over, and that 2010 will bring much success.

Francoeur and Valentine

With Bobby Valentine talking to ESPN, it suggests that the Mets aren’t talking to him. Which could mean the Mets are planning on repeating the Manuel mistake in 2010. Which would be a shame, because replacing Manuel would be the easiest and cheapest problem to fix on the Mets.

From Pictures

Couple this with rumors that the Mets are talking about signing Francoeur to a three year contract, and it becomes obvious that the Mets just don’t get it. Francoeur, while not the problem, is not the solution either. He’s not a very good player, despite his small sample size with the Mets this year. While I’d rather the Mets look at signing another pitcher, a left fielder, and two catchers and keep Francoeur in RF for the time being, they can do that without committing to him beyond next year. Even worse is what this represents.

If Francoeur is a given in right, and obviously we’ve got Beltran in center, what’s going on in left field? Either the Mets have no faith in Fernando Martinez playing for the Mets any time soon, or they have no serious plans to go after a power hitting acquisition to play there, unless we’re talking a one year deal, which would be harder to pull off. While I don’t think straight out bombers are what the Mets need, although if Manuel is staying it’s more important because it fits his style better, the Mets do need to add another bat. The free agent options are better for an outfielder than a first baseman, and Murphy plus an outfielder is a better team than trading for a 1B and whatever leftover piece you’d have for left.

The Mets are more than capable of competing in 2010, but they do have a lot of work to do in the off-season as well. So far the rumors I’ve heard regarding what they plan are not reassuring.

Daniel Murphy, the Iron Man of the Mets

Of all the position players originally selected to take the field on Opening Day, only Daniel Murphy has not spent any time injured. Luis Castillo has also been mostly healthy, with the exception of the couple of days from when he fell down the stairs.

From Mets

Daniel Murphy hasn’t exactly put up super numbers in his consistency, even factoring in his platoon status early on. The more I watch though the more I want him to be a part of the Mets next year. Personally I’d rather spend money on left field and get a power bat that way, and hope Murphy can hold down first base. He looks like can he do it defensively, and he’s shown some skill offensively at times. I know his batting average is still kind of low and he doesn’t have the typical power you expect from a first baseman, but if you replace Delgado’s power with a left fielder and Beltran and Wright return to home run hitting norms next year, I don’t think we’ll be a team that struggles.

You may argue that we could’ve used more power this year, even with no injuries, but I’d disagree. While power couldn’t have hurt, I feel like this team’s strength is speed and aggressiveness. I do not feel Manuel is the best manager for that role however, and I think he’d be a better manager with a power team. Given the option, and given Manuel’s general ineptitude, I’d rather replace him as the manager than try to remake the team into a power team.

If the Mets need to get at least a left fielder, a catcher, another starter and a first baseman it’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford adequate replacements for all of them. So of Daniel Murphy, Angel Pagan, Gary Sheffield, Brian Schneider, and Livan Hernandez/Tim Redding I think it’s pretty clear that Daniel Murphy is the player to keep for an everyday role next year.