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More Pressure For a Quick Start

ike davisIt’s not just Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya that have to worry about fast starts to the season or their jobs being in jeopardy.  The same case could be made for Jeff Francoeur,perez Daniel Murphy, and Rod Barajas.  The way Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, and Josh Thole have been playing in a way this spring that makes you suspect they’ll be knocking at the door to Citi Field sooner rather than later.

With Reyes possibly being out some, or all, of April the pressure on the starting pitching has just doubled.  The most recent report on April suggests that he may be back closer to mid April, but that’s still a rough estimate.

We’ve known for a while that the season was going to hinge on the starting pitching.  The offense was projected to be one of the top in the league, and surely would’ve won some games on it’s own even when the pitching struggled.  With Reyes and Beltran out, they may not have that cushion for a while, but this doesn’t mean the Mets are doomed to a 9-13 type record to start the season.

The fast start is more important than ever, and if Maine, Perez, and Pelfrey can have a good month of April the Mets will still win games.  We all know they’re each capable of pitching good games.  It was expected before the season that they could definitely pitch competitively and keep us in games, but now they may be pressured to actually win the games.  Instead of quality start performances and limiting the opponents to three runs over six innings, stepping up and going seven innings and occasionally limiting the other teams to merely one or two runs becomes important to the Mets early success.

This isn’t to say the Mets lineup is useless, and that they won’t occasionally put up a crooked number, but Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are two of the most irreplaceable players in the game today.  The season is never won and lost in April, but if the pitching can step up and win more games than they lose, not only will it minimize the damage caused by losing Reyes and Beltran, it will set them up nicely once they return.

This post, and vibrant discussion about it, also featured on The Real Dirty Mets Blog.

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Aftershocks of the 2009 Mets Season

aftershockThe 2009 season for the Mets was a disaster.  After careful review, it appears that the specific type of disaster was earthquake.  Even after the disastrous season ended we’ve been hit with aftershocks.  Aftershocks are known as smaller earthquakes that follow after the original quake, not to be confused with the alcohol beverage that was needed for us fans to get through the season.  They can still be dangerous, but generally get smaller and farther apart as time goes on.

Carlos Beltran’s scoped knee surgery was the first aftershock of the 2009 disaster.  While final damage totals are not yet in for this one, it’s expected he’ll miss up to a month of real time.  The last report I heard suggested that he’d be cleared to resume baseball activities right around the time the Mets head north for Opening Day.

The Jose Reyes Thyroid aftershock hit last week, when blood work revealed that Reyes has an overactive thyroid.  The results and treatment for this are still being determined, but many opinions suggest that it shouldn’t be a big deal and he can get back to playing soon.  This smaller aftershock was still upsetting, but it seems like it won’t be one that did much damage.

Other smaller aftershocks have occurred throughout Spring Training for the Mets.  Francisco Rodriguez came down with pink eye, pinkeyebut didn’t become a zombie.  Fernando Tatis is batting some knee issues, and Nick Evans strained his forearm.  Neither is considered serious and Frankie is back and pitching again.

The big thing to remember here is it’s not 2009 anymore.  You can check the calendar if you don’t believe me.  Every tweak or setback or injury is not indicative of disaster, and the bad luck that plagued the Mets in 2009 was just that; bad luck.  The way Reyes did not adequately recover from his hamstring injuries has nothing to do with what his thyroid may or may not be doing right now, and the bone bruise that Beltran had does not relate to his recovery from having his knee scoped in the off season.  Right now we’re still in limbo waiting on how Reyes will be treated by doctors and when he’ll get back down to Florida to continue Spring Training, but once he does everything will be alright.  Soon it will be time for baseball to count, and we can start obsessing over wins and losses and pitching performances and home run totals instead of thyroid levels and pink eye symptoms.

Visit The Real Dirty Mets Blog for lively discussion on this, and other, Mets topics.

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Staying Positive on Beltran

Everyone’s down after the news that Carlos Beltran had surgery on his knee and will likely miss Opening Day, and probably most of April.  The one thing we were all hoping for in 2010 is that we could go into the season healthy, with a full team on the field, and start feeling good about the Mets again; Positive about the Mets again.  This doesn’t help that cause.

I’m going to ignore most of the off-field drama for now.  There is a still a lot that we don’t know, about who knew what, what the doctors said, how much the Mets knew or didn’t know, and when Beltran started feeling pain.  We know he told Kevin Burkhardt in November that he felt no pain.  His knees started acting up again and he had surgery.  We’ll go from there.

We haven’t gotten a solid figure on recover time yet.  The common figure seems to be around 12 weeks to baseball activity, whatever that means.  Is that another month past the 12 weeks to be on the field with the Mets?  It’s roughly 12 weeks to Opening Day, so we’re basically talking about most or all of April.  If the prognosis is closer to 8-12 weeks, maybe he can be back sooner.  Maybe it’s not as serious as all that.  I don’t think we’ll really know until we see how Beltran feels in March. 

The events of 2009 have given us no reason to believe anything the Mets, or anyone, says about recovery time and return to action.  I don’t see how we can do anything else right now.  Beltran is irreplaceable and if he’s out for longer than April, things could get murky.  Angel Pagan has played very well with the Mets, and while he’s no Beltran, the team can be successful with him in CF temporarily.  Fernando Martinez could become a factor too, if he shows something amazing in Spring Training.  Of all the possible contigency plans, that has to be the most exciting one. 

For now, I’m going to stay upbeat and cross my fingers about all things going well from here on out, and Beltran being on the field by May 1st.  A-Rod missed April for the Yankees last year.  Championships aren’t won in April.  The Mets need to get another solid pitcher, and it looks like they should find another solid lefty OF bat for the bench.  I have good feelings on Mike Pelfrey and John Maine based on some stuff I’ve heard from them, and if both of them pitch well in 2010 it would actually overcome the lost offense from Beltran to Pagan.

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E. T. Phone Home

Tonight reminded me of the movie E.T., when E.T. and Elliot are both in the hospital and seem to be linked. The link is broken and Elliot begins to recover, but E.T. doesn’t, being out of his element. So went tonight.

After eight innings of baseball, the Mets were deflated by Billy Wagner giving up the game tying home run, and Chase Utley drives in the tying run in the top of the 9thin Florida for the Phillies. Things seem as bad as they could be, but then that link is broken and the Phillies to whom first place is as alien as Earth was to E.T., will soon be back where they belong.

The Marlins storm right back and set the Phillies down with a walk off grand slam. The link has been broken and it takes a little time before the Mets recover, in the bottom of the 13th, with Beltran’s sixth walk off home run of his career. Beltran’s last walk off two run home run was against those very same Phillies back on May 23rd of 2006. This was a long time ago, back when players like Steve Trachsel were still on this team,but we’ve been looking for turning points all season and maybe all the symmetry associated with this win is what they truly needed.

There was energy, determination, fight, and all sorts of good qualities during this game. Don’t forget that Castillo was on base and Beltran at the plate because of a fielding error at third base, so the Mets were capitalizing on errors too. Beltran also had a key two-run single, on a clean line drive to center, earlier in this game to start the scoring. This hit also came after an error charged to Brandon Webb allowed Castillo to reach base after Reyes got the call from the ump on a close play at first. You take what breaks you can get and do the most with them.

Team chemistry? It’s something that’s not easy to tell from the outside, but teams that don’t like each other don’t pass out papers with formulas to make the playoffs. Do you think fans could stop getting on Carlos Beltran? The guy is great, I don’t know where we’d be without him. He had a little power outage, and he had a little bit of a struggle getting runners in from scoring position lately, but so did everyone. Beltran is as vitally important to this team right now as Wright and Reyes.

Wagner’s blown save may have been a punch to the stomach as Gary Cohen said, but Carlos Beltran coughed up the disappointing start to the season and booted it out of the ballpark in the 13th.

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Tidbits from the Tatis-ed

So much to talk about after this game. It was probably the best feeling after a game in a while. That said, there is still a long way to go to restore faith and confidence.

Beltran. Metsblog.com quoted a statistic that Beltran was betting .301 in May. That’s pretty good, so stop killing him. He also got a big big hit tonight, again.

Tatis. Remember when we were screaming about how we thought Tatis was going to make this team over Pagan? Not that I don’t like Pagan, but maybe Omar actually does know what he’s doing.

Is it just me, or is SNY making a point of showing Willie Randolph after good moments more? Also, Willie made some excellent managerial decisions tonight. If he doesn’t put on the hit and run in the 12th, the Mets very well might lose this game.

A lot of us have been down on Endy, which I think reflects our overall feelings on the team. But maybe we should lay off a bit and let Endy be Endy. Maybe Willie was right when he said he just needs to get Chavez going.

Sanchez gained some velocity today which Amezaga was able to turn around on him and hit over the fence, but it’s still nice to see Sanchez building his strength up. It was also terrific to see him run hard on his sacrifice bunt.

Speaking of energy, if it ever was really gone, it’s also definitely still there. Beltran was pissed when he popped up the first pitch late in the game. Sanchez had some drive and energy. Tatis couldn’t have looked more excited as he ran around first. Reyes looked a little more relaxed today. There were signs of life all over the place.

Hanley Ramirez’s lame little pseudo-Reyes home run dance with Amezaga was pathetic. I’m really growing to hate that guy.

And of course, finally a nice come from behind win. Twice.

I’m not going to try to over-analyze this game and claim the Mets have turned a corner. They certainly have turned a corner, but they are still at the beginning of the maze.

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Important Quotes

“I have to enjoy my game and be the way I am,” Reyes said. “I can’t worry about the other team getting mad because other teams they do that, what we do they do it, too. I don’t care about that. I just care about this team.”

“We don’t care if these other teams get offended,” Beltran said. “We’re going to play the game like that.”

This is what I like to see. My team, enjoying the game, playing the game hard, and winning the game. I don’t care about Philadelphia or Atlanta or anything they have to say. Or any other team for that matter. The Mets should take these quotes, and focus on their own game and not worry so much about the media-fueled drivel that is sent their way.

On a side note, shouldn’t John Maine have beaned Belliard last night?

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Good.

Beltran’s making statements now? Good. I love it. I’m glad he thinks the Mets are the team to beat. They are. They own this division. This was my favorite part.

“I don’t care,” Beltran said. “They boo me in Houston. One more city won’t make a difference.”

Good. Stop worrying about what fans think and just take what belongs to you. Maybe Willie’s right when he suggested you becoming a father gave you confidence.

It’s still February and I’m starting to feel some strong magic with this team..March 31st can’t come soon enough.

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7 game series

I was right. The Mets gained ground in the division race over the road trip. If I had any nagging doubts about this team, they’re gone now. The playoffs are decided on a best of seven series, and the Mets just played one against two teams that will likely be participants and opponents. The Mets won, winning game seven where they failed last year.

Now they come home to play the Nationals and Pirates. Hopefully they can continue this stretch of play and pick up more games in the division. They’re currently on pace to win 91 games, but with a good stretch run they can easily win more than that. The trade deadline arrives soon, and with it hopefully another little piece to this team.

I like the way David Wright is swinging the bat. He looks like he’s in a good place right now, a place where you can get the big hits and carry this team a little bit if he needs to. If the opposition starts pitching around him, hopefully Carlos Delgado can make them pay. Delgado is working on a eight game hitting streak, and has hit in 12 of his last 13 games. This is the kind of consistency that was missing from him all year, and while he only has two home runs in that stretch It gives more more confidence then when he hits a bunch of home runs over a weekend, but then stops hitting again. I’ve predicted that Delgado would atone for his slow start with a hot finish; I expect by the start of October for him to be right in his groove.

Could the worry warts please shut up about Beltran? I know his average is a little low, but he’s playing well. I have been very busy lately, and haven’t had a chance to really sit down and just watch a baseball game, but whenever I do it seems like Beltran is coming through with a big hit. Don’t compare him to the small sample size with Houston in the playoffs, don’t equate a dollar value to production ratio based on his contract. Take him for what he is; a great player, but not the only great player, on this team.

I’ve been saying it for a little while now, I think we may have gotten all we’re going to get out of Jorge Sosa. With Pedro vanishing into the Carribean, and Pelfrey being a strain on our offense I’m not sure what the solution is here. Maybe Sosa turns it around, but even if he doesn’t, I don’t want any sort of panic moves out of Minaya that bring a mediocre starter in here at the expense of any worthwhile prospects. Maybe he can pull off something like last year where he pulled in Perez and Maine from seemingly nowhere.

A day off, and then I’ll be on the field level at Shea for Tuesday night’s game. I’ll get to see John Maine pitch again, who after a couple of iffy performances is going to settle down again. I expect to see the offense play well again, and I fully expect it to be a fun day.

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Carlos Beltran’s Key Met Moments

Carlos Beltran had a miserable first season with the Mets, but since thing he’s been a big part of the team. He doesn’t like to be in the spotlight, or to be the star player, but he’s had some big impact games and single-handedly won a couple of games for the Mets over the last couple of years. There are a couple that come to mind.

  1. On May 23rd 2006 against the Philadelphia Phillies at Shea, Carlos Beltran launched a long homer over the Mets bullpen in the 16th inning to send everyone home. No one else seemed to be getting to Ryan Madsen, who was in his 7th inning of relief at that point, and even earned a start for the Phillies off of that performance.

  1. Game 1 of the NLCS in 2006. A classic pitchers duel. The only two runs scored by the Mets off of a Carlos Beltran home run down the line.

  1. Sunday, April 29th, 2007. Carlos Beltran’s home run is the only run scored in a terrifically pitched game. John Maine gets the win, but Beltran was just as important.

  1. Thursday, May 17th, 2007. Carlos Beltran has a pinch-hit walk as part of the Mets 5-run come from behind rally against the Cubs.

  1. Saturday, June 23rd, 2007. Lost among the Paul Lo Duca ejection was a key single to left field by Beltran that would’ve scored the only run of the game, had Ricky Ledee not gotten thrown out at the plate.

  1. Saturday, July 7th, 2007. Beltran smacks a single to right field to score Jose Reyes with the go-ahead run in the top of the 17th with the Mets quickly running out of pitchers. Beltran also made a terrific catch on the hill in center field in the bottom of 14th to rob Luke Scott of a walk-off hit.

His ability to come through when he’s needed (game 7 aside, no one’s perfect, even Babe Ruth has ended a post season with a caught stealing.) is going to play a huge role in where the Mets go this year. He’s able to play great defense, and his playoff performance with the Astros can’t be overlooked. He’s a solid contributor to this team, and most of the difference in his numbers from last year are a result of the inconsistency of the rest of the lineup.

Reyes is going through one of his mini-slumps, but Wright’s been hitting well. Carlos Delgado seems to be picking it up a little bit, but he’s teased us with that before. The Mets outfield is beat up, but after the All-Star break I expect we’ll get to see some of Lastings Milledge, which could add some excitement. The last I heard Moises Alou was on the road back, but I haven’t heard much since then. I think these days off will really help Delgado, and he’ll have his best half-season as a Met yet. Endy and Gomez will probably be lost until September, but they should be around for October, when they can both play key roles.

Hopefully the Mets can end this half with another win, and go to the All-Star break with the attitude that the worst is over. I look forward to seeing the Mets starting on Tuesday night, and after they scored and drove in the only runs last year, seeing if the rest of the league can help them out this year. The more World Series games at Shea, the better a chance I have at getting (more, I’m already guaranteed one game) tickets.

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Halfway Mark – Projections

Midseason Projections

Some interesting notes. The Mets had a bad June, and without a swoon like that in the second half, I forsee these numbers being a little higher. If they have a better second half than first, Carlos Beltran and David Wright both have a chance to be 30 Home Run and 30 Stolen Base guys. Another key note is that Scott Schoeneweis should have significantly less IP than Feliciano, and he doesn’t. Heilman’s not been very good this year, but somehow he’s the most used reliever. Maybe he just needs a little more rest to be the most effective. I left out Aaron Sele because he’s horrible, but his numbers look like 51.1 IP with 74 hits. That’s really all you need to know about him. I want to see Feliciano, and even Smith get more pitching, rest Heilman a little more and Schoeneweis a lot more.

Player

AVG

OBP

SLG

Hits

R

2B

HR

RBI

SB

BB

Jose Reyes

.316

.397

.453

208

114

34

8

68

80

90

Carlos Delgado

.229

.293

.418

140

78

38

26

90

4

50

Carlos Beltran

.271

.346

.475

164

90

32

28

100

26

72

David Wright

.290

.378

.505

176

92

42

28

88

36

82

Paul Lo Duca

.280

.329

.371

148

62

18

10

48

4

32

Shawn Green

.276

.331

.436

134

70

32

14

54

12

38

Win

Loss

ERA

IP

BB

SO

HR

Hits

SV

SVO

Tom Glavine

14

12

4.39

217.1

78

104

28

228

John Maine

18

8

2.74

204

76

168

20

158

Oliver Perez

14

12

3.14

189.1

74

170

22

146

Orlando Hernandez

8

6

2.78

144.2

50

118

18

104

Jorge Sosa

14

6

3.92

128.2

46

76

12

110

Aaron Heilman

12

6

4.19

77.1

18

58

12

70

6

Joe Smith

4

0

2.73

66

32

66

2

56

Billy Wagner

2

0

1.73

62.2

18

98

8

48

32

34

Scott Schoeneweis

0

4

5.46

59.1

40

30

10

64

2

Pedro Feliciano

2

2

1.76

61.1

30

52

2

34

2

2