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RyanHoward-Rod

I like my title, shame you won’t see that on the back pages of the Post.

K-Rod.

Pretty much the best closer in the game. At least arguably. Definitely the bets Free Agent relief pitcher on the market, and as much as I’m reluctant to always try to ‘buy’ the best team, this was the right move. I’m not nearly as excited about it as I was Santana, but I’m fully of the mind that if Wagner doesn’t get hurt, the Mets win the division, and probably the Phillies don’t win the Series.

Omar filled the biggest hole with the biggest plug. We still need a a bunch of relievers, but I don’t think they need to be big name guys. Pull in a bunch of guys from the minors, waivers, other teams, rule-5, wherever, and see who can thrive in this system with these coaches and players.

The last two starters should be the next priority. I wouldn’t be against Pedro/Ollie. Not both, but one of them. Perez is probably the better option, but his consistency is infuriating and overly taxing on the bullpen’s piece of mind. I don’t trust Niese to step in and be a reliable 5th starter. I think they should assume he’ll be the guy that’ll get called up when they need a 6th, or a fill in guy when someone needs to skip a start. I’m not overly concerned with who it is, but It’d be nice to have another big innings guys so the bullpens innings can be kept down.

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Losingest Team in MLB

The Phillies are one of the oldest baseball teams, and have lost the most games.  They found lightning in a bottle in their bullpen this year, and the teams they faced, which weren’t the top teams in the game, were unable to exploit their weaknesses.  They played a strong September and October, much like the Rockies last year, or the Cardinals the year before.  They won.  It sucks. I take solace in that they only get one title a century, and they’ve used up this one’s only eight years in. 

My money’s on 20,000 losses before the third championship.
However, from a rivalry standpoint, this just amps it up.  Despise years and chances, both teams have two.  Phillies fans aren’t going to discard their hatred for us, and we know they only come out when they’re winning.  But now we’ve grown an intense dislike for them too.  This could get interesting.  Or the Phillies could pack it in and place fourth next year, and the rivalry, like the Phillies themselves, will be a flash in the pan.
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First Offseason Move

Well, Omar’s poised to make his first mistake of the off season. Hopefully it’s his only mistake. I have confidence he’ll do what’s needed to improve this team, without caving to what whiny fans think is the best course of action. However, keeping Manuel who failed as a bench coach, failed as an interim manager, and may have even failed as a leader in the clubhouse and managed a team that was succeeding and cruising, even without Billy Wagner, and managed to have them crash and burn again.

Luckily managers don’t have that big an impact, and if you give anybody the right players they can’t succeed. If the bullpen did, or will, pitch well enough that Manuel doesn’t have to constantly tamper with it, he won’t be able to screw it up. Maybe if he resides over a spring training for real, he won’t treat next September like one.

Omar’s decisions can only get better from here.

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Can’t win them all

Wow.  Bummer of a weekend.  It turns out this team is roughly the same team as last year.  I’d originally thought the bullpen was better, but without Wagner, it just isn’t.  The bigger deal is that the Brewers seem to be freefalling again, like last year.  It’s shocking that the Phillies beat them in 4 games, but the Mets at least still have a two game in the loss lead.  One of those games is to night. 

 

I’m still not worried, this has been the trend for most of the season.  They’d get a little good run going, and the Phillies would struggle a bit.  Then it’d reverse, and the Phillies would catch back up.  But each cycle of this, the Mets seemed to gain a little bit of ground.  In July and early August, the Mets would get to a game or two lead, and lose it again.  Now they’re getting a three of four game lead, and letting it dwindle down to one or two.  I still think it’s likely the Mets win by four, and I think it’s entirely probable that the Phillies lose 3 games this week.  If the Mets can lose less than that, or go 5-2, next week they’ll be a solid three games up with a week to play. 

 

The biggest problem is still that the bullpen is unsettled.  Last year at this time, we didn’t know who to go with when.  Maybe because they were all struggling or hurt.  This year it appears to be the same story.  For the most part guys like Ayala and Stokes have been solid since coming here, but is that something that’s going to be the norm?  Or are they going to be tired out from being the go-to guys, and by the final weekend, we won’t know who to call on in a tight spot? 

 

The Mets have had plenty of opportunity to put this division away.  There have been a game here and there that they just let get away, gave up early, or couldn’t shut the door on.  They could easily be in a position that the Phillies wouldn’t even be sending out ticketing emails about coming to see their playoff push. 

 

However, it is what it is.  Let’s see the Mets end this this week, play TWO games better than the Phillies, and enter the final week four games up. The Cubs have a magic number of seven, and likely will be using those four games against the Mets for rest and setting up for the playoffs.  Just like it’s been each of the last three seasons, the division is there for the Mets taking.  

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Pitching Holding Up

More bad news on the Billy Wagner front, as it looks like he’ll need some more time to deal with his elbow issues, but the Mets continue to find ways to win. This is much different than the first two or three months of the season, when the Mets were finding ways to lose. Of course it’s against bad teams, but the Mets do have a good record against good teams too.

I’m pretty sure Manuel was spinning his normal tall tales when he talked about moving a starter to the bullpen, but the media, the fans, and the blogosphere can’t seem to stop talking about it. I don’t think it’s likely, despite Maine’s longevity problems lately. I’d much rather see the Mets throw whatever relief pieces they have in the minors, particularly after roster’s expand, against the wall and see what sticks. Maybe all Ayala needs is a change of scenery, and he can make an impact here. If we want to talk John Maine to the bullpen for October, that’s certainly something to think about once the Phillies fall out of it.

The Phillies are probably due for another upswing after a bunch of losses, and it’s important for the Mets to stay ahead of them. This way when the Phillies struggles resurface, which is pretty much inevitable, they can lengthen the lead and start really pulling away. It’s hard to think the bullpen could possible be worse, and any improvement in the team can only make it stronger. Despite being second in the league to the Cubs in runs scored, the Mets have struggled with big hits with RISP.

The biggest factor in thinking the Mets will take this division..semi-easily.., is that the Mets seem to have made the case that they can beat anyone and can win in a variety of ways. Conversely, the Phillies have exhibited the behavior of being able to be beat by anyone. The Phillies, particularly their starters, are very hit or miss. If their offense isn’t on that day, even the lowly Nationals can beat them, and even if their offense is on, it’s possible that their pitching will keep opponents in the game.

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Trade Deadline Looms

I worry about John Maine, but I think he’ll be okay in the end. A little shoulder stiffness is really all it is, and apparently they knew about it before hand, which means that he was able to pitch with it without hurting it further. Maybe they skip him in the rotation due to the off day, but I’m hopeful it’ll be alright in the end.

More importantly, Johan Santana stepped up after an exhausting game on Saturday where the Mets used the bullpen so roughly that Oliver Perez was warming up in the 14th inning. Santana pitched a complete game, waylaid his critics a bit, and gave the bullpen a much needed rest. They have an off day on Thursday too, so if Pelfrey can give them a lot tonight, they’ll get a nice recharge.

Another thing I’ve been thinking about as the trade deadline looms is what the Mets are to do. I am not a fan of Adam Dunn, or the “Gets on base so strike outs don’t matter” group. While I think our bullpen is excellent, I know bullpen suckiness and exhaustion were the main culprits last year. Maybe another solid arm in there is the best solution the Mets can find. There is a lot of talk of a corner outfielder, and even yesterday I thought this should’ve been the priority. I think Carlos Delgado changes that, Delgado has been playing pretty amazingly for a while now, and I don’t think it’s something he’s going to lose midseason. This Delgado is more true to form than the ones fans grew to hate in 2007 and earlier this year. If Delgado is hitting, then the offense is not as big a problem as it was, and couple that with the possibility that Church will be back soon, and the success Tatis and Endy have had filling in, we might be okay.

So my (un)professional opinion is to get a bullpen arm, and keep an eye out for a cheap outfielder too, even if it’s just someone that can get hot for a week or two, or just needs a change of scenery. Even if the bullpen arm doesn’t end up being great, it’ll distribute the work load and hopefully keep the best guys healthy and fresh for the stretch run.

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Just One Game…but a good one

Barely half a day after the horrible loss Tuesday night in Los Angeles and all the things we were complaining about have been put to rest momentarily, but hopefully for good. Situational hitting, getting hits with two outs, with runners in scoring position, tacking on runs, offense in general..all looked good in this Wednesday afternoon game. On the pitching end, the Mets took another big step, finally reaching the 9th inning with a starter. John Maine struggled a little in the 9th and didn’t get to finish, but that’s alright. John Maine has taken steps to show that he’s going to get better this year, and with Santana and Maine, forget Pedro, at the top of this rotation, it gives me a lot of confidence. It’d have been nice for Maine to get the complete game, but Peterson and Willie gave him a lot more rope than I expected, and I think that says that they agree with me about him being improved over last year. Also, the game isn’t about personal stats and 8.1 is plenty from a starter, even bad bullpens should be able to get those last two outs. The bullpen will pitch .2 innings over two days, getting some much needed rest, hopefully charging them for a strong homestand.

However, it’s just one game, and we’ve seen these flashes in other games, and other stretches. The Mets need to isolate whatever is causing the difference between these last two games, whether that be the approach at the plate, the lineup, the manager, or just plain bad luck, and figure out how to make Wednesday stick. The plane ride home just got a little bit lighter, and hopefully the off day will give them time to figure out what went right on Wednesday afternoon.

A quick note on the leadership that so many people think is absent from the Mets and their clubhouse. It’s becoming _very_ obvious to me that Reyes and Wright have taken an active role, if not a public role, in leading this team. They were the first two, as is often the case, out to the mound to congratulate Maine. When a key error gave them the final game against the Diamondbacks, Reyes and Wright, nowhere near getting up in the inning, were the first two out of the dugout to give Beltran a high five with the go-ahead run. There is so much going on in terms of team chemistry that we just don’t see, or only see through the media’s eyes, who are so obviously just searching for anything to write about. The team is under performing, so they look negative.

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A Perez Idea

An Idea

This is just an idea I had yesterday while watching the game. Oliver Perez was obviously struggling, again, late in the game. I don’t really have a problem with Willie pulling him, although I would’ve left him in, but something needs to be done with this guy. I was thinking about this in the 5th, and here’s what I would’ve liked to see.

Just leave him in.

Let him give up 15 runs. Go to the mound, tell him Heilman and Sosa are sitting back and having a soda and he’s finishing six innings no matter what happens. Perez has strived in pressure situations right? So take away the ‘safety net’ so to speak. Let him learn something about himself, and figure out how to get himself out of these situations, because it’s an important lesson a good pitcher needs to learn.

Would this be an irreparable blow to his confidence if he did give up 15 runs? I don’t really buy into that irreparable stuff anyway, but Perez has already had those in Pittsburgh before coming to the Mets and he managed to bounce back. We know he has great stuff, the problem is it’s a coin flip on whether he’ll be able to throw those great pitches. What will make him take that step to a great pitcher is being able to climb back to that peak after he’s fallen out of stride during a game/inning/batter.

With Santana, Willie can prepare to use the best guys out of the bullpen and mentally prepare for which guys are going to come in that day, because Santana will pitch to within an inning or so of expectation nine out of ten times. Even John Maine usually can be expected to be pretty consistent, even if that consistency is a lower amount of reliable innings. However, with Perez there is still always that possibility that he walks 14 batters in the second inning and you need to piece together the rest of the game. If Willie leaves Perez in there last night, maybe he learns something. Or maybe we lose the game, which we did anyway, and the bullpen gets an extra inning of rest that it might need for tonight.

Getting Perez and most of the starters an extra inning or two I think could be the biggest key to this season. It would allow Willie to use his relievers that are struggling less, and able to go with the hot guys. It doesn’t matter what bullpen you have, if you have to use too many pitchers in one game, likely someone won’t be on his game that day.

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Aggressiveness and Finding the Balance

This team still feels like it’s trying to find that right balance between aggressive and sloppy. The problem seems to be, and this was probably the case last year too, is that when they’re unsure they’re leaning towards aggressive, which leads to sloppy mistakes like forgetting to check a runner back to third, or breaking for the plate like Clark did on the double play Sunday. It translates into hitting too. This is why I don’t believe, and never did, that the team was ever ‘flat’ or ‘uninterested’.

They played hard last September, and they are playing hard now. Maybe too hard. Think about how often Reyes was thrown out last September. He wasn’t doing it just for stats, or selfishness, he was playing aggressively, trying to make things happen, just like _everyone_ says he should do/does. So what happened this year? He seems to be trying to tone down the aggressiveness a little bit, be smarter, but so far it’s not working. Just like it didn’t work when they tried to change how he ran. Reyes, like the rest of the team, needs to find that balance of aggressiveness and smart baseball, and when they do the difference is going to be remarkable.

The difference this year is that last year they succeeded with the aggressiveness early, and maybe they stubbornly stuck to it when it turned bad. This year it’s failing for them early, and they’ll be able to adjust to it and turn it around. It’s not Willie’s fault either. He can only teach, he can’t execute. If they players can’t execute on what they’re being taught, it doesn’t really matter who or what they’re being coached to do. However, this team is too good, and wants it too much, to not be able to execute all season. I thought as much before this season, but so far it doesn’t look like Atlanta or Philadelphia is capable of running away with the division to a point where the Mets can’t catch up; In fact, neither team is ahead of the Mets in the standings.

The biggest concern I have is still the bullpen. Even if Sanchez is as good as he was two years ago, he’s going to almost definitely replace either Muniz or Smith on the roster, and both of those guys have been good. It’s Heilman, who you hope will turn it around like he always does, Schoeneweis and Sosa who have been the biggest culprits, and they won’t be replaced. As the weather gets warmer and the pitchers get more comfortable, I have to believe both Maine, Santana, and hopefully Perez and maybe even Pelfrey will be able to go a little deeper into games more consistency, and allow Willie to more regularly use only the top three or so guys in the bullpen who are doing well, instead of routinely having to trot out the 5th and 6th best relief options they have.

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it’s 2008 and the Mets win

Last night’s game had questionable managing decisions, some poor plays, some inability to hit in the clutch, or to execute in certain situations at the plate, and even some base-running issues. The Phillies had all of these problems, and they lost because of it. It was a rough and tumble series, but the Mets take two of three. Naysayers may want to question how they won them, but that doesn’t matter, just that they did. If you want to go back to last year.. And I really don’t want to go back to last year, it doesn’t help anything. Just as going back to 2006 didn’t help the 2007 team. If you go back to last year, plenty of those games against the Phillies could’ve gone on the other way on some very minor things.

It’s the bullpen that’s important, and despite Wise’s home run, despite Heilman’s struggles, it looks like the Mets have started trying to take the right steps into addressing this issue. The bullpen was the strength in 2006, and we need more consistency out of it this year. Part of this is getting starters deeper into games, but part of it is also one or two more guys stepping up and being able to execute when Willie calls on them. Did the Mets lack fight last year? I don’t know that they did, there were plenty of games where they came back two or three times in a game, only to have the bullpen blow it again and again. That can be mentally exhausting, just like amping yourself up for a fight and having your pitcher pitch you into a deep hole in the first inning can do. This isn’t an excuse by any means, but the Mets have the tools, the attitude, the leadership and the drive to win, and they’ve had it all along; You just have to know where to look.