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Can Jesus Cure the Mets Road Woes?

As is the usual story when the Mets are playing at home, things are looking up.  The Mets have the best record in the majors at home, but the worst on the road.  Which is the true story of the Mets?

Well, like any major league team, it’s really both.  The Mets are capable of being the poorly run team on the road that lets little things beat them like making one bad pitch, failing to get a runner in from third, poor fielding, or the wrong pitching change.  They’re also capable of being the dominating team that you see when they play at Citi Field.  The team that laces doubles and triples into the gaps, that pitches out of jams and makes the opposing team struggling with runners in scoring positions, the team that comes back from deficits and is never out of a game.   

It’s not just that the Mets get lucky when they’re at home.  They really are capable of being a dominating, scary team.  Despite their poor play they’re hanging in this division and with a weak road trip coming up, they have a chance at reversing their fortunes.  First they have a revenge series against the Padres, with both Pelfrey and Santana pitching.  (I’m aware they had both pitching in San Diego as well)  If they can win this series, they’d be 32 and 28, four games over .500 with a nine game road trip coming up.   

The Mets roster has gotten quite a shakeup over the last couple of days.  Niese returns and Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, and Gary Matthew Junior either went on the DL or were released.  Jesus Feliciano and Ruben Tejada have joined the team.  Both are rookies, Feliciano finally getting the call-up at 31 years of age after an excellent start to the season where he’s batting almost .400 in Buffalo.  He had a good season last year and played well in the World Baseball Classic for Puerto Rico.  I actually saw him play in the first game against the USA in which he helped them win in mercy rule fashion.   He’s received a lot of praise from his Buffalo team and from Alex Cora as a guy that can hit the ball and knows how to win. I don’t know if the “knows how to win” argument is really worth anything, but it won’t be hard to bring more value than Gary Matthews Jr did.  It’s yet unknown what type of player Tejada will be, and definitely unknown if he can get on base at the rate that Castillo normally does, but so far he’s played well and he’s young and exciting and his presence means the Mets have a fully home-grown infield for the time being.  Not a bad deal for a team that’s supposedly bad at the draft.  

Jesus Feliciano (#23) joins his Puerto Rican teammates (Beltran, Delgado, Cora, Pedro Feliciano) in celebrating the mercy rule win over the USA Jesus Feliciano (#23) joins his Puerto Rican teammates (Beltran, Delgado, Cora, Pedro Feliciano) in celebrating the mercy rule win over the USA. Feliciano went 6/16 during the WBC.

So with some of the regulars rounding into mid-season form and some new fresh faces, I expect them to play better on the next road trip and return home in first place.  Six of those games are against really bad American League teams in the Indians and Orioles.  The three games at the end of it against the Yankees may be a little tougher, but they’ve already beaten them once. 

It’s going to be an exciting couple of weeks.  The Mets have invited me to Citi Field on Wednesday, I’m considering traveling the Baltimore for the Saturday game against the Mets, and I’ll be at the finale of the road trip against the Yankees, likely seeing Santana again.  By the time that road trip finishes the Mets will hopefully have put the road woes behind them, are at or near first place, and we’ll even know more about if and when Beltran is coming to rejoin the team. I’m really looking forward to the next 12 games. 

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Time for a Mental Break

I need a mental break from the Mets. They’re tiring. There are too many subtle questions: What is Warthen doing with Perez and Maine and why has the bullpen fallen apart? Why did Frankie Rodriguez choose that pitch to throw on 0-2 to Eckstein? Is Manuel capable of managing this team correctly? Will David Wright stop striking out? Will any of the players hit with any consistency or even approach career type years? Will Omar get another starting pitcher, and will he fix the bench?

After watching K-Rod blow it, and then Manuel leave in Valdes to face five batters and only retire the one that was a bunt and give up the grand slam to the only legitimately scary batter in the lineup has worn me out. While I certainly believe this team is capable of adjusting and getting better and performing and even winning, right now I’m just worn down mentally. This happens to me once or twice a season, and I’m going to take the weekend to just relax and not watch the Mets. I hate watching the Marlins anyway, as I feel they are an embarrassment to the sport with the way they run the franchise.

Logically, the Mets should have an axe to grind with the Marlins after getting swept by them a couple of weeks ago and they’re playing at home where they actually win. Then they face the Padres, who they also should want to pummel a bit, and they’ll have Santana and Pelfrey in that series again. So really they should do well in the upcoming games, and then they go face two of the worst teams in the American League in Cleveland and Baltimore. Couple this with some roster moves that Omar, Manuel, and Perez need to make and maybe things will be looking up for the Mets soon, but for now I need a mentally refreshing weekend.

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Simple Changes Omar Minaya Needs to Make to the Mets

The Mets are a good team.  They’ve got a lot of good players, lots of character, and have a real chance at going far this season.  However, they could be better. There are some very simple things Omar Minaya can do that will make the Mets a better team.

Fixing Oliver Perez is one of the most popular discussions these days.  This one obviously isn’t as black and white.  Where has his velocity gone for instance?  Oliver Perez, unlike most pitchers, is a guy that need some guidance and oversight.  Manuel and Warthen seem to be two of the worst guys to provide this, choosing instead to give up on him rather then try to help.  Maybe they don’t know what to do, which would actually be worse.  Regardless, Oliver Perez has the talent to be a good pitcher.  Someone needs to grow a brain and figure out how to proceed in this regard.   There have been signs, even this year, that he can be very solid..

Replace Frank Catalanotto on the roster.  Even though his failure is over a very small sample size, his upside isn’t exactly that of a superb pinch hitter.  Failure is still failure, and there are dozens of decent replacements to his position on the roster.  Right now he almost never plays the field anyway, so you don’t even need an awesome defender to replace him.  Nick Evans, Chris Carter, Mike Hessman all seem like suitable replacements.

Gary Matthews Junior.  He’s had more at bats than Frank, and has gotten more than a fair chances worth of starts to prove that he can be worthwhile.  He’s failed at just about every opportunity.  It’s a shame Manuel ever chose to start him over Pagan, who’s hit right around .300 for his Mets career.  The major reason cited for keeping him is that he can play center field.  (Besides the somewhat undefinable ‘experience’ factor that Manuel always throws out there)  Pagan is just fine, so do we really need to have a legitimate center fielder to  back him up?  If so, you’ve got guys like Jason Pridie and Jesus Feliciano in the minors.  If not, then just go with Pagan full time and on the rare day he gets a day off, both Frenchy and Bay know what to do in center field for one game, even if it’s not ideal defensively.  This opens up the possibility to any corner outfielder as a backup.

Jenrry Mejia.  I’ve been semi-supportive of the idea to keep him up in the majors if he can help the team win.  However, he’s struggled at times and it only seems to  be hurting his development of his other pitches.  The bullpen has been pretty good, and since starting pitchers are so much more valuable, it’s time to send Mejia back down to the minors to work on being that starting pitcher.

Fernando Tatis is another player that doesn’t seem to have much value.   His best value is his ability to play multiple positions adequately, but the Mets aren’t in any great need in that regard.  Bay and Francoeur play basically all the time, as does David Wright.  Cora’s got 2B.  Ike Davis could probably do with a day or two off occasionally if he hits an extended rough patch, but the Mets have plenty of adequate 1B guys that can fill Tatis’ role better than him.  When Daniel Murphy is fully healed I think he’d be a much better guy to play the role.  He’s younger, has much power, and is a better defender.  He’s got no real spot to play on this team, and right now doesn’t have a ton of value.  If he could be a super-utility guy on this team, the Mets could probably get something of value for him in the off season.  No one else even wanted Tatis last off season, so he basically has zero value on or off this team.

Fire Jerry Manuel, Dan Warthen, and Howard Johnson.  It’s hard for fans, especially on the outside, to evaluate what role these types of guys have.  It’s pretty obvious Manuel does not know how to handle a  baseball team, from wearing out bullpens, to giving up outs while down runs late in games, to playing guys out of position.  He seems to undermine his players to the media, and always seems to show no faith or confidence in his players that need it, excepting washed up veterans who he plays way too much for some reason.  It’s not an easy situation replacing a manager and finding a suitable replacement.  They screwed it up last time they went through this, and they’re still paying for it, but it’s something that could definitely help this team.

Dan Warthen and Howard Johnson may be easier.  They each seem to have had some marginal success with some players, but for the most part the bullpen and starters have underperformed under Warthen, and excepting Pagan and Francoeur, no player has really hit their career numbers or better with Johnson.  It may be time for a fresh perspective on all this, and there is no time like the present.

Not all of these need to be done.  There are different solutions to the problems I’ve presented, and some of the problems might not be as dire as they seem to me.  However, all good teams make adjustments to the roster, and the Mets have reached the point where it’s time to cull some dead weight, and give some new guys a chance.  Hopefully Omar is already discussing which moves he should make for the upcoming games.

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First Place Mets Play For Respect

This series against the Phillies, while not that huge a deal in the overall season, is a pretty big deal for the Mets. The Mets have been disrespected and dismissed by much of baseball, and yet they stand in first place.

Most feel the Phillies are the “better team”, but this series is the first opportunity to show that the Mets can hang with them. It goes a long way towards instilling confidence in the players if they could go out and beat Philly this weekend. It will remind Philly, even though it’s still early, that the Mets are not just going to go quietly into the night this year. It will remind fans that the Mets are a serious fun team to watch and will be in the conversation all season. It will remind the national media, as the weekend games are both on National, or semi-National, tv, that there is another team in New York that’s going to be talked about this summer.

Win these games and fans will start coming back to Citi Field. People will feel good about the team. It would go a long way towards erasing some of the feeling of 2009 and hard luck. It will extinguish any real assertion that the Mets are at best a wild card team. The Phillies are not a powerhouse. Their pitching is suspect outside of Halladay and one pitcher does not make a team. Playing this team hard and gaining a little swagger about themselves is the first step towards what can be a championship season for the New York Mets.

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The New York Mets Are Not A Wild Card Team

Two words that have no place in Mets discussions: “Wild Card”

unoWild

I’ve heard it a bunch of places, even  Ron Darlings.  The Wild Card is not a term that needs to be mentioned right now, about a team that’s in first place with 18 games still to play against the biggest challenging team.  The Wild Card need not be mentioned until August at the earliest.  The Wild Card should never be the goal.

The division is not out of the question for the Mets.  There is no doubt in my mind that the Phillies will not run away with anything.  They are a team that won 93 games last year, and the Mets are at the very least 10 games better, and the Nationals are better.  The Phillies play almost 25% of their games against those two teams, so it’s likely that the increased talent would shave a couple of games off the Phillies win total.  The Phillies have a couple of guys injured, and aren’t all that improved over last year anyway.  They had guys have career years last year, and career years often don’t get repeated.  They’re even picking up guys off our scrap heap, which doesn’t say a lot for their pitching or infield depth.  The Mets were criticized for having no depth and having to go with Wilson Valdez and Nelson Figueroa last year, yet the Phillies are doing the very same thing this year.

Anything can happen in a baseball season.  Nothing is decided in the offseason, or in April.  However, it’s going into May soon and the Mets are standing in first place.  I said earlier last week that the goal I would like of the Mets is to get through this home stand with a chance to play the Phillies for first place this coming weekend.  After some excellent baseball games it’s looking like it could be the Mets playing the Phillies to help lengthen their division lead.

Ron Darling had a great comment during a replay of David Wright’s bases clearing triple.  As he was rounding second, Ron said “And right around here is where the monkey jumped off his back.” It’s a good start along those lines, and if the Mets could beat the Phillies, play the Reds and return home solidly in first place it’d go a long way towards erasing 2009.  A lot has been made of the attendance figures at Citi Field so far, but I think a lot more of us would start making the trip to the stadium if they returned home conquering heroes and reclaiming their rightful place atop the National League East.

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Letters to the NL East, Part 5/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 0 of 5. (part 0, part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4)

AngryMrMet

Dear New York Mets,

Welcome to the what I like to joke is the second half of the ’09-’10 season.   But it’s time to put the past behind us and move on.  Nothing that happened before today counts for anything, and it’s time to step it up and start taking control of your own destiny.

Last season was a disaster; Let’s not talk about it anymore.  It’s now 2010 and even though we’ve got a couple of nagging injuries, there is hope.  Reyes will be back shortly, Murphy by the end of the month, and hopefully Beltran not too much after that.  The pitchers are healthy and while we’re missing Beltran for too much time, the rest of the offense is actually really capable.  There’s a lot of pressure on the pitching staff right now, but from all accounts you’ve got a chip on your shoulder and are working hard to succeed.  Relish the underdog role and punish the opponent.

Citi Field is amazing and all the changes look great.  Now make the experience inside a memorable one and make me forget that there is a Big Apple Brews or Shake Shack anywhere.  I’ll be there today early enough to get all that stuff out of the way before settling in to watch Santana pitch.  It’s time to get some confidence and win some games. It’s time to talk about things like wins and losses, actual performance, and stat lines, without trying to predict and project what you guys are going to do.  The division is ripe for the picking, and it’s time you stopped disappointing us and rise up and take it.   Let’s rock Citi Field like it’s never rocked before.

The predictions for your team are meek, but don’t let that bother you.  It’s time to surprise some people.  By June I expect to hear a collective, begrudging “I think this division is the Mets after all” to be uttered by the supposed baseball experts.  I expect you to make it so that most Philadelphia blogs will be talking about the Eagles by August.  The Mets have never closed two consecutive decades without a World Series title, and I see no reason to start the trend now.  In fact, they’ve never had a decade where they did not even go to the World Series, so let’s make that the starting point.

Your lifelong fan,

Optimistic Mets Fan

(I’ll be at the game today, but some that aren’t will be gathering in the Real Dirty Dugout irc chatroom of which you can find a link over on the right)

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Letters to the NL East, Part 4/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 4 of 5. (part 1, part 2, part 3)

phil_phylis

Dear Philadelphia Phillies,

You suck.  That’s right, you heard me.  You’re the “popular” pick to win the division, much like the Mets were predicted to win the World Series last year.  You know what?  It doesn’t matter.  You get credit in analysts’ eyes for being there in the past, but that doesn’t actually get you any wins in 2010.

You already get one big black mark for letting Cliff Lee leave when you acquired Halladay.  Now suddenly your rotational is only marginally better, at best.  And you have at least as many question marks at the Mets.  Sure, those questions have turned out to be exclamation points in the past, but this is a different year.  Maybe Hamels was a one-hit wonder, and will continue to be merely pedestrian.  Blanton has never been anything special, and Moyer had a hot spring, but is hardly a reliable product in the rotation.  Happ is the one thing to hold on to, in that he had a really good year in his time up last year.  There is no guarantee that that will continue, that he won’t get figured out by the league and fail to adjust, that he won’t suffer the sophomore curse.

Pedro Feliz was such a solid feature at third base that I just don’t buy that Polanco is anything more than a lateral move at best.  Your bullpen is extremely suspect, and while you do have a potent offense, the Mets did match you in runs scored prior to the injury-plagued 2009.   This offseason you lock up a couple of your players to long term contracts, and coupled with letting Lee go, it’s apparent you don’t have the money to fill any holes that arrive this season.

So, while you get many props for winning the division in previous years, the calendar has turned and that buys you nothing in 2010.  You’re at the top of the hill but you’re teetering at the edge.  All it would take is one misstep, or one good push, for you to go tumbling back to obscurity.

While I’ve enjoyed having a real rival that’s both geographical close and in the same league, I don’t know if you can keep it up for long enough for us to say that Mets-Phillies is better than Yankees-Red Sox and really mean it.  The Mets have some minor injuries to start the season, so you should take advantage of it while you still can.  If you can’t start getting ahead in the race, the Mets will steamroll right by you when they’re back to full strength.

It’s going to be a fun and combative year.  Can you handle it?

Your bitter enemy,

Optimistic Mets Fan

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Letters to the NL East, Part 2/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

nationalslogo

Letters to the NL East, Part 2 of 5. (part 1)

Dear Washington Nationals,

You’ve won the award for biggest roster turnover, and biggest hyped prospect, but this doesn’t mean that you’re going to be vastly improved.  Kudos on working to make the future of baseball in Washington DC a little bit brighter.

With Steven Strasburg looming in the minors it sounds like there will be more to look forward to this season beyond Barack Obama throwing out the Presidential first pitch.  This tradition was actually first started by Taft 100 years ago.

You’ve got some talented young pitchers on the team already, and a couple of guys that can actually swing the bat.  However this isn’t enough to field a complete team, and though you’ll be improved, you’ll still likely be the caboose of the National League East and end your season along with everyone else on October 3rd.

Look on the plus side though, if Strasburg is talented enough to make the majors this year he’ll draw a lot of fans to come see him pitch!

Sincerely yours,

Optimistic Mets Fan

Join the discussion at The Real Dirty Mets Blog!

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Division Isn’t Out of the Question for the Mets

You may have seen that pessimistic post on Metsblog earlier that stated the Mets should be aiming to go 45 and 20 to win the Wild Card.  This is short sighted.  I hate to do this, but let’s go back to 2007.

On July 27th 2007 the Mets were up four games over the Phillies and Braves in second place.  They kept the hordes at bay for a month, and on August 27th were six games up, seven over the Braves, and neither team looked really good.

Then the Mets played that ill-fated series in Philadelphia where they lost four games, the lead dropping to two games and panic started to set in.  The Mets rebounded terrifically winning five in a row and 10 of their next 12.

They hosted the Phillies again on September 12th with a seven game lead and plenty of reason to think that the series in Philadelphia was merely a fluke.

More so than any other reason, the Mets lost in 2007 because they lost those seven games to the Phillies.  In 2009 the Mets and Phillies play eight more times.  They blew their first chance at this a couple of weeks ago, allowing the Phillies to sweep them, but 65 games and eight against the leader is not something you write off.  If the Mets are good enough to overcome the deficit in the wild card, they’re good enough to overcome the deficit in the division.  The Phillies are bound to come back to earth, as they’re not going to play at this crazy winning percentage for the rest of the season, and now they’ve started to be bit by the injury bug as well.  If the Mets can recover and run with it, it’s the division that’s waiting, not the wild card.  If you’re looking for numbers or formulas, here is one for you.

There are 10 weeks left of the season, and 8 games against the Phillies.  Win six of the games against the Phillies, and then play merely one game better than them in five of the other 8 weeks they don’t play Philadelphia.  Win one more game, whether it’s another against the Phillies, another random game during the season, or game 163.  From there the playoffs are your oyster.

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Hard to be Optimistic about the Mets

It’s hard to be optimistic with the state of the Mets right now. It’s hard to be confident in Omar, it’s hard to be confident in Manuel and the coaches, and even the promising young guys no longer seem promising.

comebackreyes

How did we go from being disappointed that Murphy got an extra plate appearance last season and wouldn’t be eligible for Rookie of the Year, to a guy that we’re talking about trading while he still has some value. Personally, I don’t agree with that sentiment, but Murphy’s stock has definitely gone down since last year.

Mike Pelfrey was quickly becoming an excellent pitcher, and while there were some concerns most were okay with him being ‘named’ the number two starter before the season. Now he’s struggling to make that next step and gain consistency.

To me both these guys have talent, drive, and are smart enough to learn how to get better. So why aren’t they getting better? While the ultimate onus falls on the player, this is why there is a manager and coaches in the first place. Most people don’t really understand what a coach does, but if they didn’t have a big role they wouldn’t be fired as often as they are, and teams wouldn’t necessarily even have them.

It doesn’t have to be a career All-Star on the bench to be a good coach, merely a student of the game. He needs to be able to identify and assist players with making the adjustments they need to make, or fixing the bad habits they’re picking up. Good players can do this on their own, but even good players often have a blind spot when analyzing themselves. It’s the same in all areas of the world. This is why English teachers since grade school have been teaching us to have someone else read over and review our writing.

It appears that there is something fundamentally wrong with the Mets. This has been the case since 2007, and has yet to be identified and fixed. Too many guys are under-performing, and virtually no one is over-performing. This is what makes or breaks good teams. And this is what defines a good manager or coach. It’s not just luck when a player has a career year; it’s often due to hard work, and proper guidance. The Mets have been a better team than the Phillies for years, but the difference is somehow journeyman middle relief in Philadelphia has been able to excel and pitchers like J.A. Happ have come out of nowhere to pitch brilliantly, while Pelfrey, Murphy, Parnell, Evans and guys that have showed promise with the Mets have fizzled and failed to make good on promises of success.

Is the season over? No, it’s not. I don’t buy the Marlins as legitimate. I’m not sure the Braves will be appreciably over .500, although they do look pretty good. If you buy that, it’s between the Mets and the Phillies. The Mets are far behind, but technically it’s only a game or two. They still play each other eight times, and if the Mets were to win those games they’ll be in good position, which isn’t completely out of the question as unlikely as it seems given the current state of the team. It’s growing more and more unlikely as the Phillies pull off more and more unlikely wins and the Mets continue to struggle to find any consistency, but if the ship were to be righted and players do come back from the disabled list and perform, it’s not out of the question for the Mets to catch up.