Time For The Mets To Extend Noah Syndergaard

Noah Syndergaard, if you’re still reading about the Mets at this point, is a hot topic of trade rumors these days. These seem to be real rumors too, and not the clickbait ones SNY was peddling in Spring Training. While turning pitchers into prospects if you can get excess value is usually a good bet given the fragile nature of pitchers, particularly hard throwing ones that haven’t had Tommy John surgery, I think the better play is to extend him, not trade him.

The Mets control Syndergaard for two more years after this one. He has a career 3.21 ERA and accumulated 17.1 fWAR so far. Speaking of WAR, it’s at 2.7 this season. That’s 21st in baseball. (Jacob deGrom is 7th and Zack Wheeler is 25th) The ERAs aren’t as sparkling as last year, but at least with Syndergaard, a lot of that can be chalked up to two things. The juiced ball, and defense.

Syndergaard’s HR rate has spiked, as has literally everyone’s with the way the ball is these days. He’s on record saying he’s struggled to get the same grip on it as he has in previous years. It’s something he knows to work on, and sometimes does seem to have better success, and it’s also something that might be corrected if there’s any correction to the ball in 2020. It’d be foolish to plan on that correcting, but Thor’s still providing a lot of value despite it, and a correction can only help pitchers. You’d also hate to pull a Daniel Murphy, and trade him only to have the ball change in his favor afterwards.

The other thing that’s hurt Syndergaard is LOB%, the percentage of baserunners he strands. This is a stat that’s mostly out of the pitcher’s control, though obviously higher strikeout pitchers will tend to strand more runners. Syndergaard is 31st of qualified pitchers with a 23.8 K%, which is above the starting pitcher league average 22.3. Thor has the 10th worst LOB% of qualified pitchers at 68.1%, and Zack Wheeler is 5th worse. League average is 72%. Defense can kill this, allowing a lower percentage of balls in play to become outs.

So Noah Syndergaard is a really good pitcher still, and could be even better. He’s under team control. This is only his age 26 season. That’s the kind of guy you want on your team. I don’t know what Thor would be looking for in a contract extension. He’s previously shown to be very cognizant of how underpaid MLB players are pre-free agency, so perhaps he’s not willing to give away any of that. Still, if you can pay him more for 2020 and 2021 to buy 2022 and possible more, it’d be hard to believe a trade package could be worth more than Syndergaard himself, barring a spring 2020 Tommy John surgery that cancels is 2020 and 2021 season, but that could just as easily happen to the pitcher the Mets would have to acquire to replace him.

The Mets should absolutely listen to offers on any player they have that can garner something big in return, and measure the odds of that making the team better both in 2020 and beyond, but it’s hard to see the Mets getting a return that has a high-probability of out-performing Noah Syndergaard himself. Keep him, extend him and enjoy him. 


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Forget Manny Machado, Sign Josh Donaldson

This headline is clickbait, there a ton of reasons to covet Manny Machado over virtually everyone else, but those are obvious, and less interesting to write about. Machado is awesome, he fits the Mets very well, and they should absolutely try to sign him. Alas, all 29 other teams are also aware of this guy, and the Mets could seriously pursue him and still not get him.

So what other infield help is there? Well, there’s Josh Donaldson.

The big risk with Donaldson is that he’ll be 33 and had a bad and injured season. You could read into that as the end of the line for him as a useful player, it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing. You definitely have to give him his physical, look at the underlying numbers, do your due diligence. If you find a red flag, balk, but if you don’t, he could be a huge addition.

Donaldson was a late bloomer, and floundered a bit his rookie year at age 26 in 2012, but after that he’s been among the best in baseball. Last season was hampered by injury, but he was traded to Cleveland and mashed much like he’s mashed in the past. It was a small 60 plate appearance sample, but all the peripheral stats seem to support him being much like himself.

He’s a great hitter, he’s got power, he walks a bunch, he makes a lot of solid contact. He’s not fast, but he’s not a base-clogger. He plays good defense. He’s not exclusively a pull-hitter, shifts don’t seem to hurt him too much. He’s a righty, which plays nicely with the Mets having a lot of lefties providing their power right now.

MLB Trade Rumors is predicting the Cardinals will sign him for $20 million, one year. That seems like a steal. Crowd-sourced predictions at Fangraphs have him signing for 3/58, which could still be a steal if Donaldson puts up even something less than his career line. If he’d simply stayed healthy and had an average year, he’d be getting mentioned with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.

Steamer projections have him just a tick off his average, at 4.6 fWAR for 2019. Even if he continued to decline from there, getting 10 or so WAR from Donaldson over three years would be worth 60 million, easy.

Donaldson might want to try to have a healthy season and jump back into the fray, but Nolan Arenado will be a free agent next year and Donaldson would be a year older too. Perhaps Donaldson could be the right target while other teams are focused on Machado, and maybe Donaldson takes one option off the board for teams looking for shorter term 3B options, raising possible demand for a Todd Frazier trade.

Oh, and Donaldson’s twitter handle is BringerOfRain, which is cool.

 

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We’ll Miss You David

David Wright is returning at the end of this season for, probably, just one game, and maybe not even a full one. The spinal stenosis and related injuries have wrecked his back to the point that it’s a constant companion, and one that has made it so doing the one thing he loves more than anything, playing baseball, is agony.

 

That sucks. On so many levels. David has meant so much to the team, to the fans, to baseball in general. I’ll miss him quite a bit, now that he’s officially not coming back.  He’s been a part of the Mets routine for so long that it’s hard to wrap my head around the idea of him not being out there somewhere, swinging a bat and making great plays at third. He was a Met before I had even had my first real job, long ago.

 

It’s crazy to think about how the game has changed since then. The Mets no longer play at Shea Stadium. There’s Twitter, and Smartphone apps, and hell, smartphones. When Wright debuted, MLB TV was still very new, and Moneyball had just come out the previous year. Fangraphs did not exist. Amed Rosario was eight years old.

 

David Wright was a Hall of Fame caliber player,  and he was ours. I think about him hitting these last few years, with the juiced ball that seems to particularly favor the type of hard-contact, gap-hitting player that David Wright is was, and I lament that we didn’t get to see him putting up what surely would’ve been a few more MVP caliber seasons that would’ve cemented his Hall of Fame case.  We’ve spent David’s career watching him climb over and take every Mets record imaginable, and he’s been stuck so close to taking that Home Run title from Darryl Strawberry for so long that it’s been agony.

 

But mostly, I’m just sad for David Wright. By all accounts a great guy that loves playing this game and now he’ll struggle to even play some token innings at the end of a lost season. This isn’t how it was supposed to go.

 

 

 

 

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Who Will Save The Mets?

It’s been rough hasn’t it? Luckily, the season is still pretty young. Let’s try to find Mets players to latch to as reasons the Mets will be better going forward.

 

Let’s start with Amed Rosario. Our top prospect guy who didn’t suddenly appear and set the league on fire as happened, so far, for teams like the Yankees and Braves. So far. It’s early, remember. A month of mashing does not mean a decade of success is eminent for anyone.

 

Amed Rosario still isn’t walking enough, but he has walked twice in the last few days. Once as a pinch-hitter, which is hopeful for a guy that seems to get over-aggressive even when he has four or five AB in a game. He’s also hitting the ball hard. The more of the beginning season you cut off, the better his numbers look. It’s been a slow climb, but he’s starting to contribute with more than just defense. His talent will continue to manifest as he learns and adjusts, and hopefully he gets a little more patient as well.

 

Michael Conforto is an easy one. He came back earlier than expected and had a good initial few games and then slumped a bit. While he slumped he was still getting on base via walks, which I always find to be a trait in the really good hitters. Carlos Beltran was this way a lot. He’s starting to drive the ball now and get comfortable, which will be make him a real threat going forward.

 

Brandon Nimmo has been great all year, at times being near the top in baseball in wRC+. He’s almost definitely not _that_ good, but enough time has passed that it seems obvious that he’s a very good baseball player and should be playing more. It feels like the media, and maybe the Mets too, have finally started to take note.

 

Devin Mesoraco is better than Matt Harvey, who’s still not missing bats and walking too many, so that’s an upgrade. He was always a guy with talent that maybe hadn’t realized it, and so far he’s thriving here with the Mets. He won’t continue at this pace, but Kevin Plawecki is back now too, and Plawecki has been pretty good this season and last, and has a good eye at the plate. At the very least this means they don’t have a hole at catcher in the lineup, and it helps keep the offense moving.

 

I’m always hesitant to bank on guys coming back from injuries soon to necessarily do so, but the Mets have a few guys starting rehab games which should mean they’re almost back. Getting Todd Frazier and Yoenis Cespedes back will help the offense a lot, and Anthony Swarzak will hopefully be a nice add to the bullpen.

 

The Mets have two of the best starting pitchers in the game, but they’ve managed to queue up some of the worse bullpen performances of the year behind them. Logic states that this is just a lot of bad luck, and as the season progresses it’ll even out, and Mickey Callaway will start to have more trust, and more arms, to use in better spots. An improving offense building bigger leads will help too. Callaway’s bullpen management should adjust as the innings mount and relievers show him who can and cannot be trusted. This should pay off down the road.

 

Wheeler’s actually been better than it seems, and has been one of the victims of some bad defense. He’s given up a few too many home runs, and walked a few too many guys. Some of that’s fly ball luck, some of it might just be something that we have to live with, but he strikes guys out and is due for some more of those bounces to find gloves instead of glance off them.

 

The Mets rotation problems have mainly been pitchers absolutely bombing, and it’s hard to see that continue for long. Technically, Jason Vargas is a lot better than he’s shown, even if he’s not particularly good. He’s pretty much what you’d call a veteran journeyman though, and if he can tweak whatever the problem is and give the Mets a stretch of decent starts, that’d go a long way. Stephen Matz has been wild, but even last year this wasn’t the case. If he settles down and starts executing better, he should at least be serviceable.

 

The Mets still have a lot of potential, even if it feels like they’re squandering some of their best chances right now with heartbreaking walk-off losses. Things will pick up soon, let’s just hope they pick up soon enough, and long enough, to catch and pass the Nationals again.

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I’m Not Dead, Think I’ll Go For A Walk

Losing Jacob deGrom for an unspecified amount of time is bad no matter how you cut it.  Losing one singular player, even perhaps the best player, is not catastrophic in baseball.  It’s way too soon to close the casket on this season, or act like we’re going to close the casket, especially when we don’t even know deGrom’s timetable.  Let’s give it a few days at least? The Mets had two of the best pitchers in baseball, but the good news here is that they still have one. Noah Syndergaard is still awesome.

 

It is still a huge blow though, the Mets depth in pitchers was, and is, pretty large, but none of them have stood out. It’ll need to be more than Thor, maybe some decent Wheeler and Vargas starts, and then hope. Between Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Steven Matz, and even Matt Harvey and some of the AAA depth, there’s some potential for quality innings and competitive starts, the Mets just need to find it.

 

The real issue right now is the bats, and getting more offense from some of these guys. Especially with another quality pitcher down, you’d like to score even more runs to account for it, and I suspect the Mets will hit more than they have lately, though the lineup isn’t without it’s own concerns, particularly at catcher.

 

So losing deGrom is a concern, but it’s way too early to panic and there is still a lot of decisions to be made, games to be played, and wins to be had. If you still believe the Nationals are the best team in the division, the Mets still have a nice lead. The Braves and Phillies might be playing well for a month, but there’s no reason to think these teams are this good, even if they were underestimated in the offseason.  It’s time to hold serve, and get back to some winning baseball.  We’ll know more about the holes we need to patch, or repair, in a few weeks.

 

 

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Citi Field Beer Review

I did not have time to scour the entire stadium yesterday, as I spent most of the pregame time at Mikkeller NYC and then had a game to watch, so there’s a chance I missed something, but I don’t think so. Finding good beer shouldn’t be something hidden.

 

First off, prices. Beers are up to $11.25 for a 12oz and $14 for a 25oz. That’s a lot. They were $7.50 when Citi Field first opened 10 years ago.

 

At Big Apple Brews the selection has been paired down over the years. It’s always been an Anheuser Busch-Inbev curated list, but now there’s less of the variety.  Mostly the light lager stuff you see everywhere: Presidente, Leffe Blond, Stella, Franzikaner, Shock Top, etc. Followed by a bunch of AB-InBev’s choice of beers from their high end line of acquired craft breweries. These are the beers they’re trying to push nationally, with a touch of local because Blue Point is under that umbrella. Their Mosaic Session Ale is a good ballpark beer.

AB-InBev "craft"

So where’s the real craft? In previous years there was a stand behind home plate on the promenade, with a few drafts and a cooler. Now it’s a Goya stand. There were a few things scattered around the park, but the two main places I found were the “Empire State Craft” stands. The one that’s existed in the left field corner on the field level remains, and there’s a new one just to the third base side of the promenade behind home plate.

This isn’t what I’d call a great selection or variety, but it’s roughly what’s been there the last few years. I had LIC’s Higher Burning and Mikkeller’s Henry Hops, and I enjoyed both. Hopefully as Mikkeller gets up and running they can sneak a few more cans into the stadium as the season goes on. I also wasn’t given the option of a cup for my beer, as I had in the past.

 

The Mikkeller NYC brewery just outside the Right Field gate, outside the stadium, was the real winner. I’ll have a more detailed review of that place coming up.

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Anticipating the Bedlam of Opening Day at Citi Field

Opening Day is finally just about here. It’s always a fun time out at the ballpark, but this year especially there is so much to see and do.

 

Besides the usual catching up with friends and tailgates, there’s the new Mikkeller NYC brewery to check out. 60 taps and a cool space just outside the gates? That’s a must see.

 

Once inside I need to allow myself enough time to to a loop of the stadium, check out what’s new, what’s changed, what looks different, and any unreported new food items.  With a sold out crowd that’s more in the hangout mode than a game-watching mode, that’s harder to do efficiently than usual.  I’m particularly interested to see if there are any new Mikkeller options INSIDE the stadium, or any other new beers in general.

 

Then it’s just taking in the atmosphere, enjoying being back at a baseball game, and having a good time. Watching the Mets crush the Cardinals and get this season off to a roaring start will just be a bonus. I’m predicting a Todd Frazier home run.

 

Let’s Go Mets!

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Seth Lugo Not a Huge Surprise

Seth Lugo making the Mets Opening Day roster is not actually a surprise. Just take a look at these first two Google search results.

Mickey Callaway came in with a reputation for curveballs, Seth Lugo has a good curveball. Dan Warthen was reportedly not a huge fan of curveballs. A change in regime is can rewire the assumptions we make about how the Mets will handle a given situation, and this is a good one. They may not admit it, but managers and coaches have favorite players too–guys they believe in more than others. Given what we know, it’s not surprising that Lugo’s curveball makes the roster.

This isn’t to say that the team is down on Zack Wheeler either. Lugo’s repertoire already more closely resembled with Eiland and Callaway want to do. Zack Wheeler may simply need some more reps in adjusting to the new schema, and we could certainly be seeing him sooner rather than later, given how brittle pitchers can be.

The most important thing here is that the Mets have (almost) made it to Opening Day with more than five options for the rotation, and have some talented depth that gives them the flexibility to replace ineffectiveness, not just injury. It’s a good way to go into the season.

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What We Know About The Brewery At Citi Field

Mikkeller NYC will open at Citi Field on Sunday. As someone craving, demanding and savoring good beer at Citi Field since its inception, you know I’m absolutely thrilled about this. 60 rotating taps at a brewery/tap room just outside the stadium, typically open before and after games? What’s not to love?

Although there is no indication they’ll be open early before Opening Day, we do have a few details, in part from an Eater post, about what’s going on. There’s a menu, which is interesting but I’ll be trying the new stuff inside the stadium first anyway. I want a draft list, and Eater only lists four beers of 60. Henry Hops and Say Hey Sally, which were inside the stadium last year, Beer Geek Parlor Coffee Stout which is their Beer Geek line using locally roasted coffee, and Fruit Face w/ Cranberry, Rhubarb and Orange, which is a Berliner Weiss, a sour wheat ale.

Amazin’ Avenue writer and editor Chris McShane has some more info in this tweet. Looking at that tap list picture it looks like the Parlor Oatmeal Coffee Stout is the only other NYC brewed beer at this time. Lots of stuff from the San Diego brewery and Mikkeller’s portfolio in general, and also a nice compliment of other breweries such as Transmitter, Industrial Arts, Night Shift and Thin Man. Highly regarded breweries. There are sours, dark beers, salty beers, big beers and little beers on this list, which is lots of fun, even if they’re not actually _in_ the ballpark. There’s also 4oz pours, which might be a responsible way to ease into a day of drinking in the sun.

I don’t know if they’ll be an expanded selection inside or not, we’ll have to wait until Opening Day for that, but there’s a new great spot to head before and after a game now, and enjoy delicious beer. That’s where you’ll find me for sure.

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