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The Best Offense In The NL East

The Mostly Mets Podcast discussed offense in the National League East in episode 33.   The Mets scored the most runs in the division last year, and Toby, Patrick and Ted agreed that they’d probably lead again this year, although the Marlins have gotten real close.

 

Speaking in terms of runs scored the Mets scored 718, the Phillies 713, NL Average was 668, Braves had 641, Florida 625, and the Nationals 624.   The Phillies offense is heavily influenced by the park they play in, and without Ryan Howard indefinitely plus another year of age for Rollins and Utley it doesn’t seem like the Phillies will score as many in 2012.  Can the addition (And subtraction) of Jose Reyes account for 92 runs of difference between the two teams?   The Marlins offense is heavily lopsided with Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton making up most of it.

 

The Mets drop off from Beltran to Duda shouldn’t be too great, and Andres Torres can probably give the Mets what Angel Pagan gave them last year.  Replacing Jose Reyes’ production is a little tougher.  Luckily most of his at bats will be made up with more at bats from Ike Davis and a little more Ruben Tejada.  David Wright will get more at bats as well, and all of them with a healthy back.  This will all keep the offense churning, even if Jason Bay exhibits no signs of life.

 

If I had to pinpoint one player to worry about, it’d be Tejada.  He’s still young though, so there’s still plenty of hope he’ll improve.  Last year’s OBP was partially BABIP/AVG fueled, but he did improve on his strikeout and walk rate.  Keep improving there and even if he gets lucky he’ll still maintain a very helpful rate at getting on base.

 

One other factor to consider that makes the Mets clear-cut favorites: power.  The Mets got on base more than anyone else in the National League except the Cardinals, but they had league average slugging.  This translates to a lot of runners stranded that otherwise would’ve been runs.  In 2012 the Mets will have more power.  Duda is already impressing people with his power this spring, and Davis will join him to tattoo the Pepsi Porch all year long. Add a healthier Wright and even a 20% bounce back from Jason Bay towards his career norms and the Mets will be a very dangerous threat.  This is all without even mentioning the walls.  The Marlins addition of Jose Reyes will likely raise their on base percentage, but not enough to make up the difference.

 

I’m confident the Mets will have the best offense in the National League East this season.  It’s one step towards a successful season, and it’s also a step that isn’t going anywhere.  The Mets offense is controlled through 2013 at least, with prospects prepared to fill in at some of the weaker positions soon.  The Mets offense is great and will stay that way.

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Pondering The Delay in the 2013 All-Star Game Announcement

This post is dedicated to the memory of Gary Carter, a true Mets All-Star.

Wright touches home after homering in the 2006 All-Star GameMets Police has been pondering why there has been no official announcement of where the 2013 MLB All-Star Game will be played.  Unofficially it’s going to be at Citi Field, but that news is been pending for a long time now, and it’s past the time we usually have these things announced.

 

I had speculated that it was related to first Bud Selig’s pending renewal of his term as commissioner, and then not wanting to announce things during the Giants Super Bowl run.  Now it’s almost Spring Training and we’ve heard nothing.

 

But something else is happening in 2013: interleague play and realignment.   This will probably add more interleague games, and all year long.  Perhaps Major League Baseball is considering changing the All-Star Game from an AL versus NL to something akin to the NHL with captains picking teams.  Or perhaps they’ll go with something they did for the Home Run Derby a couple of years ago; teams based on country of origin.  Coincidentally 2013 will also be the third edition of the World Baseball Classic, so the game will already be in an international mode.

 

I have no idea why something like that would need to delay the announcement though.  Maybe they just want to have more details about it when they do eventually let us know.

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2012 New York Met as 2011 New York Giant

Every year there are tons of examples of teams that were deemed to have no chance to be competitive that make surprising runs deep into the playoff rounds and sometimes win it all.  The New York Football Giants were given very little chance to make the playoffs, and even less once they started piling up injuries in the preseason.  Tom Coughlin’s job was in jeopardy nearly every week, and Eli Manning was laughed at for calling himself elite.  The Giants were soundly criticized for mismanaging the cap and for doing nothing in the offseason.

 

Now there are only four teams left.  One of them is the Giants, and no one’s doubting they have a serious shot at winning their game in San Francisco and going to, and perhaps winning, the Super Bowl.

 

Eli Manning won Super Bowl MVP in 2008 in Super Bowl XLII.  That vindicated him some from the critics early in his career, but his failure to win a playoff since had brought back the doubts about his talent.  Last year he had a lot of interceptions, and it really downgraded his status with a lot of people.   In a way, it reminds me of David Wright.

 

I have hope that the 2012 David Wright will be a similar story to 2011’s Eli Manning.  David’s strikeouts nicely represent Eli’s interceptions.  Although he doesn’t have a title, Wright was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2007.  In 2012 I expect to see Wright return to that form.  After Eli outplayed Aaron Rodgers on Sunday there were people that were even comparing him to his brother Peyton, who may be the best ever.   When the 2012 MLB season ends, no longer will we have to debate if he’s the best third baseman in the NL East.  Instead critics will struggle to find a third baseman in all of baseball as good as he is.

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Only Two Games: Enjoy Them

There are only two Mets games left on the season.  Tune in and watch or listen to them.   There are only two and we’ll be missing the Mets before you know it.  The DVR’d episode of How I Met Your Mother will wait.

 

Watch Jose Reyes compete for a batting title.  See some of the young guys make a case for inclusion on the 2012 team.  Nick Evans looks like he’s got a better than fair shot at making the team next year.  Jason Pridie is finish strong, perhaps making a case as the 4th outfielder.

 

It’s not a given that Reyes returns.  This could  be his last two games.  Last night could’ve been the last time David Wright will have driven in Jose Reyes.  If you make it out to Citi Field, make sure to give him a big hand.

 

It’s a long way to April 5th.  There will be a lot of unpleasant stories.  A lot of “The Mets can’t do that” and “The Mets can’t afford that” type stories.  They’re starting already, but at least we have two games left to enjoy before all the rumor and speculation.

 

Let’s Go Mets!

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Wall Adjustments Do Not Make Mets Better

I’ve never really cared about the walls at Citi Field.  They are what they are for both teams, and the height and distance have both positives and negatives. My biggest concern is that if they were to change them, that they would do something stupid like just draw another orange line, or construct a makeshift fence in front of it and mess with the aesthetics.  Sandy Alderson’s comments on the broadcast last night seem to suggest that they’ll put a lot of thought into how to meld the chances into the structure if they do make changes.  Alderson mentioned that they’ve done a lot of research on it, and with three years worth of data to look at they’re a little more confident in the decisions they’re reaching off the data.  Opinions about home runs and wall height are one thing, but I’m happy any decision that’s made will be based off hard data. 

Personally, I like the changes Randy over at The Apple suggested.  A row of seating in front of the wall in left, and a fence in right that turns the Mo’s Zone from a forgotten group area to a cool place to watch the game.  Being able to watch the game from what would literally be field level would be a lot of fun.  San Francisco has a similar type area out in right field of their ballpark. 

Still, the changes do not make the Mets better.  If the Mets move the fences in, they’ll move the fences in for the opponent as well.  Jason Bay will still need to hit the ball hard consistently, and his failure to do so for much of his Mets tenure is not because of the walls.  The Mets still have some work to do to make the 2012 team a contending team, and all moving in the walls does is change the configuration of the boxscore.  David Wright and the Mets still need to hit the ball over them more often than their opponents to win a lot of games.

A side effect of this is that we can no longer call it the Great Wall of Flushing if it’s changed, and I was starting to really like that nickname.  I thought it was a fun inside joke.

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More Nice Things About David Wright

A lot of this season my focus has been on just how awesome Jose Reyes is, but let’s not forget our Captain third baseman. David Wright is also a great player, and I feel it’s going a little unnoticed by those in the fan base that scream for change for change’s sake without stopping to appreciate what we have.

David Wright owns, or is in the process of owning, so many of the Mets offensive records.  He’s 8th in games played, 1st in doubles, 4th in home runs, 2nd (by 12) in RBIs, 6th in stolen bases, 4th in walks, first in total bases, 2nd in runs and third in hits, although he may never get to first in those last two as he’s chasing teammate Jose Reyes.  He trails only Darryl Strawberry and Mike Piazza in slugging percentage.

His 2007 season was one of the best offensive seasons in Mets history, and he did everything one player could do to try to will the Mets to the playoffs.  He did the same in September of 2008.

Year G PA R H 2B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP Awards
2007 160 711 113 196 42 30 107 34 5 94 115 .325 .416 .546 .963 149 330 14 AS,MVP-4,GG,SS
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/19/2011.

He absolutely owns left-handed pitching. (To compare, Albert Pujols has a only marginally higher 1.085 OPS against lefties and that might just be the difference in slugging from playing in a slightly smaller park)

I Split G PA AB H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
  vs LHP as RHB 505 1165 984 336 84 51 176 159 157 .341 .433 .592 1.025 583
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/19/2011.

He played through pain with a broken back for a month earlier this season and still managed a game winning home run here and there.  To that note, David Wright owns the Mets record for game-winning RBI.

Since returning from the disabled list he’s hitting .289/.364/.479 with 8 HR and 39 RBI in 54 games.  That projects to 24 HR and 118 RBI over a full season and is just a handful of walks and maybe a home run or two off his career average. He’s got 42 strikeouts, which would be 123 over a full season, or much closer to the 115 he averaged over his first four full seasons.  All that’s factoring in that he just had a rough 10 days or so both offensively and defensively.

Defensively he’s been a very up and down player.  He went a month after returning from the DL where he looked amazing, making great catches, and great throws.  Other times he goes through phases where he let’s balls get by him, and misses first base on his throws.  I’m not going to break out any fancy statistics here, because defensive statistics are spotty in the absolute best case scenarios, and Wright hasn’t collected enough data to form any coherent opinion.  There’s just too much noise in the data, but I’ve seen him play serious Gold Glove caliber defense, and I know he can do it again.

David Wright is a historic Met and in the prime of his career.  He’s part of the 2012 solution and is a pleasure to watch every day.  His value to the Mets franchise is just another reason another team is not going to blow Sandy Alderson away with an offer for him.  The Mets need more franchise defining great players, and trading away one of them is not the way to do that.

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Welcome Back David, We Missed You!

Today the Mets get back their unofficial captain and star third-baseman.  After all, how can the Mets take on the Goliath challenge of making the playoffs without their David?

 

The Mets playoff chances appear to be hanging by a thread, despite still technically controlling their own destiny as far as the Braves are concerned.  While they are playing just well enough to not fall out of it, they’re not gaining any ground either.  Another week without gaining ground possibly spells the end of Carlos Beltran as a Met, but looking to sell at the deadline or not, the Mets will get reinforcements.  David Wright returns tonight, and it looks like the road is marked for the return of Johan Santana.  I wouldn’t rule out Sandy Alderson making a trade that can help the Mets, both this year and in the future, at the trade deadlines.  Perhaps it’s unlikely, but you never know what’s going to be out there.

 

We’ll start with David Wright.  He’s tearing up Florida in the minors, and here’s hoping he’ll continue to tear up Florida in the majors this weekend.  It’ll be nice to have him back. Everyone time someone mentions the Mets third baseman I instinctively think David Wright, and Daniel Murphy’s name starting with the same letter doesn’t help.

 

So welcome back David Wright, and here’s to a great end of the season for you.

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Biggest Week of Mets Baseball in Years

This next week or two may be the biggest games the Mets have played since the last week of 2008, and they also might be the biggest games they’ll play for years.  The Mets record, as well as the Phillies and Braves, will greatly determine the look of the team going forward this year, and maybe even next year too.

Sandy Alderson has said he would consider trading Carlos Beltran right now a white flag, but if the Mets play poorly over the next two weeks, that white flag is inevitable anyway.   It’s probably not just Carlos Beltran either; The Mets won’t get a ton for guys like Chris Capuano or Jason Isringhausen, but if the chances of contention plummet there will be little reason to keep them.   If they manage to climb closer in the race, the small return from trading those guys won’t be worth gutting the team.  In a way, the Mets could finish a handful of games above or below .500 based on how they do in these next bunch of games.

Either way this season will likely be viewed as a step in the right direction, but if the Mets fall out of it here and restructure the team with next year in mind, the record and excitement levels will fall.   That probably won’t be enough to prompt many to invest in this team, raising projected income and in turn, payroll.  As the memory of the last Mets game fades, we’ll be subjected to more financial news regarding the Picard lawsuit and the Madoff mess.  Their will be speculations about Einhorn’s control, about how much the payroll can possibly go up, and if the Mets will actually field a competitive team.   So the only real news will be mostly doom and gloom again, which won’t help sell tickets.  Just today someone called into WFAN in the brief 20 minutes I had it on proclaiming there is no way the Mets compete for five or six years.

If the Mets climb back into the race and get closer, Sandy Alderson will be more likely to keep players like Beltran, and may even look to add a reliever or someone, especially if the player can be helpful beyond this year too.   Whether or not they can or will win a playoff race is not the point here, the point is that if they stay close and prove that they can play with anyone it suggests that the Mets may not be years from competing.   They could go into the offseason with fans thinking they’re getting close and with the right moves, including resigning Jose Reyes, the Mets could be a very good team next year.  

There’s going to be a lot of stuff to watch with this team this year, and if they remain competitive and winning games they’ll bring in fans to watch versus fans switching gears to what could be a returning NFL season or something else.  Jose Reyes could have a record breaking season, as despite spotting the opposition 11 or more games, he’s still got a commanding lead in base hits.  David Wright will be returning, one of the Mets franchising players who they’ve sorely missed.  Johan Santana may return, and while that’s still up in the air, as is his effectiveness, it will be nice to see him on the mound again.  I would like to be at his first game back if I can at least.

It all starts tonight against the Phillies with your hero in attendence.   The Phillies aren’t taking the Mets seriously, opting to give  Halladay and Lee some extra rest coming off the break and pushing them back until after the weekend.  Facing Vance Worley, Cole Hamels who the Mets routinely beat, and Kyle Kendrick is not a daunting task.  Hopefully the Mets can get a hot start to the second half, while exposing the Phillies pitching depth, and start catching both them and the Braves who are playing the Nationals this weekend.

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Where Are The Mets Going?

It’s Memorial Day, a day many baseball fans traditionally use to take their first real assessment of the team.  Now suddenly standings start really meaning something, it’s considered okay to scoreboard watch, and most batting averages and rate statistics have at least a reasonable sample in which to infer some judgement on the player beyond a hot or cold start.  (Jose Reyes is batting .335, is the best shortstop in the game and is just plain exciting to watch. Please extend his contract.)

So where are these Mets going?  Right now it certainly doesn’t feel like they’re going very far.  They faced the Phillies and the lesser two of their aces and their rotation filler and outpitched all three of them but lost the series.  The fielding got sloppy in close games and the bullpen picked the worst possible time to struggle.  Still, can you proclaim anything as over in May?  The Phillies were 1-3 against the Mets, one game over .500 and 7 games back on Memorial Day in 2007.  Sure, the Phillies look better than the Mets right now, but you would’ve said the opposite in 2007.  

There is no doubt that the Mets need to play better to have any hope at some sort of reverse 2007 season.  The latest news on Ike Davis and David Wright doesn’t exactly have them returning immediately, but it won’t be too much longer either.  The news on Johan Santana remains good.   If the Mets can find ways to win games without them, and that would include hitting better with RISP and fielding the ball cleanly to not force pitchers to have to get 4 or 5 outs too many times, then they can crawl back to .500 and be poised to add two big bats to help them chase the Phillies.  They still have nine games against them and won’t face them again for over a month.  The Mets play eight of the next 14 games against the Pirates.  It is not unreasonable to expect the Mets to slaughter them, and be able to be above .500 after those 14 games.  Minimize the losing stretches of baseball and maximize the winning ones.  I think two weeks of this losing is enough, it’s time to start another strong run. 

This was a rough weekend for the Mets, but it’s one they can look at and realize that maybe if they field the ball cleanly they win two or three of those games.  No excuses; fix the problems or find players that will. 

One thing that’s starting to concern me is  Terry Collins’ bullpen usage.  (#1 thing fans nipick about a manager right?)  I really like the Mets bullpen, but i do not like their situational guys, and I wish Collins would stop going to them like they’re gold.  These pitchers are not Pedro Feliciano and I would leave Capuano or even Pelfrey in those games.  A lot hinges on Buccholz and Beato.  Both showed a lot of promise and if they can be relied on in those fringe innings between Isringhausen and K-Rod and the starting pitching then Mets will have a lot of chances to win baseball games.