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5-1 against the Phillies and Yankees

Three games against the Phillies start tonight. It’s actually a big New York baseball week, as the Yankees are playing the Red Sox this week as well, and then they meet in the Bronx for the first Subway Series at the new Yankee Stadium. It’s actually a shame Delgado’s going to miss it. He had nine RBI at the place last year, and this year with the rate balls fly out of right field, I figured he’d be able to double his home run total for the year this weekend.

We’ll have to settle for Ryan Church and Daniel Murphy knocking a couple out. Fernando Martinez, if he doesn’t connect with one off the crappy Phillies pitching, will have a good shot there. But before the Mets get to the Bronx, they host the Phillies, who they are 3-1 against so far. Metsblog ran a poll, and the pessimists got their voice heard with 2-4 being the expected outcome over the next six, with 4-2 the runner up. Personally, I’m thinking 5-1. I know this is overly optimistic given the injuries, but I really think the Mets match up well against these two teams.

All four times they’ve faced the Phillies the Mets have looked liked the better team. Everyone knows that the Phillies strength is offense. Good pitching generally beats good hitting, and I’m confident in Santana, and in Pelfrey having a bounce back start. Pelfrey is also more of a ground ball pitcher, which should help against the power numbers of Philadelphia, as will Citi Field. The big question mark is Redding, who has had some good starts, and some bad ones. Supposedly he pitches pretty well against the Phillies, but I don’t know how much stock to take in that. Maybe pitching in Citi Field will help him. On the other hand, the Phillies aren’t good at pitching. The Mets have hit Happ well, have hit Hamels, and everyone seems to have hit Moyer this year. Their bullpen has been better, but it’s still not great and Lidge has looked awful.

It’s hard to predict a sweep, because anything can happen in baseball. I’d be shocked if the Phillies were to win this series. Then they’ve got a tough opponent in the Red Sox, who I don’t expect them to beat either.

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The Next Two Weeks

These are two big weeks coming up. I would like to see the Mets with a couple of games lead in the division by the time it’s over, even with the injuries. While the Mets play seven games against Pittsburgh and the Nationals, the Phillies play the Padres who have been good again, and then four against the Dodgers. The Braves also have a tough stretch, against the Cubs and the Brewers.

The following week the Phillies return to Citi Field where they haven’t won a game. The Mets face the Phillies and Yankees that week, two teams that have some offense, but struggle in the pitching department. These are teams that a good pitching team like the Mets should beat. The Phillies get three against the Red Sox while the Mets do the Subway Series thing.

So these next two weeks are a great time for the Mets to start putting distance between themselves and the rest of the division. Let the Phillies start looking over their shoulder at the Braves instead.

Oliver Perez already had a setback in his recovery to replace the struggling Redding, but if Jose Reyes gets back on target on Friday, and this stomach bug moves along, this team should be ready to go.

Angel Pagan getting injured yesterday wasn’t great news. Yet another outfielder hurt, which has been a theme the past three years. However Pagan doesn’t make or break this team. Given all the injuries, if his MRI today doesn’t say he’ll be back tomorrow, you have to DL him and replace him on the roster. My vote would be for Nick Evans. I know he’s been struggling in the minors, but he played well last year, and in Spring Training. Maybe the boost of being on a major league team is what he needs. While still facing a team like the Pirates that’s basically AAA anyway. Corey Sullivan or Bobby Kielty are both acceptable guys in my eyes too.

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Instant Replay, Seating and Pricing, First Place

Instant Replay! Best thing to happen to baseball since the Wild Card! Last night’s was probably the least clear of them all; Murphy’s drive glanced off the overhang of the Pepsi Porch, which is exactly what it was intended to do. However, it shouldn’t have been that difficult. Here’s what I propose.

Tilt all the advertisements slightly. Make it so the bottom of the ad is an inch closer to home plate than the top of it. This will be virtually unnoticeable to anyone, but it will clearly alter the path of any balls that even glance off of it.

Add a camera that is on the corner of the Porch, in foul territory, that only points along the front wall of the Porch.

The best view of it may have been the fans standing (or sitting) in the last section of the Excelsior level. Here’s a shot I took standing there into the bullpen, but you have a good view of that Subway sign.

From 040709_Phillies

People joke about all the pricing levels at Citi Field, but it’s actually pretty straight forward. I opened ticketmaster to check availability for a game at Yankee Stadium, and was confronted with way too many options.

From MetsStuff

Good win by the Mets, getting Santana the W even when he hasn’t been his best. He’s going to be a serious contender for 20 wins this year. The Mets are back in first place where they belong and aren’t playing good teams for the next couple of weeks. Beltran is hopefully back tomorrow, and hopefully Reyes and Church will be back before they find themselves facing a tough team again. It’s time to hang onto first place for the long run.

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They Are That Good

Just because we’re losing, or have lost, doesn’t mean that we aren’t that good.

When you encounter someone that tells you the Mets aren’t that good, give them a pat on the back. Their response is a defense mechanism against the hurt they’re feeling with the way this team is managed and playing.

No matter how you look at it, this team is pretty good and should win the division.

They’re better than last year. The bullpen has gone from bottom five to top five. That’s a huge improvement. The starters seem at least as good as last year. Both corner outfield spots look to be better than last year, as does second base.

The Phillies are worse. Being that they had a ton of pitchers have career years last year, it was obvious they wouldn’t repeat that performance. They weren’t even the best team last year, except as far as ultimate results go. They have been getting by on their offense so far, but their offense, while good, can’t carry them all year. Offense slumps, and that could lead to disastrous stretches of games if their pitchers continue to be mediocre. They certainly didn’t look like a great team in any of the four games they played the Mets.

Even if you go position by position, the Mets are a good team. They’re getting top of the line performance out of 3B and CF. The corner outfielders are around league average or better, and under-performing. Catcher is right around average, while SS and 2B are above it. Pelfrey and Maine are both above league average, which means that we have a favorable pitching match up more times than not.

I know it’s tough sometimes, when they find ways to lose; the manager throws the game away, the 1B of the inning throws the game away, someone makes a key error, or a reliever doesn’t have it. It’s not cause to give up. (Of course, if you’ve truly given up I don’t know what you’re doing watching games or reading blogs) It’s not often teams run away with the division in May. Even great teams. Even championship teams. There is a lot of good, and fun baseball coming. Don’t let a couple of bad games get you down.

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Fresh Ideas

The players are the players. Fundamentals are the result of practice and training. Look at how much better Jose Reyes has gotten at shortstop over the years. To me, this is on the coaches. They don’t seem to be doing proper base running drills, or proper training in general. Perez is what he is, but you know he has talent. It’s on the coaches to bring out that talent.

Between clutch hitting, stolen bases, good defense, and good pitching, this team has shown it all at times. These players have all show they’re capable of it. And you can’t fire the players. It’s time for a real change in management. Sometimes when you’re too close to the problem, you can’t see what needs to be done. It’s time for Howard Johnson, and Jerry Manuel, and probably Dan Warthen too, to get lost. I want some outside influence on this team. Some fresh ideas.

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Letters to the NL East, Part 5/5

Letters to the NL East, Part 5 of 5 (part 0, part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4 )

 

 

Dear New York Mets,

 

New Stadium, Fresh look. Let’s forget these so-called collapses, and focus on 2009. Games from 2008 don’t count, and teams don’t get handicaps for being defending champs. This division is ripe for the picking.

 

Braves look stronger, Phillies look weaker, but you still look like the best team on paper. It’s time to make that stand up. The bullpen changes should be enough to give you enough confidence to finish off these teams, win these games, and have an excellent season. As usual, health plays an issue. You need to make sure guys like Delgado, Church, Castillo and Maine all stay healthy. One benefit this year is that you seem to have a ton of outfield depth in Sullivan, Reed, Kielty and Evans. More so if you do acquire Gary Sheffield today, although I think he’s a washed up cheater if anything.

 

We’re all excited for this season, and hopefully you’ll give us something more to enjoy than a new ballpark. We’re all curious how Citi Field will feel in those rowdy, anxious playoff moments. Lets get us there to find out. Many have reservations about the park and how it stands up to Shea Stadium, but this season has the potential to get to put Shea behind us. Give us a new crop of highlights in the new park, and we’ll all love it.

 

Your lifelong fan,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

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We Don’t Need More Offense

There seems to be a desperate need among some fans for the Mets to upgrade their offense. Some people are overly freaked out to the point (not that it takes much for some) of screaming and yelling about the Wilpons and/or Minaya and the inevitable ‘please spend like the Yankees’ pleas.

They’re off-target. The offense we have is fine. The one area I’d like to see improved is the bench, and this isn’t something you sign Manny Ramirez for. I’d be reluctant to sign an outfielder if it limits Murphy’s playing time, and I think Castillo is going to have a more than acceptable year. Even without those two positions, which was basically where the Mets were last year, they scored the second most runs in the National League (ahead of Philadelphia). Some of it was bad situational stuff, which you have to pin on both HoJo, and Manuel’s lineup and pinch hitting selections. Hopefully both of these get better, but one of the things that definitely will help is the better bullpen. For two years now, repeated blown saves have overshadowed the offense. The Mets weren’t flat in 2007, the bullpen just gave back the lead too often. The Mets weren’t unable to get a big hit in 2008, the big hits just were just obscured by the bullpen giving the lead back, or making the game so out of reach that the big hit that was needed was a 6-run home run.

The Mets will seem to hit better in 2009 even if the lineup stays the same. The Mets will be more capable of winning that 3-2 game, and suddenly their offense will be plenty.

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RyanHoward-Rod

I like my title, shame you won’t see that on the back pages of the Post.

K-Rod.

Pretty much the best closer in the game. At least arguably. Definitely the bets Free Agent relief pitcher on the market, and as much as I’m reluctant to always try to ‘buy’ the best team, this was the right move. I’m not nearly as excited about it as I was Santana, but I’m fully of the mind that if Wagner doesn’t get hurt, the Mets win the division, and probably the Phillies don’t win the Series.

Omar filled the biggest hole with the biggest plug. We still need a a bunch of relievers, but I don’t think they need to be big name guys. Pull in a bunch of guys from the minors, waivers, other teams, rule-5, wherever, and see who can thrive in this system with these coaches and players.

The last two starters should be the next priority. I wouldn’t be against Pedro/Ollie. Not both, but one of them. Perez is probably the better option, but his consistency is infuriating and overly taxing on the bullpen’s piece of mind. I don’t trust Niese to step in and be a reliable 5th starter. I think they should assume he’ll be the guy that’ll get called up when they need a 6th, or a fill in guy when someone needs to skip a start. I’m not overly concerned with who it is, but It’d be nice to have another big innings guys so the bullpens innings can be kept down.

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Ray Lines

I just logged in to place a bet on the Mets to win the game tonight, and decided to check the odds for the World Series.

the Mets are back to 15-1, which is what I got when I made my wager pre-Santana.

The Rays, the team that’s never finished above 500?

10-1.

Ouch.

Cue comparisons to the ’69 Mets.

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Too Early To Worry or Overreact

Three Game Losing Streak

Doesn’t look good does it? The Sunday night game against the Phillies was probably just a result of Pelfrey not going to be excellent every single time out there, and Feliciano’s occasional streakiness. Yesterday was probably a result of using the B lineup, coupled with the remaining A guys slumping.

There are some concerns, but it’s still a little early to be panicking over them. Delgado has been declining, and it looked rather bad last year. The thing is, he had good stretches where he looked fine. So the ability is still there, and I suspect what he needs is some consistency, some warmer weather, and just some swings. For everyone screaming about Church batting 6th, you have to think that him hitting well in the 6th hole helps Delgado. As little as lineups matter when everyone’s not hitting, there are pluses and minuses to each of them.

Luis Castillo has been bad early, but he’s also still hurt. Maybe he’ll be hurt for the rest of his life and he sucks, or maybe, like Delgado, time will help. I don’t want to hear about the contract anymore. Stop thinking about 2011. If this was a one year deal, you wouldn’t be complaining about it, and since this is the very first year you can’t have a problem that he’s on the team in 2011. I liked Gotay too, but he wasn’t the greatest defensive player, and he only had a small small sample of hitting successfully. It’s smaller than the sample size people are using to bash Castillo and Delgado even.

So give it time. Some of these things may turn into big problems, and then it becomes Willie and Minaya’s problems to address, but for now they’re merely points of interest. You can’t fire the manager, bench your star first baseman, or promote question marks from Binghamton on April 22nd.