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Baseball Is A Collection of Sprints, Not a Marathon

Baseball statistics have come a long way.  We have a ton of information at our fingertips and are able to perform some pretty awesome analysis of baseball players.  This includes things like projections, trying to figure out which pitchers were victims of bad luck and fielding, and which hitters are having some unsustainable success.   However, baseball is an elaborate game.  You can do all this work, analyze all these players, and have a pretty good idea of what should happen over a large sample of data and still have completely no idea what’s going to happen in any given moment.  The cliche is that baseball is a marathon and not a sprint, but truthfully it’s probably like a whole bunch of sprints crammed together.  You can make some pretty good educated guesses about who’s going to win the marathon, but each individual sprint is pretty much a crap shoot.

 

Ultimately everyone wants to see their team win the marathon, but most of the enjoyment comes from watching them win some of those individual sprints.  A thrilling pitching matchup or a walk-off home run can be as exciting in 2012 as it was in 2006, or 1986.  This is sort of the baseball opposite of missing the forest for the trees.  We can get so focused on which teams are the best in a division or which individual players are the best that we miss that sometimes things happen in the individual games and matchups that are awesome and fun to watch.  It doesn’t matter that Andres Torres may not be a very good major leaguer; he can still go 3-4 in one game with two home runs.  Mike Pelfrey’s barely an above average pitcher, but he’s capable of pitching a complete game with 3 hits.  This is especially true in April and May when you’ve just gotten into the forest and trying to figure out what the whole place looks like is just silly; relax and look at the trees!

 

Even the 1962 Mets played some thrilling games.  That’s the beauty of baseball.  Maybe Santana comes back rejuvenated and strikes out every batter he faces on the way to a Mets playoff berth.  Maybe adjusting the walls make no difference and the Mets struggle to hit for power.  Either way I promise you there will be fun Mets baseball this summer.  At least 162 magical opportunities to see something you haven’t seen before.   Who knows, maybe this is the year the Mets finally pitch that illusive no-hitter.  Would you want to miss it because you have the Mets penciled in for last place and decided to spend your Saturday afternoon in June at the zoo?

 

 

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Well, It _Is_ Still Early

Spin? What spin? The Mets played horribly on this homestand.  At least there is nowhere to go but up!  All teams play with a long season with peaks and valleys.  The Mets have started out in the valley, but I’m not, and neither is anyone else, going to be able to give them a fair evaluation until they’ve had a peak to compliment it.  If they counter the 4-9 start with a 10-2 stretch, it puts them in a completely different stage than if their pinnacle is a 8-4 stretch.  The adage is you’re never as bad as you look when you’re losing and never as good as you look when you’re winning.   It might be smart to give them more than 8% of the season before we go insane trying to quantify the team.

So take solace that any ten, or 13, game stretch does not make or break a season, and definitely not one in April.

The Mets cannot play this badly all season, the pitchers will get better, will settle in.

The offense has actually looked pretty good for the most part.  Willie Harris mostly stinks, and Brad Emaus hasn’t really shown much, but Daniel Murphy has and Jason Bay will be back in a couple of weeks.

It’s a long season, with many ups and downs.  So we started on a bit of a downer, but that doesn’t mean their aren’t peaks ahead.  What’s that quote from Fight Club?

“It’s only after you‘ve lost everything that you‘re free to do anything.”

Now hopefully the Mets can stop playing like they’re sleepwalking through the game and generate some wins.

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Mets New Fundraising Plan: Sell The Blogs

Much has been made of the Mets current financial woes, but I’ve recently learned of a new plan they have to raise some money.  Starting on Opening Day the Mets are going to start a new concession booth at Citi Field out in the center field concourse.  This new stand will sell new and used Mets blogs at a reasonable price.

 

First up is the esteemed blog, Read the Apple.  In what is perhaps a misinterpreted understanding of common adages, the Mets believe if they sell an Apple a day, it’ll keep the doctors away.  Health is a key component to a successful Mets season, and they’re doing everything they can.

Eat The Apple

 

All articles featuring The Apple are fictitious. No Mets were harmed in the writing of this story.  Optimistic Mets Fan would like to thank The Apple, and the Academy, for awarding us a prestigious Fonzie award.

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Pitching Wins

Pitching wins.  That’s the common refrain around baseball, and there is a lot of truth to it.  So while many Mets fans may have been upset that the Mets offense is struggling, even against position players in a 20 inning game, I’m ecstatic that the pitching has been so good.  It’s too early to tell for sure on the starters.  Some velocity numbers seem suspect, but static numbers do not tell you everything.  Pitch counts, and pitch speeds, are something that many managers and baseball experts are still working on.  20 years ago these things were barely more important than who won the airplane race.  (On a side note, I kinda miss the airplane race.  It was so perfect for the Mets, since Jets from LaGuardia fly over constantly.) Let’s give some guys a couple of starts to build up arm strength and get the early season jitters out of the way before we judge what they’re capable of for the season.

If the pitching is going to be this good, the Mets are going to rise to great heights.  Santana is going to win games; I really don’t think there is anything to worry about with him.  He’s had a little less velocity than we would like so far, but he’s also fresh back from surgery, and a slow starter.  He did get up to 92 by the end of his appearance Saturday, and I hope it’s just a matter of getting his arm strength up to mid-season form.  You could probably say the same thing about Oliver Perez, who looked masterful the night before.  Perez mixed and matched pitches and location and speeds like a pro.  Like Santana.  He was _nothing_ like the Ollie we know.  He wasn’t good Ollie, or bad Ollie.  He was just a pitcher doing his thing.  There wasn’t wildness, or getting unfocused.  He was pitching, not throwing, as the adage goes.

There’s not enough to say about Pelfrey.  He’s amazing.  He leads the team in ERA, in wins, even in saves!  He threw a masterful game in the low-oxygen Colorado game, threw a bullpen early Saturday and then still demanded the ball from Manuel in the 20th inning for the save on Satuday.  If there’s anybody on the team you’re ready to say “Throw out 2009, it’s 2010 now and that’s what counts” with, it’s Pelfrey.

Now, the offense hasn’t been great.  However, the offense is also underperforming.  Bay, Pagan, Castillo, Reyes are all better players than they’ve played so far, and there is little reason to think they won’t get better.  That will win games. They’re 4-7 right now and once the offense clicks they could easily rattle off a winning streak.  Once we get Murphy back, or Murphy comes back and doesn’t improve and Ike shows up, the offense will get a boost as well.  Like Murphy or not, he’s not the automatic strikeout that Jacobs is.

A lot hinges on tonight.  Every other pitcher has shown that they’re going to put up some good games this year.  Even Niese’s quality start is perfectly acceptable out of the 5th guy.  Maine is the only holdout, and after scrapping the changes that didn’t work this spring, he’ll revert to what’s given him success in the past.  It might be too soon to expect him to have that nailed down and for him to pitch a gem, but a competitive game over six innings or so that gives the Mets ample opportunity to win the game would be a great start.

The offense will work itself out, but if the pitching can do what it’s started to show it can do, this 4-7 record will be a mere slow start in a great season.