Posted on

Letters to the NL East, Part 0, Dear Yankees…

To read previous letters, go here.
Letters to the NL East, part 0

Dear New York Yankees,

It’s April again.  It’s time to see how your collection of players that were good in the early part of last decade hold up in 2011.  The offense should be fine with mansion-building Jeter manning shortstop.  Even if he can’t quite man the position, at least he can make fine looking leaping throws since he lacks the arm strength of Jose Reyes to reach first otherwise.

The Mets released Oliver Perez, but if we still want to see his act we can always tune in to Yankees games when A.J. Burnett pitches.  Your bullpen looks good, sure, but Mariano is another year older and has presumably reached the stage where he’ll never have to audition for another contract again; the opposite of a contract year.  Soriano has been said to be a bit of a malcontent, we burned Pedro Feliciano out already, and most of us are tired of the Joba show.  Did you really add Luis Ayala, prominent 2008 collapsee, to the roster?

You’ve got steep competition in that division; the Red Sox are clearly better on paper and I wouldn’t count out the Rays.  The Blue Jays have managed to at least be dangerous in recent years and the Orioles are gunning for you.

Good luck trying to make the playoffs this year…you’ll need it.

You crosstown rival,

Optimistic Mets Fan

Posted on

Will You Second Guess Sandy Alderson?

The general consensus about the Mets new general manager is that he’s a great hire and going to do great things for the franchise.  That he’s capable of advanced analysis and really understands the game.  Sure, some fans are skeptical, but for the most part we’re happy that he’s leading this club.

He’s already joked that the honeymoon is over, but how long will we truly give him until we second guess his decisions?  Will we ever give him the benefit of the doubt or will we insist we know better if he chooses someone for the roster we disagree with?

Specifically, if Sandy Alderson watches Oliver Perez throughout Spring Training and determines that he can add value to this team by being on the roster, will we be okay with it?

I doubt it.  A recent poll on Metsblog suggested that more fans would rather Perez fail than succeed.  I find this disturbing.  Oliver Perez is on the Mets, and when players on the Mets do good, the Mets do good. The Mets doing good is what matters the most.

So while I certainly have favorite players and guys I would like to see make the club like Nick Evans and Daniel Murphy, ultimately what I want is the best 25 guys that will lead to the Mets having the best possible club to start the season.  If that means Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, or even Jose Canseco, I’ll root for them to do well.

Posted on

They Played Baseball!

Men, some of them even with METS written on their chests, played baseball this weekend!  I know some don’t get excited for exhibition baseball, but it’s a beautiful day in New York and the familiar sounds of baseballs are in the air and on the screen.  Opening Day doesn’t seem far away.

It’s not even about the results.  The results this early in the Grapefruit League season are practically worthless.  That players are getting reps and throwing pitches and swinging bats and catching and throwing the baseball is enough.   Not that that will stop  fans and even beat writers from proclaiming who will make the team and who will get cut.  I’m not ready for that yet; Those are late spring decisions.

I’ll be headed to Florida for three Mets games in mid-March.  I’ll have some fun tweeting pictures and observations and just basking in the excitement of being at a baseball game.  Until then, read my posts from week about what to watch, and what not to, in Spring Training.

Posted on

Do You Trust Sandy Alderson?

It seems most of us do. Sandy is a smart guy, and he’s a lot closer to the process than we are. I understand that second guessing the team is almost as much fun as actually watching them play, but it’s time to take a little step back and trust in our newly hired general manager and his front office.

The idea is that just because we think something is obvious, that a decision HAS TO happen, doesn’t mean it does. We are not the general managers of this team, we are fans. As fans, the number one thing we want to see is the Mets to play winning baseball on the way to the World Series. We do not know how to achieve this, and we certainly don’t have a better idea of it than Sandy Alderson.

It’s time to stop demanding that Oliver Perez has to go. We do not know better than Alderson on whether or not Luis Castillo can contribute to the 2011 Mets. We don’t know that Backman/Valentine/Mazilli/Stengel is the absolute perfect fit to manage this team. We don’t know how attainable certain free agents are, how much we can afford to give them, or what the best fit for the team is.

I’m not saying we can’t talk about it. It can be fun to debate free agents acquisitions, it’s an interesting exercise to write up mock 2011 batting orders. Digging into advanced statistics to look for bargain pitchers can be a great learning experience about the game. It makes sense to doubt that Oliver Perez will get his fastball back up or be a contributing pitcher.

Last year nearly every free agent signing or trade was met with comments from Mets fans along the lines of “Why didn’t we at least offer X?”, “That guy would’ve been perfect at Citi Field!”, “Henry Blanco? Well gee, the World Series is a lock now!” Many of these comments were unfair last year, and the same holds true today. Sandy has a plan, and we’re going to have to trust in him to execute it. Trust in him not to put losing players on the field, and to start building a roster that can compete year after year.

Posted on

Will I Be Lonely At The Citi Tonight?

I’m going to Citi Field, courtesy of a non baseball-watching friend who got two tickets for donating blood. (I actually haven’t figured out whom to give the spare one to) The Mets are virtually out of it, merely at .500, and 8 full games away from even sniffing a playoff spot.  I’m not going to say “It’s over” because stranger things have happened, but until they rattle off a streak better than 4-3, even I’m not going to be hanging on every game like it’s a pennant race.  So will anyone be out at the game tonight? Someone suggested I should try the dunk tank and pretend it’s Oliver Perez sitting on it.  I’ll explore the free giveaways at the Verizon Studio, and see if the seasonal beers have changed to fall yet.

Will the lines at Shake Shack be short?  Or will they be longer as more people are willing to walk away from watching the game for a great burger?

Will the crowd get into the game if it’s a good game?  Or will they mostly be disinterested and focus on booing guys like Castillo?

Will people leave early, even if it’s a close game?  If the score is 6-2 can I expect the stands to be virtually empty by the 9th?  Will they be mostly empty even if it’s 4-3?

Personally I’ll be looking forward to a good pitching matchup (Johnson vs. Dickey) and looking forward to Dickey reaching the minimum innings required to qualify for the ERA list, on which he’d be in the top 10.

I’m watching the game from section 337, row 4.  That’s Left Field Landing, and somewhere I’ve never sat before.  Always enjoy the new vantage points, and row 4 probably isn’t overly obscured like the back rows of that section are.  I’ll also probably roam at random taking pictures of everything.  If you see a guy with a camera pointing at odd things wearing a Mets Hall of Fame cap and a Wright last season at Shea jersey…probably me.

Posted on

I Predict an Oliver Perez Sighting Tonight

I know no one wants to hear it, but I’m suspecting we may see Oliver Perez tonight, and definitely before the end of the road trip. Here’s a couple of reasons why:

1. He hasn’t pitched in ages.

2. reports that he’s “looking better” (I don’t know how this can be when he hasn’t actually faced batters)

3. The Mets have already not lost this series, and 2 road wins a trip is normal. Could be thinking it’s house money at this point?

4. Bullpen tired from yesterday.

5. B.S. about missing-Frankie need to get more value from everyone else.

At this point, with the Mets virtually eliminating and sending subtle signs that they’re very aware of this, it might be time to try to get Perez into a state where you might be able to raise his value such that an opposing GM may consider trading for him if they’ve had a couple of beers. It’s in the Mets best interest to play him since his value cannot go down, but if they could tease some modicum of success out of him down the stretch, or in Spring Training next year, they might be able to trade him for a long-shot AAA player or a down on his luck reliever.

Posted on

Oliver Perez’s “Changeup”

Isn’t this changeup, by definition, not a changeup?

This changeup defies its definition
This changeup defies its definition

And that seems to be the crux of the problem with Oliver Perez.  How is gameday classifying that pitch as a changeup?  I understand Oliver Perez mostly sucks this year.  It seems like pitch selections like this is the main reason, and I don’t see how they didn’t have him working on this while he was in rehab, or how they promoted him again without fixing it.

I’m no Pitch F/X expert, but I know that Perez should be throwing this pitch slower.  He throws his fastball around 88-89, which you hope would build up over time, but regardless, you have to throw the changeup no higher than 80mph if this is the case.  He does have a slider that’s in the 70s for the offspeed part of his game, but he’s stopped throwing the curve entirely this year.

Oliver’s biggest problem does not seem to be his velocity, although you would like that to be higher.  His mechanics have never been good, which accounts for a lot of fluctuation at times in his pitches and may be the cause of that missing 2mph on his fastball.  Still, the biggest issue here seems to be pitch selection and game plan.  We know he’s billed as a head case, but I’m sure those accounts are exaggerated.  What he should’ve been working on is selecting his pitches better and setting up hitters.  If he’s capable of throwing so many pitches, slider, curveball, fastball, 4-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter, he’s capable of setting up hitters to look foolish.  He’s got enough command of those pitches that he can keep batters from sitting on the 88mph fastball.

It’s not enough to just say he’s a lost cause and dismiss him.  You can’t excuse Dan Warthen or Rod Barajas because Ollie’s a head case.  He’s had success before, and coaching/selection is their job.  How is Oliver Perez still doing things like throwing a fastball and changeup at the same speed to the same batter?  Am I missing something?  If you’ve got some advanced knowledge of pitching/pitches that you can share, please pass it along.  I find it hard to believe that gameday/fangraphs is just guessing at what pitches he’s throwing or that he’s throwing them by accident.

Posted on

What Joe Benigno Will Talk About Today

Today will be non-stop “The Mets have no grit” type discussions.  The people that don’t pay attention and think Beltran is soft will come out of the woodwork.  The clubhouse divide comments will come back.  (Michael Kay actually took care of that already today, thanks..) Overly dramatic, pessimistic Mets fans will be all over these things.  There is usually Yankees praise involved.  I can pretty much predict Joe Benigno’s show from 2-6:30 on WFAN tomorrow.

“Write it down, the Yankees are going to go out and get Roy Oswalt.  After seeing Hughes take a step back last night, and Pettitte on the DL, there is no way, NO WAY bro, that the Yankees don’t get this guy.  And what will the Mets do? Nothing.  What a pathetic game last night.  I don’t care what the numbers say, Beltran needs to sit down until he’s up to speed.  They made a mistake bringing this guy back so fast.  I know Francoeur isn’t hitting but he’s too valuable as a leader to mess with the chemistry.  And no one else is hitting anyway!  At least Francoeur you know you’re getting good defense out there.  I really think the Mets made a mistake bringing Castillo and Oliver Perez, and don’t get me started on this bum who should be pitching for Japan right now or something.  All we heard about was how good the chemistry was on this team and then you throw these malcontents back into the mix and look what happens!   And what is Omar doing?  Will you make a trade Omar? What are you waiting for?!”

Posted on

The Oliver Perez Situation and the 24 Man Roster

The Oliver Perez Situation and the 24 Man Roster.

 

Oliver Perez will not go to the minors.  I know most of us think he probably should, and some irrationally want him released, but if he’s not going to go the Mets need to figure out how to proceed.

 

Burying him in the bullpen is not a recipe for success or a solution.  This is systematic of the problem that Omar and Jerry created with how this roster is constructed.  You could call it managing scared, or managing not to lose.  Putting him the bullpen and not addressing the reason he’s there in the first place is basically playing with a 24 man roster.

 

I want to clarify here that I’m not excusing Oliver Perez here.  He’s pitched poorly, failed to execute his pitches, lost his velocity, and is actively hurting the team by refusing to go to the minors to get it straightened out. 

 

Oliver Perez is talented.  He has ability to throw the baseball and get guys out, and win baseball games.  He did this the last year he was healthy, in 2008.  He did it the year before that, in 2007.  His greatest success was with Peterson, and he continued that for a period after Peterson left.  He has steadily declined the longer Warthen was the one guiding him, including this year when new mechanics seem to have sapped not only his control, but his velocity.   There were times this year when Perez was throwing four pitches, at four different speeds, and was able to throw them for strikes.  Maybe he just hasn’t had enough time to get a handle on this new way of pitching, maybe just a mere 1-2 mph on the fastball would make a world of difference.  This is not something I, or anyone else, can figure out from the other side of the television set.

 

So what is Dan Warthen doing?  Has he buried Perez in the bullpen and doesn’t know what to do with him? Is he actively working on getting Perez to be better with those strikes?  Tinkering with his mechanics so he’s more comfortable?  To me, it’s always seemed like Perez has lacked a fundamental understanding of pitching, of when to throw strikes and when to throw balls, on when to go for a strikeout, and when to pitch to contact.  These are things that can be taught, if you could get through to Perez, and I don’t feel like Dan Warthen is.  Coupled with this is John Maine, who tried and failed to pitch the way Warthen thought he should.  When John Maine went back to what he was most comfortable with, he was successful more often than not. 

 

I see no pitchers that have actively gotten better since Dan Warthen has been the pitching coach.  No reclamation projects, no continued bouts of success.  Whatever Dan Warthen brings to the table, it doesn’t appear to be in the best interest of the Mets pitchers.  Oliver Perez, for better or worse, is here with the Mets.  He’s not going to take a demotion, and that means the Mets need to find the tools to get the most out of him.

Posted on

Simple Changes Omar Minaya Needs to Make to the Mets

The Mets are a good team.  They’ve got a lot of good players, lots of character, and have a real chance at going far this season.  However, they could be better. There are some very simple things Omar Minaya can do that will make the Mets a better team.

Fixing Oliver Perez is one of the most popular discussions these days.  This one obviously isn’t as black and white.  Where has his velocity gone for instance?  Oliver Perez, unlike most pitchers, is a guy that need some guidance and oversight.  Manuel and Warthen seem to be two of the worst guys to provide this, choosing instead to give up on him rather then try to help.  Maybe they don’t know what to do, which would actually be worse.  Regardless, Oliver Perez has the talent to be a good pitcher.  Someone needs to grow a brain and figure out how to proceed in this regard.   There have been signs, even this year, that he can be very solid..

Replace Frank Catalanotto on the roster.  Even though his failure is over a very small sample size, his upside isn’t exactly that of a superb pinch hitter.  Failure is still failure, and there are dozens of decent replacements to his position on the roster.  Right now he almost never plays the field anyway, so you don’t even need an awesome defender to replace him.  Nick Evans, Chris Carter, Mike Hessman all seem like suitable replacements.

Gary Matthews Junior.  He’s had more at bats than Frank, and has gotten more than a fair chances worth of starts to prove that he can be worthwhile.  He’s failed at just about every opportunity.  It’s a shame Manuel ever chose to start him over Pagan, who’s hit right around .300 for his Mets career.  The major reason cited for keeping him is that he can play center field.  (Besides the somewhat undefinable ‘experience’ factor that Manuel always throws out there)  Pagan is just fine, so do we really need to have a legitimate center fielder to  back him up?  If so, you’ve got guys like Jason Pridie and Jesus Feliciano in the minors.  If not, then just go with Pagan full time and on the rare day he gets a day off, both Frenchy and Bay know what to do in center field for one game, even if it’s not ideal defensively.  This opens up the possibility to any corner outfielder as a backup.

Jenrry Mejia.  I’ve been semi-supportive of the idea to keep him up in the majors if he can help the team win.  However, he’s struggled at times and it only seems to  be hurting his development of his other pitches.  The bullpen has been pretty good, and since starting pitchers are so much more valuable, it’s time to send Mejia back down to the minors to work on being that starting pitcher.

Fernando Tatis is another player that doesn’t seem to have much value.   His best value is his ability to play multiple positions adequately, but the Mets aren’t in any great need in that regard.  Bay and Francoeur play basically all the time, as does David Wright.  Cora’s got 2B.  Ike Davis could probably do with a day or two off occasionally if he hits an extended rough patch, but the Mets have plenty of adequate 1B guys that can fill Tatis’ role better than him.  When Daniel Murphy is fully healed I think he’d be a much better guy to play the role.  He’s younger, has much power, and is a better defender.  He’s got no real spot to play on this team, and right now doesn’t have a ton of value.  If he could be a super-utility guy on this team, the Mets could probably get something of value for him in the off season.  No one else even wanted Tatis last off season, so he basically has zero value on or off this team.

Fire Jerry Manuel, Dan Warthen, and Howard Johnson.  It’s hard for fans, especially on the outside, to evaluate what role these types of guys have.  It’s pretty obvious Manuel does not know how to handle a  baseball team, from wearing out bullpens, to giving up outs while down runs late in games, to playing guys out of position.  He seems to undermine his players to the media, and always seems to show no faith or confidence in his players that need it, excepting washed up veterans who he plays way too much for some reason.  It’s not an easy situation replacing a manager and finding a suitable replacement.  They screwed it up last time they went through this, and they’re still paying for it, but it’s something that could definitely help this team.

Dan Warthen and Howard Johnson may be easier.  They each seem to have had some marginal success with some players, but for the most part the bullpen and starters have underperformed under Warthen, and excepting Pagan and Francoeur, no player has really hit their career numbers or better with Johnson.  It may be time for a fresh perspective on all this, and there is no time like the present.

Not all of these need to be done.  There are different solutions to the problems I’ve presented, and some of the problems might not be as dire as they seem to me.  However, all good teams make adjustments to the roster, and the Mets have reached the point where it’s time to cull some dead weight, and give some new guys a chance.  Hopefully Omar is already discussing which moves he should make for the upcoming games.