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2012 NL East: A Race Down to the Wire

The Phillies and Braves got worse, and the Mets, Nationals and Marlins got better.  This season the NL East could finish with the first place team being less than 15 games ahead of the last place team.  Last year the Marlins finished 30 games behind the Phillies.

 

The top of the division shapes up to win a few less games, and the bottom of the division will win a few more.  This will bridge the gap between them and bunch everyone up in the middle.   Injuries and other things can affect this of course, but the Mets and the Marlins figure to be falling in the middle somewhere.    Maybe there’s some doubt that some of the bottom teams can win the division or that the Phillies will finish last, but it’s definitely going to be a tighter race this season.

 

These teams play each other in half the season’s games.  The head to head matchups are going to play a huge role in determining who wins the division this year.  The margin of error this year may be that much less that a good record against teams within the division make up the different between winning and falling short.  Even just an 11-7 record against the Phillies would make up four games in the standings.  If I’m right about the division being bunched up, it’s really going to intensify the rivalries between some of these teams.  That can only be a good thing that leads to teams setting up their rotations so we get more pitching duel matchups.  All five teams will go into September with a lot of games to play against each, meaning most of the NL East teams may still control their own destiny in terms of making the playoffs.

 

It’s going to be a fun season.

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Trying to Finish on a High Note

The Mets are looking to finish the unofficial first half with a positive note, despite losing Jose Reyes this week for six or more additional games.  They have three All-Star pitchers to face to get there, although the name Vogelsong doesn’t exactly fill you with fear.

 

With the Braves and Phillies rarely losing lately, the Mets have had trouble making up ground even when playing well.  Which is why it’s important that they win some of these games against All-Star pitchers before they lose anymore ground.  They still have plenty of time and plenty of games against their opponents, but you can’t let them get too far ahead either.

 

The Mets will have a chance to finish anywhere from one game under .500 to five games over.  Merely winning the series would put them a comfortable three over, whereas losing it would drop them to just one.   The Braves and the Phillies play each other this weekend, so one of those teams will have to lose at least two games.  The Mets winning ensures they can at least gain ground on one of them.   They then have a chance after the break to gain even more ground on Philadelphia directly.

 

If the Mets can win some of these games, including some of the ones after the break, they’ll start getting healthier with Jose Reyes, David Wright and maybe even Ike Davis returning to this offense.  Adding those guys would suggest that the Mets would be better than they have been so far.  There’s no saying that that will be enough to propel them above and beyond their competition, but it should be fun to watch.  Hopefully the Mets can give those guys an opportunity to still be in the race when they return.

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Tip Your Hat, Get ‘Em In July

The Yankees won this round.  Some lucky breaks, grounders that found holes and inopportune walks combined with a rather disappointing offensive performance all around gave the Yankees the series win.  If I had to choose one culprit, it would be the offense.  Still stunted from losing David, Davis and Pagan and from the continued struggles of Bay and Thole , they had opportunities that they just couldn’t capitalize on.  So I’ll tip my hat to the Yankees here; for now they’re the better team as shown in head to head competition.  As a reward I’ll refrain from making Yankees jokes for a week, which is roughly how long it takes A-Rod to get down the line these days.  Oops, a week starting now.

 

The Mets lost their first series in a while, which was bound to happen.  It sucks that it was the Yankees, but they’re likely a better team, were at home, and have the DH advantage as all AL teams do in these interleague games.    The team is still playing pretty good baseball overall, 3-3 since Wright went on the DL, and is keeping themselves in games and in the playoff race.  Ike Davis and Angel Pagan may return somewhat soon, and hopefully David Wright just behind them.   Until then it’s up to these guys to keep battling, to keep playing good baseball and winning games where they can.

Upcoming is a couple of weeks of weak other-division opponents during the week, and tough divisional opponents on the weekends.  The Mets luck out and should miss Roy Halladay next weekend, which is definitely a boon.  The Mets need to avoid spiraling into a funk and continue to win more ballgames than they lose.  This keeps them in a position to make a run at things as they get healthier, and also helps Sandy Alderson figure out which of his role players and bench guys he needs to keep on this team, and which can be sent away. Z24DR8WQXYQQ