Posted on

What NOT To Watch in Port St. Lucie

Yesterday I mentioned a couple of things to watch for in Spring Training. Today I’ll run through a couple of things that aren’t worth paying much attention to.

Statistics
The results don’t matter.  This goes double for guys with guaranteed spots and pitchers.  Pitchers tend to experiment with different things like pitch selection, grip, or even a new pitch.  They may stand on a different part of the rubber or pitch from the stretch with no one on just for practice.  Being that the games don’t matter, they’re able to tinker without affecting the standings. An example of this is last spring Mike Pelfrey said “I threw all split-finger fastballs one inning.”  This is not something that he would do in a game situation.

The numbers for the guys competing for spots may matter a bit more, but the entire experience is an evaluation and a showcase.  It’s more than who strikes out the most batters or who hits the most home runs.  It could be about any number of things and often managers and general managers may go on feel.  They could be looking at how hard a guy hits the ball, even for outs, or looking to see if he’s laying off bad pitches that were causing too many strikeouts in years past. Spring Training is almost always a small sample size subject to a lot of variation.  AAA players, pitchers working on things, defenders playing a position for the first time, pitchers experimenting with new grips and new deliveries and pitches all create a game that’s not quite the same as the regular season.   Often decisions need to be made on less measurable things like work ethic, bat speed, or getting good reads on fly balls.

Reports On Physical Condition
Inevitably someone in camp is in the best shape of their lives, while others packed on some pounds.  This information is beyond useless beyond making fun of the fat guy on a rival team’s roster.  It’s still six weeks to Opening Day and everyone is well into a regimented workout program by then that makes what they ate in the offseason while they were essentially on vacation worthless. No one criticizes you when you have a second helping of pulled pork and another cocktail when you’re on vacation, so lay off the players.

Game Scores and Records
For every example of a team that dominated Spring Training that did well in the regular season there is a team that did horrible in Spring Training and still did well in the regular season.  None of it matters.  Guys are just putting in their work.  It’s a rotating cast of characters parading through the game and half of them won’t even make the team.  Sometimes they tie. Sometimes they play a 10th inning for fun and sometimes the manager pinch hits an unseasoned AA rookie for his superstar in the bottom of the 9th just because he wants to see if he can hit the lefty on the mound.  The same goes for lineups early on.  Sometimes stars bat higher up in the order so they can get their two or three at-bats in earlier in the game and get off the field.  You may bat a pitcher third because you want him to practice a bunt or move a player to lead off to challenge him to take more pitches.

Spring Training is a lot of fun, but it’s still an exhibition for the real thing.  There are a lot of interesting things to watch, but there are plenty of things that aren’t worth worrying about either.

Posted on

What To Watch For In Mets Spring Training Camp

All teams have a variety of different roster spots open for the taking in Spring Training.  So what should we be watching in Port St. Lucie with the Mets?  (And if you’re watching on SNY, the games will be in HD this year!)

Tiki Hut at Digital Domain Park

Health
Keeping players healthy is definitely number one. This includes building up arm strength and recovering from an injury that ended last season, or simply not getting hurt.  Jason Bay, Francisco Rodriguez and Daniel Murphy ended up the season on the disabled list. The primary goal from them is to get to Opening Day without experiencing any pain or lingering effects of what ailed them last year.  Bay and Rodriguez have both been reported healthy and pain free, but it’ll be good to show that in real spring training games.  Daniel Murphy has had some knee issues, and the best shot he has at winning a job this season is to not be hampered by lingering pain that prevents him from putting in the work both at second base, and at the plate, that he needs.

Some guys have been injured frequently, to various degrees, and may be at risk again.  Chris Young, Chris Capuano, Carlos Beltran are three of the most recent cases.  Beltran has mainly been dealing with one issue, a lack of cartilage in his knee, and may have that under control via an understanding of what ails him, and a knee brace that keeps his knee bones from bruising further.  Beltran’s goal this spring is to prove the brace hasn’t reduced his range significantly in center field, and to get the reps at the plate he needs to keep up to speed without needlessly stressing his knee in exhibition games.

Young and Capuano have more to prove if they want to earn a spot on this team and continue contributing for the entire season.  Consistent starts this spring with no reports of pain or soreness would go a long way to giving us confidence that can give us some quality innings.

Jose Reyes often gets mentioned in the injury discussion, but really he was healthy for most of 2011.  He had a medical condition that had him almost literally rolling out of bed and into the field in April, and had a slight oblique strain mid-season that was so poorly managed by the Mets and their manager that it probably cost him twice as many games as it needed to.  Players get nicked u, and an oblique strain isn’t something to worry about.  Given these parameters, it seems like 2010 is the absolute floor of what we can expect out of Reyes for any given season, and given a full spring worth of preparation it’s not unfair to expect him to be much better again.

The Stars
The results may not matter, but it’s still fun to watch some of the best in the game play.  The Mets have a nice core of excellent players.  David Wright and Jason Bay can launch home runs and bash the ball all over the place.  Jose Reyes can run wild and be his energetic, fun to watch self.  Carlos Beltran may go back to making difficult defensive plays look easy while blasting home runs.

While maybe not on the same level, yet, many other players that have jobs secured are fun to watch.  Ike Davis has some great power and is maturing as a hitter.  R.A. Dickey is an amazing guy and watching him taunt hitters with the knuckleball is always fun.  Jon Niese progressing with his devastating curveball or Bobby Parnell blowing guys away with his occasionally triple digit fastball will make highlights reels all spring long.

Rounding Out the Roster
Which guys will make the team seemingly out of nowhere?  Who will have a monster spring and launch themselves into the conversation for 5th starter, or long reliever, or first pinch hitter off the bench?  A lot of the bullpen is open for guys looking to have a strong showing.  Beyond second base that has a couple of favorites, but is an open competition, there are a couple of different ways the Mets could fill out the extra bench spots.  Could it be Nick Evans? Or Scott Hairston?  What about Jason Pridie or Justin Turner?

The Future
What’s more exciting than seeing what may be on tap for the years to come? Jenrry Mejia make a lot of noise last spring, enough that he mistakenly got a roster spot in the bullpen.  He’ll be exciting to watch this year to see how’s he progressed and if he’s someone we can look forward to in the future.  You’ve got some possible outfielders that look exciting, like Lucas Duda or Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

The Broadcast
Besides the games finally being in high definition, Gary, Keith, Ron, and Kevin are a joy to listen to do a game.  Just like Spring Training is a little more lax than the regular season, so are the broadcasts.  Obviously most of us don’t have the opportunity to listen to them live, because most games are on at 1pm, but if you do get a chance it’s well worth it.

To follow Ceetar on Twitter, click here.

Posted on

You Can ALWAYS Put a Negative Spin on Mets News

Some sports writers and bloggers can’t help but recycle the same stories over and over again, merely inserting different information to reach the same conclusion.  A free agent someone deems worthy is passed over, therefore the Mets will not spend money.  Someone on the team tweaks a muscle, and the medical staff is inept.  The players have a bad game and suddenly they’re unfocused and uncaring.  So it should come as no surprise when someone out there twists the Jason Isringhausen signing to meet a common plot point: The Mets are desperate to cut payroll for 2012 and will do anything to get out of K-Rod’s contract.  It’s possible that by the time I publish this it’ll already have been written. It’ll probably be something like this:

“Yesterday the Mets signed former closer Jason Isringhausen.  Like most of Sandy Alderson’s moves this offseason, Isringhausen came cheap and no one else wanted him.  The Mets are hoping to catch a little lightening in a bottle with the former generation K pitcher.  With financial ruin looming, the Mets need to cut payroll for 2012 and Francisco Rodriguez’s 17.5 million dollar vesting option is looking expensive.  It’s in the Wilpon’s interests to find ways to keep K-Rod from closing 55 games in 2011, and the players association may have a problem if they were to just bench him, or share closer duties with the unproven Bobby Parnell.  With the Isringhausen signing, the Mets have another legitimate closer to try to take away some saves from Rodriguez.”

This is most certainly not how the Isringhausen signing went.  He had a relationship with J. P. Ricciardi from their Oakland days, and Isringhausen requested a try out to try and make the team.  He got a minor league deal with an invitation to major league camp, which is hardly a guarantee of anything more than a couple of innings of work at best.

Posted on

Is It Time For a New Generation of Mets?

As I sit here wondering if the Mets will extend Reyes’ contract, and how I hope David Wright and Jose Reyes spend their long successful careers only with the Mets, I started thinking the bridge between different Mets generations.  In my eye, generations are roughly defined by the ‘core’ or the handful of top players on a team that stay together for a couple of years.  You had Mike Piazza, Edgardo Alfonzo and John Franco leading us into David Wright,Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran.  There was an overlap, or bridge, between these two generations as some of them played together.  One midseason story line was even when Wright would, or should, move ahead of Piazza in the batting order.  What if the bridge between generations was not so obvious?
We are Mets fans because we love the Mets.  We love the Mets because we are Mets fans.  It’s emotional, fanatical, and probably illogical, but it’s what we do.   We have an emotional connection to the team, and to the players.  We all know that you “root for the laundry” and that it doesn’t matter who is wearing the uniform because if it says “Mets” on it, we want them to succeed.

There is talk out there about breaki

ng up the Mets core: If the Mets haven’t won with Wright and Reyes, maybe they are part of the problem and not the solution.  How would the fanbase, the one that includes the millions of fans not on Twitter or in the blogosphere, react to the Mets rebuilding?  Would fans actually be excited for a team that had Tejada at shortstop, Zach Lutz at third, an outfield of Lucas Duda, Fernando Martinez and Kirk Nieuwenhuis with a rotation led by Niese, Gee and Meija? Especially if it took that group 2-3 years to really start to show any talent, if they do at all.  Perhaps Mets fans are too used to a group of players getting only one or two shots at the postseason and now mentally preparing for the next groups opportunity.  

Fans may enjoy a prospect or two, especially one that’s doing well, but watching a group of players lose consistently while going through the growing pains of trying to be a great major league baseball player is not what sells or excites fans.  Half of those guys probably won’t stick around long term in the big leagues, certainly not with the Mets, and they’ll make mistakes and boneheaded plays and go through slumps that will not enamor them to fans.  We love the team, but rooting for lovable losers is not what being a Mets fan is about.  For every fan that loved Ty Wigginton while he

was a Met there are a hundred or more that love Benny Agbayani because he was a part of a run of success.  Rustyjr of The Real Dirty Mets Blog asked for reader submissions of their top 50 Mets of all time, and has been counting down the tabulated results.  If you’re paying attention you’ll notice that the list hardly follows any statistical reasoning.  Ray Knight comes in at #37 for example despite his numbers across a mere 254 games with the Mets not being anything amazing.  Perhaps his baseball-reference sponsor has some insight:

“What a worthy ’86 Series MVP! He embodied those championship Mets. Who can forget his fire, his jubilation scoring the winning run on Buckner’s error?”

We cling the players that come through for us in big moments.  Endy Chavez made an unbelievable catch in a key moment of the biggest Mets game of the last decade.  For his Mets career he was at best a serviceable 4th outfielder and an amazing defensive replacement, which aren’t usually the guys that go down in history and get remembered.  Endy’s catch is immortalized in the left field gate at Citi Field and in the fan walk outside, and it’s one of the few parts of the building that has never been criticized by fans.  We form bonds and connections with these guys, and while winning makes them all look nicer, sometimes it’s just the emotion and effort of one player or series that makes us love them.  Endy’s catch was in a losing effort and Robin Ventura’s memorable Grand Slam Single was the last win the Mets would get in that series.


Would fans really pay to see a team of prospects?  My guess is no.  If the Mets fail to put a winning team on the field again in 2011, it won’t draw any more fans in August and September if they trade off every piece they can at the trading deadline.  While the removal of players that we have a negative association with may sound like a good idea, It doesn’t actually create more interest in watching that players replacement.  Sure there might be a boost in attendance if a fire-balling starter is doing well, or some rookie outfielder is smashing home runs all over the place, but those things will be passing novelties as most Mets fans find entertainment elsewhere that season.  Some cit the early 90s as some of the worse Mets seasons in history.  The ‘86ers retired, moved on, got into trouble and were no longer Mets. There were a couple of flashy prospects here and there that didn’t really pan out.  There was some brief excitement with Generation K, which shows us that a philosophy of “We might be pretty good in a couple of years!” is not a selling point.  There was no clear bridge to the next eneration and a lot of Mets fans in the 90s noticed that there _was_ still winning baseball in New York.  I wonder what the younger Mets fans that are in love with Wright and Reyes would do if they were no longer Mets in the next year or two?

Posted on

Is Rex Ryan Jose Reyes’ new best friend?

Rex Ryan has taken the Jets, and Jets fans, for a ride these last two years.  He does things differently than most sports leaders, particularly in the NFL. He’s emotional and brash.  He tries to tell it like it is and portrays extreme confidence.  He’s not afraid of a little trash talk.  His players seem to love him, and Jets fans do as well.

Now that football season is mercifully over and we turn our attention back to baseball I can’t help but wonder how this will affect Jose Reyes.  Reyes is one of those players that has been criticized by some for being too playful, for celebrating too much, or for his cheery dances after home runs. The guy’s really just enjoying playing baseball, and it’s part of what makes him an energetic and enthusiastic leadoff hitter but some criticize anyway.  I wonder if watching Rex Ryan these last couple of years will lessen any of the ill will towards Reyes.

Some of the media will criticize, especially since criticizing the Mets is popular in the media these days.  Talk radio hosts will still bring up the topic just like they bring up Ryan’s antics.  Even Jets supporter Michael Kay was critical of the way Ryan was talking about Tom Brady and he has no love for the Mets.  It does seem to matter less to the fans than the media, and even non-Jets fans may be more tired and annoyed at the endless discussion of this off the field stuff than the actual team itself.  Reyes will still get his share of criticism.  If he slumps, reporters will point to his dancing, or blame his clapping when he hits a double.  They’ll talk about how he’s playing for a contract, if he’s not extended in Spring Training like I expect, and should grow up and act mature.  Reyes will be the longest tenured Met and many will demand that he step up and act differently.

Reyes will always be Reyes.  Carlos Beltran once sat him down in Spring Training, when he was getting concerned that he should be listening to these analysts and acting differently, and told him to be himself.  Reyes is one of the hardest working players on the team, and his enthusiasm and energy is an asset, not a problem.  As long as he prepares himself for each game, and plays to the best of his extensive abilities Reyes can dance after home runs, or cheer when he gets a hit.

Rex Ryan has shown us that there isn’t one way to act; that there isn’t a specific formula or schema required to be successful in professional sports.  The best that anyone can do is try their hardest, and be themselves.  Hopefully Rex Ryan’s two seasons in New York will remind Mets fans that a little bit of enthusiasm and bravado is not a bad thing.

Posted on

Could The Madoff Situation Actually Help Alderson?

This post is it.  I’ll comment once with my thoughts about this Sterling Equities news, and then I’m going back to desperately counting the seconds until pitchers and catchers report. (1,173,300 seconds until it’s 2/15, as of this post)

Did the recent Sterling Equities news regarding the Wilpons looking to possibly sell part of the team actually help Sandy Alderson do his job?  The news may help Alderson lowball other teams on money-related transactions more so than he might otherwise be able to do.  While he’s not going to get players for free that other teams don’t really want to move, if a team is looking to make a deal with the Mets, they might subconsciously be expecting less in return.

Reporters have gone wild with speculation about what this means, that the Wilpons will sell, and that they won’t be able to spend any money.  Some predict Reyes traded by the trading deadline as a result, although some predicted this anyway.  Buster Olney, who’s actual post is behind a paywall, suggests some rival executives are all but positive Reyes gets traded because they can’t afford to keep him.  This suggests two things to me: 1. I’ve never been a fan of Olney anyway, but in the age of blogs and Twitter if what you’re writing is behind a paywall there is a pretty good chance it’s not worth reading.  2. The Mets are best off extending Reyes in Spring Training because even if they wanted to trade him in some crazy scenario, the rumors that they have to hurts their negotiating position.

I don’t expect this news to amount to anything more than another name on the media guide list of owners, but it’s certainly possible this is the start of a slippery slope to a scenario that includes the Wilpons having to sell off the entire team.  The initial info seems to suggest that the news is more of a guardrail against that slippery slope than the first tumble, but many of the details are still hidden and most are above my head in terms of financial understanding.  What will be, will be.  The roster is mostly set.  The Mets will play baseball in 2011, and I’ll be able to go there and root for them and cheer for them.  That’s pretty much 99.6% of my concern as it relates to who actually owns the Mets.

Still, perception is meaningful.  The team may very well be projected to not even afford the letters on their uniform backs at this rate. (One might suggest they stick to only two different uniforms in that case and remove the names altogether)  Sandy Alderson may be able to use the perception of constraint when dealing with free agents, and with other teams when the trade involves money or paying contracts, to his advantage.  Maybe Alderson finds a suiter for Oliver Perez, and instead of paying 11 million of his contract, he uses the Madoff situation to suggest the Mets only pay 10.5.  Maybe Jose Reyes really does want to stay here, and Alderson milks his loyalty by getting him to sign for less under the guise of needing that money to buy competitive players around him.

This is probably still a stretch.  The 2011 roster and budget are nearly financially complete, and the Mets won’t likely be looking to spend a lot of money before the All-Star break.  At that point, the potential financial windfall of being successful in September and making the playoffs almost always offsets the initial cost of bringing the last two months of an expensive players contract.  Sandy Alderson told me that he’d have no constraints at that point, and I hope that remains true.  It’ll be interesting to see how Alderson conducts business going further; if crying poor helps him negotiate, or if he dispels rumors by actually spending money on Reyes, or on mid-season acquisitions.

Posted on

Waiting For Baseball

Just my silly little attempt to take a picture that represents “Waiting For Baseball.”  Been playing around with my camera more lately; maybe I’ll take some interesting pictures down in Spring Training. My first set of tickets arrived yesterday.

Posted on

The 4th Captain of the New York Mets

Last year I wrote that Wright was, and should be, the captain of the New York Mets. I still believe this, and maybe now more than ever.  In a way the Mets have put all their cards on the table here; they’ve hired some of the brightest people to reboot most of the management team.  Sandy Alderson has talked about having limited flexibility this offseason, but if the current crop of talent can’t show us some success, he’ll have no qualms about using the flexibility of 2012 to find players who can.  It’s imperative that the players work together to the best of their abilities.

Being a leader is more than being the best player on the team, or the “face of the franchise.”  None of us will ever truly know how Wright acts when it’s just players with no media or fans around.  What we do know is that he’s always willing to own up to mistakes, always willing to answer a hard question.  He’s fiercely competitive, and doesn’t accept anything less than total effort.  He openly cheers and roots for his teammates, and is always looking for ways to get better.  He’ll wait on the field to reward a good fielding play by an outfielder, or he’ll go to the mound if he feels the pitcher needs a moment.  If he gets picked off, he doesn’t sulk but opens a dialogue about what prompted him to take the big lead, and what he’s going to do next time.

Naming Wright captain would have other benefits as well.  If some are worried that Terry Collins may be too fiery, installing the calmer Wright as an intermediary would help buffer some of that fire.  Wright would have the authority to direct his players.  If he feels they should come early to take extra batting practice, guys are going to show up for him.  He’s already shown his ability at team-bonding; he orchestrated team haircuts, and the attempted no-shave until .500 quest of 2009.  This is mostly silliness and might not mean anything at all, but Wright’s clearly at the core of this team.

Even if it doesn’t mean anything, Wright as captain would also be beneficial from a marketing stand point.  The vast majority of Mets fans love David Wright, and naming him officially captain would only heighten the lore.  You could sell more gear with a big ‘C’ on it. Newspaper writers would have a field day with dueling images of Wright and Jeter during Subway Series weeks.  Clearly his team likes and supports him, so I see no downside to this title. You don’t name a leader AFTER you win a war, you name him to lead you to victory.  The Mets would benefit from  a unified core with a strong leader as they march into the fierce battle that is the 2011 season.

Read/listen to On The Black’s  take on the subject.

Posted on

K-Rod’s Option “Problem”

I know all these stories have been talked about and re-talked about since it’s the off-season and there is very little going on, but bare with me as I talk about this one some more.

People act like Francisco Rodriguez’s option year for 2012 vesting would be disastrous. He makes 11.5 million next year and that jumps to 17.5 million if he finishes 55 games, which he usually does. That’s a six million dollar raise, Although if it doesn’t vest they owe him 3.5 million to buy it out. It’s not really that bad. Omar knew that a lot of money was coming off in 2012, and the philosophy is that good teams have good closers. Since K-Rod is one of the best, and remains one of the best (i.e. finishing games, staying healthy, and the option vesting), the Mets would be best served to keep him. The raise is a lot, and I’m not sure how that went down in negotiations or why it need to be so much more than the base contract, but if the option vests it means he’s contributing to the success of this team.

The Mets problems in the past couple of years have not been spending too much money, but spending too much money on guys who have not contributed. The Mets have not been playing with a $140 million dollar payroll team the last couple of years. If the Mets have guys on the field, like Francisco Rodriguez, who are performing and contributing, then the amount of money they’re being paid becomes less important. Sure he’s making more money than he’s theoretically worth, but he is adding value. There is no guarentee that the players you sign to replace him with that 17.5 (really 14 because of the buyout) million dollars would win you more games. Especially as it’s a one year thing, and the Mets reportedly will have plenty of money to spend next year without that 14 million and an extra hole to fill. Do you want to take the gamble that the money saved by the option not vesting is will help create a more successful team in 2012? It’s certainly possible, but sometimes the saying “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” is apt.

Using games started and games finished as vesting options has always annoyed me. You’re not allowed to vest options based on statistical performance, and this seems to be skirting that line. Games on the active roster, or “games healthy” would make more sense. Both games started and games finished have the possibility of the team manipulating things so that options don’t vest. So do games appeared, as Alex Cora found out last year. Games finished is even more linked to performance, because a closer being bad at home actively alters the number of games he finishes.

There is no real need to speculate on ways to get around the option though. Francisco Rodriguez will either be healthy and successful and closing out a lot of games for a reasonably successful club, or the team will wallow in mediocrity and not get that many chances. The Mets offense seems poised to score a lot of runs though, so if the bullpen can hold leads, there may be less save situations. If Terry Collins chooses not to use Rodriguez in four run save situations or get him work for the sake of work, then that could keep the games finished number down. If the Mets are competing in August and September then not only will the Mets need and want him closing games, cost be damned, but the added attendance boost and revenue from being competitive will more than pay that raise for 2012. The thing the Mets can do to create the most money and financial flexibility is to win, not to look for ways around options or to avoid pricey contracts.