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Optimistic Notes for the Phillies Series

Cole Hamels is 2-8 in 13 starts against the Mets, with a 1.513 WHIP. David Wright has a .962 OPS against him in 37PA.  In 33 PA, Beltran has an OPS of 1.041 with three home runs.

The Mets get the end of the Phillies rotation, so Wednesday Mike Pelfrey pitches against Joe Blanton.

Shane Victorino hurt his calf on Saturday.  He still came in and played a couple of innings at the end of Sunday’s game, but it’s possible his range will be a tick off in center, or that he’ll be a step slower on the bases.

 Jose Reyes has good career numbers at Citizen’s Bank Park, and against the Phillies.

Chase Utley hasn’t had a magical recovery and second base is still manned mainly by Wilson Valdez.

In 16 innings, Francisco Rodriguez has yet to allow a run against the Phillies.

Carlos Beltran, in 42 AB, has an OPS of .857 against Roy Halladay.  Reyes, in 20 PA, has an OPS of 1.239.

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Letters to the NL East, Part 5, Dear Mets…

Letters to the NL East, Part 5.

 

Dear Beloved New York Mets,

 

Get angry.  Seemingly everyone is against you and no one believes in you, but just because circumstances have worked against you recently doesn’t mean you’re out already for 2011.  What do the experts know?  It’s finally time to actually play some baseball, something you’re all pretty good at.  It’s time to surprise some people.  I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a division winner, with the clinching game coming on Sunday September 25th the Phillies on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.  Bobby Valentine will call the action.

 

David Wright says you need to practice beating teams and getting that swagger and confidence back.  Do it.  The first nine games are against the Marlins, the Nationals, and the Phillies.  With the Phillies you get Hamels who pitches poorly against the Mets, Blanton who’s not very good, and Roy Halladay. It’s the perfect opportunity to get off to a fast start, get Bay and Paulino back, get guys healthy and on track, and start doling out punishment.

 

Remember, as much as the media wants to write about the Mets being in disrepair, the financial mess, and all the recycled story lines about grit and soft players that they’ve used in the past, if you give them a different story to write they’ll run with that too.  People still write about the 1986 team, of which it’s the 25th anniversary of, because their story of beating up on the league and being unapologetic about it was fun to write.  So give the writers a story about redemption and revenge.   Cast the team, and Wright, as David versus Goliath.  Treat everyone as the enemy and don’t let up.

 

The best thing about this team is it’s depth and balance.   There aren’t a lot, if any, bad players on this team.  No Jeff Francoeur, no Gary Matthews Jr.  There are a variety of relievers that could’ve made the team that are waiting around in Port St. Lucie, and there are seemingly a half dozen different outfield prospects that could show up at any given time.  Sure, no one ran away with the second base job, but no one threw it away either.  Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner and even Ruben Tejada are right around the corner, or at the end of the dugout, should Emaus not be the guy.  Your worst pitcher is either a second year prospect who could come close to 200 Ks, or a former All-Star who pitched to a sub-4 ERA in 66 innings last year in returning from injury.

 

You are not going to be easy to beat this year, and with some discipline and health, you could make it a really exciting season.   Remember, no one gets a handicap for winning the division last year, or for having the best team on paper.  It’s time to play the games.

 

Your Excited Supporter,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

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Letters to the NL East, Part 4, Dear Phillies…

Letters to the NL East, Part 4.

Dear Phillies,

 

Is Chase Utley enjoying his rocking chair?  Let me warn you now, you’re going to say “Once everyone gets healthy” a lot while the Mets and Braves distance themselves from you in the division.

 

Good job offering Cliff Lee the most money per year, and keeping him from the Yankees.  You see, they’d score runs for him.  I find it hard to believe that you are  better off with Lee than with Werth.  Ibanez’s power seems to be vanishing and he’s aging quickly.  Rollins hasn’t really been good in three years, he’s batting third in the lineup yet has a .258 AVG, and .320 OBP over the last three years.  You’re using whatever warm bodies you could find for right field and second base.

 

You’ve got great pitching, but none of them are good hitters.  Also, every year dozen

s of great pitchers have sub-par years, get hurt, or get no run support.  Will Hamels rising walk rate make him ineffective? Will Oswalt’s back hold up? Roy Halladay threw 750 innings over the last three years, not including Spring Training.  That’s a lot of wear and tear on an arm.

 

Your a talented team, more talented than your fans deserve, but you don’t have a lot of depth and aren’t built to handle injuries.  But injuries happen, and if you play Wilson Valdez for any extended period of time you might as well shoot yourself in the foot now.

 

And that bullpen! No Lidge, you’ve got Contreras closing for now because you can’t trust Madson.  Contreras, who’s 10 among active pitchers in wild pitches and 20th in errors, is who you’re going to trust in pressure situations.  The bullpen wasn’t good last year and it doesn’t look any better.  What’s your plan? Burn out the starters and hope they hold up all season?  You can only push an arm so much before it breaks.

 

You know what they say…the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

 

Your Bitter Rival,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

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My MLB Player Prop Bets

I made a couple more single dollar prop bets yesterday.   Nothing real fancy.
Jose Reyes – SB in the 2011 Regular Season
Over 33½ (-125)
Mariano Rivera – Total Saves in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 36 (-115)

Will any of the Big 4 win the NL Cy Young?
Big 4 include Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels
No -180
 
Cole Hamels – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 16½ (-120)

Carlos Beltran – BA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over .273 -115
Andy Pettitte – Will he pitch for the Yankees in the 2011 Regular Season
 No -200
 
 
How many of the Big 4 will win over 20 games or more in the 2011 Regular Season?
Under 1 (-115)
RA Dickey – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
 Over 11½ (-115)
 
 
Who will win more games in the regular season series between the 2 teams listed. Must play at least 15 games for action.
New York Mets +240
Competitor: Atlanta Braves

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Ceetar’s Mets Prop Bets: Make Your Picks

Here’s a list of some normal, and some abnormal, bets on the Mets this year.  Purely for fun, feel free to leave your picks in the comments. or suggest some other good over/unders.
Reyes
1. over/under .345 OBP (I suspect this may be over/under Met in 2012)
2. over/under 142 games played.
3. over/under 60 SB

Wright
4. over/under 30 HR
5. over/under 150 Ks

Bay
6. over/under 25 HR

Beltran
7. over/under 130 games played
8. over/under 25 HR
9. over/under 10 SB
10. Will Beltran or Chase Utley have more home runs this year?

K-Rod
11. over/under 55 games finished

Ike Davis
12. over/under .275 avg

13. over/under 23 HR

Jon Niese
14. over/under 200Ks

15. Who will start more games?
a. Johan Santana
b. Dillon Gee
c. Chris Young

16. Who has a better year, R.A. Dickey, or Cole Hamels?

17a. Will Emaus be the starting second baseman all year?
17b. If no, is his replacement
A. On the team
B. In the minors
C. on another team
D. Not currently playing baseball
E. Luis Castillo

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Letters to the NL East, Part 4/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 4 of 5. (part 1, part 2, part 3)

phil_phylis

Dear Philadelphia Phillies,

You suck.  That’s right, you heard me.  You’re the “popular” pick to win the division, much like the Mets were predicted to win the World Series last year.  You know what?  It doesn’t matter.  You get credit in analysts’ eyes for being there in the past, but that doesn’t actually get you any wins in 2010.

You already get one big black mark for letting Cliff Lee leave when you acquired Halladay.  Now suddenly your rotational is only marginally better, at best.  And you have at least as many question marks at the Mets.  Sure, those questions have turned out to be exclamation points in the past, but this is a different year.  Maybe Hamels was a one-hit wonder, and will continue to be merely pedestrian.  Blanton has never been anything special, and Moyer had a hot spring, but is hardly a reliable product in the rotation.  Happ is the one thing to hold on to, in that he had a really good year in his time up last year.  There is no guarantee that that will continue, that he won’t get figured out by the league and fail to adjust, that he won’t suffer the sophomore curse.

Pedro Feliz was such a solid feature at third base that I just don’t buy that Polanco is anything more than a lateral move at best.  Your bullpen is extremely suspect, and while you do have a potent offense, the Mets did match you in runs scored prior to the injury-plagued 2009.   This offseason you lock up a couple of your players to long term contracts, and coupled with letting Lee go, it’s apparent you don’t have the money to fill any holes that arrive this season.

So, while you get many props for winning the division in previous years, the calendar has turned and that buys you nothing in 2010.  You’re at the top of the hill but you’re teetering at the edge.  All it would take is one misstep, or one good push, for you to go tumbling back to obscurity.

While I’ve enjoyed having a real rival that’s both geographical close and in the same league, I don’t know if you can keep it up for long enough for us to say that Mets-Phillies is better than Yankees-Red Sox and really mean it.  The Mets have some minor injuries to start the season, so you should take advantage of it while you still can.  If you can’t start getting ahead in the race, the Mets will steamroll right by you when they’re back to full strength.

It’s going to be a fun and combative year.  Can you handle it?

Your bitter enemy,

Optimistic Mets Fan

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Battle for First

Could first place be around the corner?

mrmetphanatic

These current batch of Mets have been berated in the media and the blogs all week. “We can’t win like this” “These players aren’t very good.” Even the manager got into the act by asking for more offense and saying that it’d be tough to win with the current guys.

Despite all that, the Mets have now won two in a row, one with pitching and one with hitting. They will go into Philadelphia with a chance to take first place, sitting just one game behind the Phillies. (and the Marlins)

The Phillies aren’t playing great baseball either. In fact, the pitcher the Mets faced in Pittsburgh, Paul Maholm, has a better ERA than the Phillies ace Cole Hamels, and the two pitchers in the rotation the Mets are facing this weekend. The other pitcher, Rodrigo Lopez, is a journeyman pitcher who hasn’t pitched in the majors in two years. Lopez, coming off Tommy John surgery, signed with the Braves last year, pitching five innings in the minors, and was released at the end of the season. He’s nearly given up a home run a start in his career, which will go over well in that ballpark, and his best year came in Baltimore in 2002. He was 5-4 with a 3.91 ERA in the minors this year.

So the pitching landscape the Mets will face this weekend is not great. The lineup isn’t what it would be with Reyes, Delgado and Beltran in it, but most of these guys are still major leaguers, or prospects, and should be able to score some runs in a ballpark that lends itself to scoring runs.

The worry may be on the pitching side. Livan Hernandez has been pitching pretty well and hopefully he can keep the Phillies in the park. Fernando Nieve is basically an unknown, having had three excellent starts and one bad one. Has he been properly scouted now? Have the Phillies read the scouting reports? Or was last time just a blip, and he’ll bounce back with a good performance? Sunday is almost a must-win, with Santana on the mound. He’s a competitive guy, and nothing is more competitive than a competition for first place, against rivals, after a bad performance in his last outing. Expect good things from Santana on Sunday, which is also the halfway point in the season. Santana typically pitches well in the second half. A lot hinges on Livan tonight. The Phillies bats have been sleeping, and it would do us good not to wake them up.

Bad games, horrible losses, injuries, and bad managing in the first half can all be put aside this weekend. If the Mets play competitive baseball for these three days, the first half ends and the second half begins without any handicap or ground to make up. Beltran and Reyes may both be back before we know it, and it’d be an excellent situation to be in if they come back not to help the Mets play catchup, but to help the Mets put distance between them and whoever is in second come that point.

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The City of Brotherly Love

We arrived in Philly around noon, stopped at my friend’s condo, had some lunch, and then took the transit system, SEPTA, to the ballpark. We arrived in the top of the first, and it was weird that we were actually missing the Mets at bat. This was my first time seeing the Mets away from home, and they made me proud. The first game featured probably 30% Mets fans, so we weren’t alone. The night game was sold out for fireworks, so there were less Mets fans, but we still managed to get a “Jose, Jose” chant going for a bit before we were booed. Oddly, I only heard one “Let’s go Phillies” chant the entire day. I wasn’t hassled much either. Some girls teased us a little on the train, and we got cursed at a couple of times throughout the day, but nothing major. We were in our seats in time to see the Phillies complaining about El Duque, and could tell that he was getting angry at them. Six innings later, with the Mets out to a nice lead, he had his revenge.

The Mets bats surely woke up, in both games. The second game especially, where the Mets stranded tons of runners on base, some from some nice plays by Michael Bourn in right field. They got some hits, they got some home runs, they stole some bases, and they got some hits with runners in scoring position and two outs. The Mets have won seven of eight, put the Phillies six losses back, and are again on a roll.

The bullpen make it a little difficult in the first game, and then we hurried over to Chickie’s and Petes, which is a local sports bar. They have yummy crab fries, which I, and apparently Metsradamus, highly recommend. We also had a tower of beer, which is just like it sounds. It’s two and a half pitcher’s of beer in a tall tower with a tap on the bottom to serve yourself that sits on the table. We also had some wings, paid, and headed back to Citizen’s Bank Ballpark.

Back at the stadium I made sure to get a cheesesteak, and I had a Phillies hat full of chocolate ice cream, that I didn’t smash like the Fanatic smashed a Mets cap on the field during the game. The Mets loaded the bases in the first inning, but didn’t score. That was only the start though, Beltran blasted two runs, and the Mets chased Cole Hamels early. Not before he threw behind Reyes, leading to a wild pitch and a run. Reyes had an interesting day, he was angered by Hamels, and in the first game he was called out stealing second on what was clearly a bad call. He even stood around the base, still reluctant to actually leave the base that was rightfully his. Willie came out to argue briefly, but to no avail. Wagner was summoned after Maine gave up a double to start the 9th, even though it wasn’t a save. Wagner sadly allowed that run to score, but in a measure of revenge for his only blown save of the year, he struck out Pat Burrell to end the game.

David Wright says he will be upset of John Maine is not on the All-Star team. Only Brad Penny has more wins than him at 10, and he’s fourth in the league in ERA at 2.74. At what basically is his halfway point, he has 84 strikeouts in 102 innings. To compare, Cole Hamels has the same 9-4 record as Maine, with an ERA approaching four. To think that Maine was considered one of the Mets question marks before the season, is laughable.

I do enjoy the stadium down there, but I think it’s nothing that special. It’s a nice modern park, but nothing superb. The ball travels nicely there, and all the sight-lines are good. The Mets always hit well there, and they have much better food than at Shea. Still, when I go back to Shea later this month, I’m sure I’ll have that ‘It is good to be home’ feeling.

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Paul Lo Duca Speaks

Listening to Paul Lo Duca in his week radio interview with Joe and Evan on WFAN gave me a lot of confidence. First off he said there can be no excuses, about injuries or whatever, they’re just not playing well. He mentioned an attitude adjustment, about how maybe they were coasting a little and they’re realizing it’s not going to be as easy as last year. He also brought up how Willie had been talking to them about and it and stressing some stuff trying to get them going. A lot of his statements make me feel like this slump is coming to an end. On a related Paul Lo Duca note, somehow the Mets fans have been lazy, and the Dodger fans have been pushing for their catcher, who I’m not going to deem with a name. You can vote 25 times per email address, so get out there and continue to vote for Paul, who’s fallen out of the lead in the All Star voting.

They asked him if he thought he should be batting second, and about how Reyes needs protection and all that. He basically said it doesn’t really matter, it’s not the order that’s the problem, it’s that they need to start getting hits at the right times. Which is true, were they driving in these guys with two outs and when they’ve got guys on, no one would be debating the line-up that much.

He also addressed Cole Hamels a little bit, who basically was upset over how Lo Duca acted after his home run the other day. This was the third of three consecutive home runs off him, to put the Mets up 3-2. He said he “could give a rats-you know what” about Hamels or his statements. That if he upset him, he’s sorry, but he could care less. It was a big home run while they were struggling, and he got excited. That it’s different than when he got upset at A-Rod for watching his home run when the Yankees were up by a lot and it was mostly meaningless. He knows that he’ll see Hamels again, and if he gets thrown at, he’ll happily take first base.

I’ve been saying it all week, but obviously the Mets are going to get out of this. I think the Yankees will probably falter a bit again by this weekend. I think we can play them tough and do well, especially considering their bullpen sucks and we’re facing Clemens and Clippard. So all you pessimistic ‘woe is me’ Mets fans out there, chill out. Sure this isn’t last year, but don’t forget that we lost last year. This is also not 2003. This is 2007, look forward, not back. Look up, not down.