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Halfway Mark – Projections

Midseason Projections

Some interesting notes. The Mets had a bad June, and without a swoon like that in the second half, I forsee these numbers being a little higher. If they have a better second half than first, Carlos Beltran and David Wright both have a chance to be 30 Home Run and 30 Stolen Base guys. Another key note is that Scott Schoeneweis should have significantly less IP than Feliciano, and he doesn’t. Heilman’s not been very good this year, but somehow he’s the most used reliever. Maybe he just needs a little more rest to be the most effective. I left out Aaron Sele because he’s horrible, but his numbers look like 51.1 IP with 74 hits. That’s really all you need to know about him. I want to see Feliciano, and even Smith get more pitching, rest Heilman a little more and Schoeneweis a lot more.

Player

AVG

OBP

SLG

Hits

R

2B

HR

RBI

SB

BB

Jose Reyes

.316

.397

.453

208

114

34

8

68

80

90

Carlos Delgado

.229

.293

.418

140

78

38

26

90

4

50

Carlos Beltran

.271

.346

.475

164

90

32

28

100

26

72

David Wright

.290

.378

.505

176

92

42

28

88

36

82

Paul Lo Duca

.280

.329

.371

148

62

18

10

48

4

32

Shawn Green

.276

.331

.436

134

70

32

14

54

12

38

Win

Loss

ERA

IP

BB

SO

HR

Hits

SV

SVO

Tom Glavine

14

12

4.39

217.1

78

104

28

228

John Maine

18

8

2.74

204

76

168

20

158

Oliver Perez

14

12

3.14

189.1

74

170

22

146

Orlando Hernandez

8

6

2.78

144.2

50

118

18

104

Jorge Sosa

14

6

3.92

128.2

46

76

12

110

Aaron Heilman

12

6

4.19

77.1

18

58

12

70

6

Joe Smith

4

0

2.73

66

32

66

2

56

Billy Wagner

2

0

1.73

62.2

18

98

8

48

32

34

Scott Schoeneweis

0

4

5.46

59.1

40

30

10

64

2

Pedro Feliciano

2

2

1.76

61.1

30

52

2

34

2

2

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Bullpen Exhaustion, Aaron Heilman and the Mets Classics

Tonight was a bad game, mainly because you can deal with one night when the offense struggles, but two nights starts to make a bad habit of things. At least the Mets are going on the road to three great hitters ballparks. The other issue is bullpen fatigue.

I think Schoeneweis was the right move in that situation. I think he sucks, and I wish he wasn’t on the team anymore, but given that he is on the team, and you can’t not use guys on the team, it was probably the right move. The problem now becomes fatigue. Two extra inning games have started to tax the bullpen. Willie’s kept his starters in longer than I think he would have probably would have any other time, to help save the bullpen for a taxing weekend in Philadelphia. The only other option I see for that inning is Aaron Sele, and I wonder if they’re entertaining the idea of him starting one of Friday’s games, and holding him back. Aaron Sele however hasn’t exactly been an excellent reliever anyway.

I think the Mets need to make some changes. I know it’s tough to find bullpen help, and I think Omar is working on it, but it can’t happen overnight. Maybe we traded away too many relief prospects in the spring this year. I think it’s drawing to a time where you have to do something with Schoeneweis. I doubt he can be optioned down to New Orleans, and from all accounts putting him on the disabled list isn’t going to heal his tendon, if it’s even the tendon that’s making him suck. I want to see some of these relievers that are down in AAA, if we can somehow get them up here on the roster. The Zephyrs have a couple of guys that might be decent. Willie Collazo has a 2.75 ERA, Steve Schmoll has a 3.18 ERA, and even Jon Adkins’ ERA is 3.68. Now, I saw some of Adkins in spring training, but I really don’t know anything about these guys, but in my mind they can’t pitch worse than Schoeneweis, or even Aaron Sele, who I think at least has options.

I’m kind of amused that Aaron Heilman has six wins and leagues the majors in relief wins. He has as many as the rest of the Mets relievers combined. He wants to be a starter, but it’s arguable that he’d actually have less wins if he was in the rotation. It’s probably just a statistical quirk, but I find it amusing.

The Mets NLDS win over the Dodgers is going to be played on Mets Classics on SNY. I watched one of these games a couple of weeks ago, and it was fun to watch, except for one thing. Especially as a replay, the ESPN and Fox announcers really take some of the juice out of watching these games. Part of the charm is having the guys that we know and have been doing the games all year, continue into the playoffs. I wonder if it’s possible to mute these games, and splice in the audio stream from the radio broadcast. I’d much rather listen to Tom, Howie and Gary’s radio broadcast while watching these replays.

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Another (Season) Series Won

The Mets again, just like game seven, took a tie game into the late innings against the Cardinals. This time Heilman retires the side, Billy Wagner strikes out So Taguchi, and the Mets win on a Shawn Green home run. It’s been a while now since people have been calling for Green’s head. He’s started to play well again, and the hair on that head has started to grow again. The Mets now have a four game winning streak, and instead of not hitting when they pitch, they pitch when they’re not hitting. It’s a small thing, but a huge difference. The Mets are finding ways to win again, despite two Delgado errors, despite only having three hits.

This isn’t a fluke, this isn’t the Yankees teasing fans with a long win streak only to stumble again. The Mets are for real, this is for real. The Mets have now won the season series against the Cardinals, and have yet to lose a game against them. I think I’m over last year now. I still despise the Cardinals, but the Mets are far enough along that I can block out the NLCS and focus on the future. The Cardinals will not be standing in the way in October. The Mets have a big series coming up this weekend, and it’s good that they’re playing well again. If I could pick one stretch for the Mets to have a losing streak, June would be the one I would’ve picked. They lost games against mainly American League teams, who they won’t be competing against to win the division or even a wild card. An added bonus is that losing games to teams like Detroit and Minnesota actually hurts the Yankees wild card chances.

The Mets have a chance to gain a comfortable lead after a miserable stretch. They will actually go into July with a greater lead than they went into June. The Mets are 8-14 so far in June, and they actually have a chance at not having a losing June. I don’t expect this to happen, but it’s starting to look much better than it was.

To address the pessimists that think the first three weeks in June are more a measure of this team then the rest of the season, you’re crazy. I know the Mets were playing the so-called best teams in baseball, but that doesn’t mean the Mets stink. Besides the fact that the American League teams have an obvious advantage in interleague play, particularly at home, the Mets were just slumping. You could see it in their play. It’s not like the Mets were playing great, pitching well, hitting well, and not making mistakes. They played crappy, and they lost. I know they went through a similar interleague struggle last year, and it’s a sad coincidence that strengthens this bogus argument. If the Cardinals could beat Detroit last year, do you really think the Mets wouldn’t have?

Another negative point the pessimistic Mets fan likes to rant about seems to be that we need another starting pitcher. This is the rant of a fan that’s not paying much attention. Tom Glavine will be what he is, and he actually pitched well in the playoffs last year. El Duque can be a starter, or a long reliever, and is great in the playoffs. Oliver Perez is really starting to look like a clutch pitcher, and John Maine has had a measure of consistency this year, keeping the Mets in games. All accounts say that Pedro Martinez is progressing marvelously and he would be a bigger addition to this club then any trade could bring. The bullpen is another story. I would like to see some other players audition, whether it is through trade or call-up. I’m sure Omar is looking into solutions, and it’s still a month from the deadline, so he’s probably putting out feelers and expressing interest in guys on teams that haven’t given up yet.

Another bat is another common request, but I think it’s a bad one. Counting out Moises Alou, whose injury gets worse and worse the more doctors look at it, we’ve got Shawn Green and Carlos Beltran. After them, we’ve got Carlos Gomez, Endy Chavez, and even Lastings Milledge. These guys add sparks and excitement and the ability to mix it up, put out different guys and try to find someone hot is much more valuable then putting a acquisition out there. Especially if that acquisition is a guy like Sosa, who by many accounts is a cheater.

All I can say is, stop being so pessimistic. Have some faith in the team, in Willie and in Minaya. Enjoy the winning season rather then expecting it to be like 2003.

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Injuries, but things may be picking up

May 03, 2007 12:32 PM

Two days into May, and David Wright has 5 hits with a home run. John Maine and Jose Reyes win April awards, first time both awards have been won by the Mets since 1985. Joe Smith is still pitching good, and Ruben Gotay pitched in with an RBI Wednesday filling in for Valentin.

Sure the injuries to Orlando Hernandez and Jose Valentin aren’t going to be easy to overcome, but Pelfrey finally started pitching well after the first inning Tuesday, and John Maine and Oliver Perez have been terrific. With Wright starting to hit again, and Delgado hopefully on the horizon as he starts to be more selective and get more walks, the loss of Valentin for a bit isn’t a big deal; especially since he was the 8th batter on this team. I saw some of Gotay in spring training, and his defense is good, and Easley should be fine there too. The two biggest issues right now are Aaron Heilman, who just isn’t pitching well, and the errors. This team has been playing a little sloppy as of late, and it needs to stop. I don’t know if Heilman will give over his struggles, or maybe scouting reports have caught up to him. Maybe Joe Smith nipping at his 8th inning job will motivate him.

I was at yesterday’s Mets game, and I think the theme of the game was probably “Past a diving Uggla”. All in all it was a good game, despite the two errors from Wright. They could’ve capitalized with some more key hits, but they got the win, had a three run lead through the last couple of innings, and Wagner got his 5th save without much problems.