Why The Mets Can Compete: Best Offense in the NL

Don’t believe everything you hear: The New York Mets can compete for a division title this season.

 

The Best Offense in the National League

The Mets have a surprisingly potent offense, and it’s getting glossed over with all the negativity surrounding the team.  I’ve been calling it the best lineup in the National League, and while it’s certainly premature to proclaim anything like that before the season has started, I think they can definitely make a case for it.  I’m not even the only one that thinks the Mets bats aren’t getting a fair shake. Here’s Ted Berg with his take on the lineup.

There are other good lineups out there.  The Reds scored a ton of runs last year and their lineup remains mostly intact.  Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Scott Rolen make up the meat of that lineup, and that’s pretty formidable.

The Cardinals have Albert Pujols.  You could almost end the discussion right there, as “They have Pujols” is often the deciding factor in which offense is better.  The Cardinals also have Matt Holliday, as well as Yadier Molina, David Freese, and Colby Rasmus.  Still, I’m not sold on Ryan Theriot, Lance Berkman, or Skip Schumaker contributing that much to the lineup.

The Brewers have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.

Perhaps more immediately dangerous to the Mets is the Atlanta Braves. Dan Uggla, Chipper Jones if he’s healthy, Brian McCann behind the plate.  An outfield of Heyward, Prado and McLouth.  The Braves can definitely hit the ball this year.

Now let’s actually look at the Mets.  Pagan has put up great numbers with the Mets and last year could play center as well as anyone.  Jose Reyes is healthy and prepared for the season this year, and already looks to be the Jose we know and love.  He actually had good numbers last year once he finally got up to speed after missing Spring Training.  He needs to walk more, but he’s a dynamic force at the top of the lineup.  Similar to the Braves with Chipper, Carlos Beltran needs to stay healthy and on the field.  It’s easy to forget just how good he is when he’s not playing, but having him in there for 130-140+ games is going to be a great boon.   You’d like David Wright to strike out less, but he’s still a talented frontline bat in the center of the lineup.  Jason Bay had a down year that was punctuated by a concussion, but it’s not hard to think that he’ll return to smashing home runs and getting on base at a great rate.  He doesn’t need to hit 40 to help this team either; if he can keep his OBP high and not make out, even if he only hits 25-30, that’ll be a great help.

Now the back end of the lineup is what will make or break my argument.  I think the Mets have a deep lineup, and unlike past years with guys like Jeff Francoeur, or Gary Matthews Jr, or Brian Schneider, the Mets don’t have an obvious glaring hole.  Ike Davis had an excellent rookie year, and the hope would be that he builds on it.  He’s got a lot of power and was perhaps rushed a bit last year with the injury to Murphy.  Now with a full season, starting the season in the majors and comfortable in his role, hopefully he can improve.  Josh Thole has had limited time, but everything we’ve seen from him has been good. He’s a guy with good bat control that doesn’t strike out and has an above average OBP for a catcher.  We’ve seen some signs that he’ll grow into some power as well.  He’ll never be Mike Piazza, but it’s been a long time since we’ve had a catcher that actually did any hitting.  The last guy in the lineup, right now, is Brad Emaus.  It’s hard to project what he’ll add, as he hasn’t had any major league experience.   He put up very good numbers in AAA last year, with a .397 OBP and 15 home runs.   So he’s a patient guy, and hopefully he can utilize some of that patience to draw walks in the majors as well.

If the lineup holds up as it’s constructed now, it’s certainly in the running for a dangerous lineup.  Will it be “the best?”  Only time will tell, but I like the Mets chances in that regard.

Division Title is Brewing

Regardless of the struggles for the division, the Brewers inability to win games has put up a safety net for the Mets.  They own a substantial lead over the wild card challengers in Milwaukee, so that even were they to lose the division they’d likely make the playoffs.  However, with a Mets win last night, and a Phillies loss, the Mets are now one loss ahead for the division.  That’s really two, because if they were to end tied, the Mets as winners of the season series would get the division, and the Phillies the Wild Card. 

 

There are nine games left, which is also the magic number to clinch the division outright.  Seven is the magic number to clinch the postseason altogether.  Both are doable.  This team looks good right now; finding ways to win, capitalizing on errors, and not letting their own errors hurt them.

 

86 wins in the book, with nine to play.  Chances are they don’t win every one of them, but end up with a comfortable 90-92.  Which is where they’d have been last year if their collapse had been mini instead of total.  Time to finish it out, put the Phillies away, and win this division.  Leave the final weekend at Shea for Shea, not trying to make the playoffs.

 

Argenis Reyes really should just told he can come back next year.  His spot in the lineup should just read ‘out’.  I know Castillo has been slow returning from the DL, but so has Church, and we’re not killing him.  Castillo is better than Argenis, and a hurt Castillo is better than a hurt Easley, and I don’t think Castillo’s that hurt.  Maybe he’s lost a step here and there, but he still can run the bases, still can draw the walk, still gets on base.  If he can get on base, and Wright, Beltran and Delgado can hit, then everythings peachy.  Argenis Reyes however, hasn’t had a hit in over a month spanning 12 games.  He’s had one walk in that span.  Castillo accomplished both last night.

Best team in what now?

Good strong game today by the Mets. The whole game, specifically the 8th inning had the feeling of

“Hey Brewers, look what we can do.”

“Wait, we’re not done. Look what else we can do.”

Good Brews

I was in attendance for the Saturday game against the Milwaukee Brewers. I have a Saturday season plan, so I’m always in attendance for the Saturday games. Today the Brewers just looked good. The Mets were a bit sloppy, Pelfrey’s unseasoned and Ben Sheets pitched pretty well.

I know they didn’t play as well Friday night, but seeing them in person I was impressed. From Tony Gwynn throwing out David Wright at second on his hit off the wall, to the crazy antics of the fourth inning where Prince Fielder popped into a sacrifice double play. 4-2-6-3-6. Gotay drifting back makes the catch in shallow right, and has no momentum on his throw home to get the tagged runner. I wonder if Shawn Green should’ve called him off and made that play? On the throw J.J. Hardy attempts to goto second, and Lo Duca grabs the too late, and way off line throw and guns it to Reyes, who now has Hardy in a rundown. However in the 6-3-6 rundown somehow they forget about the other runner, who scores from second. Sure it sloppy of the Mets to let it happen, but it was also sharp of the Brewers to capitalize on that. J.J. Hardy hit a grand slam, and also made a great catch in the bottom of the 9th of a lopsided game to end it. J.J. Hardy looks like the Freddy Sanchez of this year.

Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano finally shed their 0 eras after that, and any chance of a Met comeback just faded. At least it didn’t come in a situation where they blew the game, and now we can stop worrying every time they come out that they’re due to give up some runs. Feliciano actually got out of the jam Aaron Sele got in in the 6th very nicely. 1 pitch double play, and then another out 3 pitches later.

It’d be nice to win today, not lose another series and hint to the Brewers that they just might not be the best team in the National League. The Braves play against Ian Snell today, who I just picked up in a fantasy league and I think they’ll be losing. I’m still sticking to my prediction that the Mets are going to click one of these next couple of days and go on a tear that takes both the Yankees and the Braves in their wake.