Ike Davis’ First AB Probabilities

Some odds on what will happen in Ike Davis’ first major league AB.

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4-1 bloop single.
3-1 groundout.
3-1 flyout.
10-1 reach on error.
30-1 hit by pitch.
60-1 home run.
40-1 double.
75-1 triple.
5-1 hard single.
15-1 strikeout looking.
7-2 strikeout swinging.
85-1 grand slam.
15-1 walk.
25-2 Grounds into double play.
150-1 Lines into triple play.
100-1 Ground rule double.
400-1 Homers into the Apple canister.
70-1 Homers off/into the Pepsi Porch.

 

 

What do you think?

Francoeur and Valentine

With Bobby Valentine talking to ESPN, it suggests that the Mets aren’t talking to him. Which could mean the Mets are planning on repeating the Manuel mistake in 2010. Which would be a shame, because replacing Manuel would be the easiest and cheapest problem to fix on the Mets.

From Pictures

Couple this with rumors that the Mets are talking about signing Francoeur to a three year contract, and it becomes obvious that the Mets just don’t get it. Francoeur, while not the problem, is not the solution either. He’s not a very good player, despite his small sample size with the Mets this year. While I’d rather the Mets look at signing another pitcher, a left fielder, and two catchers and keep Francoeur in RF for the time being, they can do that without committing to him beyond next year. Even worse is what this represents.

If Francoeur is a given in right, and obviously we’ve got Beltran in center, what’s going on in left field? Either the Mets have no faith in Fernando Martinez playing for the Mets any time soon, or they have no serious plans to go after a power hitting acquisition to play there, unless we’re talking a one year deal, which would be harder to pull off. While I don’t think straight out bombers are what the Mets need, although if Manuel is staying it’s more important because it fits his style better, the Mets do need to add another bat. The free agent options are better for an outfielder than a first baseman, and Murphy plus an outfielder is a better team than trading for a 1B and whatever leftover piece you’d have for left.

The Mets are more than capable of competing in 2010, but they do have a lot of work to do in the off-season as well. So far the rumors I’ve heard regarding what they plan are not reassuring.

Daniel Murphy, the Iron Man of the Mets

Of all the position players originally selected to take the field on Opening Day, only Daniel Murphy has not spent any time injured. Luis Castillo has also been mostly healthy, with the exception of the couple of days from when he fell down the stairs.

From Mets

Daniel Murphy hasn’t exactly put up super numbers in his consistency, even factoring in his platoon status early on. The more I watch though the more I want him to be a part of the Mets next year. Personally I’d rather spend money on left field and get a power bat that way, and hope Murphy can hold down first base. He looks like can he do it defensively, and he’s shown some skill offensively at times. I know his batting average is still kind of low and he doesn’t have the typical power you expect from a first baseman, but if you replace Delgado’s power with a left fielder and Beltran and Wright return to home run hitting norms next year, I don’t think we’ll be a team that struggles.

You may argue that we could’ve used more power this year, even with no injuries, but I’d disagree. While power couldn’t have hurt, I feel like this team’s strength is speed and aggressiveness. I do not feel Manuel is the best manager for that role however, and I think he’d be a better manager with a power team. Given the option, and given Manuel’s general ineptitude, I’d rather replace him as the manager than try to remake the team into a power team.

If the Mets need to get at least a left fielder, a catcher, another starter and a first baseman it’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford adequate replacements for all of them. So of Daniel Murphy, Angel Pagan, Gary Sheffield, Brian Schneider, and Livan Hernandez/Tim Redding I think it’s pretty clear that Daniel Murphy is the player to keep for an everyday role next year.