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Jose Reyes: An Easy Decision

This was originally a comment to a Mets Police post about ripping the Trade Reyes bandaid off, but I decided it deserved a post of it’s own. 

It’s really a simple decision.  Franchise players like Jose Reyes are very valuable, and it’d be especially silly to let him get away for anything but an absolute steal of a package, and even then I’d be reluctant.   This isn’t fantasy baseball; I, and other fans, develop emotional attachment to players and there is value and revenue in that.

Sign Reyes, and you keep a franchise player that the fanbase loves and will define and promote your franchise for, and this isn’t an exaggeration, 60+ years.  Keep one of the best players in the game at a premium position of which there is nothing close available on the market or in the minors. Finish the season at or above .500, regardless of if they can make a playoff push or not.   Have people believing 2012 will be better, that we’re already into year two of the ‘rebuilding’ process and things are good and people are buying season tickets.  The Mets (not the Wilpons) problem is not so much debt is it trying to get the revenue stream back above the level of what a competitive payroll is.  To do this they have to keep people interested in the Mets and coming to the park.  Who’s more interesting than Jose Reyes right now?

Or you can trade him or let him walk away, and finish below .500.  Show people that this is year one of the demolition process before rebuilding starts. Watch no one pay any attention to the Mets all offseason, and no one buy season tickets, or renew season tickets.  2.5million fans this year becomes 1.5million fans next year, and in 2013, and in 2014.. prices come down because no one’s going, revenue drops as a result, less demand on advertising space drops revenue there as well.  SNY becomes the Food Network; sure you’ll flip it on once in a while and see what’s cookin’, but it’s not worth DVRing.  In an age when it’s so very very easy to watch any team in the league, and with the Mets unwatchable, many fans start half-following the Giants or wherever Reyes ends up playing.  If MLB.TV existed when the Mets traded Seaver, how many Mets fans do you think would’ve purchased it to watch him pitch?  In 2013 the Mets sell out the Giants series at Citi with the stands awash of really faded Black Mets 7 shirts. The next series against the Phillies is empty, no one wants to see two bad teams play.  Citi Field feels empty without #7.

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Move Along, Nothing to See Here

I was going to rant and rave and vent and fume, but it looks like Jason Fry basically covered all the angles over there at Faith and Fear in Flushing so I’ll just throw in a little pointer here to there.

 

Ugh. After which we never, ever spoke of it again.

 

So let’s remind these American League teams that are coming to Citi Field why National League baseball is the way to go.  Let’s laugh at their pitchers trying to hit, and laugh at the managers that may botch a double-switch.  Let’s read all the Moneyball references made while the A’s are in town and watch the Mets play, and win, some baseball games at home.  It’s been a long road trip, and a successful one, so let’s go out to the park and watch Jose Reyes be Amazin’.

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Optimistic Stuff Going On

It often feels like the mainstream media has a story they want to write, and look for the facts to fit the story rather than watching the game and writing a story that matches the facts.  They can get hung up on narratives they like and beat them to death.  Part of the reason I named this blog what I did was to counter the idea that the Mets are cursed, never spend, are inept, or Latin-biased, etc etc.

 

One of the common stories this year was that the Mets are broke and can’t afford Reyes, so they will trade him.   They stuck to this; it seemed like every day there was another story about how they’d have to trade him, or who would be a good suitor.  As the season went on some of these writers had the occasion to glance down at the field, and happened to notice how unbelievably awesome Jose Reyes is, and how much he is adored by Mets fans.  Slowly but surely more articles came out suggesting, as many bloggers have been writing all along, that the Mets should and could keep Reyes.   It’s so refreshing to watch a player that’s just that awesome, that leads the league in so many categories, and is having a blast doing it.   That his great season has caused writers to use the delete button more than usual is just a bonus.

 

Speaking of which, here’s a post from Ed Ryan at Mets Fever that wonders if maybe the Mets should be thinking about adding, not subtracting, players at the trading deadline.  Personally I think the Mets will add someone.  Alderson has been known in the past to like to wheel and deal, and I suspect this year will be no different.  He’s claimed to this point to have the financial ability to do so.  This doesn’t mean no one will get traded though, it just means it doesn’t have to be a fire sale.   Sandy Alderson won’t need to trade major league pieces for guys that may or may not help the team at some future time.  He’s got the options of trading major league talent for equal major league talent, maybe shuffling off an extra bat for an extra relief pitcher, or trading prospects for a good player that’s still got a couple of years left on his contract to help the team out both this year and next.

 

Winning or losing, it’s never too early to start bringing in talented players.  Even if you don’t believe the Mets are one or two players away from making the playoffs, if you make them one better right now, that’s less work needed to do in the offseason.  I expect a lot of activity in July, and some of it will probably be pretty exciting.

 

 

 

 

 

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Jose Reyes and the Triple Crown

Photo by Michael Baron

A player like Jose Reyes will never win a Triple Crown, he’s not a slugger and right now doesn’t bat in a part of the lineup with a lot of RBI opportunities.  We count the success of players like Reyes with runs scored and stolen bases over home runs and RBIs.

So how does Jose Reyes stack up in the Leadoff Hitters Triple Crown as of 6:00pm on Sunday when I’m writing this?  He leads the National League in average at .346.  He’s currently 2nd in runs, one off the lead held by Drew Stubbs and Ryan Braun at 48.  He’s second in stolen bases, six behind Michael Bourn of the Astros who has 26.

The season is a little over a third over, so there is still a lot of time left.  Still, Reyes certainly looks like a solid candidate for my newly created Leadoff Triple Crown.  He’s leading in hitting right now, although Joey Votto is only .007 behind him and having an unbelievable season as well.  He’s currently got a .466 OBP.  He’s on base more than 9 times out of 20.

Reyes is only one run scored off the lead, which is doubly impressive when you consider Stubbs has Votto behind him driving him in and Braun has Prince Fielder.  Reyes has had to deal with injuries to Ike Davis and David Wright, and has often had Jason Bay, who’s not hitting at all, batting cleanup.

Michael Bourn is leading Jose in stolen bases.  Bourn has been the leader in each of the last two seasons while Jose was dealing with the injury in 2009 and the lack of a Spring Training in 2010.  So far this season he’s playing decently above his career average, and perhaps will tail off in stolen bases opportunities and allow Jose to pass him.  Or maybe Jose starts stealing more.

Yes, Jose Reyes is having a monster year. He’s easily one of the most exciting players in baseball and the best shortstop in the league.  Ultimately the Mets are going to have to work out an extension with him and resign him, but in the mean time we’re getting to enjoy one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from a Mets position player.  Getting to the tv for first pitch when the Mets are on the road is a necessity, because if you’re late you may miss Reyes doing something amazin’.

The 7 train sometimes makes local stops, but Jose Reyes is always express.

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The Mets: Good Lately

The Mets got off to a poor start in 2011: The bullpen looked pretty bad and the starting pitching was struggling.  The weather was cold and rainy and they couldn’t buy a clutch hit.  Over the last month the Mets have made some roster tweaks and been faced with some injuries, but they’ve also played pretty well.

They are 9-6 in May.  They are 16-11 since the seven game losing streak that was over a month ago.   If they were to continue at that 16-11 pace they’d actually end up winning 91 games.  It’s not a torrid pace in any way, but they win more than they lose.  They keep themselves in games, and by extension, in playoff races. 

It is probably unrealistic to expect the Mets to continue this pace without David Wright and Ike Davis, but there are a lot of other things not going the Mets way either.  Will Jason Bay ever start hitting?  Will Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy, or a year older Ruben Tejada provide adequate production for a stretch while the other Mets are on the mend?  Will Dickey pitch better, get a better grip on the knuckleball as the weather warms up, and at least keep the Mets in the games?  Did Mike Pelfrey get his “one bad month” out of the way in April this year? 

There are also many unknowns.  I don’t buy into speculation about what the Mets are going to do, rosterwise, with this team.  Personally I’d be more shocked of Reyes was traded than if he wasn’t.  Alderson has to recognize how good Reyes is, how hard it is to find a good shortstop, and how much the fans love him.   Alderson has also claimed that he’ll be able to do what needs to be done around the trading deadline to add players, and the potential for the Mets to get better there exists.  Then there is Johan Santana recovering from his capsule tear.  It’s unrealistic to rely on him coming back, but that doesn’t mean we can’t hope and wonder.  He’s on track for recovery now to return in July or August.  Whatever the chances are that he doesn’t experience any setbacks, the possibility that you could add a pitcher of his talent and intelligence to a rotation in September is enough to make me smile. 

The Mets look and feel like a team. They’re probably not the best team or most talented team in the league, but lately they’ve been winning games, playing good defense, getting some hits when they need them and capitalizing on mistakes made by the other clubs.  No team looks all-powerful in the league and if the Mets can continue playing good baseball, get guys healthy, and make some good roster moves there is no reason why they can’t remain competitive all season. 

Maybe they’ll even hit a grand slam.

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League Leaders: Jose Reyes Watch

He’s second in hits in the league with 50. On pace for over 200.

Second in total bases behind Lance Berkman.

He leads the league in doubles. (Tied with Carlos Beltran at 12)

Has the most triples in the league with 6. (4th among active players)

Is 9th in batting average.

One off the league league for stolen bases.

Leads the league in extra base hits. 

He’s got an .855 OPS.

He’s only made two errors and is playing a great shortstop. (4th in Fielding Percentage)

Is only 27.  What team in their right mind would let someone like that get away?

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Breeding Confidence

Terry Collins called last night’s win “No doubt the biggest win they’ve had this year.” It’d be hard to disagree, and they extend their winning streak to six games after they got shut down early by Gorzelanny.  He talked about turning the anger the team has about the last couple of years on the opponent and using it to their advantage.  One things for sure; this team is an extremely likable team that plays with energy and is fun to watch.

 

Winning games when you struggle to hit early and have to overcome bad calls and comeback in the 8th and the 9th can be huge morale boosters.   I know all teams have huge comeback wins and look great and energetic doing it.  All teams look better when they’re winning.  For _this_ team, the comeback and practicing winning, as uncrowned captain David Wright would put it, may be a bigger deal.  We watched the Met struggle early this season, and press and try too hard and make mistakes.  Terry Collins tried to keep them upbeat, but nothing does that better than winning.  Games like this reinforce the attitude on the team that they are winners, and that no obstacle is too large to overcome.  It’ a complete 180 from where they were earlier in the season.  The baseball season is a long one, and there is a huge mental preparation aspect to it.  When teams believe they can pull out a win, when they don’t doubt themselves, it can be a huge weapon to get through a season.  The other side: When a pitcher is out there, maybe a closer that hasn’t handled the role well, (Why, hello there Ryan Madson) knowing that the other team is sure they’re going to beat you, it can eat at you.  The Phillies of recent years may be an example of this. You heard from everyone, including opposing players, that the Phillies are never out of a game.    It creates a mental edge.  It may not be a large one, or one that’s measurable, but it does exist.

 

I don’t know if a “winning attitude” or some sort of mental edge is enough.  I don’t know if the Mets are talented enough, or will stay healthy enough, to win a division.  I believe they can, but me believing it, or even the players believing it, doesn’t mean it will happen.  For now, it doesn’t matter.  They’re a fun bunch that believe they can win any game, and I’m going to have fun watching until the end believing they can pull it out.  I’m not worrying about how many wins they have to have if they’re going to compete, or what their record needs to be against this opponent or that. Play the game, try to win the game, and I’ll sit on my couch and root for you.  It’ll be a nice change from having to root against teams the last couple of years.