Oliver Perez’s “Changeup”
Isn’t this changeup, by definition, not a changeup?
This changeup defies its definition
And that seems to be the crux of the problem with Oliver Perez. How is gameday classifying that pitch as a changeup? I understand Oliver Perez mostly sucks this year. It seems like pitch selections like this is the main reason, and I don’t see how they didn’t have him working on this while he was in rehab, or how they promoted him again without fixing it.
I’m no Pitch F/X expert, but I know that Perez should be throwing this pitch slower. He throws his fastball around 88-89, which you hope would build up over time, but regardless, you have to throw the changeup no higher than 80mph if this is the case. He does have a slider that’s in the 70s for the offspeed part of his game, but he’s stopped throwing the curve entirely this year.
Oliver’s biggest problem does not seem to be his velocity, although you would like that to be higher. His mechanics have never been good, which accounts for a lot of fluctuation at times in his pitches and may be the cause of that missing 2mph on his fastball. Still, the biggest issue here seems to be pitch selection and game plan. We know he’s billed as a head case, but I’m sure those accounts are exaggerated. What he should’ve been working on is selecting his pitches better and setting up hitters. If he’s capable of throwing so many pitches, slider, curveball, fastball, 4-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter, he’s capable of setting up hitters to look foolish. He’s got enough command of those pitches that he can keep batters from sitting on the 88mph fastball.
It’s not enough to just say he’s a lost cause and dismiss him. You can’t excuse Dan Warthen or Rod Barajas because Ollie’s a head case. He’s had success before, and coaching/selection is their job. How is Oliver Perez still doing things like throwing a fastball and changeup at the same speed to the same batter? Am I missing something? If you’ve got some advanced knowledge of pitching/pitches that you can share, please pass it along. I find it hard to believe that gameday/fangraphs is just guessing at what pitches he’s throwing or that he’s throwing them by accident.
Tags: Baseball, changeup, cutter, dan warthen, fastball, headcase, Mets, New York Mets, Oliver Perez, ollie, perez, pitch fx, pitch selection, Pitching, rod barajas
What Joe Benigno Will Talk About Today
Today will be non-stop “The Mets have no grit” type discussions. The people that don’t pay attention and think Beltran is soft will come out of the woodwork. The clubhouse divide comments will come back. (Michael Kay actually took care of that already today, thanks..) Overly dramatic, pessimistic Mets fans will be all over these things. There is usually Yankees praise involved. I can pretty much predict Joe Benigno’s show from 2-6:30 on WFAN tomorrow.
“Write it down, the Yankees are going to go out and get Roy Oswalt. After seeing Hughes take a step back last night, and Pettitte on the DL, there is no way, NO WAY bro, that the Yankees don’t get this guy. And what will the Mets do? Nothing. What a pathetic game last night. I don’t care what the numbers say, Beltran needs to sit down until he’s up to speed. They made a mistake bringing this guy back so fast. I know Francoeur isn’t hitting but he’s too valuable as a leader to mess with the chemistry. And no one else is hitting anyway! At least Francoeur you know you’re getting good defense out there. I really think the Mets made a mistake bringing Castillo and Oliver Perez, and don’t get me started on this bum who should be pitching for Japan right now or something. All we heard about was how good the chemistry was on this team and then you throw these malcontents back into the mix and look what happens! And what is Omar doing? Will you make a trade Omar? What are you waiting for?!”
Tags: Baseball, baseball clubhouse, Carlos Beltran, chemistry, clubhouse chemistry, clutch, grit, guts, heart, jeff francoeur, joe benigno, Mets, michael kay, New York Mets, Oliver Perez, Omar Minaya, roy oswalt, wfan, Yankees
The Oliver Perez Situation and the 24 Man Roster
The Oliver Perez Situation and the 24 Man Roster.
Oliver Perez will not go to the minors. I know most of us think he probably should, and some irrationally want him released, but if he’s not going to go the Mets need to figure out how to proceed.
Burying him in the bullpen is not a recipe for success or a solution. This is systematic of the problem that Omar and Jerry created with how this roster is constructed. You could call it managing scared, or managing not to lose. Putting him the bullpen and not addressing the reason he’s there in the first place is basically playing with a 24 man roster.
I want to clarify here that I’m not excusing Oliver Perez here. He’s pitched poorly, failed to execute his pitches, lost his velocity, and is actively hurting the team by refusing to go to the minors to get it straightened out.
Oliver Perez is talented. He has ability to throw the baseball and get guys out, and win baseball games. He did this the last year he was healthy, in 2008. He did it the year before that, in 2007. His greatest success was with Peterson, and he continued that for a period after Peterson left. He has steadily declined the longer Warthen was the one guiding him, including this year when new mechanics seem to have sapped not only his control, but his velocity. There were times this year when Perez was throwing four pitches, at four different speeds, and was able to throw them for strikes. Maybe he just hasn’t had enough time to get a handle on this new way of pitching, maybe just a mere 1-2 mph on the fastball would make a world of difference. This is not something I, or anyone else, can figure out from the other side of the television set.
So what is Dan Warthen doing? Has he buried Perez in the bullpen and doesn’t know what to do with him? Is he actively working on getting Perez to be better with those strikes? Tinkering with his mechanics so he’s more comfortable? To me, it’s always seemed like Perez has lacked a fundamental understanding of pitching, of when to throw strikes and when to throw balls, on when to go for a strikeout, and when to pitch to contact. These are things that can be taught, if you could get through to Perez, and I don’t feel like Dan Warthen is. Coupled with this is John Maine, who tried and failed to pitch the way Warthen thought he should. When John Maine went back to what he was most comfortable with, he was successful more often than not.
I see no pitchers that have actively gotten better since Dan Warthen has been the pitching coach. No reclamation projects, no continued bouts of success. Whatever Dan Warthen brings to the table, it doesn’t appear to be in the best interest of the Mets pitchers. Oliver Perez, for better or worse, is here with the Mets. He’s not going to take a demotion, and that means the Mets need to find the tools to get the most out of him.
Tags: dan warthen, fire dan warthen, fire jerry manuel, fire manuel, Mets, New York Mets, Oliver Perez, Pitching, pitching coach, success
Simple Changes Omar Minaya Needs to Make to the Mets
The Mets are a good team. They’ve got a lot of good players, lots of character, and have a real chance at going far this season. However, they could be better. There are some very simple things Omar Minaya can do that will make the Mets a better team.
Fixing Oliver Perez is one of the most popular discussions these days. This one obviously isn’t as black and white. Where has his velocity gone for instance? Oliver Perez, unlike most pitchers, is a guy that need some guidance and oversight. Manuel and Warthen seem to be two of the worst guys to provide this, choosing instead to give up on him rather then try to help. Maybe they don’t know what to do, which would actually be worse. Regardless, Oliver Perez has the talent to be a good pitcher. Someone needs to grow a brain and figure out how to proceed in this regard. There have been signs, even this year, that he can be very solid..
Replace Frank Catalanotto on the roster. Even though his failure is over a very small sample size, his upside isn’t exactly that of a superb pinch hitter. Failure is still failure, and there are dozens of decent replacements to his position on the roster. Right now he almost never plays the field anyway, so you don’t even need an awesome defender to replace him. Nick Evans, Chris Carter, Mike Hessman all seem like suitable replacements.
Gary Matthews Junior. He’s had more at bats than Frank, and has gotten more than a fair chances worth of starts to prove that he can be worthwhile. He’s failed at just about every opportunity. It’s a shame Manuel ever chose to start him over Pagan, who’s hit right around .300 for his Mets career. The major reason cited for keeping him is that he can play center field. (Besides the somewhat undefinable ‘experience’ factor that Manuel always throws out there) Pagan is just fine, so do we really need to have a legitimate center fielder to back him up? If so, you’ve got guys like Jason Pridie and Jesus Feliciano in the minors. If not, then just go with Pagan full time and on the rare day he gets a day off, both Frenchy and Bay know what to do in center field for one game, even if it’s not ideal defensively. This opens up the possibility to any corner outfielder as a backup.
Jenrry Mejia. I’ve been semi-supportive of the idea to keep him up in the majors if he can help the team win. However, he’s struggled at times and it only seems to be hurting his development of his other pitches. The bullpen has been pretty good, and since starting pitchers are so much more valuable, it’s time to send Mejia back down to the minors to work on being that starting pitcher.
Fernando Tatis is another player that doesn’t seem to have much value. His best value is his ability to play multiple positions adequately, but the Mets aren’t in any great need in that regard. Bay and Francoeur play basically all the time, as does David Wright. Cora’s got 2B. Ike Davis could probably do with a day or two off occasionally if he hits an extended rough patch, but the Mets have plenty of adequate 1B guys that can fill Tatis’ role better than him. When Daniel Murphy is fully healed I think he’d be a much better guy to play the role. He’s younger, has much power, and is a better defender. He’s got no real spot to play on this team, and right now doesn’t have a ton of value. If he could be a super-utility guy on this team, the Mets could probably get something of value for him in the off season. No one else even wanted Tatis last off season, so he basically has zero value on or off this team.
Fire Jerry Manuel, Dan Warthen, and Howard Johnson. It’s hard for fans, especially on the outside, to evaluate what role these types of guys have. It’s pretty obvious Manuel does not know how to handle a baseball team, from wearing out bullpens, to giving up outs while down runs late in games, to playing guys out of position. He seems to undermine his players to the media, and always seems to show no faith or confidence in his players that need it, excepting washed up veterans who he plays way too much for some reason. It’s not an easy situation replacing a manager and finding a suitable replacement. They screwed it up last time they went through this, and they’re still paying for it, but it’s something that could definitely help this team.
Dan Warthen and Howard Johnson may be easier. They each seem to have had some marginal success with some players, but for the most part the bullpen and starters have underperformed under Warthen, and excepting Pagan and Francoeur, no player has really hit their career numbers or better with Johnson. It may be time for a fresh perspective on all this, and there is no time like the present.
Not all of these need to be done. There are different solutions to the problems I’ve presented, and some of the problems might not be as dire as they seem to me. However, all good teams make adjustments to the roster, and the Mets have reached the point where it’s time to cull some dead weight, and give some new guys a chance. Hopefully Omar is already discussing which moves he should make for the upcoming games.
Tags: Baseball, division, fernando tatis, fire jerry, fire jerry manuel, fire manuel, frank catalanotto, gary matthews jr, Good Team, jenrry mejia, jerry manuel, Mets, New York Mets, NL East, Oliver Perez, Omar Minaya, roster changes, roster shake up
Upcoming Expections For The Mets
I understand the season has been hurtful so far. I also understand that even the worst teams in baseball don’t play this badly, and that they will win more games. So how do we shake this feeling of doom?
I’m pretty confident in Pelfrey throwing a good game tonight. I think what he worked on this Spring is going to help a lot, he’s getting less distracted on the mound, and has that cocky confidence that this team needs.
You never know with Perez, and I worry that the stupid tinkering that Warthen did with Maine was also a failure for Perez, but I think the Mets will have a chance to win the game tomorrow when he pitches.
Santana is due to bounce back and win one on Saturday. He’s Johan Santana after all.
Then Maine, who I think gets a huge boost being out from under Warthen’s shackles. Doesn’t mean he’ll be successful though, especially the first time going back to what’s worked for him, but the numbers are there if you choose to believe. (those numbers being a 4-1 2.75 ERA May last year before surgery in June. Those numbers being that he was hitting 93 last year, and was 91-92 in the return from surgery in September) I’m hoping being able to be comfortable will be like a weight off his shoulder and he’ll do just fine. I’m certainly not ready to believe Maine’s career is over.
Maybe they drop one of those, which would put them at 5-7. Then they go home for a 10 game home stand where if they go 6-4 they’re back at .500 and go to Philadelphia, a park the Mets love to hit in with hopefully the offense finally clicking, and knock the ball, and 2009, out of the park.
That’s the formula to shake these bad feelings away. If the Mets can get to Philadelphia near .500 and play well there against an injured Phillies team and assert, even if it’s just for one series, that they’re the better team it will go a long way to returning the confidence to this team, and to it’s fans.
Tags: attitude, Baseball, Confidence, dan warthen, fire manuel, fire warthen, Johan Santana, John Maine, Mets, Mike Pelfrey, mop, New York Mets, Oliver Perez, optimism, phillies suck, recipe for success, ya gotta believe
More Pressure For a Quick Start
It’s not just Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya that have to worry about fast starts to the season or their jobs being in jeopardy. The same case could be made for Jeff Francoeur,
Daniel Murphy, and Rod Barajas. The way Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, and Josh Thole have been playing in a way this spring that makes you suspect they’ll be knocking at the door to Citi Field sooner rather than later.
With Reyes possibly being out some, or all, of April the pressure on the starting pitching has just doubled. The most recent report on April suggests that he may be back closer to mid April, but that’s still a rough estimate.
We’ve known for a while that the season was going to hinge on the starting pitching. The offense was projected to be one of the top in the league, and surely would’ve won some games on it’s own even when the pitching struggled. With Reyes and Beltran out, they may not have that cushion for a while, but this doesn’t mean the Mets are doomed to a 9-13 type record to start the season.
The fast start is more important than ever, and if Maine, Perez, and Pelfrey can have a good month of April the Mets will still win games. We all know they’re each capable of pitching good games. It was expected before the season that they could definitely pitch competitively and keep us in games, but now they may be pressured to actually win the games. Instead of quality start performances and limiting the opponents to three runs over six innings, stepping up and going seven innings and occasionally limiting the other teams to merely one or two runs becomes important to the Mets early success.
This isn’t to say the Mets lineup is useless, and that they won’t occasionally put up a crooked number, but Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are two of the most irreplaceable players in the game today. The season is never won and lost in April, but if the pitching can step up and win more games than they lose, not only will it minimize the damage caused by losing Reyes and Beltran, it will set them up nicely once they return.
This post, and vibrant discussion about it, also featured on The Real Dirty Mets Blog.
Tags: Baseball, Carlos Beltran, daniel murphy, fast start, fernando martinez, fire jerry manuel, fire manuel, ike davis, jeff francoeur, jerry manuel, John Maine, Jose Reyes, josh thole, Mets, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, rod barajas
Reyes Wants You
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| From MetsStuff |
Jose Reyes wants me to cut work on Wednesday to go to the Mets game in the afternoon. Now, he must not realize by how much he’s seen me in the stands that I’m currently unemployed, but I feel obliged to obey; I’ll be at the game Wednesday afternoon. And who wouldn’t want to be given how the Mets are playing? The last five games they won, they won at home, and against Pennsylvania. Winning front and center in front of Mets fans has, and will, go a long way towards making Citi Field home, and making these fans fall back in love with this team.
I was at the game at Saturday, and it was nice and comfortable being at what amounted to a laugher. I was more amused than annoyed at Maholm’s home run 20 feet to my right. I debated things like leaving Ken in to hit and pitch three innings so he could get the save, or if they should finally get Stokes some work (as they did), instead of if they should waste outs bunting or try to steal a base to try to get the lead. It was utterly enjoyable.
Also enjoyable were our seats. Section 103, row 4, seats 1-5. The seats were not completely unreasonable at $40 face value. They turned out to be (as seats 1-8 are behind the camera well in right field) front row seats by the right field foul pole. There were negatives, as we couldn’t really see the scoreboard behind the Pepsi Porch above us, and seats 1,2 and 3 had to contend with the foul pole in front of them, which led to a lot of leaning back and forth the whole game. However, there were plenty of plusses from the perspective. A couple of people in our section started really getting on the RF Brandon Moss. We had a really good view of all plays in RF, including Wright’s triple that Moss missed, and Sheffield’s sliding catch. We also had a very good view of plays at first base. We got to see all the flies to RF arc towards us, and got to judge fair or foul, see them bounce, see the RF range over to make the catch, or miss it.
Tonight’s a big game, not for the Mets necessarily, but for Omar. The chatter is all going to be about how he failed to get Derek Lowe by giving him extra money/years that probably weren’t wise. Oliver Perez struggled, and Lowe succeeded. If the Mets rough up Lowe, it won’t look as lopsided a decision, whereas if they lose, it’ll be all about how Minaya made a mistake. Luckily, Johan Santana is on the mound, and no one doubts that he’s better than either of ‘em. Here’s hoping for 8 in a row.
Tags: blowout, citi field seats, derek lowe, good feelings, laugher, Mets, Oliver Perez, Omar Minaya, play hookey, wednesday, winning streak
Big Week Coming Up
Who would’ve predicted a split this weekend? The Philadelphia Phillies played pretty badly, but the Mets had just enough mistakes to lose the game Saturday. That’s pretty much been the Phillies M.O. The past three years; play average-good baseball, and wait for the Mets to cough it up.
The real story is the continuing struggle of Oliver Perez. I really thought this guy would figure it out after a rough spring spent not doing what he should’ve been doing. Maybe it’s going to take more than that, or maybe Dan Warthen just doesn’t know what to do. It looks like he’ll find himself into the minor leagues in some capacity, and hopefully some working on fundamentals, and just working, will help him. He hasn’t even been to ‘bad Ollie’ form, which leads me to believe it’s something else. I expect him to get right and return and have a killer second half. In the meantime…Tim Redding?
I’d like to see the Mets go out tonight and beat on the Braves, getting ready to take down the Phillies at home at Citi Field on Wednesday and Thursday. I look forward to seeing Mike Pelfrey further improve in person on Thursday. It’ll be a big week for the Mets.
Manuel’s ‘ultimatum’
Manuel’s ‘ultimatum’ to the pitching staff is basically a case of buying low.
He knows they are better than this, and he also knows Redding could be pretty close to coming back and taking Livan’s spot anyway. So he makes this statement about one more time through the rotation and then there will be changes, but he’s really just stating the obvious. He’s taking a bet that the pitching will be better and/or Omar will make a change with the 5th starter. If the pitching gets better, he looks like he got them going, and if they don’t, likely a change will be happening anyway, and he can take credit for it. This is how he’s been winning people over since he’s been in charge.
Anyone watching these games can clearly see that the starting rotation is struggling, but also that they’re like to get better. Perez was reported to have not done what he was supposed to do in Spring Training while at the World Baseball Classic. So he wasn’t quite ‘ready’ when the season came. It’s now three starts later. He hasn’t looked real good, but there have been small signs between a raise in velocity to a couple of key strikeouts that could give you hope if you’re looking for it.
Maine was coming off an injury. I thought it would take him a couple of starts to get going, given the longer layoff from pitching in real games. He’s had some bad moments, but some good ones too. I suspect he’ll start giving some worthwhile performances soon.
Pelfrey is probably what I’d call the least worrisome. He had some tendinitis so they skipped a start, so he’s had even less. He really stepped it up last year, and It’ll probably take him a little while to start getting back to that point, and to adjust to any scouting adjustments made to him. He’s always shown promise, and I see no reason to think he won’t have a good year.
Livan however, might be more of an issue. Besides that Manuel routinely comes out and basically says he has no confidence in him, he doesn’t seem to have much left. He pitched well in the spring, but it looks like he’s getting by on a lot of trickery and smarts. Batters figure him out and he seems to crumble as he gets through the order a couple of times. Hopefully he can give us one more reasonable start, against the Marlins, and then maybe Redding will be available to get us a couple of good starts at least.
Another thing to note is Sheffield; he still appears to be done. We talked about how it was a win-win situation for the Mets, but it really isn’t. It took at-bats away from Church when he was hot. It’s taking at-bats away from Castillo when he’s hot by way of Tatis not having any fill-in time in the outfield and having to find him a place to play. Barring a sudden turn around, I think the Sheffield experiment should be terminated. However, Manuel is playing him again today. A day after getting swept, sitting Murphy another day. Who’s more likely to get a hit? Who’s more likely to score runs for Santana? Who’s more likely to benefit from a day in LF and will be here all year? Hint: It’s not Gary Sheffield.
Tags: fire manuel, gary sheffield, John Maine, line ups, livan hernandez, Mets, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, redding, sure bet, ultimatum
First Thoughts
Thoughts after the first series.
I like how this team looks, even if Oliver Perez seems to still be three weeks behind and in Spring Training mode. They really lit him up by the second time through the lineup. I’m not worried though, I just think he really did get behind by pitching in the WBC without the oversight to stay in shape. Give him another three weeks with the Mets and I think we’ll see a pretty impressive post-April record for Perez.
The offense looks good, despite people trying to read into every failed opportunity with runners in scoring position. It’s going to be an awfully long season if you expect the Mets to hit .350 in those situations, every game. Sometimes it’ll be worse, and sometimes it’ll be better, but by the end of the season I suspect the numbers will be right around career averages and what not. Don’t worry about it right now, I’ve seen more good signs in this regard than bad ones.
The bullpen does in fact look revamped, and I’m happy for that. It’s still early though, and our bullpen was fairly decent in April last year too, behind Billy Wagner’s scoreless inning streak.
Since Manuel vocalizes every fleeting though, it’s necessary to analyze actions to try to get an understanding of how he feels about players. So far I get the feeling he doesn’t like Castillo much, because if it were me, I’d get Castillo as many at-bats and as many opportunities to succeed prior to coming home, not sit him yesterday. I think he buys into the Church can’t hit lefties thing, since he pinch hit for him yesterday when he was 2/3. I’m not sure if he likes Anderson too much, or is trying to give him every opportunity to come through and prove he could deserve to stay prior to his impending release. I just can’t believe they’d get rid of O’Day instead, because that just doesn’t make sense. Quality, or at least performing, relief help is a lot harder to come by than what Marlon brings to the table.
I’m happy with 2-1 for now, but I think it’s important they win this series from the Marlins and come home above .500 with the clubhouse smelling of wins, not of mediocrity.
Tags: Baseball, bullpen, clutch hitting, first thoughts, Mets, Oliver Perez