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Equipment Drive, Google Plus, Hurricane

What’s going on around Metsopotamia?

 

The Mets are running an equipment drive.  If you’ve got some stuff, bring it by!

 

EQUIPMENT COLLECTION DRIVE:

To support the growth of youth baseball and softball, the Baseball Tomorrow Fund (BTF) has teamed up with Major League Baseball Clubs to organize equipment collection drives across the United States. This season, the Mets will once again team up with the BTF to assist local youth baseball and softball organizations by collecting new and used baseball equipment prior to the game on Saturday, August 27.

 

During the past five seasons, the Mets have collected bats, gloves, balls, spikes, uniforms, catcher’s gear for the Greater New York Sandlot Athletic Alliance, who distribute the donations to area youth baseball organizations. This year, we hope to increase our donations significantly with the help of our loyal fans.

 

Please bring any equipment that you plan to donate to Citi Field when the Mets host the Atlanta Braves on August 27 at 4:10 p.m. Donation stations will be open two and a half hours prior to the start of the game outside of the Jackie Robinson Rotunda. Your generosity is greatly appreciated. On behalf of the Mets, we thank you for your support.

 

No word on if the Mets will reschedule the game Sunday that’s likely to be rained out.  It’s possible they could play it Saturday as part of a doubleheader if they can work it out with Fox.  The Mets are under no obligation to make this easy for the Braves, who forced the Mets into a doubleheader when they were dealing with some pitching shortages in April due to another double header a day earlier.

 

The Mets community is growing on Google Plus.  It’s looking like a fun little place to be able to share posts and ideas.  I think Google may have something here.  You can join and add me to your circles here.

 

 

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Hope, And The Hardest Time To Watch The Mets?

Optimistic or not, the best chance for the Mets to be serious contenders or fade out of it is coming this weekend.  Fans often aren’t competitors, and give up before it’s seriously over.  They make judgement based on what they believe will happen, and based on what has happened already, or based on small samples or bad losses.  That doesn’t mean it’s true, or that the Mets are eliminated, but right now the signs do seem bleak as the Mets have had dozens of opportunities to climb back into the race and haven’t.

 

So with the chances slim and the pessimists laughing at you for holding out hope while the Mets still have their own destiny in their hands, each loss becomes a nail in the coffin of this season, each opportunity to gain a game missed hurts all the more.   The Mets aren’t competing for a wild card spot although they’re not eliminated either.  The Mets are one losing streak from the season being all but over, but right now they’re a tease of maybes and what-ifs.  The Mets could host Atlanta seven (or six or eight) losses back in the wild card race, and sweep the series to get to four losses out with 50 games left to play, which is certainly on the fringes of the race.  They’ve played the Braves well this season so it wouldn’t be shocking to see that happen.

 

It’s too early, perhaps only days too early, but too early nonetheless to give up on the season.  Still, many see the high probability of the Mets staying home in October and start thinking about the future.  They opine about where Murphy should play in 2012, and if he should be getting more time at 2B or RF right now.  They think about which players will be here, and which won’t.  Who will be a free agent?  Which teams should we root for in the playoffs? (that’s easy, the Carlos Beltran Giants)

 

All that discussion is certainly fair given how the Mets have looked lately.  But they’ll go through a stretch where they look good again too.  Maybe it comes at the right time and they play the Braves tough.  Maybe it doesn’t and they’re all but eliminated on Sunday.  There will be plenty of time for player development discussion when the rosters expand and in the offseason.  It’s a long offseason.  You may believe it’s better that the Mets get knocked out now to save us the heartbreak later, but the offseason is long enough as it is and I’ll cling to that small glimmer of hope as long as I can.  Stranger things have happened than teams like the 2011 Mets suddenly making the playoffs.

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Climbing Back Into the Playoff Race

With that four game sweep of the Reds the Mets have inched closer in the playoff race.  They are now 6.5, 6 losses, behind the Atlanta Braves for the Wild Card, and 3.5, 3 losses, behind the second place Arizona Diamondbacks.   What makes those numbers even less daunting is that they play both those teams.

 

They have nine games left against the Atlanta Braves, who they’ve already beaten in five of their previous nine games.  If they could play well against Atlanta, that number of games behind would shrink fast.  The Mets have six games against Washington and Florida before playing the Braves next weekend.  The Braves also have six games against those same teams.  It’s shaping up to be a huge series for the Mets, one that could really make or break the season.

 

I would like to see the Mets play better than the Braves during these next six games.  Gain one game before going head to head, so that they are five out.  Then they have the possibility to push it to four games with a series win, or really put the pressure on with a sweep and go to merely two games behind them.  Right now the Braves aren’t playing well and just lost Brian McCann, and the Mets are playing well and some of the guys that were slumping are now hitting.

 

It’s time to start surprising some people.  Not just “Hey, this team isn’t a disaster” surprise, but a “Hey, this team is actually _good_” surprise.  Let’s Go Mets!

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My MLB Player Prop Bets

I made a couple more single dollar prop bets yesterday.   Nothing real fancy.
Jose Reyes – SB in the 2011 Regular Season
Over 33½ (-125)
Mariano Rivera – Total Saves in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 36 (-115)

Will any of the Big 4 win the NL Cy Young?
Big 4 include Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels
No -180
 
Cole Hamels – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 16½ (-120)

Carlos Beltran – BA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over .273 -115
Andy Pettitte – Will he pitch for the Yankees in the 2011 Regular Season
 No -200
 
 
How many of the Big 4 will win over 20 games or more in the 2011 Regular Season?
Under 1 (-115)
RA Dickey – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
 Over 11½ (-115)
 
 
Who will win more games in the regular season series between the 2 teams listed. Must play at least 15 games for action.
New York Mets +240
Competitor: Atlanta Braves

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Letters to the NL East, Part 2, Dear Braves…

Dear Atlanta Braves,

 

You think you can quietly build a quality team and surprise people by trying to take this division?  Think again. More often than not this division has been about the Mets chasing you guys, but this year will be different.  Chipper Jones is no longer a scrappy rookie; in fact Larry is a worn down old player that has trouble staying on the field.

 

I’m aware you may try to compete for the best offense in the league, but remember that Alex Gonzalez is not good, Freddie Freeman is an unproven rookie, and Nate McLouth has been bad.  If Chipper can’t play, that offense suddenly isn’t very good, especially on days McCann needs a break.

 

Yes yes, pitching is your thing.  I get it.  You’ve got Hudson back healthy and young Tommy Hanson, cousin to the members of the band Hanson, looks like the real deal.  A fair amount probably hinges on Jair Jurrjens being able to regain his form from two years ago, and if that’s going to happen is yet to be seen.  Just make sure not too many balls are hit to second, or Uggla will do his best to undo defensively any value he creates with his bat.

 

Waiting to reverse the tomahawk chop on you,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

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Why The Mets Can Compete: Best Offense in the NL

Don’t believe everything you hear: The New York Mets can compete for a division title this season.

 

The Best Offense in the National League

The Mets have a surprisingly potent offense, and it’s getting glossed over with all the negativity surrounding the team.  I’ve been calling it the best lineup in the National League, and while it’s certainly premature to proclaim anything like that before the season has started, I think they can definitely make a case for it.  I’m not even the only one that thinks the Mets bats aren’t getting a fair shake. Here’s Ted Berg with his take on the lineup.

There are other good lineups out there.  The Reds scored a ton of runs last year and their lineup remains mostly intact.  Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Scott Rolen make up the meat of that lineup, and that’s pretty formidable.

The Cardinals have Albert Pujols.  You could almost end the discussion right there, as “They have Pujols” is often the deciding factor in which offense is better.  The Cardinals also have Matt Holliday, as well as Yadier Molina, David Freese, and Colby Rasmus.  Still, I’m not sold on Ryan Theriot, Lance Berkman, or Skip Schumaker contributing that much to the lineup.

The Brewers have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.

Perhaps more immediately dangerous to the Mets is the Atlanta Braves. Dan Uggla, Chipper Jones if he’s healthy, Brian McCann behind the plate.  An outfield of Heyward, Prado and McLouth.  The Braves can definitely hit the ball this year.

Now let’s actually look at the Mets.  Pagan has put up great numbers with the Mets and last year could play center as well as anyone.  Jose Reyes is healthy and prepared for the season this year, and already looks to be the Jose we know and love.  He actually had good numbers last year once he finally got up to speed after missing Spring Training.  He needs to walk more, but he’s a dynamic force at the top of the lineup.  Similar to the Braves with Chipper, Carlos Beltran needs to stay healthy and on the field.  It’s easy to forget just how good he is when he’s not playing, but having him in there for 130-140+ games is going to be a great boon.   You’d like David Wright to strike out less, but he’s still a talented frontline bat in the center of the lineup.  Jason Bay had a down year that was punctuated by a concussion, but it’s not hard to think that he’ll return to smashing home runs and getting on base at a great rate.  He doesn’t need to hit 40 to help this team either; if he can keep his OBP high and not make out, even if he only hits 25-30, that’ll be a great help.

Now the back end of the lineup is what will make or break my argument.  I think the Mets have a deep lineup, and unlike past years with guys like Jeff Francoeur, or Gary Matthews Jr, or Brian Schneider, the Mets don’t have an obvious glaring hole.  Ike Davis had an excellent rookie year, and the hope would be that he builds on it.  He’s got a lot of power and was perhaps rushed a bit last year with the injury to Murphy.  Now with a full season, starting the season in the majors and comfortable in his role, hopefully he can improve.  Josh Thole has had limited time, but everything we’ve seen from him has been good. He’s a guy with good bat control that doesn’t strike out and has an above average OBP for a catcher.  We’ve seen some signs that he’ll grow into some power as well.  He’ll never be Mike Piazza, but it’s been a long time since we’ve had a catcher that actually did any hitting.  The last guy in the lineup, right now, is Brad Emaus.  It’s hard to project what he’ll add, as he hasn’t had any major league experience.   He put up very good numbers in AAA last year, with a .397 OBP and 15 home runs.   So he’s a patient guy, and hopefully he can utilize some of that patience to draw walks in the majors as well.

If the lineup holds up as it’s constructed now, it’s certainly in the running for a dangerous lineup.  Will it be “the best?”  Only time will tell, but I like the Mets chances in that regard.

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2011 MLB Over-Unders: My Picks

Every year I make a couple of prop bets on baseball before the season starts.  I just like to put my money where my mouth is and this year is no different.  So here are a couple of MLB Over/Under bets I made on Bodog. The player props aren’t out yet, so this is just the team. 

Tampa Bay Rays – Over 84½

I know they lost some guys, but they’ve also picked some up.  They can still pitch, and I don’t expect them to drop off as much as this.

Philadelphia Phillies – Under 97

I would like to point out that they lost Jason Werth in an offense that at times last year was non-existent and their best hitters are both a year older, and hurting.  Chase Utley still hasn’t played a game this spring.  Yes, they’ve got quite the cast of starting pitchers, but Hamels is up one year and down the next, Oswalt has struggled with back issues frequently and neither he nor Cliff Lee had absolutely amazing numbers last year.  The offense also has to score for them to win.  Halladay is still amazing, but 97 seems high.

New York Mets – Over 77

 Unless you’re predicting injuries and guys having bad years, it’s hard to imagine the Mets winning this few games. They won more last year, and I think they’re a better team, perhaps the best offense in the National League.   They’ve got a manager, they’ve got Reyes healthy.  They won’t be playing Jeff Francoeur even if Beltran can’t play 140.  I expect 2B, 1B and catcher all to give us more production, and it’d be hard for Jason Bay not to have a bounce back year.  I believe in Dickey and Pelfrey and I think Niese gets better in his second year. 

Baltimore Orioles – Under 76½

76.5? in the AL East? For a team that won 66 last season? They’ve made some additions this offseason, but I can’t see them reaching 77 wins.  This probably goes along with my Rays guess.  If I think they’re going to win more games, some of those will be against the Orioles. 

Atlanta Braves – Under 87½

The Braves reached 91 games last season, so this one’s tough.  I believe they overperformed a bit and I don’t have faith in their pitching depth.  They also no longer have Bobby Cox, for whatever that’s worth, and Billy Wagner had a great year for them and retired.  I could see them winning 86-87, but I think they fall just under.

New York Mets 35/1 to win the World Series

Obviously a long shot, but I make this bet every year.  Personally I think they have a better than 1/35% change

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Mets Blasphemy List

These are statements that I  think most fans consider to be blasphemy.  What statements are on your Mets Blasphemy List?

 

Jose Reyes will not be a Met his entire career.

 

David Wright will not be a Met his entire career.

 

Yadier Molina is not the Anti-Christ.

 

It was probably time for Seaver to go anyway.

 

It’s okay to root for the Yankees too.  After all, this is New York right?

 

Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden are True Yankees™.

 

Blue and Orange don’t look good together.

 

#17 belongs to Kevin Appier, Fernando Tatis, or Luis Lopez.

 

The tomahawk chant that the Atlanta Braves Fans do is kind of cool.

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Could This Be The Mets Final Test?

Could this be the final test for the Mets?

I hope it’s not, but if they fail it may mean the figurative end to their season.  The next two weeks are very critical, and the first order of business is just flat out winning games.  The Mets have played very well at home this year, and they’ve got three games against the tough Cardinals, and then three against the not so tough Diamondbacks.  There can be no excuses: They have to win games.  Omar’s job, provided he still has one, is to bring in reinforcements after that.  The trading deadline is next weekend, and the Mets are in need of some help.  No longer can they play waiting games or decide they don’t like the price.  When you drop as many games in the standings as the Mets did, you no longer have the luxury of pretending you’re not desperate for help.

After the Diamondbacks the Mets again head on the road.  It’s this road trip that could prove to be critical, as they face the Braves and the Phillies.  The Braves have been amazing lately, and the Mets have been making just about every other ballpark look to them like Turner Field did around the turn of the century.  By falling so far back, it’s become imperative that they make up ground by beating the competition in front of them.  Losing and falling further behind could very well be a death blow.

The Mets have been extremely streaky this year and they really are much better than they’ve shown lately.  If they take that streak and turn it into a hot stretch where they’re again a team that’s tough to beat, they could climb right back into this race.  There is still a lot of baseball to be played and August could be a good month for them.  After they play the division rivals on the road, they come home for the Rockies and the Phillies before going on a road trip that one would describe similarly to the Cleveland-Baltimore trip they took that they were successful on: they play the Astros and the Pirates.  Another home stretch with the Marlins and the Astros provides plenty of time to fight their way back into this race before facing the Braves again at the end of the month.

Can the Mets ace this next test and fight their way back into relevancy again?  I don’t know.  Neither answer would surprise me, but I’m certain they’re capable of it.  They often say you need to get hot at the right time and if the Mets can capitalize on that by beating up on the division rivals, as the Phillies did in 2007, they can certainly win this division.

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Mets vs. Braves: Important, but not THAT Important

Huge three game series for the Mets coming up here, but most of it’s about perception and confidence.  No three games in July ever decide anything, but winning and losing this series is the difference between being within striking distance of the division lead going into the break, and being clearly the second-best team.

If the Mets win this series they will be respected throughout the league as contenders.  They’ll be brought up in all trade talks for big acquisitions.  When analysts adjust their season predictions, the Mets will make it onto a lot of their lists.  David Wright will again be recognized as one of the best players in the game, people will stop taking as many pot shots at the Mets, their minor league system, their medical staff and their decision making.

If they lose and fall four or more games back from the division lead things won’t be as rosy during the break.  Analysts will find a way to justify their decision in the winter that the Mets have too many holes to make the playoffs.  They’ll talk up Bobby Cox, they’ll talk about the Phillies having a good second half.  Jose Reyes will be described as injury prone.  Carlos Beltran will be portrayed as an 80 year old grandma that can’t walk, much less play CF.  They’ll question Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya and their ability to do their job.

All off the results of one series.  If a sweep happens either way, the reactions will be even more extreme.

The series is really not that big a deal.  It’s an important series to try to win and not let the Braves get too far ahead, but even if they’re four games out going into the break, that’s hardly insurmountable given how many games they still play against each other.    Still, it’s a chance for the Mets to put the first half to rest on a positive note, take a deep breath, and soar into the second half with the addition of Carlos Beltran.

If you’re headed out to Citi Field for any of these games, the Mets are having a fan appreciation weekend.  They’re doing a lot of seat upgrades, signed giveaways, and handing out gift cards.  On Sunday 25 lucky fans will receive game-worn jerseys.  Enjoy!