You can root for the Mets without being convinced of their doom
A snapshot of the offseason before the 1993 season. Lots of tidbits and future Mets on that page. Both expansion teams were picked to finish last, with the tagline “Better than the 1962 Mets.” Ouch. But wait, it gets worse. Both teams would actually finish the season better than the 1993 Mets.
It’s Memorial Day, a day many baseball fans traditionally use to take their first real assessment of the team. Now suddenly standings start really meaning something, it’s considered okay to scoreboard watch, and most batting averages and rate statistics have at least a reasonable sample in which to infer some judgement on the player beyond a hot or cold start. (Jose Reyes is batting .335, is the best shortstop in the game and is just plain exciting to watch. Please extend his contract.)
So where are these Mets going? Right now it certainly doesn’t feel like they’re going very far. They faced the Phillies and the lesser two of their aces and their rotation filler and outpitched all three of them but lost the series. The fielding got sloppy in close games and the bullpen picked the worst possible time to struggle. Still, can you proclaim anything as over in May? The Phillies were 1-3 against the Mets, one game over .500 and 7 games back on Memorial Day in 2007. Sure, the Phillies look better than the Mets right now, but you would’ve said the opposite in 2007.
There is no doubt that the Mets need to play better to have any hope at some sort of reverse 2007 season. The latest news on Ike Davis and David Wright doesn’t exactly have them returning immediately, but it won’t be too much longer either. The news on Johan Santana remains good. If the Mets can find ways to win games without them, and that would include hitting better with RISP and fielding the ball cleanly to not force pitchers to have to get 4 or 5 outs too many times, then they can crawl back to .500 and be poised to add two big bats to help them chase the Phillies. They still have nine games against them and won’t face them again for over a month. The Mets play eight of the next 14 games against the Pirates. It is not unreasonable to expect the Mets to slaughter them, and be able to be above .500 after those 14 games. Minimize the losing stretches of baseball and maximize the winning ones. I think two weeks of this losing is enough, it’s time to start another strong run.
This was a rough weekend for the Mets, but it’s one they can look at and realize that maybe if they field the ball cleanly they win two or three of those games. No excuses; fix the problems or find players that will.
One thing that’s starting to concern me is Terry Collins’ bullpen usage. (#1 thing fans nipick about a manager right?) I really like the Mets bullpen, but i do not like their situational guys, and I wish Collins would stop going to them like they’re gold. These pitchers are not Pedro Feliciano and I would leave Capuano or even Pelfrey in those games. A lot hinges on Buccholz and Beato. Both showed a lot of promise and if they can be relied on in those fringe innings between Isringhausen and K-Rod and the starting pitching then Mets will have a lot of chances to win baseball games.
The Mets got off to a poor start in 2011: The bullpen looked pretty bad and the starting pitching was struggling. The weather was cold and rainy and they couldn’t buy a clutch hit. Over the last month the Mets have made some roster tweaks and been faced with some injuries, but they’ve also played pretty well.
They are 9-6 in May. They are 16-11 since the seven game losing streak that was over a month ago. If they were to continue at that 16-11 pace they’d actually end up winning 91 games. It’s not a torrid pace in any way, but they win more than they lose. They keep themselves in games, and by extension, in playoff races.
It is probably unrealistic to expect the Mets to continue this pace without David Wright and Ike Davis, but there are a lot of other things not going the Mets way either. Will Jason Bay ever start hitting? Will Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy, or a year older Ruben Tejada provide adequate production for a stretch while the other Mets are on the mend? Will Dickey pitch better, get a better grip on the knuckleball as the weather warms up, and at least keep the Mets in the games? Did Mike Pelfrey get his “one bad month” out of the way in April this year?
There are also many unknowns. I don’t buy into speculation about what the Mets are going to do, rosterwise, with this team. Personally I’d be more shocked of Reyes was traded than if he wasn’t. Alderson has to recognize how good Reyes is, how hard it is to find a good shortstop, and how much the fans love him. Alderson has also claimed that he’ll be able to do what needs to be done around the trading deadline to add players, and the potential for the Mets to get better there exists. Then there is Johan Santana recovering from his capsule tear. It’s unrealistic to rely on him coming back, but that doesn’t mean we can’t hope and wonder. He’s on track for recovery now to return in July or August. Whatever the chances are that he doesn’t experience any setbacks, the possibility that you could add a pitcher of his talent and intelligence to a rotation in September is enough to make me smile.
The Mets look and feel like a team. They’re probably not the best team or most talented team in the league, but lately they’ve been winning games, playing good defense, getting some hits when they need them and capitalizing on mistakes made by the other clubs. No team looks all-powerful in the league and if the Mets can continue playing good baseball, get guys healthy, and make some good roster moves there is no reason why they can’t remain competitive all season.
Maybe they’ll even hit a grand slam.
Letters to the NL East, Part 5.
Dear Beloved New York Mets,
Get angry. Seemingly everyone is against you and no one believes in you, but just because circumstances have worked against you recently doesn’t mean you’re out already for 2011. What do the experts know? It’s finally time to actually play some baseball, something you’re all pretty good at. It’s time to surprise some people. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a division winner, with the clinching game coming on Sunday September 25th the Phillies on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. Bobby Valentine will call the action.
David Wright says you need to practice beating teams and getting that swagger and confidence back. Do it. The first nine games are against the Marlins, the Nationals, and the Phillies. With the Phillies you get Hamels who pitches poorly against the Mets, Blanton who’s not very good, and Roy Halladay. It’s the perfect opportunity to get off to a fast start, get Bay and Paulino back, get guys healthy and on track, and start doling out punishment.
Remember, as much as the media wants to write about the Mets being in disrepair, the financial mess, and all the recycled story lines about grit and soft players that they’ve used in the past, if you give them a different story to write they’ll run with that too. People still write about the 1986 team, of which it’s the 25th anniversary of, because their story of beating up on the league and being unapologetic about it was fun to write. So give the writers a story about redemption and revenge. Cast the team, and Wright, as David versus Goliath. Treat everyone as the enemy and don’t let up.
The best thing about this team is it’s depth and balance. There aren’t a lot, if any, bad players on this team. No Jeff Francoeur, no Gary Matthews Jr. There are a variety of relievers that could’ve made the team that are waiting around in Port St. Lucie, and there are seemingly a half dozen different outfield prospects that could show up at any given time. Sure, no one ran away with the second base job, but no one threw it away either. Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner and even Ruben Tejada are right around the corner, or at the end of the dugout, should Emaus not be the guy. Your worst pitcher is either a second year prospect who could come close to 200 Ks, or a former All-Star who pitched to a sub-4 ERA in 66 innings last year in returning from injury.
You are not going to be easy to beat this year, and with some discipline and health, you could make it a really exciting season. Remember, no one gets a handicap for winning the division last year, or for having the best team on paper. It’s time to play the games.
Your Excited Supporter,
Optimistic Mets Fan
To read previous letters, go here.
You did a good job revamping the bullpen, which from what I can remember was terrible. Still, you look a team with some nice players, some passable prospects, and some just not very good ones. In the end, you’re just boring. you’re good enough to win games, not bad enough to be schedule-fodder, but there isn’t much hope for anything else. At least it doesn’t look like you’ll drag us to Puerto Rico this year.
Your bored “rival”,
Optimistic Mets Fan
The starting rotation for the Mets this year looks to be Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Young, and Chris Capuano. Those five are better than a lot of people give then credit for, but let’s start with the returning Mets from last year.
Mike Pelfrey
| Year | W | L | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 15 | 9 | .625 | 3.66 | 33 | 204.0 | 213 | 88 | 83 | 12 | 68 | 5 | 113 | 107 | 1.377 | 9.4 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.66 |
Mike Pelfrey had a good year last year, and it’s not unreasonable to think he can have a comparable one. He had one really bad month that he’ll need to avoid and work through, and hopefully another year of experience can help him do that. He was one of the best pitchers in the game through April last year, and while he probably won’t be quite _that_ good again, if you balance it against him not being as bad as he was in July, the overall performance can probably be similar to what we see in the table above. I think there is some hope that he can cut down on the walks and hits a little bit and maybe get better, but that remains to be seen.
R. A. Dickey
| Year | Age | W | L | G | GS | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 35 | 11 | 9 | 2.84 | 27 | 26 | 2 | 174.1 | 165 | 62 | 55 | 13 | 42 | 104 | 138 | 1.187 | 8.5 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 5.4 | 2.48 |
R.A. Dickey came out of nowhere last season to have one of the best years in the league. In fact his numbers are better than all of the pitchers on the Phillies sans Halladay, so all the talk of the Phillies having four aces and the Mets having none is a little silly. The biggest question regarding Dickey is if last season was a one time deal. Sandy Alderson doesn’t think so, and he gave Dickey a two year contract to prove it, and I don’t think so either. It’s non unheard of for pitchers that utilize the knuckleball to suddenly find success later in their careers as Dickey has done. Dickey has proven to be a very intelligent pitcher and really understands what’s going on on the mound. He throws two knuckleballs and is able to change speeds with it. His fastball isn’t even completely washed up, so when he does throw one, it reaches the mid 80s in velocity and doesn’t need just trickery to get past the hitter. He was able to sustain success throughout the entire season last year, including multiple appearances against the same teams. Also, his walk rate was surprisingly low for a knucklerballer. Pitching to a 2.84 ERA might be a bit lofty, but he was also victimized by poor run support. Perhaps a more potent offense gets the Mets more wins even if Dickey’s ERA rises slightly.
Jonathan Niese
| Age | W | L | G | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 9 | 10 | 4.20 | 30 | 2 | 173.2 | 192 | 97 | 81 | 20 | 62 | 148 | 9 | 93 | 1.463 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 2.39 |
Jonathan Niese is entering his second full season with the Mets, after a surprisingly good rookie year. He hit a wall late in September, something he vows not to do in 2011. He threw two complete games, and had a very nice 7.7 K/9 rate. He really showed good command with his curveball, something you know no opponents are looking forward to facing. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect some improvement from Niese as he’s still a young pitcher learning and adjusting. You’d like to see him give up a few less hits and walks overall, while utilizing his pitches to get more strikeouts. He got 148 last year, and with a little improvement through a full season, he’s a guy that could reach 200.
Chris Young
| Year | Tm | W | L | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Seasons | 48 | 34 | 3.80 | 109 | 1.209 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 2.21 | |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Chris Young has been injured a lot, but as you can see from his career line he’s a pretty good pitcher when he’s healthy. The key is making sure he stays healthy, and can give the Mets numbers approximating his career line. All indications out of Spring Training are that he is healthy and pitching well. If that means strengthening the pen so you don’t over-stress Young’s arm, or occasionally giving him extra rest, then the Mets should do it. Young starts to make this rotation look pretty deep, and while he’s not going to overwhelm or blow anybody away, he gets the job done and induces a lot of weak contact. Other options loom the longer we can keep him healthy, even if he doesn’t make it all season. Johan Santana could return, Dillon Gee or another prospect or Buffalo starter could be throwing the ball really well and deserve a promotion.
Chris Capuano
| Year | W | L | IP | Awards | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Seasons | 46 | 52 | 4.35 | 777.2 | 101 | 1.357 | 9.2 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 2.45 |
Chris Capuano is not quite as impressive as Chris Young, but he’s got the benefit of having pitched enough last year to be over the “Is he healthy?” hump. If he does make the rotation I’m happy with his ability to contribute to winning games, and I’d certainly take a healthy Capuano over most of the 5th best starters other teams are using. In 66 innings last year, in the bullpen and the rotation, Capuano’s numbers were right around his career norms. I’m hopeful with those 66 innings under his ‘new’ belt that he can get comfortable and have a quality year. He’s healthy now, and maybe the lack of pitching of the last couple of years will actually mean his arm is fully healed and hasn’t been worn down by season after season of pitching strain. Despite Chris Young probably being a better pitcher, I’m more confident that Capuano can stay on the field all season and win games for the New York Mets.
Injuries and Depth
I’m not going to pretend that the Mets have a ton of depth to replace these guys if things go wrong. Certainly if the Mets rotation misses more than a handful of starts here and there, there could be problems. Pat Misch could be an emergency starter, but he’s league average at best. Maybe Dillon Gee or another minor league prospect can come up and contribute if they’re forced into it, and maybe someone emerges later in the season if someone gets hurt. There will be at least five starters in Buffalo, and presumably someone will warrant promotion at some point.
Then there is Johan Santana. You would have to to think removing Santana from the rotation and adding Chris Capuano would be a net loss of games for the Mets, but it’s never as clear cut as that. Actually, the Mets lost a lot of Santana’s games last year by scoring no runs when he gave up merely one. If the Mets are hitting, couldn’t they win more games than that even if Capuano gives up three? It’s perhaps unrealistic to expect Santana, coming off a anterior capsule tear, to contribute anything this year, but it’s not wrong to hope and wonder if he can return around the All-Star break and get stronger as the season reaches it’s conclusion. All baseball seasons are full of uncertainty and risk, and while it’s certainly a risk that one of the Mets pitchers could injure themselves and hurt the Mets chances, there’s also the possibility that Santana returns and contributes down the stretch.
So as it stands right now, the Mets rotation looks pretty solid from top to bottom and is full of pitchers with talent and ability. They should keep the Mets in the game, and create opportunities for them to win those games with some offense. The diversity of the staff plays into things as well; You’ve got a knuckleball, a curveball, a sinkerball, and two control pitchers. That’s a lot of prep work for opposing lineups to do to try to keep on top of all the different looks they’ll see when they face the Mets.
Could this be the final test for the Mets?
I hope it’s not, but if they fail it may mean the figurative end to their season. The next two weeks are very critical, and the first order of business is just flat out winning games. The Mets have played very well at home this year, and they’ve got three games against the tough Cardinals, and then three against the not so tough Diamondbacks. There can be no excuses: They have to win games. Omar’s job, provided he still has one, is to bring in reinforcements after that. The trading deadline is next weekend, and the Mets are in need of some help. No longer can they play waiting games or decide they don’t like the price. When you drop as many games in the standings as the Mets did, you no longer have the luxury of pretending you’re not desperate for help.
After the Diamondbacks the Mets again head on the road. It’s this road trip that could prove to be critical, as they face the Braves and the Phillies. The Braves have been amazing lately, and the Mets have been making just about every other ballpark look to them like Turner Field did around the turn of the century. By falling so far back, it’s become imperative that they make up ground by beating the competition in front of them. Losing and falling further behind could very well be a death blow.
The Mets have been extremely streaky this year and they really are much better than they’ve shown lately. If they take that streak and turn it into a hot stretch where they’re again a team that’s tough to beat, they could climb right back into this race. There is still a lot of baseball to be played and August could be a good month for them. After they play the division rivals on the road, they come home for the Rockies and the Phillies before going on a road trip that one would describe similarly to the Cleveland-Baltimore trip they took that they were successful on: they play the Astros and the Pirates. Another home stretch with the Marlins and the Astros provides plenty of time to fight their way back into this race before facing the Braves again at the end of the month.
Can the Mets ace this next test and fight their way back into relevancy again? I don’t know. Neither answer would surprise me, but I’m certain they’re capable of it. They often say you need to get hot at the right time and if the Mets can capitalize on that by beating up on the division rivals, as the Phillies did in 2007, they can certainly win this division.
Huge three game series for the Mets coming up here, but most of it’s about perception and confidence. No three games in July ever decide anything, but winning and losing this series is the difference between being within striking distance of the division lead going into the break, and being clearly the second-best team.
If the Mets win this series they will be respected throughout the league as contenders. They’ll be brought up in all trade talks for big acquisitions. When analysts adjust their season predictions, the Mets will make it onto a lot of their lists. David Wright will again be recognized as one of the best players in the game, people will stop taking as many pot shots at the Mets, their minor league system, their medical staff and their decision making.
If they lose and fall four or more games back from the division lead things won’t be as rosy during the break. Analysts will find a way to justify their decision in the winter that the Mets have too many holes to make the playoffs. They’ll talk up Bobby Cox, they’ll talk about the Phillies having a good second half. Jose Reyes will be described as injury prone. Carlos Beltran will be portrayed as an 80 year old grandma that can’t walk, much less play CF. They’ll question Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya and their ability to do their job.
All off the results of one series. If a sweep happens either way, the reactions will be even more extreme.
The series is really not that big a deal. It’s an important series to try to win and not let the Braves get too far ahead, but even if they’re four games out going into the break, that’s hardly insurmountable given how many games they still play against each other. Still, it’s a chance for the Mets to put the first half to rest on a positive note, take a deep breath, and soar into the second half with the addition of Carlos Beltran.
If you’re headed out to Citi Field for any of these games, the Mets are having a fan appreciation weekend. They’re doing a lot of seat upgrades, signed giveaways, and handing out gift cards. On Sunday 25 lucky fans will receive game-worn jerseys. Enjoy!
This Mets team can be pretty scary. I certainly thought they had a chance to be very competitive coming into this year, but it would’ve been hard for anyone to predict it would evolve the way it did. The team may be the team you’d least want to face in the National League, because you never know what you’re going to get from them, they can hit you from all angles. People talk about Philadelphia’s offense being scary, but when you get down to it the Phillies are a team built on offense; if you pitch well against them you can win any of the games.
The Mets can baffle a team’s offense on any day. It could happen via R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball dancing towards the plate, or it could happen with Pelfrey’s dominate sinking fastball. The next day Jon Niese could unleash his curveball, or Johan Santana could be on the mound with his two Cy Young awards. The bullpen has also been very good, regularly racking up scoreless innings. They’ve got some hard throwers, some specialists, and Frankie Rodriguez.
Offensively the Mets have the talent to beat a team in a couple of ways. They’re capable of hitting big home runs one day, and the next day battering pitching to a tune of 14 runs without a long ball. They’re aggressive, steal bases, take extra bases on base hits, capitalize on errors and play hard. They’re capable of coming back from deficits, don’t quit until the game is over, and even if a starting pitcher is shutting them down, they’re capable of waking up against a reliever and winning a game.
They seem to have the right mixture of confidence and cockiness, and all reports suggest they have great clubhouse chemistry. (Winning will do that) Even if they don’t make a trade, it looks like they’ll be getting Carlos Beltran back to the lineup which would be about as big a mid-season acquisition as you can find. They’re already in prime playoff position, and they’ve got plenty of guys looking to have a better second half including Johan Santana, Jason Bay, Luis Castillo, and Jose Reyes. This is a team to look out for, and it’s looking like the final series before the All-Star break against the Braves is going to be a big one.
I’ve been to a lot of Major League Baseball parks. Obviously I’ve been to Citi Field and Shea Stadium as well as the two most recent Yankee Stadiums. I’ve been to Fenway (Hideo Nomo one hit the Blue Jays, which I’d forgotten when I was leaving the Niese game the other day trying to think of the other one-hitters I’d seen), RFK Stadium (The final two games there ever, they were playing the Phillies in late 2007 so I even had a heavy rooting interest), Dolphin Stadium as it was known by that month, Wrigley Field, I was in St. Louis during the demolotion of the last Busch Stadium, Coors Field, Petco Park, Angel Stadium, Dodger Stadium, Oakland Colliseum and the Giant’s Park, which I think was named SBC Park at the time, but I didn’t see the Mets play at any of them.
The only time I’ve seen the Mets play on the road (I’m ignoring Yankee Stadium, because it doesn’t really count as ‘away’) was a day-night doubleheader in early 2007 in Citizen’s Bank Park. It was a fun day and was before the rivalry. Phillies fans had no hope for the season and were reveling in 10000 losses and just hoping not to get destroyed by the defending NL East champs. This weekend I will add one more road Mets game to my credit, against the Orioles in Camden Yards on Sunday. It’s supposed to be a great park, it’s a Pelfrey start, and the Mets have won six of seven games I’ve seen this year.
One thing that’s always odd about watching the Mets on the road is the batting first thing. All of a sudden the game has started and there is Reyes ready to go. Usually we have three outs to get settled. The scoreboard never prompts us to cheer “Lets Go Mets”, even though there will be a very good representation of Mets fans at these games. Mr. Met is nowhere to be found, and they never play Lazy Mary after Take Me Out To The Ballgame.
Nonetheless, I’m excited. I have a good feeling that they’ll finally have a winning road trip, and they’ve gotten off to a good start winning the first game. I’ll also be in attendance at Yankee Stadium to end the trip, hoping it’ll be a nice capper on a road trip that finally erases the 2009 bad feelings and has the Mets in first place to start the summer.