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The Math: Optimism For .500

The Mets struggled a bit and saw their good season start to crumble as they lost game after game to fall well below the .500 mark.  Now they’ve picked it up again, it’s worth taking a look to see what they need to do to finish at 81-81.

 

There are thirty games left.  The Mets are 64-68, and need to go 17-13 the rest of the way to hit .500.

 

There are good reasons to expect that the Mets can do just that.  One is that Jose Reyes is back.  Having him in the lineup at the expense of either Tejada or Turner will make a big difference, especially once he’s got a game or two under his belt to get warmed up.  It’s not just Reyes; Duda has been hitting the ball well and making a case for 2012.  Nick Evans has put together a nice little stretch here.  They haven’t been scoring a ton of runs, but they’re getting the job done and most everyone is contributing.

 

Another is that rosters expand on Thursday.  If you look closely at this season, you’ll see that the biggest stretches of losing coincided with the bullpen pitching poorly.  Usually that was closely correlated to the bullpen being overworked.  With an expanded roster and a couple more relievers floating around, that shouldn’t be a problem.

 

The Mets have stumbled a couple of times, but for most of the season they’ve played slightly above .500.   All it takes is a little bit of a streak, a couple of hot bats, and some timely hits.  17-13 is certainly doable.   The competition is certainly not going to be a problem.  The Mets have a lot of games against some sub-par teams that are as far out of it as they are, and there is no reason they can’t win those games.

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Biggest Week of Mets Baseball in Years

This next week or two may be the biggest games the Mets have played since the last week of 2008, and they also might be the biggest games they’ll play for years.  The Mets record, as well as the Phillies and Braves, will greatly determine the look of the team going forward this year, and maybe even next year too.

Sandy Alderson has said he would consider trading Carlos Beltran right now a white flag, but if the Mets play poorly over the next two weeks, that white flag is inevitable anyway.   It’s probably not just Carlos Beltran either; The Mets won’t get a ton for guys like Chris Capuano or Jason Isringhausen, but if the chances of contention plummet there will be little reason to keep them.   If they manage to climb closer in the race, the small return from trading those guys won’t be worth gutting the team.  In a way, the Mets could finish a handful of games above or below .500 based on how they do in these next bunch of games.

Either way this season will likely be viewed as a step in the right direction, but if the Mets fall out of it here and restructure the team with next year in mind, the record and excitement levels will fall.   That probably won’t be enough to prompt many to invest in this team, raising projected income and in turn, payroll.  As the memory of the last Mets game fades, we’ll be subjected to more financial news regarding the Picard lawsuit and the Madoff mess.  Their will be speculations about Einhorn’s control, about how much the payroll can possibly go up, and if the Mets will actually field a competitive team.   So the only real news will be mostly doom and gloom again, which won’t help sell tickets.  Just today someone called into WFAN in the brief 20 minutes I had it on proclaiming there is no way the Mets compete for five or six years.

If the Mets climb back into the race and get closer, Sandy Alderson will be more likely to keep players like Beltran, and may even look to add a reliever or someone, especially if the player can be helpful beyond this year too.   Whether or not they can or will win a playoff race is not the point here, the point is that if they stay close and prove that they can play with anyone it suggests that the Mets may not be years from competing.   They could go into the offseason with fans thinking they’re getting close and with the right moves, including resigning Jose Reyes, the Mets could be a very good team next year.  

There’s going to be a lot of stuff to watch with this team this year, and if they remain competitive and winning games they’ll bring in fans to watch versus fans switching gears to what could be a returning NFL season or something else.  Jose Reyes could have a record breaking season, as despite spotting the opposition 11 or more games, he’s still got a commanding lead in base hits.  David Wright will be returning, one of the Mets franchising players who they’ve sorely missed.  Johan Santana may return, and while that’s still up in the air, as is his effectiveness, it will be nice to see him on the mound again.  I would like to be at his first game back if I can at least.

It all starts tonight against the Phillies with your hero in attendence.   The Phillies aren’t taking the Mets seriously, opting to give  Halladay and Lee some extra rest coming off the break and pushing them back until after the weekend.  Facing Vance Worley, Cole Hamels who the Mets routinely beat, and Kyle Kendrick is not a daunting task.  Hopefully the Mets can get a hot start to the second half, while exposing the Phillies pitching depth, and start catching both them and the Braves who are playing the Nationals this weekend.

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Move Along, Nothing to See Here

I was going to rant and rave and vent and fume, but it looks like Jason Fry basically covered all the angles over there at Faith and Fear in Flushing so I’ll just throw in a little pointer here to there.

 

Ugh. After which we never, ever spoke of it again.

 

So let’s remind these American League teams that are coming to Citi Field why National League baseball is the way to go.  Let’s laugh at their pitchers trying to hit, and laugh at the managers that may botch a double-switch.  Let’s read all the Moneyball references made while the A’s are in town and watch the Mets play, and win, some baseball games at home.  It’s been a long road trip, and a successful one, so let’s go out to the park and watch Jose Reyes be Amazin’.

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Join The Club

There are posts and comments all over the Metsosphere about being excited and optimistic for the future.  All centered on the Mets “Big 3” in Alderson, Ricciardi, and DePodesta.  (What’s with Sandy hiring Pauls?  Any of the managerial candidates named Paul?) To that I say, “Join the Club”.  Maybe my optimism has been a little misguided over the years, but I believe this team has underperformed and still has the talent to have a shot at the post season in 2011.  Once these three guys get going in the front office, I believe the Mets position will only be strengthened.

So if you’re ready to put aside all the negative Mets stereotypes, ready to stop expecting the worst, and ready to look at the reasons the Mets can succeed versus doubting that they will then welcome aboard.

To compliment this post, and this blog, I’ve created an Optimistic Mets Fan Club Google group.  The group has no purpose, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t join.  I’ve also created a Facebook group.  If you don’t like it, the terrorists Phillies win.