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Carlos Beltran in 2012

My ideal situation with Carlos Beltran is that he has a good year, and the Mets negotiate a new, reasonable priced contract with him and he moves to right field in 2012. I know this might not be the perfect baseball move, that from a pure numbers standpoint it may not make sense to retain Carlos, even if he has a good year without injury.  Baseball is more than a fantasy draft of the best statistical robots that put up a certain line of stats; it’s also very emotional, and I happen to like Carlos Beltran.  I’d be very happy for him to finish successfully, and one day add his number to the wall of retired Mets out in left field.  Beltran has been a great teammate and a great part of the New York community since he’s arrived, and I think continuing that into perpetuity would be great for both him and the Mets.

So while other fans seem to be counting the days until Beltran is no longer a Met, or thinking about possible trade targets for him now or by the trading deadline, I’m hoping he somehow remains a successful Met for the rest of his career and thinking about ways that that can happen without sacrificing team success.

The biggest issue with Beltran is that he has bone bruises on his knees that don’t heal easily, and he may never fully recover from them.  The brace he wears is meant to minimize the damage to his knees and those bruises, but he’s only been wearing the thing for two months worth of games so it’s hard to get a sense of how much it affects him.  His bruises were better at the end of the season than they were when he started rehabbing to return, which is a good sign.  The perfect, if unlikely, situation would be that his knees heal completely and that the brace becomes second nature to him and doesn’t inhibit his swing or ability to run in any way.

So if Beltran were to prove himself healthy and productive in 2011, what would be a reasonable contract for him to satisfy my emotional desire for him to remain here, and yet not inhibit the Mets from being great, and continuing to be great?  His contract currently pays him 18.5 million dollars, which is definitely too much.  Technically he’s only making 13 million, as 5.5 of it is deferred.  Even if the compromise was the same amount in his paycheck, that’s probably also a bit high for anything but a one year deal for a player turning 35 at the start of the 2012 season.  Something more along the lines of three years at 27 million seems to be what he might be worth going forward.  The Mets could lace it with all sorts of incentives for games played and awards received.  If three seems too much, maybe two plus a vesting option based on games played, and therefore health, for the third year.

I have no idea if that’s something Carlos Beltran, or his agent Scott Boras, would accept.  I have no idea what, if anything, Carlos could do to make the Mets consider keeping him.   Based on his work in the community, and his comments about staying a New York Met, I do believe Carlos wants to be here, but often money talks.  This is all predicated on Beltran having a good 2011 season and looking like he can continue to produce for multiple years anyway, but based on how he was doing in September last year I believe that he can definitely contribute if he can manage the situation with his knees.

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K-Rod’s Option “Problem”

I know all these stories have been talked about and re-talked about since it’s the off-season and there is very little going on, but bare with me as I talk about this one some more.

People act like Francisco Rodriguez’s option year for 2012 vesting would be disastrous. He makes 11.5 million next year and that jumps to 17.5 million if he finishes 55 games, which he usually does. That’s a six million dollar raise, Although if it doesn’t vest they owe him 3.5 million to buy it out. It’s not really that bad. Omar knew that a lot of money was coming off in 2012, and the philosophy is that good teams have good closers. Since K-Rod is one of the best, and remains one of the best (i.e. finishing games, staying healthy, and the option vesting), the Mets would be best served to keep him. The raise is a lot, and I’m not sure how that went down in negotiations or why it need to be so much more than the base contract, but if the option vests it means he’s contributing to the success of this team.

The Mets problems in the past couple of years have not been spending too much money, but spending too much money on guys who have not contributed. The Mets have not been playing with a $140 million dollar payroll team the last couple of years. If the Mets have guys on the field, like Francisco Rodriguez, who are performing and contributing, then the amount of money they’re being paid becomes less important. Sure he’s making more money than he’s theoretically worth, but he is adding value. There is no guarentee that the players you sign to replace him with that 17.5 (really 14 because of the buyout) million dollars would win you more games. Especially as it’s a one year thing, and the Mets reportedly will have plenty of money to spend next year without that 14 million and an extra hole to fill. Do you want to take the gamble that the money saved by the option not vesting is will help create a more successful team in 2012? It’s certainly possible, but sometimes the saying “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” is apt.

Using games started and games finished as vesting options has always annoyed me. You’re not allowed to vest options based on statistical performance, and this seems to be skirting that line. Games on the active roster, or “games healthy” would make more sense. Both games started and games finished have the possibility of the team manipulating things so that options don’t vest. So do games appeared, as Alex Cora found out last year. Games finished is even more linked to performance, because a closer being bad at home actively alters the number of games he finishes.

There is no real need to speculate on ways to get around the option though. Francisco Rodriguez will either be healthy and successful and closing out a lot of games for a reasonably successful club, or the team will wallow in mediocrity and not get that many chances. The Mets offense seems poised to score a lot of runs though, so if the bullpen can hold leads, there may be less save situations. If Terry Collins chooses not to use Rodriguez in four run save situations or get him work for the sake of work, then that could keep the games finished number down. If the Mets are competing in August and September then not only will the Mets need and want him closing games, cost be damned, but the added attendance boost and revenue from being competitive will more than pay that raise for 2012. The thing the Mets can do to create the most money and financial flexibility is to win, not to look for ways around options or to avoid pricey contracts.