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Winning While Slumping: A Rant

image by CeetarTeams slump. The Mets were leading the league in runs per game and suddenly the offense slumped and they started losing. They’re now 6th in runs score in MLB. The Mets are still auditioning center and right fielders with no one standing out, Ruben Tejada and Ike Davis have under performed, and we knew John Buck was not that good.

 

All teams slump, good ones, great ones, and horrible ones. It’s too early to say which the Mets are, and it’s certainly silly to take the results of the last week as more meaningful than the first couple just because it fits better with what you expected, but good teams should find a way to win at least some games while they’re slumping. The Phillies are probably not a great team, and getting swept by them is not a good sign. There were plenty of opportunities that the Mets let get away, and while it’s possible to do everything right and still lose, it’s also possible to steal games when you’re struggling.

 

John Buck, Ike Davis, and a couple of others muffed a couple of foul outs that could’ve been converted. Not all of them led directly to runs, but all the extended innings and extra pitches lead to things like tired arms or more bullpen. Pitchers made a couple of poor pitches on top of poor pitches that led to runs. Perhaps Terry Collins could’ve been more aggressive, or less aggressive, in pitching changes or lineup changes that ended up costing the Mets a better shot at winning. Like most losing streaks, there are a billion second guesses of the players, the manager, and the overall strategy.

 

Sometimes the bounces go the wrong way, the pitcher you choose has a bad day, or the pitch you guess is simply wrong. Those are the breaks, the notorious 50 games that every team loses and there is nothing you can do about. Teams destined for the playoffs will find ways to minimize the damage while they’re slumping. Sometimes a pitcher will pitch a gem and stifle the opponent enough to steal a win with only a run or two, other times a batter here or there will capitalize on the one bad pitch the opponent throws for a 3-run home run to win the game 3-2 even though the offense only managed three hits. This avoids sweeps and turns 1-2 series losses into 2-1 series wins. When the slump end the team will only have gone 4-6 instead of 2-8 and can use a surge in fortune to get ahead of the competition instead of making up for the ground they lost during the slump.

 

So far the Mets are not doing this. That’s not to say they can’t. Lucas Duda, Ike Davis, and David Wright are all talented enough to have game-changing at bats even amidst personal or team slumps. Matt Harvey and Jon Niese are talented pitchers, both capable of pitching a gem that wins a game despite slumping offense. Jon Niese came close Sunday, and perhaps Terry Collins should’ve left him in to finish the seventh instead of going to the bullpen to face Ryan Howard. I’m always a fan of having the top players on my team on the mound or at the plate during the critical points in the game, and that was certainly one of them.

 

It’s early yet, and the teams that win in April are not a lock to get to October. If the Mets are going to grow into a competitor, they’re going to have to find a way to minimize long losing streaks and win some of these games when things aren’t going perfectly.

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It Was Just One Game, Let’s Overreact

It was a horrible game. The Mets played sloppy baseball all around the diamond, and didn’t hit the ball with runners in scoring position. Niese didn’t throw enough curveballs and was forced to get too many outs in one inning, but survived through five.

This game was not a result of comments made by guys in suits. This game was the result of play on the field, which wasn’t better than the Cubs play on the field. Ruben Tejada was not thinking about what a meanie Fred Wilpon was to Jose Reyes when he failed to catch a pop-up going back.

Jason Bay is not done.   He’s not very good, deserves all sorts of criticism, and is killing the lineup but he’s not done.   Just like Carlos Delgado was not done in 2008. Remember him? I always laugh because there’s a blog out there called Ketchup On Your Ice Cream, whose last post was a frantic call for Mike Carp to replace him.  This blog still stands, nearly three years later, as a monument to not overreacting.   Yes, Bay looks horrible.  Luckily he’s a hard worker and a hustler.  He can come out of it.  No better time than right now, when the Mets need offense the most. 

Justin Turner is not “regressing to the mean” as I saw one beat writer note last night.  Rookies do not regress, because the idea of regressing suggests a baseline value.  Justin Turner does not have a baseline value, because his major league sample size is ridiculously small.  Even punching in his Buffalo numbers to the extremely questionable minor league equivalency calculator gives him a respectable .743 OPS in the majors.  Obviously it’s unlikely he’ll hit like Albert Pujols and drive in a run every game, but that doesn’t mean he’s trash. 

The Mets are not done.  Yes, they’re in a tough spot with the offense.  Justin Turner helped some, but when he cooled off no one else stepped up to get big hits.  When the offense is struggling the defense needs to make the plays and avoid costly mistakes that extend innings and make things tougher.  The Mets had been pretty good at that, but they’ve gotten sloppy again lately.  They’ve got one of those “turning point” series coming up this weekend with the Phillies.  Everyone overreacting right now will likely be overreacting in the other direction if the Mets win that series.

The pitching is not horrible.  The bullpen is actually very good, but the starters are what’s in question here.  Yes, Pelfrey and Niese fell apart around some sloppy play and bad luck, but they’re not crap.  Pelfrey is a solid above average workhorse type pitcher and Niese is still learning the league and the craft.  Dickey put up a good showing on Friday and hopefully that means he’s back in command of his knuckleball.   Gee’s a rookie and Capuano’s pretty solidly average.  I’ve long been saying the good part of the Mets rotation, and the team in general, is that they all around don’t suck.  There aren’t any huge black holes and automatic outs or gimme pitchers.   Every pitcher is capable of pitching very well, and most of the time they’ll keep the team in games.   The lack of an ace, for now, is mitigated some by having an above average back end of the rotation.  I also suspect Sandy Alderson is looking for a couple of pitchers that could help out a little, for depth purposes, but it’s hard to find much in May. 

So in the end, it’s just one game.  You can’t overreact and point to every three game losing streak as confirmation  that all the negative gibberish spouted about the Mets is true anymore than you can take a three game winning streak as evidence that I’m correct in my prediction of the Mets clinching the division on August 25th against the Phillies.  It’s a long season, and lots of things change week to week and even day to day.

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Keep Doing That

Swing and a Miss

The Mets starting pitcher, R.A. Dickey pitched as well as, or better than, the Astros pitcher Bud Norris.  Dickey pitched eight innings and gave up four runs, for a 4.5 ERA on the day, and Norris pitched six innings and gave up three runs, also equaling a 4.5 ERA.   I’d give the tie-breaker to length, especially since relievers are generally not as good as starters.

The Mets also out-hit the Astros. The Mets got 12 hits, with three extra base hits, and the Astros got eight, with three extra base hits.

Of course, when all was said and done the Mets made a variety of mistakes and lost the game.  The Mets cannot afford to lose these games that are practically handed to them, but if they continue to pitch and hit like they did today, they WILL win most of those games. What they need to do is identify what they’re doing wrong that’s giving them such a low amount of runs per hit, and why the opponents hits seem to be worth so much more. 

Not bunting with only three precious outs left on the first pitch with one of the fastest guys in the game on first base would also go a long way towards not losing.

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5-1 Homestand Still Alive

I wanted the Mets to go 5-1 on this homestand to claw their way back to respectability.   If they lose the first one, the third one, or the 6th one, the resulting record is the same.  I’m sure the Mets understand this, but I’m going to head out to Flushing tomorrow to make sure they start winning again.  (Follow me for in-game thoughts and pictures from around Citi Field)

 

While it’s still April and very early, the longer the Mets play losing baseball the better they’ll have to play, for longer, to make up for it.  While I still believe the Mets are a good team, and certainly better than this, there does come a point where they’re going to have to show it.  They don’t have to come out blazing to a 10-1 stretch and just destroy everyone, but they do have to play consistent baseball and win more games than they lose.

 

They just need to win, and it doesn’t need to be pretty.  It could  be a 9-walk complete game shutout.  A 4-error game where the opposition fails to capitalize.  Jose Reyes could power the offense with three home runs in a 9-8 slugfest.  At this point they just need to start putting up Ws.  It starts with not giving free bases, not giving up outs, and not making too many dangerous mistakes in the field.  But it also starts with picking up your teammates when they do make a mistake, such as Wright did diving to get Lee at third base after Turner’s error.  Pitchers need to start striking out a batter after an error and not getting rattled by it and the fielders need to stop thinking they need to get two outs at once and stop panicking in the field.

 

Divisions are not won in April.  In fact, three of last years playoff teams were at or below .500 on May first.  There is still time for the Mets to settle down and start playing better.   There’s plenty of time for Collins to stop playing guys that tend to suck, and for Alderson to wish those that suck away into the cornfield for players from the minors or other clubs that suck less.

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Too Early To Worry or Overreact

Three Game Losing Streak

Doesn’t look good does it? The Sunday night game against the Phillies was probably just a result of Pelfrey not going to be excellent every single time out there, and Feliciano’s occasional streakiness. Yesterday was probably a result of using the B lineup, coupled with the remaining A guys slumping.

There are some concerns, but it’s still a little early to be panicking over them. Delgado has been declining, and it looked rather bad last year. The thing is, he had good stretches where he looked fine. So the ability is still there, and I suspect what he needs is some consistency, some warmer weather, and just some swings. For everyone screaming about Church batting 6th, you have to think that him hitting well in the 6th hole helps Delgado. As little as lineups matter when everyone’s not hitting, there are pluses and minuses to each of them.

Luis Castillo has been bad early, but he’s also still hurt. Maybe he’ll be hurt for the rest of his life and he sucks, or maybe, like Delgado, time will help. I don’t want to hear about the contract anymore. Stop thinking about 2011. If this was a one year deal, you wouldn’t be complaining about it, and since this is the very first year you can’t have a problem that he’s on the team in 2011. I liked Gotay too, but he wasn’t the greatest defensive player, and he only had a small small sample of hitting successfully. It’s smaller than the sample size people are using to bash Castillo and Delgado even.

So give it time. Some of these things may turn into big problems, and then it becomes Willie and Minaya’s problems to address, but for now they’re merely points of interest. You can’t fire the manager, bench your star first baseman, or promote question marks from Binghamton on April 22nd.