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Statistics Rising

You can make yourself crazy over-analyzing baseball.   A week ago the Mets rotation wasn’t pitching deep into games, the bullpen couldn’t get anyone out, and people were all set to write the Mets off.  Now they’ve run off a stretch of five wins in a row, the pitchers have pitched well from rotation to bullpen, and they’re scoring runs in all sorts of ways from home runs to errors to simple clutch hits.

 

The last time a major New York sports team other than the Mets won a home game was last Sunday the 17th when the Rangers and Yankees did it.   Since then the Rangers and Knicks both got bounced from the playoffs and the Yankees are 3-3 including dropping the last two home games against the White Sox with each of their two closers, Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano, blowing saves.

 

An aside on the Yankees: For a team as old as they are, it has to be a little worrisome that they’ve postponed so many games already doesn’t it?  They’ve played far fewer than anyone else, and in fact only played four games last week.  Those three games will have to be made up, and it’ll eat into days off and rest time for some of these veteran players.

 

You could make excuses about the quality of the Mets opponents, but I could make excuses that they were a bloop or a lucky bounce away from winning some of those games they lost too.  Regardless of who is in the other dugout, the Mets are playing good baseball right now.  When this team is playing well, they’re capable of beating anyone.  The question has always been if they’re going to stay healthy enough to have the chance to play well, and can they sustain the success longer than the slumps they might go through when guys are struggling?

 

Also worth noting is that if the only reason the Mets are winning is because they’re playing bad teams, why can’t the Phillies beat the Diamondbacks?

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They Come Home Winners

It’s  been a rough stretch for the Mets, but they’ll return home winners, having ended their losing streak Sunday in Atlanta.  For now it’s just one game, but they do face two of the weaker teams in the league during this six game homestand.

 

They’ve hopefully put the three games in 24 hours meme to rest, eliminating the need to juggle the roster, shuffle relievers and starters, and try to figure out how to keep everyone rested.  T hey can also get back into a normal routine of everyday baseball and hopefully eliminate some of these silly mistakes they’ve been making.

 

It’s the perfect time to start getting on a hot streak; the weather starts warming up, the starting pitchers arms have been strengthened a little, and Jason Bay may even be back as soon as Tuesday.

 

The bullpen has started to settle down as well, and has started to build up a sample size that Terry Collins can use when decided how and when to use different relievers to maximize success.

 

The Mets have played less than 10% of their games so far, and there is  plenty of baseball to be played.  I could give you a whole list of teams that have had poor Aprils that go on to have successful season as well as mention all sorts of statistics Mets player are posting that will get better. Right now we’re only look at one small sample of mostly under-performing data.   Many of those numbers will level out over the months to come, and many players will experience over-performing stretches that lead to more wins than losses.  It’s simply unfair to judge the team conclusively on this small sample of games.  They need to win games, but right now simply that they’re playing them is joy enough.

 

They return to Citi Field after an off-day on a one game winning streak with the path laid out in front of them to start making winning the trend, and losing the aberration.

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Well, It _Is_ Still Early

Spin? What spin? The Mets played horribly on this homestand.  At least there is nowhere to go but up!  All teams play with a long season with peaks and valleys.  The Mets have started out in the valley, but I’m not, and neither is anyone else, going to be able to give them a fair evaluation until they’ve had a peak to compliment it.  If they counter the 4-9 start with a 10-2 stretch, it puts them in a completely different stage than if their pinnacle is a 8-4 stretch.  The adage is you’re never as bad as you look when you’re losing and never as good as you look when you’re winning.   It might be smart to give them more than 8% of the season before we go insane trying to quantify the team.

So take solace that any ten, or 13, game stretch does not make or break a season, and definitely not one in April.

The Mets cannot play this badly all season, the pitchers will get better, will settle in.

The offense has actually looked pretty good for the most part.  Willie Harris mostly stinks, and Brad Emaus hasn’t really shown much, but Daniel Murphy has and Jason Bay will be back in a couple of weeks.

It’s a long season, with many ups and downs.  So we started on a bit of a downer, but that doesn’t mean their aren’t peaks ahead.  What’s that quote from Fight Club?

“It’s only after you‘ve lost everything that you‘re free to do anything.”

Now hopefully the Mets can stop playing like they’re sleepwalking through the game and generate some wins.