Don’t listen to them. This is just an excuse to temper expectations. The Mets can win both ends of the doubleheader today, if they pitch and hit the ball. Dickey on the mound for the first game with a healthy nail should be the starting point for a win. In my mind you never settle for a situation that includes losing, and accepting a split would be just that. If the Mets win the first game, should they just go home and concede the second? It’s hard to win both anyway right, so why burn out the pitchers? If you concede you solve the “Who pitches Friday?” problem as well, slotting in Capuano.
The Mets split the first doubleheader in Citi Field history on July 30th, 2009 against the Rockies. They swept the Rockies in a doubleheader on 8/19/04 in Colorado.
It’s still early and the Mets are still getting used to each other and the new leadership and the new season. Obviously you’d have preferred a rip-roaring start to this putrid mess of a homestand, but they’ve got a big series against the Braves this weekend and then six games at home against bad teams. Plenty of time to get the ship righted.
Upcoming Milestones:
Carlos Beltran is 1 double away from sole possession of 8th place on the Mets All-Time doubles list. He’s at 182 right now, tied with Cleon Jones.
Reyes, tied with Edgardo Alfonzo at 1136 hits for fourth in franchise history, needs 1 for sole possession. He’ll have a tough time catching up to #3, David Wright with 1163, but they’re both poised to pass Cleon Jones’ 1188 this summer.
Cole Hamels is 2-8 in 13 starts against the Mets, with a 1.513 WHIP. David Wright has a .962 OPS against him in 37PA. In 33 PA, Beltran has an OPS of 1.041 with three home runs.
The Mets get the end of the Phillies rotation, so Wednesday Mike Pelfrey pitches against Joe Blanton.
Shane Victorino hurt his calf on Saturday. He still came in and played a couple of innings at the end of Sunday’s game, but it’s possible his range will be a tick off in center, or that he’ll be a step slower on the bases.
Jose Reyes has good career numbers at Citizen’s Bank Park, and against the Phillies.
Chase Utley hasn’t had a magical recovery and second base is still manned mainly by Wilson Valdez.
In 16 innings, Francisco Rodriguez has yet to allow a run against the Phillies.
Carlos Beltran, in 42 AB, has an OPS of .857 against Roy Halladay. Reyes, in 20 PA, has an OPS of 1.239.
I made a couple more single dollar prop bets yesterday. Nothing real fancy.
Jose Reyes – SB in the 2011 Regular Season
Over 33½ (-125)
Mariano Rivera – Total Saves in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 36 (-115)
Will any of the Big 4 win the NL Cy Young?
Big 4 include Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels
No -180
Cole Hamels – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 16½ (-120)
Carlos Beltran – BA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over .273 -115
Andy Pettitte – Will he pitch for the Yankees in the 2011 Regular Season
No -200
How many of the Big 4 will win over 20 games or more in the 2011 Regular Season?
Under 1 (-115)
RA Dickey – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Over 11½ (-115)
Who will win more games in the regular season series between the 2 teams listed. Must play at least 15 games for action. New York Mets +240
Competitor: Atlanta Braves
In what still feels like a dream, the Mets continue to invite some of us bloggers to chat with Mets VIPs. Tonight we had a conference call with Terry Collins. My impressions of him are positive, he seems very high energy and seems to be making a concerted effort to learn from previous mistakes and accept that he doesn’t know everything. He still strikes me as a fairly traditional manager in terms of the Xs and Os, but it’s still rare for a baseball team to stray far from that in a managerial hire.
I asked him about keeping players fresh and managing playing time, specifically as it related to Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. (And David Wright, but he didn’t answer that and we know Wright will be fine anyway)
He mentioned Beltran will probably play five of seven games starting out, and hopefully will strengthen his knees and when it gets warmer hopefully play more. With Reyes, he acknowledged that Reyes is a guy that gives you everything he’s got and it’s important to get him rest when he needs it, and to possibly double it up by resting him going into or coming out of an off day. Here’s his response as transcribed by Michael Baron of Metsblog.
“Carlos and I have already discussed the upcoming ten day period, and resting that leg, so he can continue on a positive note and his legs can get stronger and stronger for the hot months. Even if he’s on the bench, he can come up and make a big difference. We hope to have him in five out of seven games to start off. Regarding Reyes, he goes out there, gives all he has, and I want him out there a lot so I have to be wise enough to maybe give him days off before an off-day. One thing we have to do, because we aren’t very deep, is to make sure we are ready to compete later in the summer.”
Michael Baron at Metsblog transcribed this quickly and efficiently.
Greg at Faith and Fear in Flushing finds Terry Collins’ enthusiasm infectious, even on the phone.
Eric Simon at Amazin’ Avenue asks Terry about Kerfuffle.
Kerel Cooper at On The Black with a recap and better list of links than this.
Here’s a list of some normal, and some abnormal, bets on the Mets this year. Purely for fun, feel free to leave your picks in the comments. or suggest some other good over/unders.
Reyes
1. over/under .345 OBP (I suspect this may be over/under Met in 2012)
2. over/under 142 games played.
3. over/under 60 SB
Wright
4. over/under 30 HR
5. over/under 150 Ks
Bay
6. over/under 25 HR
Beltran
7. over/under 130 games played
8. over/under 25 HR
9. over/under 10 SB
10. Will Beltran or Chase Utley have more home runs this year?
K-Rod
11. over/under 55 games finished
Ike Davis
12. over/under .275 avg
13. over/under 23 HR
Jon Niese
14. over/under 200Ks
15. Who will start more games?
a. Johan Santana
b. Dillon Gee
c. Chris Young
16. Who has a better year, R.A. Dickey, or Cole Hamels?
17a. Will Emaus be the starting second baseman all year?
17b. If no, is his replacement
A. On the team
B. In the minors
C. on another team
D. Not currently playing baseball
E. Luis Castillo
This evening a selection of bloggers had a second conference call with Mets general manager Sandy Alderson. The first one took place in December. There were a lot of great questions asked, and I’m sure there will be a full recap around the blogosphere. For now, the response to my question, followed by links to the other bloggers’ write-ups that I will update as I see them.
I asked Alderson how active he would be with transactions this season, in particular with regards to the second base or bullpen candidates that “just missed” making the team.
He explained that once these final decisions are made in Spring Training, a lot of that possible depth in the bullpen goes away. Guys may have to be offered back if they’re rule 5 picks, or they may choose to opt out of their contracts or just retire. The depth in the bullpen would most likely be Igarashi, although the Mets are pretty deep at second base. He stressed the importance of making sure guys are given a chance to perform and not go into every game like it could be their last. I feel like this is a big upgrade from last year; despite the ultimate results, I didn’t think it was fair for guys like John Maine and Oliver Perez to have it constantly held over their head that they were pitching for their careers to the point that Jerry Manuel actually publicly contemplated removing Maine from the rotation without ever mentioning it to him.
This is a good philosophy to have, but I wonder if it may be a little naive. After all, it’s not usually the manager and GM that are holding the axe over a players head, it’s the fans and sports radio. Mike Jacobs and Frank Catalanotto only got 28 and 26 plate appearances respectively before being cast away, and it seems like the fans were calling for their heads long before that. Obviously the first base position took a rough turn when Murphy got hit with an injury days before the Opener, but what amounts to seven or eight games is hardly a telling sample size. Ultimately getting Ike Davis on the Mets, particularly when Murphy experienced a setback in recovery, was a good move but that doesn’t mean Jacobs or Catalanotto got a real fair shot to contribute.
Two quick things I took note of during the call. One is that there is still a chance Nick Evans makes this team, regardless of what happens with Beltran. The other is it seemed like Sandy’s biggest test for Jose Reyes is his on base percentage, and that if he can raise that, he’ll be resigned. I’m confident both will happen.
I’m back from Spring Training, and it’s all too soon. I was having a lot of fun poking around Port St. Lucie and Digital Domain Park. I took 500 pictures over three days, and captured images of many of our favorite, and less favorite, Mets players. I watched road, home, and minor league games and saw players from the low minors to the cream of the crop doing all different kinds of baseball drills. I met Amber Coyle, and Matthew Rose of NL East Chatter and The Real Dirty Mets Blog.
First, check out these two posts I put up last week involving Mets eating dinner and pictures from the St. Patrick’s Day game against the Red Sox and then click below to view more pictures.
Last week Ted Berg wrote this piece about optimism in response to a different optimistic post by Patrick Flood. Scratchbomb retweeted it, noting that optimism is not a sin. I like the phrase, and it’s good to see others jumping aboard the optimism bandwagon and joining the club (see the sidebar to join the Optimistic Mets Fan Club on Facebook), whether it’s just front office philosophy or not.
Ted and Patrick wrote about optimism mainly in regards to the Mets offseason moves, and sabermetrics. A lot of discussions these days get twisted into an “everything Omar did was bad and Alderson is a sabermetric genius and won’t make those same mistakes.” Sure, Omar didn’t rely on advanced statistics as much as Alderson does, but as Ted suggested, the Mets aren’t in a position to lose 120 games. There were flaws in this team, even without the injury issues, but the team is talented, promoted minor leaguers that have contributed and will contribute in the future, and is in a good position to add pieces in the future as need be. Moves are not necessarily easier to be positive about just because they are made with a larger emphasize on advanced statistical analysis and the Chris Youngs of 2011 are looking to fill a much larger role than the bench spots Omar signed Jacobs and Matthews Jr to last year.
Sabermetrics or not, the Mets offseason was a collection of minor signings meant to represent depth and upside. There weren’t many good or great players to be had at anything approaching reasonable value and the Mets roster wasn’t the swiss cheese of baseball rosters that many made it out to be. Alderson hit the holes, and hit them hard. Multiples options for second base and lots of bench guys to slot in at various positions around the field to provide suitable backups and provide depth should a regular need to sit out a couple of days. A handful of pitchers who have potential, or have had a great year or two when they stay healthy to make up the two empty rotation spots, and a barrel full of relievers to make up a bullpen in what sounds like it will be a no-holds barred cage match in Spring Training for the last three or four spots.
Optimism is not a sin. I try, and I’ll continue to try until the division is clinched, to make a case for how and why the Mets will win the division. The odds may be stacked against them and they may need more things to go right than would be considered normal luck but that doesn’t mean they it’s impossible, or that it’s useless to be hopeful and upbeat that they can happen, and that the Mets can win.
I truly believe that the Mets could have one of the best offenses in the National League, and I’m not going to be shy about proclaiming that. Looking at the lineup, it’s certainly not a stretch. There is a certain amount of recovery from some and growing from others needed for it to happen, but it’s not out of the question. Closer to Opening Day I’ll make my official case for how and why I’m predicting the Mets will clinch the division on 9/25 against the Phillies.
Most importantly, the games still have to be played. Every year there are dozens of pitchers that were great and revert to being pretty average. There are rookies that take off in their second year to have great years, and players that overcome injury in previous seasons to have bounce back years. When those players bouncing back are perennial All-Stars, the bounce is that much higher. There are surprises every season; no one knows what’s going to happen. Even the predicted favorite from the offseason rarely makes it all the way to the World Series. Take the Sports Illustrated picks from last season; not even one supposed expert got either of the pennant winners correct.
So don’t get caught up in the negativity around the Mets. There is nothing wrong with thinking some of the Mets signings will have a good year and stay healthy, that Ike Davis could blossom into an excellent player or that Reyes and Beltran in their walk year put up numbers close to their career norms. With better coaching and leadership it’s a pretty good bet that the Mets will get more out of their talent than they have in years past. Remember: Optimism is not a sin!
Update: Here’s a post by Brian DiMenna who’s joined the Optimistic Mets Fan Club.
All teams have a variety of different roster spots open for the taking in Spring Training. So what should we be watching in Port St. Lucie with the Mets? (And if you’re watching on SNY, the games will be in HD this year!)
Tiki Hut at Digital Domain Park
Health
Keeping players healthy is definitely number one. This includes building up arm strength and recovering from an injury that ended last season, or simply not getting hurt. Jason Bay, Francisco Rodriguez and Daniel Murphy ended up the season on the disabled list. The primary goal from them is to get to Opening Day without experiencing any pain or lingering effects of what ailed them last year. Bay and Rodriguez have both been reported healthy and pain free, but it’ll be good to show that in real spring training games. Daniel Murphy has had some knee issues, and the best shot he has at winning a job this season is to not be hampered by lingering pain that prevents him from putting in the work both at second base, and at the plate, that he needs.
Some guys have been injured frequently, to various degrees, and may be at risk again. Chris Young, Chris Capuano, Carlos Beltran are three of the most recent cases. Beltran has mainly been dealing with one issue, a lack of cartilage in his knee, and may have that under control via an understanding of what ails him, and a knee brace that keeps his knee bones from bruising further. Beltran’s goal this spring is to prove the brace hasn’t reduced his range significantly in center field, and to get the reps at the plate he needs to keep up to speed without needlessly stressing his knee in exhibition games.
Young and Capuano have more to prove if they want to earn a spot on this team and continue contributing for the entire season. Consistent starts this spring with no reports of pain or soreness would go a long way to giving us confidence that can give us some quality innings.
Jose Reyes often gets mentioned in the injury discussion, but really he was healthy for most of 2011. He had a medical condition that had him almost literally rolling out of bed and into the field in April, and had a slight oblique strain mid-season that was so poorly managed by the Mets and their manager that it probably cost him twice as many games as it needed to. Players get nicked u, and an oblique strain isn’t something to worry about. Given these parameters, it seems like 2010 is the absolute floor of what we can expect out of Reyes for any given season, and given a full spring worth of preparation it’s not unfair to expect him to be much better again.
The Stars
The results may not matter, but it’s still fun to watch some of the best in the game play. The Mets have a nice core of excellent players. David Wright and Jason Bay can launch home runs and bash the ball all over the place. Jose Reyes can run wild and be his energetic, fun to watch self. Carlos Beltran may go back to making difficult defensive plays look easy while blasting home runs.
While maybe not on the same level, yet, many other players that have jobs secured are fun to watch. Ike Davis has some great power and is maturing as a hitter. R.A. Dickey is an amazing guy and watching him taunt hitters with the knuckleball is always fun. Jon Niese progressing with his devastating curveball or Bobby Parnell blowing guys away with his occasionally triple digit fastball will make highlights reels all spring long.
Rounding Out the Roster
Which guys will make the team seemingly out of nowhere? Who will have a monster spring and launch themselves into the conversation for 5th starter, or long reliever, or first pinch hitter off the bench? A lot of the bullpen is open for guys looking to have a strong showing. Beyond second base that has a couple of favorites, but is an open competition, there are a couple of different ways the Mets could fill out the extra bench spots. Could it be Nick Evans? Or Scott Hairston? What about Jason Pridie or Justin Turner?
The Future
What’s more exciting than seeing what may be on tap for the years to come? Jenrry Mejia make a lot of noise last spring, enough that he mistakenly got a roster spot in the bullpen. He’ll be exciting to watch this year to see how’s he progressed and if he’s someone we can look forward to in the future. You’ve got some possible outfielders that look exciting, like Lucas Duda or Kirk Nieuwenhuis.
The Broadcast
Besides the games finally being in high definition, Gary, Keith, Ron, and Kevin are a joy to listen to do a game. Just like Spring Training is a little more lax than the regular season, so are the broadcasts. Obviously most of us don’t have the opportunity to listen to them live, because most games are on at 1pm, but if you do get a chance it’s well worth it.
Something you’ll hear a lot today:
