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Letters to the NL East, Part 5, Dear Mets…

Letters to the NL East, Part 5.

 

Dear Beloved New York Mets,

 

Get angry.  Seemingly everyone is against you and no one believes in you, but just because circumstances have worked against you recently doesn’t mean you’re out already for 2011.  What do the experts know?  It’s finally time to actually play some baseball, something you’re all pretty good at.  It’s time to surprise some people.  I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a division winner, with the clinching game coming on Sunday September 25th the Phillies on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.  Bobby Valentine will call the action.

 

David Wright says you need to practice beating teams and getting that swagger and confidence back.  Do it.  The first nine games are against the Marlins, the Nationals, and the Phillies.  With the Phillies you get Hamels who pitches poorly against the Mets, Blanton who’s not very good, and Roy Halladay. It’s the perfect opportunity to get off to a fast start, get Bay and Paulino back, get guys healthy and on track, and start doling out punishment.

 

Remember, as much as the media wants to write about the Mets being in disrepair, the financial mess, and all the recycled story lines about grit and soft players that they’ve used in the past, if you give them a different story to write they’ll run with that too.  People still write about the 1986 team, of which it’s the 25th anniversary of, because their story of beating up on the league and being unapologetic about it was fun to write.  So give the writers a story about redemption and revenge.   Cast the team, and Wright, as David versus Goliath.  Treat everyone as the enemy and don’t let up.

 

The best thing about this team is it’s depth and balance.   There aren’t a lot, if any, bad players on this team.  No Jeff Francoeur, no Gary Matthews Jr.  There are a variety of relievers that could’ve made the team that are waiting around in Port St. Lucie, and there are seemingly a half dozen different outfield prospects that could show up at any given time.  Sure, no one ran away with the second base job, but no one threw it away either.  Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner and even Ruben Tejada are right around the corner, or at the end of the dugout, should Emaus not be the guy.  Your worst pitcher is either a second year prospect who could come close to 200 Ks, or a former All-Star who pitched to a sub-4 ERA in 66 innings last year in returning from injury.

 

You are not going to be easy to beat this year, and with some discipline and health, you could make it a really exciting season.   Remember, no one gets a handicap for winning the division last year, or for having the best team on paper.  It’s time to play the games.

 

Your Excited Supporter,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

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My MLB Player Prop Bets

I made a couple more single dollar prop bets yesterday.   Nothing real fancy.
Jose Reyes – SB in the 2011 Regular Season
Over 33½ (-125)
Mariano Rivera – Total Saves in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 36 (-115)

Will any of the Big 4 win the NL Cy Young?
Big 4 include Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels
No -180
 
Cole Hamels – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 16½ (-120)

Carlos Beltran – BA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over .273 -115
Andy Pettitte – Will he pitch for the Yankees in the 2011 Regular Season
 No -200
 
 
How many of the Big 4 will win over 20 games or more in the 2011 Regular Season?
Under 1 (-115)
RA Dickey – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
 Over 11½ (-115)
 
 
Who will win more games in the regular season series between the 2 teams listed. Must play at least 15 games for action.
New York Mets +240
Competitor: Atlanta Braves

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Interesting Article on Optimism in America

Joe Mathews on Zócalo Public Square wrote an interesting article about optimism in baseball, and also in America.

 

It speaks to the doe-eyed optimism we usually experience on Opening Day, the time when all teams are still tied for first and anything is possible.  And then it tears it down as a sort of “ignorance is bliss” fairy tale.  Mathews suggests we stop holding the game up on a pedestal and instead embrace it and all it’s flaws.  In a way, I think this view has been forced upon us lately, with all the cheating and steroids and looking the other way.  You see some stick their head in the sand and try to forget Andy Pettitte, Barry Bonds, or Alex Rodriguez were, or are, cheating and you see others desperately cling to their innocence and claim their favorite player, whether Piazza or Jeter or someone else, was clean the whole time.  Perhaps it’s better to accept the flaws and the corruption and stop pretending it’s a game played between gentleman and instead a battle of players doing anything they can, against the rules or not, to win.

 

A point he makes about the Mets that a lot of people don’t seem to be bringing up is that a lot of the Mets actions over the past couple of decades have been funded via Madoff profits.  This is perhaps a simplistic look, as the Mets certainly would’ve invested elsewhere and still signed players and make moves, but it’s not a stretch to say that Tom Glavine’s acquisition was funded by Bernie Madoff.

Anyway, it’s an interesting read and it’s not that long. Check it out.

 

 

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Mets Bloggers Chat With Terry Collins

In what still feels like a dream, the Mets continue to invite some of us bloggers to chat with Mets VIPs.  Tonight we had a conference call with Terry Collins.  My impressions of him are positive, he seems very high energy and seems to be making a concerted effort to learn from previous mistakes and accept that he doesn’t know everything.  He still strikes me as a fairly traditional manager in terms of the Xs and Os, but it’s still rare for a baseball team to stray far from that in a managerial hire.

 

I asked him about keeping players fresh and managing playing time, specifically as it related to Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran.  (And David Wright, but he didn’t answer that and we know Wright will be fine anyway)

 

He mentioned Beltran will probably play five of seven games starting out, and hopefully will strengthen his knees and when it gets warmer hopefully play more.  With Reyes, he acknowledged that Reyes is a guy that gives you everything he’s got and it’s important to get him rest when he needs it, and to possibly double it up by resting him going into or coming out of an off day.  Here’s his response as transcribed by Michael Baron of Metsblog.

 

“Carlos and I have already discussed the upcoming ten day period, and resting that leg, so he can continue on a positive note and his legs can get stronger and stronger for the hot months. Even if he’s on the bench, he can come up and make a big difference. We hope to have him in five out of seven games to start off. Regarding Reyes, he goes out there, gives all he has, and I want him out there a lot so I have to be wise enough to maybe give him days off before an off-day. One thing we have to do, because we aren’t very deep, is to make sure we are ready to compete later in the summer.”

 

Michael Baron at Metsblog transcribed this quickly and efficiently.

Greg at Faith and Fear in Flushing finds Terry Collins’ enthusiasm infectious, even on the phone.

Eric Simon at Amazin’ Avenue asks Terry about Kerfuffle.

Kerel Cooper at On The Black with a recap and better list of links than this.

 

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Why The Mets Can Compete: Best Offense in the NL

Don’t believe everything you hear: The New York Mets can compete for a division title this season.

 

The Best Offense in the National League

The Mets have a surprisingly potent offense, and it’s getting glossed over with all the negativity surrounding the team.  I’ve been calling it the best lineup in the National League, and while it’s certainly premature to proclaim anything like that before the season has started, I think they can definitely make a case for it.  I’m not even the only one that thinks the Mets bats aren’t getting a fair shake. Here’s Ted Berg with his take on the lineup.

There are other good lineups out there.  The Reds scored a ton of runs last year and their lineup remains mostly intact.  Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Scott Rolen make up the meat of that lineup, and that’s pretty formidable.

The Cardinals have Albert Pujols.  You could almost end the discussion right there, as “They have Pujols” is often the deciding factor in which offense is better.  The Cardinals also have Matt Holliday, as well as Yadier Molina, David Freese, and Colby Rasmus.  Still, I’m not sold on Ryan Theriot, Lance Berkman, or Skip Schumaker contributing that much to the lineup.

The Brewers have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.

Perhaps more immediately dangerous to the Mets is the Atlanta Braves. Dan Uggla, Chipper Jones if he’s healthy, Brian McCann behind the plate.  An outfield of Heyward, Prado and McLouth.  The Braves can definitely hit the ball this year.

Now let’s actually look at the Mets.  Pagan has put up great numbers with the Mets and last year could play center as well as anyone.  Jose Reyes is healthy and prepared for the season this year, and already looks to be the Jose we know and love.  He actually had good numbers last year once he finally got up to speed after missing Spring Training.  He needs to walk more, but he’s a dynamic force at the top of the lineup.  Similar to the Braves with Chipper, Carlos Beltran needs to stay healthy and on the field.  It’s easy to forget just how good he is when he’s not playing, but having him in there for 130-140+ games is going to be a great boon.   You’d like David Wright to strike out less, but he’s still a talented frontline bat in the center of the lineup.  Jason Bay had a down year that was punctuated by a concussion, but it’s not hard to think that he’ll return to smashing home runs and getting on base at a great rate.  He doesn’t need to hit 40 to help this team either; if he can keep his OBP high and not make out, even if he only hits 25-30, that’ll be a great help.

Now the back end of the lineup is what will make or break my argument.  I think the Mets have a deep lineup, and unlike past years with guys like Jeff Francoeur, or Gary Matthews Jr, or Brian Schneider, the Mets don’t have an obvious glaring hole.  Ike Davis had an excellent rookie year, and the hope would be that he builds on it.  He’s got a lot of power and was perhaps rushed a bit last year with the injury to Murphy.  Now with a full season, starting the season in the majors and comfortable in his role, hopefully he can improve.  Josh Thole has had limited time, but everything we’ve seen from him has been good. He’s a guy with good bat control that doesn’t strike out and has an above average OBP for a catcher.  We’ve seen some signs that he’ll grow into some power as well.  He’ll never be Mike Piazza, but it’s been a long time since we’ve had a catcher that actually did any hitting.  The last guy in the lineup, right now, is Brad Emaus.  It’s hard to project what he’ll add, as he hasn’t had any major league experience.   He put up very good numbers in AAA last year, with a .397 OBP and 15 home runs.   So he’s a patient guy, and hopefully he can utilize some of that patience to draw walks in the majors as well.

If the lineup holds up as it’s constructed now, it’s certainly in the running for a dangerous lineup.  Will it be “the best?”  Only time will tell, but I like the Mets chances in that regard.

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Ceetar’s Mets Prop Bets: Make Your Picks

Here’s a list of some normal, and some abnormal, bets on the Mets this year.  Purely for fun, feel free to leave your picks in the comments. or suggest some other good over/unders.
Reyes
1. over/under .345 OBP (I suspect this may be over/under Met in 2012)
2. over/under 142 games played.
3. over/under 60 SB

Wright
4. over/under 30 HR
5. over/under 150 Ks

Bay
6. over/under 25 HR

Beltran
7. over/under 130 games played
8. over/under 25 HR
9. over/under 10 SB
10. Will Beltran or Chase Utley have more home runs this year?

K-Rod
11. over/under 55 games finished

Ike Davis
12. over/under .275 avg

13. over/under 23 HR

Jon Niese
14. over/under 200Ks

15. Who will start more games?
a. Johan Santana
b. Dillon Gee
c. Chris Young

16. Who has a better year, R.A. Dickey, or Cole Hamels?

17a. Will Emaus be the starting second baseman all year?
17b. If no, is his replacement
A. On the team
B. In the minors
C. on another team
D. Not currently playing baseball
E. Luis Castillo

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A Blogger Chat With Sandy Alderson

This evening a selection of bloggers had a second conference call with Mets general manager Sandy Alderson.  The first one took place in December. There were a lot of great questions asked, and I’m sure there will be a full recap around the blogosphere.  For now, the response to my question, followed by links to the other bloggers’ write-ups that I will update as I see them.



I asked Alderson how active he would be with transactions this season, in particular with regards to the second base or bullpen candidates that “just missed” making the team.

He explained that once these final decisions are made in Spring Training, a lot of that possible depth in the bullpen goes away.  Guys may have to be offered back if they’re rule 5 picks, or they may choose to opt out of their contracts or just retire.  The depth in the bullpen would most likely be Igarashi, although the Mets are pretty deep at second base.  He stressed the importance of making sure guys are given a chance to perform and not go into every game like it could be their last.  I feel like this is a big upgrade from last year; despite the ultimate results, I didn’t think it was fair for guys like John Maine and Oliver Perez to have it constantly held over their head that they were pitching for their careers to the point that Jerry Manuel actually publicly contemplated removing Maine from the rotation without ever mentioning it to him.

This is a good philosophy to have, but I wonder if it may be a little naive.  After all, it’s not usually the manager and GM that are holding the axe over a players head, it’s the fans and sports radio.  Mike Jacobs and Frank Catalanotto only got 28 and 26 plate appearances  respectively before being cast away, and it seems like the fans were calling for their heads long before that.  Obviously the first base position took a rough turn when Murphy got hit with an injury days before the Opener, but what amounts to seven or eight games is hardly a telling sample size.  Ultimately getting Ike Davis on the Mets, particularly when Murphy experienced a setback in recovery, was a good move but that doesn’t mean Jacobs or Catalanotto got a real fair shot to contribute.

Two quick things I took note of during the call.  One is that there is still a chance Nick Evans makes this team, regardless of what happens with Beltran.  The other is it seemed like Sandy’s biggest test for Jose Reyes is his on base percentage, and that if he can raise that, he’ll be resigned.  I’m confident both will happen.

Transcript Courtesy of Michael Baron

Mets Blog

On The Black

Faith and Fear in Flushing

Mets Police

Amazin’ Avenue

The Real Dirty Mets Blog

NJ.com’s Matthew Artus

Mets Today

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Why The Mets Can Compete: The Starting Rotation

Don’t believe everything you hear: The New York Mets can compete for a division title this season.

The starting rotation for the Mets this year looks to be Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Young, and Chris Capuano.  Those five are better than a lot of people give then credit for, but let’s start with the returning Mets from last year.

Mike Pelfrey

Year W L W-L% ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 15 9 .625 3.66 33 204.0 213 88 83 12 68 5 113 107 1.377 9.4 0.5 3.0 5.0 1.66
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Mike Pelfrey had a good year last year, and it’s not unreasonable to think he can have a comparable one.  He had one really bad month that he’ll need to avoid and work through, and hopefully another year of experience can help him do that.  He was one of the best pitchers in the game through April last year, and while he probably won’t be quite _that_ good again, if you balance it against him not being as bad as he was in July, the overall performance can probably be similar to what we see in the table above.  I think there is some hope that he can cut down on the walks and hits a little bit and maybe get better, but that remains to be seen.

R. A. Dickey

Year Age W L ERA G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 35 11 9 2.84 27 26 2 174.1 165 62 55 13 42 104 138 1.187 8.5 0.7 2.2 5.4 2.48
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

R.A. Dickey came out of nowhere last season to have one of the best years in the league.  In fact his numbers are better than all of the pitchers on the Phillies sans Halladay, so all the talk of the Phillies having four aces and the Mets having none is a little silly.  The biggest question regarding Dickey is if last season was a one time deal.  Sandy Alderson doesn’t think so, and he gave Dickey a two year contract to prove it, and I don’t think so either.  It’s non unheard of for pitchers that utilize the knuckleball to suddenly find success later in their careers as Dickey has done.  Dickey has proven to be a very intelligent pitcher and really understands what’s going on on the mound.  He throws two knuckleballs and is able to change speeds with it.  His fastball isn’t even completely washed up, so when he does throw one, it reaches the mid 80s in velocity and doesn’t need just trickery to get past the hitter.  He was able to sustain success throughout the entire season last year, including multiple appearances against the same teams.  Also, his walk rate was surprisingly low for a knucklerballer.  Pitching to a 2.84 ERA might be a bit lofty, but he was also victimized by poor run support.  Perhaps a more potent offense gets the Mets more wins even if Dickey’s ERA rises slightly.

Jonathan Niese

Age W L ERA G CG IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
23 9 10 4.20 30 2 173.2 192 97 81 20 62 148 9 93 1.463 10.0 1.0 3.2 7.7 2.39
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Jonathan Niese is entering his second full season with the Mets, after a surprisingly good rookie year.  He hit a wall late in September, something he vows not to do in 2011.  He threw two complete games, and had a very nice 7.7 K/9 rate.  He really showed good command with his curveball, something you know no opponents are looking forward to facing.  I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect some improvement from Niese as he’s still a young pitcher learning and adjusting.  You’d like to see him give up a few less hits and walks overall, while utilizing his pitches to get more strikeouts.  He got 148 last year, and with a little improvement through a full season, he’s a guy that could reach 200.

Chris Young

Year Tm W L ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
7 Seasons 48 34 3.80 109 1.209 7.4 1.1 3.5 7.8 2.21

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Chris Young has been injured a lot, but as you can see from his career line he’s a pretty good pitcher when he’s healthy.  The key is making sure he stays healthy, and can give the Mets numbers approximating his career line.  All indications out of Spring  Training are that he is healthy and pitching well.  If that means strengthening the pen so you don’t over-stress Young’s arm, or occasionally giving him extra rest, then the Mets should do it.  Young starts to make this rotation look pretty deep, and while he’s not going to overwhelm or blow anybody away, he gets the job done and induces a lot of weak contact.   Other options loom the longer we can keep him healthy, even if he doesn’t make it all season.  Johan Santana could return, Dillon Gee or another prospect or Buffalo starter could be throwing the ball really well and deserve a promotion.

Chris Capuano

Year W L ERA IP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Awards
6 Seasons 46 52 4.35 777.2 101 1.357 9.2 1.3 3.0 7.4 2.45
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Chris Capuano is not quite as impressive as Chris Young, but he’s got the benefit of having pitched enough last year to be over the “Is he healthy?” hump.  If he does make the rotation I’m happy with his ability to contribute to winning games, and I’d certainly take a healthy Capuano over most of the 5th best starters other teams are using.  In 66 innings last year, in the bullpen and the rotation, Capuano’s numbers were right around his career norms.  I’m hopeful with those 66 innings under his ‘new’ belt that he can get comfortable and have a quality year.   He’s healthy now, and maybe the lack of pitching of the last couple of years will actually mean his arm is fully healed and hasn’t been worn down by season after season of pitching strain.   Despite Chris Young probably being a better pitcher, I’m more confident that Capuano can stay on the field all season and win games for the New York Mets.

 

Injuries  and Depth

I’m not going to pretend that the Mets have a ton of depth to replace these guys if things go wrong.  Certainly if the Mets rotation misses more than a handful of starts here and there, there could be problems.  Pat Misch could be an emergency starter, but he’s league average at best.  Maybe Dillon Gee or another minor league prospect can come up and contribute if they’re forced into it, and maybe someone emerges later in the season if someone gets hurt.  There will be at least five starters in Buffalo, and presumably someone will warrant promotion at some point.

 

Then there is Johan Santana.  You would have to to think removing Santana from the rotation and adding Chris Capuano would be a net loss of games for the Mets, but it’s never as clear cut as that.  Actually, the Mets lost a lot of Santana’s games last year by scoring no runs when he gave up merely one.  If the Mets are hitting, couldn’t they win more games than that even if Capuano gives up three?  It’s perhaps unrealistic to expect Santana, coming off a anterior capsule tear, to contribute anything this year, but it’s not wrong to hope and wonder if he can return around the All-Star break and get stronger as the season reaches it’s conclusion.  All baseball seasons are full of uncertainty and risk, and while it’s certainly a risk that one of the Mets pitchers could injure themselves and hurt the Mets chances, there’s also the possibility that Santana returns and contributes down the stretch.

 

So as it stands right now, the Mets rotation looks pretty solid from top to bottom and is full of pitchers with talent and ability. They should keep the Mets in the game, and create opportunities for them to win those games with some offense.  The diversity of the staff plays into things as well; You’ve got a knuckleball, a curveball, a sinkerball, and two control pitchers.  That’s a lot of prep work for opposing lineups to do to try to keep on top of all the different looks they’ll see when they face the Mets.

https://picasaweb.google.com/115206422599450453015/319NatsAtMets#5586007174901737954
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Spring Training Voyage

 

I’m back from Spring Training, and it’s all too soon. I was having a lot of fun poking around Port St. Lucie and Digital Domain Park.  I took 500 pictures over three days, and captured images of many of our favorite, and less favorite, Mets players.  I watched road, home, and minor league games and saw players from the low minors to the cream of the crop doing all different kinds of baseball drills.  I met Amber Coyle, and Matthew Rose of NL East Chatter and The Real Dirty Mets Blog.

First, check out these two posts I put up last week involving Mets eating dinner and pictures from the St. Patrick’s Day game against the Red Sox and then click below to view more pictures.