You can root for the Mets without being convinced of their doom
Last night was an amazing experience; The New York Mets invited me, and a score or so other bloggers, to Citi Field, gave us field passes to watch batting practice from the warning track in front of the dugout, excellent tickets to the game, the chance to talk to players, and even a $10 gift card.
Maybe Adam Wainwright is the perfect pitcher for the Mets to face tonight. It’s the perfect matchup of “Something’s got to give”. The Mets haven’t scored in ages, and Wainwright hasn’t given up any runs in ages. It’s mathematically improbable for both of these to continue for another nine innings, and that should bode well for the Mets. Maybe they rise to occasion of fighting a top pitcher, start scoring some runs, and give Johan Santana some help in the July Pitcher of the Month competition.
If we’re getting poetic about it, I’m going to predict that the deciding runs of this game are scored via a grand slam home run by Carlos Beltran off of an Adam Wainwright curveball.
Could this be the final test for the Mets?
I hope it’s not, but if they fail it may mean the figurative end to their season. The next two weeks are very critical, and the first order of business is just flat out winning games. The Mets have played very well at home this year, and they’ve got three games against the tough Cardinals, and then three against the not so tough Diamondbacks. There can be no excuses: They have to win games. Omar’s job, provided he still has one, is to bring in reinforcements after that. The trading deadline is next weekend, and the Mets are in need of some help. No longer can they play waiting games or decide they don’t like the price. When you drop as many games in the standings as the Mets did, you no longer have the luxury of pretending you’re not desperate for help.
After the Diamondbacks the Mets again head on the road. It’s this road trip that could prove to be critical, as they face the Braves and the Phillies. The Braves have been amazing lately, and the Mets have been making just about every other ballpark look to them like Turner Field did around the turn of the century. By falling so far back, it’s become imperative that they make up ground by beating the competition in front of them. Losing and falling further behind could very well be a death blow.
The Mets have been extremely streaky this year and they really are much better than they’ve shown lately. If they take that streak and turn it into a hot stretch where they’re again a team that’s tough to beat, they could climb right back into this race. There is still a lot of baseball to be played and August could be a good month for them. After they play the division rivals on the road, they come home for the Rockies and the Phillies before going on a road trip that one would describe similarly to the Cleveland-Baltimore trip they took that they were successful on: they play the Astros and the Pirates. Another home stretch with the Marlins and the Astros provides plenty of time to fight their way back into this race before facing the Braves again at the end of the month.
Can the Mets ace this next test and fight their way back into relevancy again? I don’t know. Neither answer would surprise me, but I’m certain they’re capable of it. They often say you need to get hot at the right time and if the Mets can capitalize on that by beating up on the division rivals, as the Phillies did in 2007, they can certainly win this division.
Isn’t this changeup, by definition, not a changeup?
And that seems to be the crux of the problem with Oliver Perez. How is gameday classifying that pitch as a changeup? I understand Oliver Perez mostly sucks this year. It seems like pitch selections like this is the main reason, and I don’t see how they didn’t have him working on this while he was in rehab, or how they promoted him again without fixing it.
I’m no Pitch F/X expert, but I know that Perez should be throwing this pitch slower. He throws his fastball around 88-89, which you hope would build up over time, but regardless, you have to throw the changeup no higher than 80mph if this is the case. He does have a slider that’s in the 70s for the offspeed part of his game, but he’s stopped throwing the curve entirely this year.
Oliver’s biggest problem does not seem to be his velocity, although you would like that to be higher. His mechanics have never been good, which accounts for a lot of fluctuation at times in his pitches and may be the cause of that missing 2mph on his fastball. Still, the biggest issue here seems to be pitch selection and game plan. We know he’s billed as a head case, but I’m sure those accounts are exaggerated. What he should’ve been working on is selecting his pitches better and setting up hitters. If he’s capable of throwing so many pitches, slider, curveball, fastball, 4-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter, he’s capable of setting up hitters to look foolish. He’s got enough command of those pitches that he can keep batters from sitting on the 88mph fastball.
It’s not enough to just say he’s a lost cause and dismiss him. You can’t excuse Dan Warthen or Rod Barajas because Ollie’s a head case. He’s had success before, and coaching/selection is their job. How is Oliver Perez still doing things like throwing a fastball and changeup at the same speed to the same batter? Am I missing something? If you’ve got some advanced knowledge of pitching/pitches that you can share, please pass it along. I find it hard to believe that gameday/fangraphs is just guessing at what pitches he’s throwing or that he’s throwing them by accident.
Today will be non-stop “The Mets have no grit” type discussions. The people that don’t pay attention and think Beltran is soft will come out of the woodwork. The clubhouse divide comments will come back. (Michael Kay actually took care of that already today, thanks..) Overly dramatic, pessimistic Mets fans will be all over these things. There is usually Yankees praise involved. I can pretty much predict Joe Benigno’s show from 2-6:30 on WFAN tomorrow.
“Write it down, the Yankees are going to go out and get Roy Oswalt. After seeing Hughes take a step back last night, and Pettitte on the DL, there is no way, NO WAY bro, that the Yankees don’t get this guy. And what will the Mets do? Nothing. What a pathetic game last night. I don’t care what the numbers say, Beltran needs to sit down until he’s up to speed. They made a mistake bringing this guy back so fast. I know Francoeur isn’t hitting but he’s too valuable as a leader to mess with the chemistry. And no one else is hitting anyway! At least Francoeur you know you’re getting good defense out there. I really think the Mets made a mistake bringing Castillo and Oliver Perez, and don’t get me started on this bum who should be pitching for Japan right now or something. All we heard about was how good the chemistry was on this team and then you throw these malcontents back into the mix and look what happens! And what is Omar doing? Will you make a trade Omar? What are you waiting for?!”
The Mets have not been playing good baseball lately. This poor play brings up debate and questions about what exactly the problems are. Is it an easy fix? Something that takes time, money, or trade?
Could it be the managing?
Maybe. Jerry Manuel is not a good manager. He’s operating as a lame-duck manager and as Steve Popper remarked today, A manager that everyone in the clubhouse suspects is not here for the long haul may lose a little authority in the dealing with long term situations such as standing up to Jose Reyes and being the final authority on if he is in the lineup. The flip side of this is the question of whether Manuel’s lack of authority in such situations is what led to his job security being as tenous as it is in the first place.
Manuel seems inept at managing road games or close games, often burning outs with useless bunts, refusing to use his best pitchers on the road or burning through the bullpen at record pace. Still, the Mets have the talent and ability to win games, and if enough games are going to come down to the point where they are won or lost on a misguided bunt call in the third inning, the Mets probably won’t win enough games for it to matter.
Is it the offense?
Some fans are thinking so. Some seem to have given up on Beltran and Bay, and point out that the pitching has rarely kept the Mets out of games. Surely if players like Bay continue to underperform, the Mets will not win. However it’s probably safer to say Jason Bay will hit more like the 1000 games before he became a Met, than the 90 or so this year. Beltran has returned, one of the most talented players in the game, and while we’re still not sure what effect the brace and lingering bone bruises are going to have on his overall play it’s safe to say he’s a solid upgrade over Jeff Francoeur. Castillo will return soon and put up a respectable OBP that provides more run scoring opportunities. Reyes will be back in the lineup and allow us to send Tejada back to Buffalo for more seasoning. It’s easy to get worked up over slumps and scoring droughts, but the Mets offense overall is pretty good.
How about the pitching?
Behind Johan, one of the best second half pitchers ever, the Mets currently have Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey and Takahashi. Dickey has been wonderful, and Niese is contributing as well. Mike Pelfrey’s struggling with a little bit of a slump, but he’ll fight out of it and win games for the Mets in the second half. Takahashi has struggled, looking more suited for a long relief type role out of the bullpen. This would be the obvious place to upgrade on the team, and rumors are that Omar is indeed looking for something that won’t cost the farm, but I’m not convinced the pitching is keeping the Mets out of games. In fact they’ve been in most games, rarely getting blown out or finding themselves down six runs in the seventh inning. Takahashi has had some bad starts, but he’s also had some good ones. Johan even had a couple of bad starts in the first half.
Injuries.
The Mets injuries, coupled with some slumps, are what’s causing the recent struggles. Some of the other categories may be making it worse such as Jason Bay slumping or Takahashi having a poor outing, but overall it’s the injury to Luis Castillo forcing us to play lesser or unready players in Cora and Tejada. It’s Reyes slow recovery from the strained oblique. It’s Beltrans bone bruises keeping him out the entire first half. Ike Davis went through a typical rookie slump, but after two home runs last night may be coming out of it. You can’t get much worse than Rod Barajas lately, and he may be forcing Jerry’s hand in using Thole more, who has done nothing but hit while he’s been on the Mets.
It’s easy to overreact to slumps and scoring droughts, but the Mets have the talent to make the playoffs this year. There is a lot of time left, including plenty of games left against the division leading Braves. Destiny is in their own hands. Beltran is getting up to speed, Jose Reyes is supposedly just about recovered, and Luis Castillo is set to return by next weekend. Johan’s a second half pitcher, more help may be on the way, and Ike Davis may rebound from his first major slump a better player. The second half of the season is going to be very exciting, and I can’t wait.
Huge three game series for the Mets coming up here, but most of it’s about perception and confidence. No three games in July ever decide anything, but winning and losing this series is the difference between being within striking distance of the division lead going into the break, and being clearly the second-best team.
If the Mets win this series they will be respected throughout the league as contenders. They’ll be brought up in all trade talks for big acquisitions. When analysts adjust their season predictions, the Mets will make it onto a lot of their lists. David Wright will again be recognized as one of the best players in the game, people will stop taking as many pot shots at the Mets, their minor league system, their medical staff and their decision making.
If they lose and fall four or more games back from the division lead things won’t be as rosy during the break. Analysts will find a way to justify their decision in the winter that the Mets have too many holes to make the playoffs. They’ll talk up Bobby Cox, they’ll talk about the Phillies having a good second half. Jose Reyes will be described as injury prone. Carlos Beltran will be portrayed as an 80 year old grandma that can’t walk, much less play CF. They’ll question Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya and their ability to do their job.
All off the results of one series. If a sweep happens either way, the reactions will be even more extreme.
The series is really not that big a deal. It’s an important series to try to win and not let the Braves get too far ahead, but even if they’re four games out going into the break, that’s hardly insurmountable given how many games they still play against each other. Still, it’s a chance for the Mets to put the first half to rest on a positive note, take a deep breath, and soar into the second half with the addition of Carlos Beltran.
If you’re headed out to Citi Field for any of these games, the Mets are having a fan appreciation weekend. They’re doing a lot of seat upgrades, signed giveaways, and handing out gift cards. On Sunday 25 lucky fans will receive game-worn jerseys. Enjoy!
Yesterday at the Mets game the home plate umpire ruled a pitch by Pelfrey to have been a caught foul tip and an out. Scott Rolen argued that it hit him (even if he didn’t know where), and Dusty Baker, the Reds Manager, came out an argued as well. The umpires then conferred and subsequently overruled the call.
Is this really any different than an NFL coach throwing a challenge flag? It does have a lot of similiarities, butthe game last night lacked one big part of what the NFL does: They didn’t go look at video replays. Some of the very valid arguments against instant replay, and ones I agree with, are with delay of game issues and freezing action on the game to correct the call. There are a lot of things that would need to be worked out to get any sort of instant replay to be effective and accepted.
All of those problems were still evident last night, but without the benefit of technology to verify that the call was correct. We got all of the drawbacks without any of the benefit. Umpires either need to stand by the calls as they are made, with the possible exception of a different umpire being 100% certain that the call was wrong because the original umpire that made the call was blocked or didn’t see it, or use instant replay to get it correct. Standing around and discussing it and guessing at what happened is not benefiting anyone.
I enjoy listening to Howie Rose and Wayne Hagin on the radio during Mets games occasionally. I think they both do a good job, and occasionally you get some amusing sound bytes. This one’s a little bit of an “inside joke” that you’ll probably only get If you’ve lived in Long Island, but it does speak to Howie’s roots and got a laugh out of me at least.
“Popped high in the air, foul, over by the first base railing. Long run for Uggla. He changes at Jamaica, gets to the railing, and the ball falls beyond his reach. He covered a whole lot of territory. “
This Mets team can be pretty scary. I certainly thought they had a chance to be very competitive coming into this year, but it would’ve been hard for anyone to predict it would evolve the way it did. The team may be the team you’d least want to face in the National League, because you never know what you’re going to get from them, they can hit you from all angles. People talk about Philadelphia’s offense being scary, but when you get down to it the Phillies are a team built on offense; if you pitch well against them you can win any of the games.
The Mets can baffle a team’s offense on any day. It could happen via R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball dancing towards the plate, or it could happen with Pelfrey’s dominate sinking fastball. The next day Jon Niese could unleash his curveball, or Johan Santana could be on the mound with his two Cy Young awards. The bullpen has also been very good, regularly racking up scoreless innings. They’ve got some hard throwers, some specialists, and Frankie Rodriguez.
Offensively the Mets have the talent to beat a team in a couple of ways. They’re capable of hitting big home runs one day, and the next day battering pitching to a tune of 14 runs without a long ball. They’re aggressive, steal bases, take extra bases on base hits, capitalize on errors and play hard. They’re capable of coming back from deficits, don’t quit until the game is over, and even if a starting pitcher is shutting them down, they’re capable of waking up against a reliever and winning a game.
They seem to have the right mixture of confidence and cockiness, and all reports suggest they have great clubhouse chemistry. (Winning will do that) Even if they don’t make a trade, it looks like they’ll be getting Carlos Beltran back to the lineup which would be about as big a mid-season acquisition as you can find. They’re already in prime playoff position, and they’ve got plenty of guys looking to have a better second half including Johan Santana, Jason Bay, Luis Castillo, and Jose Reyes. This is a team to look out for, and it’s looking like the final series before the All-Star break against the Braves is going to be a big one.