Canadian Optimism

Memorable series in Toronto?  Perhaps not.  The Mets flirted more with last place than with first this weekend, but they got out of the country with a win and perhaps that’s a step forward.

 

No NL East team swept this weekend, providing the Mets some solace.  The Mets also have managed to squeak out some wins while they’ve been struggling, perhaps doing some good towards minimizing the damage.  Avoiding long losing streaks is a good way to avoid undoing all the progress you’ve made during winning streaks, and simply being 4-6 over the last 10 instead of 2-8 has done that.   A good way to have a winning record is to win more games when you’re playing well than you lose when you’re playing poorly, since all teams do both for at least some portion of the season.

 

It’s important to minimize the length of said losing streaks as well, and for the last couple of decades the National League’s favorite way to do that has been to face the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Mets will travel to Pittsburgh for a three game set, and while it’s true that they’re not a good team, it’s important to note that they rank 3rd in the NL in team ERA and the Mets will be facing their two best pitchers in Bedard and McDonald.  The counter argument is of course that the Pirates can’t hit a lick and the Mets will be tossing the top of their rotation as well, with Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese getting the starts.

 

It’s worth noting that the Mets are three games over .500 more than a quarter of the way through the season and haven’t been a losing team even for one game all season long despite being almost universally picked to finish last.  It isn’t because everything has clicked either.  The starters have probably been better than expected overall, but they’ve been prone to absolute disaster starts as well.  The bullpen is incredibly streaky, and it almost seems that as Frank Francisco goes, so go the Mets.  The offense that should’ve been the Mets best feature has been spotty, although David Wright is hitting for two.  Ike Davis has been pretty much a disaster and the two positions that the Mets really didn’t have any depth, shortstop and catcher, are two positions the Mets faced injuries at .  Both Ruben Tejada and Josh Thole went down while putting up strong offensive numbers, and their backups certainly aren’t up to par.

 

And still the Mets roll on.  Time to take care of some Pirates.

2012 NL East: A Race Down to the Wire

The Phillies and Braves got worse, and the Mets, Nationals and Marlins got better.  This season the NL East could finish with the first place team being less than 15 games ahead of the last place team.  Last year the Marlins finished 30 games behind the Phillies.

 

The top of the division shapes up to win a few less games, and the bottom of the division will win a few more.  This will bridge the gap between them and bunch everyone up in the middle.   Injuries and other things can affect this of course, but the Mets and the Marlins figure to be falling in the middle somewhere.    Maybe there’s some doubt that some of the bottom teams can win the division or that the Phillies will finish last, but it’s definitely going to be a tighter race this season.

 

These teams play each other in half the season’s games.  The head to head matchups are going to play a huge role in determining who wins the division this year.  The margin of error this year may be that much less that a good record against teams within the division make up the different between winning and falling short.  Even just an 11-7 record against the Phillies would make up four games in the standings.  If I’m right about the division being bunched up, it’s really going to intensify the rivalries between some of these teams.  That can only be a good thing that leads to teams setting up their rotations so we get more pitching duel matchups.  All five teams will go into September with a lot of games to play against each, meaning most of the NL East teams may still control their own destiny in terms of making the playoffs.

 

It’s going to be a fun season.