There is no doubt that the trade Sandy Alderson is in the process of pulling off is a good one. We still aren’t aware of some of the finer details, but the Mets are adding two top prospects, John Buck, and a third minor leaguer, for R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole, and a minor prospect. Dickey is one of the best pitchers in the league, and he still may be a top of the line starter for a couple of years, but the Mets are adding players that may still be having a positive impact on the team six years from now. It’s certainly possibly they may not flourish, particularly the much farther away Noah Syndergaard, but the probability favors the Mets in that regard.
The problem is the immediate future. Travis d’Arnaud, the catcher the Mets are receiving, will probably be up to the majors very soon, if not on Opening Day. John Buck will likely be on the team in the interim, and probably shift to a backup role when d’Arnaud gets called up. Together it’s unlikely they provide as much value as R.A. Dickey, and that means a team already under .500 is probably taking a step back before pushing forward. That’s disheartening for most fans, whose number one concern is the current roster of players on the field. Many of us would rather root for the guys we have to succeed, particularly when they’re great ones like Dickey, than reinvest emotion in new guys that are merely promising to be great. Ultimately though what the fans want doesn’t matter because winning is what brings in the fans, the attention, and the money. It’s not out of the question that d’Arnaud plus the pitcher the Mets replace Dickey with is worth more than Dickey and Thole would’ve been, but it doesn’t seem like a good bet for 2013 nor the type of improvement the Mets need to climb out of 4th place if it does happen.
That’s where the disappointment comes in; this trade does not make the Mets better in the foreseeable future. Sure, it raises the probability that they are better down the line, but it’s also important that this player is going to be cheap and under team control for a long time. Fans can forgive losing star players, whether homegrown ones or adopted ones, when the team placed in front of them excites and captures their attention, but so far I’m not so sure the 2013 version is in position to do that. Especially if we don’t get an impact bat for the outfield and instead go with Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and a platoon of Mike Baxter and 2013’s version of Scott Hairston. We heard a lot about the present value of contracts with the David Wright negotiations, and that concept applies to winning seasons too; a winning season in the present is worth more than one in the future. Good process only gets you so far, and there are plenty of inherent risks between now and then that could sabotage the plan. A clearly improved 2013, even if it ultimately falls short, could create the excitement that draws fans in, fans that will continue to come in 2014. The message lately has felt like it’s not worth investing in this team yet, which keeps ticket sales and revenue down; revenue that could make the job of creating a winner in 2014 easier. It’d be unfair to assume Sandy Alderson’s going to take the rest of the offseason off at this juncture, meaning he could still improve the team and the outfield, but it’s hard to see the type of players coming that give this team a “If everything breaks right” chance at the playoffs.
As always with the Mets these last three years, the money question is always looming. Partial sales, which included Sterling money invested in the Mets, helped pay off loans and seemed to at least point the Mets in the right direction. Allusions were made to a payroll in 2013 at or above 2012’s number. The deferred contracts and negotiations seem to point in a different direction, although it is still possible that Sandy Alderson spends most of that money on players that make the Mets better. It’s never a good idea to expect much direct truth from a general manager, that’s not their job, but given the message that the actions are sending it feels pretty hard to do more than guess at the plan. The Mets appear to be in a holding pattern and I just hope they get clearance to land before they run out of gas.
As with most seasons, the ending is bittersweet. I’ll miss Mets baseball, but the ending means they’ll be back to even next time we watch, dreaming and hoping on 2013. It’s a long month of playoffs before much will happen with the Mets in terms of real signings, trades and acquisitions but that provides the perfect backdrop to spend some time reflecting on what went right in 2012 and gives us hope.
It’s all doublespeak right now, but many things seem to point to the Mets wanting to keep David Wright and David Wright wanting to stay.
R.A. Dickey may win a Cy Young, and is cost-controlled for next year. Sure he’s got an injury, but it’s not likely to affect his 2013 season. He’s been amazing as a Met and I suspect we have at least another year of that.
Ike Davis shook off his injury-shortened 2011 and a disastrous start to have a pretty terrific last four months. Those four months weren’t without their own issues at times, but if he could simply extend those four months through 2013, he’d be a huge part of the Mets offense.
Bobby Parnell was the best Mets reliever this season, taking a nice step forward and really doing some very good work. Best Mets reliever is a low bar this season, but Parnell had the best ERA on the team, minimum 20 IP.
Johan Santana‘s no-hitter will forever be the highlight of 2012. He dealt with some bumps and bruises and then tailed off pretty badly, but his first half suggests that he’s still capable of being a good pitcher. There is some hope that with the period of rest this offseason without rehab and trying to build up his arm he’ll have a strong 2013.
Jon Niese pitched a full and complete season, and was very very good. According to Baseball Reference, Niese’s best pitcher comparison is Gio Gonzalez. Niese will only be 26 next year, and has a very reasonable contract going forward. I don’t advocating trading talented pitchers, but any way you look at it, Niese is extremely valuable.
Matt Harvey and the Mets farm system is showing a lot of promise on the pitching front. In his limited appearances this year, Matt Harvey had the best ERA on the team outside of Bobby Parnell. 60 innings isn’t a ton, but then again it’s almost roughly how many innings the average reliever pitches all year and we make all sorts of judgments off that. The Mets have a couple of other guys that look like they could contribute valuable innings next season, and that should hopefully means the Mets have a pitching strength in 2013 and can focus on improving the offense.
The Mets won 74 games. Things are clearly not all rosy right now, but that’s not to say they’re without hope. These are just a few obvious examples, but there are plenty of players that will come out of the blue next year to contribute. Things aren’t nearly as bleak as some might make them out to be this offseason.