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More Pressure For a Quick Start

ike davisIt’s not just Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya that have to worry about fast starts to the season or their jobs being in jeopardy.  The same case could be made for Jeff Francoeur,perez Daniel Murphy, and Rod Barajas.  The way Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, and Josh Thole have been playing in a way this spring that makes you suspect they’ll be knocking at the door to Citi Field sooner rather than later.

With Reyes possibly being out some, or all, of April the pressure on the starting pitching has just doubled.  The most recent report on April suggests that he may be back closer to mid April, but that’s still a rough estimate.

We’ve known for a while that the season was going to hinge on the starting pitching.  The offense was projected to be one of the top in the league, and surely would’ve won some games on it’s own even when the pitching struggled.  With Reyes and Beltran out, they may not have that cushion for a while, but this doesn’t mean the Mets are doomed to a 9-13 type record to start the season.

The fast start is more important than ever, and if Maine, Perez, and Pelfrey can have a good month of April the Mets will still win games.  We all know they’re each capable of pitching good games.  It was expected before the season that they could definitely pitch competitively and keep us in games, but now they may be pressured to actually win the games.  Instead of quality start performances and limiting the opponents to three runs over six innings, stepping up and going seven innings and occasionally limiting the other teams to merely one or two runs becomes important to the Mets early success.

This isn’t to say the Mets lineup is useless, and that they won’t occasionally put up a crooked number, but Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are two of the most irreplaceable players in the game today.  The season is never won and lost in April, but if the pitching can step up and win more games than they lose, not only will it minimize the damage caused by losing Reyes and Beltran, it will set them up nicely once they return.

This post, and vibrant discussion about it, also featured on The Real Dirty Mets Blog.

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First Last Game at Citi Field

I bought tickets, way back in May, for the final game of the season. I didn’t think it would matter; I figured the Mets would’ve clinched, but it had mattered for two years and I figured it wouldn’t be a bad game to be at.

From Citifield

It seems I was wrong. There is nothing to watch, and Pelfrey isn’t even making his final start of the season. This means Figueroa on the mound and who knows who playing around him. So why am I going?

A couple of reasons. It’s still baseball, it’s still the Mets, and I already have tickets. I haven’t been to Citi Field in a while due to a combination of life keeping me from being able to afford tickets (not the prices) and the Mets not being good enough to make it worth going.

I love Citi Field. It’s my favorite baseball stadium and I’m looking forward more to being in the stadium once more than the play on the field. I’ve always been a strong proponent of the new place, but the feeling I get now is similar the the ones I got at Shea Stadium late in the season. A “It feels right being here, and I’ll miss it for the next couple of months” feeling. I’ll enjoy being able to wander around, and not having to sit in my seat and stare at what’s become bad baseball lately for nine innings.

If I watched at home, I’d mentally tune out and not pay attention because it doesn’t mean much. I’d probably turn on football. At Citi I’ll mentally say goodbye to baseball, bury the 2009 season, and watch Manuel mismanage his final game with the Mets.

I’ll come home, root for the Islanders, the Giants, the Tigers and whoever is playing the Phillies. I’ll try to erase the 2009 Mets from my mind, and start waiting for April 5th, 2010. It’s only 184 days away.

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Francoeur and Valentine

With Bobby Valentine talking to ESPN, it suggests that the Mets aren’t talking to him. Which could mean the Mets are planning on repeating the Manuel mistake in 2010. Which would be a shame, because replacing Manuel would be the easiest and cheapest problem to fix on the Mets.

From Pictures

Couple this with rumors that the Mets are talking about signing Francoeur to a three year contract, and it becomes obvious that the Mets just don’t get it. Francoeur, while not the problem, is not the solution either. He’s not a very good player, despite his small sample size with the Mets this year. While I’d rather the Mets look at signing another pitcher, a left fielder, and two catchers and keep Francoeur in RF for the time being, they can do that without committing to him beyond next year. Even worse is what this represents.

If Francoeur is a given in right, and obviously we’ve got Beltran in center, what’s going on in left field? Either the Mets have no faith in Fernando Martinez playing for the Mets any time soon, or they have no serious plans to go after a power hitting acquisition to play there, unless we’re talking a one year deal, which would be harder to pull off. While I don’t think straight out bombers are what the Mets need, although if Manuel is staying it’s more important because it fits his style better, the Mets do need to add another bat. The free agent options are better for an outfielder than a first baseman, and Murphy plus an outfielder is a better team than trading for a 1B and whatever leftover piece you’d have for left.

The Mets are more than capable of competing in 2010, but they do have a lot of work to do in the off-season as well. So far the rumors I’ve heard regarding what they plan are not reassuring.

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Hard to be Optimistic about the Mets

It’s hard to be optimistic with the state of the Mets right now. It’s hard to be confident in Omar, it’s hard to be confident in Manuel and the coaches, and even the promising young guys no longer seem promising.

comebackreyes

How did we go from being disappointed that Murphy got an extra plate appearance last season and wouldn’t be eligible for Rookie of the Year, to a guy that we’re talking about trading while he still has some value. Personally, I don’t agree with that sentiment, but Murphy’s stock has definitely gone down since last year.

Mike Pelfrey was quickly becoming an excellent pitcher, and while there were some concerns most were okay with him being ‘named’ the number two starter before the season. Now he’s struggling to make that next step and gain consistency.

To me both these guys have talent, drive, and are smart enough to learn how to get better. So why aren’t they getting better? While the ultimate onus falls on the player, this is why there is a manager and coaches in the first place. Most people don’t really understand what a coach does, but if they didn’t have a big role they wouldn’t be fired as often as they are, and teams wouldn’t necessarily even have them.

It doesn’t have to be a career All-Star on the bench to be a good coach, merely a student of the game. He needs to be able to identify and assist players with making the adjustments they need to make, or fixing the bad habits they’re picking up. Good players can do this on their own, but even good players often have a blind spot when analyzing themselves. It’s the same in all areas of the world. This is why English teachers since grade school have been teaching us to have someone else read over and review our writing.

It appears that there is something fundamentally wrong with the Mets. This has been the case since 2007, and has yet to be identified and fixed. Too many guys are under-performing, and virtually no one is over-performing. This is what makes or breaks good teams. And this is what defines a good manager or coach. It’s not just luck when a player has a career year; it’s often due to hard work, and proper guidance. The Mets have been a better team than the Phillies for years, but the difference is somehow journeyman middle relief in Philadelphia has been able to excel and pitchers like J.A. Happ have come out of nowhere to pitch brilliantly, while Pelfrey, Murphy, Parnell, Evans and guys that have showed promise with the Mets have fizzled and failed to make good on promises of success.

Is the season over? No, it’s not. I don’t buy the Marlins as legitimate. I’m not sure the Braves will be appreciably over .500, although they do look pretty good. If you buy that, it’s between the Mets and the Phillies. The Mets are far behind, but technically it’s only a game or two. They still play each other eight times, and if the Mets were to win those games they’ll be in good position, which isn’t completely out of the question as unlikely as it seems given the current state of the team. It’s growing more and more unlikely as the Phillies pull off more and more unlikely wins and the Mets continue to struggle to find any consistency, but if the ship were to be righted and players do come back from the disabled list and perform, it’s not out of the question for the Mets to catch up.

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Hang on to Those Towels

Have You Thrown in the Towel?

dont-throw-towel

It’s not far fetched, and I don’t blame him. It’s hard not to be frustrated and disgusted with the Mets the way they’re playing. There is blame on the field, in the dugout, within management and even with in the front office, all the way up. I’m not sure I’m even willing to excuse the ushers or ticket takers from the poor play of the Mets.

But it’s not over. If only it was. We all know how much 2003 sucked, but right now I think 2009 has sucked more. There was some hope in 2003. Shea Stadium shook in 2003, if only because Mo Vaughn was trying to make it to first base. You had Alomar who had been a great player; surely after a year of getting accustomed to New York, he’d return to form. You still had Piazza.

It became evident pretty fast that these guys weren’t going to get it done. It was a season probably very similar to how the Pirates fans think, of “Well, if this guy gets hot, gets good, figures it out.. then..maybe..” By mid-April, most fans realized that there was no point in getting invested in the season.

One of the bright spots of 2003 was getting to see our star prospect, Jose Reyes. A lot of 2009 hinges on the same idea. Right now it feels like they’re being overly cautious, not even testing the injury. On one hand this could mean he’s still not healthy, on the other it could mean he’s 100% healed and almost ready to go. He’s been swinging down in Florida so I hope this is the Mets way of getting his swing in shape while still resting the injury. Hopefully he’ll be ready to go, and soon.

The biggest reason I would say not to throw in the towel has to do with not being overly critical of our existing players. Despite the injuries, the Mets are in the top of the league in batting average, on base percentage. They’re getting guys on, they’re getting chances. The problem is what they do with those chances. Part of it is that they have Fernando Tatis, and lead the league in grounding into double plays. Part of it’s lineup management. If you have a lot of guys getting on, but not getting in, the lineup needs to be shaken up. Things like batting Luis Castillo and his high OBP 8th, where he’s more likely to be stranded due to the pitcher’s spot, inflate these numbers. Part of it may be the lack of power, and not being able to get as many runs out of one hit. Part of it may be the bunting, which gives away an out and a chance to have a big inning.

Another culprit has been the fundamentals. This has been a problem for most of the year, and why Jerry Manuel is not working harder at stressing it is beyond me. Especially when many of the errors seem to be of the mental kind, suggesting that the players aren’t in the right frame of mind in the field. It’s the manager’s job to get his players ready for the game. This doesn’t excuse them from making these mistakes, but it is a fault of the manager as well. When players are pressing, even in the first inning, something needs to be done. These guys need to relax. Especially David Wright who’s carrying the weight of all our expectations on his shoulders. Daniel Murphy is another who works so hard, that maybe it’s too hard.

This leads me to another thought, which is Jose Reyes in the clubhouse. Reyes, despite being a hard worker, is a very happy go lucky guy. Love it or hate it, he’s pretty much defined the atmosphere of the Mets clubhouse for years. I think the Mets miss that. His energy is something that’s missing with this team and hopefully when he comes back that energy is something he can rev people up with, get them confident and relaxed, and win some ballgames and maybe stop some of these mental errors.

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I Do Not Prefer Rooting for Underdogs

Underdogs? This is really what you want?

underdog_cartoon

There was some talk around Mets fandom after Beltran went down that now the team is more likable, because they’re fighting underdogs. Sure the St. Louis series was fun, but since then we’ve gotten swept by the Yankees, and lost the first game to the Brewers. Is this really your idea of a good team to root for?

No, it’s not. I’ve long been discouraged by the idea that most Mets fans identify with the “lovable losers” idea. Ask Keith Hernandez what he thinks about lovable losers. No one can seriously tell me you like rooting for this team this way, given what we could have. This is not a “Let’s be competitive” year, this is a win it all year. Injuries are no excuse.

The same way some fans get on Wright or start talking about “Trading the core”, some tout the lovable losers line. The reasoning is usually the same: It’s a way to steel themselves for the disappointment they think is coming, again, at the end of the year. It’s one thing rooting for underrated players like those on the ’69 Mets that show up and suddenly lead the team to a championship, and it’s another to root for talented stars, like in ’86, that take no prisoners and play exciting baseball. Right now, this team is neither.

The Mets do need to find a way to win games the way they are currently setup. Whether that’s firing the underachieving manager for someone who will field the best people on the roster in the best order, (This means your high OBP guys, like Castillo, don’t bat 8th. Especially when in Castillo’s case he’s not a huge RBI guy. This means not having Argenis Reyes playing at all, especially at the top of a lineup where he’ll get the most AB of anyone. This means giving up on Tatis who occasionally hits the ball hard, but mostly grounds into out(s). This means playing Murphy regularly, playing Fernando Martinez regularly, playing Evans regularly. Maybe these guys are all busts, but the upside is so much better than Argenis or Tatis and has the added benefit of maybe giving Omar some focus on what position to look for a bat. If Murphy starts/continues hitting well when he’s playing, Omar can ignore first base and focus on the outfield. Or vice versa if Evans appears to be solid, or Fernando crosses the prospect->talent line.), making a big trade for a bat from outside the organization, or getting the current batch of unsuccessful players to work harder, take extra batting practice, watch more video, read more scouting reports and practice more fundamentals to get what we can from them.

And one last thing: Lovable Losers is more a Cubs thing than Sweet Caroline is a Red Sox thing. So is throwing home run balls back, which seems to have taken wind across baseball. As Keith says, “Don’t do it.”

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Start Daniel Murphy

The Murphy/Tatis platoon perplexes me. It’s not just because Murphy already looks to be a better defensive first baseman, although that does help. It seems Tatis hasn’t been solid defensively anywhere he’s played this year. He’s not a liability, but he’s not good either. Sometimes you have to look at the upside.daniel_murphy

The best case scenario for Tatis is that he’s a solid guy off the bench, and can spot start at first or in the outfield a couple of times and contribute offensively. The best case for Murphy is that he develops into a solid major leaguer and is your everyday first baseman for the future. Depending on how good that best case is, that future could easily be 15 years.

For a team that could use some more offense, shouldn’t we find out what Murphy’s got as an everyday player? He platooned most of the time last year as well. Maybe it’s time for him to be put out there for 10 games and see what he looks like everyday. Some lineup consistency couldn’t hurt.

In my fire Manuel rants I’ve suggested that Manuel sets up his players to fail. Here’s another test: Manuel says Murphy will start one of these two games against the Phillies. Tonight is the lefty Cole Hamels who is a pretty good pitcher. Thursday is the lefty Jamie Moyer who hasn’t had a good year and lefties are able to hit. I would start Murphy both games, but if Manuel’s going to choose one the obvious choice is Moyer. Tatis had a good game last night, and it wouldn’t hurt to try to ride out that success by starting him again today. Murphy would be better suited to hit Moyer than Hamels. The only downside is that Murphy is a better defender for the ground balls of Pelfrey tonight, versus Redding tomorrow. Let’s see what Manuel does, but starting Murphy against Hamels and then claiming he can’t hit lefties if he doesn’t hit one of the better ones is not fair.

Sidebar: I didn’t see a lot of Phillies fans on television. No surprise there, they’ve never traveled here as well as we’ve traveled there. The ones that do only come to cause trouble. I noticed this at the last series, and I’ve heard stuff from last night as well. The Phillies fans come in bearing 2008 flags that they like to wave around and be obnoxious with. Luckily there is always a drunk Mets fan somewhere that will run in and grab it. I saw this happen in the Pepsi Porch in May, and I saw reports of it last night as well.

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What’s Up (Mets) Doc?

Questions for the Mets medical staff
stethoscope
I find new reasons to want to Fire Manuel every day, but I’m starting to think there may be issues with the medical staff. Putz concerns me; Did the Mariners let him go because they were worried about his health? This isn’t as grievous a mistake as Mo Vaughn, but if there were/is issues with J.J. Putz’s health, this probably should’ve sent up a red flag. If anything, we probably could’ve given up less. Another weird decision to look at is way back when they decided to alter Jose Reyes’ running stride. Just a horrible decision all around, and luckily there is some leadership somewhere that corrects these mistakes.

Another place to look would be the outfield. Whether bad luck, or bad scouting, the Mets have had a ton of outfield injuries the last few years. In reverse order.

Angel Pagan
Ryan Church
Angel Pagan
Marlon Anderson
Ryan Church
Trot Nixon
Moises Alou
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Moises Alou
Angel Pagan
Moises Alou
Carlos Beltran
Carlos Gomez
Endy Chavez
Shawn Green
Moises Alou

There are a lot of repeat names. Some are excusable. This isn’t including the minor league injuries that caused the Mets to call up not their 4th or 5th OF, but their 6th or 7th. Lastings Milledge was hurt, Ben Johnson was hurt. Fernando Martinez. None made it to the major league disabled list because they were injured in the minors.

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Fire Jerry Manuel

I’ve suspected Manuel was the wrong guy for the job since the day he was hired. I kept hoping I was wrong, but he keeps proving me right.

You can’t excuse the mistakes the players make, but it’s on the manager to teach his team and form a winning combination. Jerry Manuel often does the opposite.

Manuel said earlier when this insane streak of bad plays and errors started, that he’d give the team more infield practice/fundamental drills when they got back home after this road trip. As if these 10 games or so weren’t really a big deal, whatever, we’ll worry about it later. That’s the wrong attitude to take. He’s also said that he doesn’t really care about the standings in May, and while it’s true you don’t need to scoreboard watch, you still have to try to win every game.

Manuel sets up guys to fail. One example is bringing in Pagan with almost no AB this year off the bench to pinch hit for Daniel Murphy, who was supposed to be the ‘starting leftfielder’ and actually hits left handed pitching well. Or keeping Feliciano in to face Brian Mccann because you’re scared if you bring in Stokes, he’ll have to face Garret Anderson.

Manuel manages scared, which is fine if you’re playing with a crappy team, but this is arguably one of the best teams in the game. You don’t need to sacrifice bunt with Castillo, who was hitting over .300 most of the year, in the first inning. Or in the 8th for that matter, as you don’t play to tie on the road by the book. Castillo messed up the bunt, but they got the run in anyway to tie it. What if Castillo swings the bat and manages to get a hit? Maybe you win the game right there. Also, Manuel intentionally walks guys way too much. I’m okay with it in situations. I don’t care that much about walking the 8th place hitter with Redding to get the pitcher, even if Redding was throwing well. I’m not okay doing it with Santana, one of the best in the game. Against the Marlins a couple of weeks ago, Manuel called for Santana to intentionally walk Alfredo Amezega hitting eighth, twice in the same game. Santana can get anyone out, and allowing him to start with the pitcher the next inning would just make him even more successful. Amezega had never faced Santana to that point.

Manuel gets too match-up happy. Pulling Murphy to put in Pagan (cold) because he can bat righty. He pinch hits for other regulars in this manner too, late in games. Usually Sheffield for Reed or Murphy if he starts. Trust guys to get hits against all types of pitching, as Murphy tends to do when you actually play him.

Last night Church came into the game cold. This doesn’t excuse him, but Church is a starter, he’s a guy that’s used to getting ready to play, and then playing. He’s not used to coming off the bench, which is something people say is hard to prepare for. Church didn’t look prepared. Running the bases, fielding the ball, or running the bases. Manuel isn’t utilizing Church in the way that gets the most out of him. Jeremy Reed is more used to coming off the bench, but to play outfield. He basically said after the game that “He hasn’t practiced that play.”, not as an excuse, but just as a fact. He hasn’t played 1B, and all of a sudden he’s thrust there late in the game out of nowhere, when his baseball instincts are all OF related. Watch that play again. (if you can bare it) Doesn’t he look like he’s an OF getting ready to make a long throw to the plate to catch a runner? He’s used to being about 200 feet further away. This goes back to Manuel setting up guys to fail. 1B has become an issue, one that we knew about at least a couple of days ago when Delgado went on the DL, and something Manuel should’ve been preparing for as a worst case scenario. We don’t have a guy that can play first base on this team, so the best thing to do is pick a guy that’s going to play there, and let him get the playing time so he can learn and get comfortable. Whether that’s Tatis or Murphy or Reed is a personal choice, but be consistent, and let them learn the position.

These games are important. If you’re serious about winning, it’s time to put Reyes on the field even if he’s not 100%. Maybe you tell him not to steal bases while he’s aching. He’s still better than Ramon Martinez, and we still need his bat in the lineup. Stop listening to the Dodger doctors. If I’m Reyes, I come to the park today claiming to feel fine. If I have to put ice on it to hide swelling before hand, then I do that. Obviously don’t do something that’s going to hurt it more, but we need him.

I’d also start Murphy and Church in the outfield. I feel like they need to play everyday, and they give us the best chance to win. Given how Wright and Beltran are playing, that’s more than enough ‘presence’ for whatever that is worth. It feels like Jerry Manuel has another agenda than winning, at least with certain players.