Could This Be The Mets Final Test?
Could this be the final test for the Mets?
I hope it’s not, but if they fail it may mean the figurative end to their season. The next two weeks are very critical, and the first order of business is just flat out winning games. The Mets have played very well at home this year, and they’ve got three games against the tough Cardinals, and then three against the not so tough Diamondbacks. There can be no excuses: They have to win games. Omar’s job, provided he still has one, is to bring in reinforcements after that. The trading deadline is next weekend, and the Mets are in need of some help. No longer can they play waiting games or decide they don’t like the price. When you drop as many games in the standings as the Mets did, you no longer have the luxury of pretending you’re not desperate for help.
After the Diamondbacks the Mets again head on the road. It’s this road trip that could prove to be critical, as they face the Braves and the Phillies. The Braves have been amazing lately, and the Mets have been making just about every other ballpark look to them like Turner Field did around the turn of the century. By falling so far back, it’s become imperative that they make up ground by beating the competition in front of them. Losing and falling further behind could very well be a death blow.
The Mets have been extremely streaky this year and they really are much better than they’ve shown lately. If they take that streak and turn it into a hot stretch where they’re again a team that’s tough to beat, they could climb right back into this race. There is still a lot of baseball to be played and August could be a good month for them. After they play the division rivals on the road, they come home for the Rockies and the Phillies before going on a road trip that one would describe similarly to the Cleveland-Baltimore trip they took that they were successful on: they play the Astros and the Pirates. Another home stretch with the Marlins and the Astros provides plenty of time to fight their way back into this race before facing the Braves again at the end of the month.
Can the Mets ace this next test and fight their way back into relevancy again? I don’t know. Neither answer would surprise me, but I’m certain they’re capable of it. They often say you need to get hot at the right time and if the Mets can capitalize on that by beating up on the division rivals, as the Phillies did in 2007, they can certainly win this division.
Tags: Atlanta Braves, Baseball, division, getting hot, homestand, Mets, mets cardinals, mets test, New York Mets, NL East, offense, Omar Minaya, Philadelphia Phillies, reinforcements, road trip, season, test, winning streak
What Joe Benigno Will Talk About Today
Today will be non-stop “The Mets have no grit” type discussions. The people that don’t pay attention and think Beltran is soft will come out of the woodwork. The clubhouse divide comments will come back. (Michael Kay actually took care of that already today, thanks..) Overly dramatic, pessimistic Mets fans will be all over these things. There is usually Yankees praise involved. I can pretty much predict Joe Benigno’s show from 2-6:30 on WFAN tomorrow.
“Write it down, the Yankees are going to go out and get Roy Oswalt. After seeing Hughes take a step back last night, and Pettitte on the DL, there is no way, NO WAY bro, that the Yankees don’t get this guy. And what will the Mets do? Nothing. What a pathetic game last night. I don’t care what the numbers say, Beltran needs to sit down until he’s up to speed. They made a mistake bringing this guy back so fast. I know Francoeur isn’t hitting but he’s too valuable as a leader to mess with the chemistry. And no one else is hitting anyway! At least Francoeur you know you’re getting good defense out there. I really think the Mets made a mistake bringing Castillo and Oliver Perez, and don’t get me started on this bum who should be pitching for Japan right now or something. All we heard about was how good the chemistry was on this team and then you throw these malcontents back into the mix and look what happens! And what is Omar doing? Will you make a trade Omar? What are you waiting for?!”
Tags: Baseball, baseball clubhouse, Carlos Beltran, chemistry, clubhouse chemistry, clutch, grit, guts, heart, jeff francoeur, joe benigno, Mets, michael kay, New York Mets, Oliver Perez, Omar Minaya, roy oswalt, wfan, Yankees
Is The Mets Road Trip Salvagable?
The Mets have not been playing good baseball lately. This poor play brings up debate and questions about what exactly the problems are. Is it an easy fix? Something that takes time, money, or trade?
Could it be the managing?
Maybe. Jerry Manuel is not a good manager. He’s operating as a lame-duck manager and as Steve Popper remarked today, A manager that everyone in the clubhouse suspects is not here for the long haul may lose a little authority in the dealing with long term situations such as standing up to Jose Reyes and being the final authority on if he is in the lineup. The flip side of this is the question of whether Manuel’s lack of authority in such situations is what led to his job security being as tenous as it is in the first place.
Manuel seems inept at managing road games or close games, often burning outs with useless bunts, refusing to use his best pitchers on the road or burning through the bullpen at record pace. Still, the Mets have the talent and ability to win games, and if enough games are going to come down to the point where they are won or lost on a misguided bunt call in the third inning, the Mets probably won’t win enough games for it to matter.
Is it the offense?
Some fans are thinking so. Some seem to have given up on Beltran and Bay, and point out that the pitching has rarely kept the Mets out of games. Surely if players like Bay continue to underperform, the Mets will not win. However it’s probably safer to say Jason Bay will hit more like the 1000 games before he became a Met, than the 90 or so this year. Beltran has returned, one of the most talented players in the game, and while we’re still not sure what effect the brace and lingering bone bruises are going to have on his overall play it’s safe to say he’s a solid upgrade over Jeff Francoeur. Castillo will return soon and put up a respectable OBP that provides more run scoring opportunities. Reyes will be back in the lineup and allow us to send Tejada back to Buffalo for more seasoning. It’s easy to get worked up over slumps and scoring droughts, but the Mets offense overall is pretty good.
How about the pitching?
Behind Johan, one of the best second half pitchers ever, the Mets currently have Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey and Takahashi. Dickey has been wonderful, and Niese is contributing as well. Mike Pelfrey’s struggling with a little bit of a slump, but he’ll fight out of it and win games for the Mets in the second half. Takahashi has struggled, looking more suited for a long relief type role out of the bullpen. This would be the obvious place to upgrade on the team, and rumors are that Omar is indeed looking for something that won’t cost the farm, but I’m not convinced the pitching is keeping the Mets out of games. In fact they’ve been in most games, rarely getting blown out or finding themselves down six runs in the seventh inning. Takahashi has had some bad starts, but he’s also had some good ones. Johan even had a couple of bad starts in the first half.
Injuries.
The Mets injuries, coupled with some slumps, are what’s causing the recent struggles. Some of the other categories may be making it worse such as Jason Bay slumping or Takahashi having a poor outing, but overall it’s the injury to Luis Castillo forcing us to play lesser or unready players in Cora and Tejada. It’s Reyes slow recovery from the strained oblique. It’s Beltrans bone bruises keeping him out the entire first half. Ike Davis went through a typical rookie slump, but after two home runs last night may be coming out of it. You can’t get much worse than Rod Barajas lately, and he may be forcing Jerry’s hand in using Thole more, who has done nothing but hit while he’s been on the Mets.
It’s easy to overreact to slumps and scoring droughts, but the Mets have the talent to make the playoffs this year. There is a lot of time left, including plenty of games left against the division leading Braves. Destiny is in their own hands. Beltran is getting up to speed, Jose Reyes is supposedly just about recovered, and Luis Castillo is set to return by next weekend. Johan’s a second half pitcher, more help may be on the way, and Ike Davis may rebound from his first major slump a better player. The second half of the season is going to be very exciting, and I can’t wait.
Tags: Baseball, Carlos Beltran, fire jerry manuel, fire manuel, injuries, jason bay, jerry manuel, managing, Mets, mets woes, New York Mets, offense, Omar Minaya, Pitching, Pitching Depth, pitching upgrade, second half, slumps, trades
Time for a Mental Break
I need a mental break from the Mets. They’re tiring. There are too many subtle questions: What is Warthen doing with Perez and Maine and why has the bullpen fallen apart? Why did Frankie Rodriguez choose that pitch to throw on 0-2 to Eckstein? Is Manuel capable of managing this team correctly? Will David Wright stop striking out? Will any of the players hit with any consistency or even approach career type years? Will Omar get another starting pitcher, and will he fix the bench?
After watching K-Rod blow it, and then Manuel leave in Valdes to face five batters and only retire the one that was a bunt and give up the grand slam to the only legitimately scary batter in the lineup has worn me out. While I certainly believe this team is capable of adjusting and getting better and performing and even winning, right now I’m just worn down mentally. This happens to me once or twice a season, and I’m going to take the weekend to just relax and not watch the Mets. I hate watching the Marlins anyway, as I feel they are an embarrassment to the sport with the way they run the franchise.
Logically, the Mets should have an axe to grind with the Marlins after getting swept by them a couple of weeks ago and they’re playing at home where they actually win. Then they face the Padres, who they also should want to pummel a bit, and they’ll have Santana and Pelfrey in that series again. So really they should do well in the upcoming games, and then they go face two of the worst teams in the American League in Cleveland and Baltimore. Couple this with some roster moves that Omar, Manuel, and Perez need to make and maybe things will be looking up for the Mets soon, but for now I need a mentally refreshing weekend.
Tags: Baseball, fire manuel, home stand, jerry manuel, mental break, Mets, mets road record, New York Mets, NL East, Omar Minaya, road record, tired, winning teams, worn down
Simple Changes Omar Minaya Needs to Make to the Mets
The Mets are a good team. They’ve got a lot of good players, lots of character, and have a real chance at going far this season. However, they could be better. There are some very simple things Omar Minaya can do that will make the Mets a better team.
Fixing Oliver Perez is one of the most popular discussions these days. This one obviously isn’t as black and white. Where has his velocity gone for instance? Oliver Perez, unlike most pitchers, is a guy that need some guidance and oversight. Manuel and Warthen seem to be two of the worst guys to provide this, choosing instead to give up on him rather then try to help. Maybe they don’t know what to do, which would actually be worse. Regardless, Oliver Perez has the talent to be a good pitcher. Someone needs to grow a brain and figure out how to proceed in this regard. There have been signs, even this year, that he can be very solid..
Replace Frank Catalanotto on the roster. Even though his failure is over a very small sample size, his upside isn’t exactly that of a superb pinch hitter. Failure is still failure, and there are dozens of decent replacements to his position on the roster. Right now he almost never plays the field anyway, so you don’t even need an awesome defender to replace him. Nick Evans, Chris Carter, Mike Hessman all seem like suitable replacements.
Gary Matthews Junior. He’s had more at bats than Frank, and has gotten more than a fair chances worth of starts to prove that he can be worthwhile. He’s failed at just about every opportunity. It’s a shame Manuel ever chose to start him over Pagan, who’s hit right around .300 for his Mets career. The major reason cited for keeping him is that he can play center field. (Besides the somewhat undefinable ‘experience’ factor that Manuel always throws out there) Pagan is just fine, so do we really need to have a legitimate center fielder to back him up? If so, you’ve got guys like Jason Pridie and Jesus Feliciano in the minors. If not, then just go with Pagan full time and on the rare day he gets a day off, both Frenchy and Bay know what to do in center field for one game, even if it’s not ideal defensively. This opens up the possibility to any corner outfielder as a backup.
Jenrry Mejia. I’ve been semi-supportive of the idea to keep him up in the majors if he can help the team win. However, he’s struggled at times and it only seems to be hurting his development of his other pitches. The bullpen has been pretty good, and since starting pitchers are so much more valuable, it’s time to send Mejia back down to the minors to work on being that starting pitcher.
Fernando Tatis is another player that doesn’t seem to have much value. His best value is his ability to play multiple positions adequately, but the Mets aren’t in any great need in that regard. Bay and Francoeur play basically all the time, as does David Wright. Cora’s got 2B. Ike Davis could probably do with a day or two off occasionally if he hits an extended rough patch, but the Mets have plenty of adequate 1B guys that can fill Tatis’ role better than him. When Daniel Murphy is fully healed I think he’d be a much better guy to play the role. He’s younger, has much power, and is a better defender. He’s got no real spot to play on this team, and right now doesn’t have a ton of value. If he could be a super-utility guy on this team, the Mets could probably get something of value for him in the off season. No one else even wanted Tatis last off season, so he basically has zero value on or off this team.
Fire Jerry Manuel, Dan Warthen, and Howard Johnson. It’s hard for fans, especially on the outside, to evaluate what role these types of guys have. It’s pretty obvious Manuel does not know how to handle a baseball team, from wearing out bullpens, to giving up outs while down runs late in games, to playing guys out of position. He seems to undermine his players to the media, and always seems to show no faith or confidence in his players that need it, excepting washed up veterans who he plays way too much for some reason. It’s not an easy situation replacing a manager and finding a suitable replacement. They screwed it up last time they went through this, and they’re still paying for it, but it’s something that could definitely help this team.
Dan Warthen and Howard Johnson may be easier. They each seem to have had some marginal success with some players, but for the most part the bullpen and starters have underperformed under Warthen, and excepting Pagan and Francoeur, no player has really hit their career numbers or better with Johnson. It may be time for a fresh perspective on all this, and there is no time like the present.
Not all of these need to be done. There are different solutions to the problems I’ve presented, and some of the problems might not be as dire as they seem to me. However, all good teams make adjustments to the roster, and the Mets have reached the point where it’s time to cull some dead weight, and give some new guys a chance. Hopefully Omar is already discussing which moves he should make for the upcoming games.
Tags: Baseball, division, fernando tatis, fire jerry, fire jerry manuel, fire manuel, frank catalanotto, gary matthews jr, Good Team, jenrry mejia, jerry manuel, Mets, New York Mets, NL East, Oliver Perez, Omar Minaya, roster changes, roster shake up
Omar’s Advanced Statistical Analysis
“Mets GM Omar Minaya poses ideas to him, often via email, and Baumer will run the numbers to see if they’re true. He said he’s one of 8 or 10 people who can offer their two cents when a decision is being made, such as a trade or in free agency.”
Jenny Vrentas/The Star-Ledger is referring to Ben Baumer, the Mets statistical analyst. We’ve known the Mets use, as do most teams, advanced statistics in evaluations of players for trades and signings and even drafting. They hinted at it being one of the reasons they chose Jason Bay. It provided evidence that the free agent pitchers on the market this offseason were not worth it.
It’s worth noting that despite some criticism, the Mets do in fact use a variety of tools to evaluate players. I have plenty of issues with some of the popular advanced stats out there, from UZR to WAR to FIP. I’m working on a post that specifically outlines my concerns, but there is still value to looking at these numbers, especially to reinforce an opinion you might have on a player you haven’t seen that much of. Especially for a general manager of a baseball team.
For all the criticisms of Omar, and those fans that feel he just has to go before this team can win, this article suggests he might not be as clueless as you think.
Tags: advanced statistics, advanced stats, Baseball, ben vaumer, Mets, numbers, Omar Minaya, running numbers, sabermetric failings, sabermetrics, statistical analysis, statistics, stats
What I Expect From The Mets This Offseason
I listened to most of the interview with Omar Minaya and Jeff Wilpon yesterday on WFAN. I wish it had been with someone other than Mike Francesa who is very biased, and very amateurish, when it comes to the Mets. However Francesa is the guy that gets the ‘big’ guests due to reputation and seniority, so we have to deal with it. Here is a list of things I expect from the Mets going forward. Also a list of things Francesa should’ve asked. (He may have asked them at one point and I missed it, but not in the first hour.)
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| From 100409_Astros |
I expect the Mets to be big players in the quest for a big power bat. Probably in left field, unless a doable trade comes along for a guy like Adrian Gonzalez, which seems unlikely. Matt Holliday seems to be the best choice, hopefully he doesn’t stay with the Cardinals.
They’re committed to spending on what they feel will improve the team to make it competitive next year. This is the most important piece of news. They made no mention of a budget, a cap on spending, or any number. This doesn’t mean there isn’t one, but it also suggests they are flexible to get the job done.
They’ve already been discussing and planning, but obviously until teams and players exercise options after the World Series, you can’t know what’s going to be available for sure.
“You’re lowering ticket prices for season ticket holders. Will those ticket prices come down for game day sales? Will there be less gold level games as was reported?” The Mets have not offered season ticket holders a percent discount for buying all 81 games in the past. To me, this suggests that Ceaser Club Bronze, and Metropolitan/Baseline Box seats will be cheaper. These are the two areas they mentioned, and are probably the most overprice in terms of the cost to quality ratio.
They intend to add more Mets stuff to Citi Field. More memorabilia, a Hall of Fame, and naming stuff after prominent Mets.
Medically they’ve adjusted how they’re going to get information, and how they’re going to release it. Their excuses were a little bit weak, but as long as they’re aware that that was the problem. It was true that they listened to the Dodgers (or was it the Giants?) doctor when Reyes hurt himself on the road trip. I remembered commenting on it, wondering why the Mets were letting the opposing team decide whether their shortstop was ready to play. The problem was in the decision making in that they were soft on the severity of the injury, figuring that Reyes would be okay to play soon, and that taking him out of the lineup for a cross country flight to New York wasn’t needed.
Another question Francesa didn’t ask, or didn’t ask for clarification on: “I just heard Reyes is having the surgery. Will he be ready for Opening Day, 100%? Will he be full strength, full speed?” Instead, Francesa praised the doctors and the hospital, and went on to ask about other things.
It gives me faith that at least Omar knows what needs to be done. I just hope he’s aware of the little things that need to be done and not overlooked. I like Cora, but am not necessarily sold on him being the answer. I think it might make more sense to have power off the bench. The Mets don’t need to build a 300 home run team, I think they just need the threat of power to help scare pitchers a little bit.
Tags: Baseball, budget, Citi Field, free agents, injuries, jeff wilpon, Jose Reyes, matt holliday, Mets, mike francesa, miked up, offseason, Omar Minaya, wfan
Reyes Wants You
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| From MetsStuff |
Jose Reyes wants me to cut work on Wednesday to go to the Mets game in the afternoon. Now, he must not realize by how much he’s seen me in the stands that I’m currently unemployed, but I feel obliged to obey; I’ll be at the game Wednesday afternoon. And who wouldn’t want to be given how the Mets are playing? The last five games they won, they won at home, and against Pennsylvania. Winning front and center in front of Mets fans has, and will, go a long way towards making Citi Field home, and making these fans fall back in love with this team.
I was at the game at Saturday, and it was nice and comfortable being at what amounted to a laugher. I was more amused than annoyed at Maholm’s home run 20 feet to my right. I debated things like leaving Ken in to hit and pitch three innings so he could get the save, or if they should finally get Stokes some work (as they did), instead of if they should waste outs bunting or try to steal a base to try to get the lead. It was utterly enjoyable.
Also enjoyable were our seats. Section 103, row 4, seats 1-5. The seats were not completely unreasonable at $40 face value. They turned out to be (as seats 1-8 are behind the camera well in right field) front row seats by the right field foul pole. There were negatives, as we couldn’t really see the scoreboard behind the Pepsi Porch above us, and seats 1,2 and 3 had to contend with the foul pole in front of them, which led to a lot of leaning back and forth the whole game. However, there were plenty of plusses from the perspective. A couple of people in our section started really getting on the RF Brandon Moss. We had a really good view of all plays in RF, including Wright’s triple that Moss missed, and Sheffield’s sliding catch. We also had a very good view of plays at first base. We got to see all the flies to RF arc towards us, and got to judge fair or foul, see them bounce, see the RF range over to make the catch, or miss it.
Tonight’s a big game, not for the Mets necessarily, but for Omar. The chatter is all going to be about how he failed to get Derek Lowe by giving him extra money/years that probably weren’t wise. Oliver Perez struggled, and Lowe succeeded. If the Mets rough up Lowe, it won’t look as lopsided a decision, whereas if they lose, it’ll be all about how Minaya made a mistake. Luckily, Johan Santana is on the mound, and no one doubts that he’s better than either of ‘em. Here’s hoping for 8 in a row.
Tags: blowout, citi field seats, derek lowe, good feelings, laugher, Mets, Oliver Perez, Omar Minaya, play hookey, wednesday, winning streak
RyanHoward-Rod
I like my title, shame you won’t see that on the back pages of the Post.
K-Rod.
Pretty much the best closer in the game. At least arguably. Definitely the bets Free Agent relief pitcher on the market, and as much as I’m reluctant to always try to ‘buy’ the best team, this was the right move. I’m not nearly as excited about it as I was Santana, but I’m fully of the mind that if Wagner doesn’t get hurt, the Mets win the division, and probably the Phillies don’t win the Series.
Omar filled the biggest hole with the biggest plug. We still need a a bunch of relievers, but I don’t think they need to be big name guys. Pull in a bunch of guys from the minors, waivers, other teams, rule-5, wherever, and see who can thrive in this system with these coaches and players.
The last two starters should be the next priority. I wouldn’t be against Pedro/Ollie. Not both, but one of them. Perez is probably the better option, but his consistency is infuriating and overly taxing on the bullpen’s piece of mind. I don’t trust Niese to step in and be a reliable 5th starter. I think they should assume he’ll be the guy that’ll get called up when they need a 6th, or a fill in guy when someone needs to skip a start. I’m not overly concerned with who it is, but It’d be nice to have another big innings guys so the bullpens innings can be kept down.
Tags: bullpen, closers, francisco rodriguez, k-rod, New York Mets, Omar Minaya, pitchers, Relievers, Rotation
First Offseason Move
Well, Omar’s poised to make his first mistake of the off season. Hopefully it’s his only mistake. I have confidence he’ll do what’s needed to improve this team, without caving to what whiny fans think is the best course of action. However, keeping Manuel who failed as a bench coach, failed as an interim manager, and may have even failed as a leader in the clubhouse and managed a team that was succeeding and cruising, even without Billy Wagner, and managed to have them crash and burn again.
Luckily managers don’t have that big an impact, and if you give anybody the right players they can’t succeed. If the bullpen did, or will, pitch well enough that Manuel doesn’t have to constantly tamper with it, he won’t be able to screw it up. Maybe if he resides over a spring training for real, he won’t treat next September like one.
Omar’s decisions can only get better from here.
Tags: 2009 mets, bullpen, jerry manuel, Omar Minaya