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The New York Mets Are Not A Wild Card Team

Two words that have no place in Mets discussions: “Wild Card”

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I’ve heard it a bunch of places, even  Ron Darlings.  The Wild Card is not a term that needs to be mentioned right now, about a team that’s in first place with 18 games still to play against the biggest challenging team.  The Wild Card need not be mentioned until August at the earliest.  The Wild Card should never be the goal.

The division is not out of the question for the Mets.  There is no doubt in my mind that the Phillies will not run away with anything.  They are a team that won 93 games last year, and the Mets are at the very least 10 games better, and the Nationals are better.  The Phillies play almost 25% of their games against those two teams, so it’s likely that the increased talent would shave a couple of games off the Phillies win total.  The Phillies have a couple of guys injured, and aren’t all that improved over last year anyway.  They had guys have career years last year, and career years often don’t get repeated.  They’re even picking up guys off our scrap heap, which doesn’t say a lot for their pitching or infield depth.  The Mets were criticized for having no depth and having to go with Wilson Valdez and Nelson Figueroa last year, yet the Phillies are doing the very same thing this year.

Anything can happen in a baseball season.  Nothing is decided in the offseason, or in April.  However, it’s going into May soon and the Mets are standing in first place.  I said earlier last week that the goal I would like of the Mets is to get through this home stand with a chance to play the Phillies for first place this coming weekend.  After some excellent baseball games it’s looking like it could be the Mets playing the Phillies to help lengthen their division lead.

Ron Darling had a great comment during a replay of David Wright’s bases clearing triple.  As he was rounding second, Ron said “And right around here is where the monkey jumped off his back.” It’s a good start along those lines, and if the Mets could beat the Phillies, play the Reds and return home solidly in first place it’d go a long way towards erasing 2009.  A lot has been made of the attendance figures at Citi Field so far, but I think a lot more of us would start making the trip to the stadium if they returned home conquering heroes and reclaiming their rightful place atop the National League East.

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Letters to the NL East, Part 4/5

(To read past year’s letters, click here)

Letters to the NL East, Part 4 of 5. (part 1, part 2, part 3)

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Dear Philadelphia Phillies,

You suck.  That’s right, you heard me.  You’re the “popular” pick to win the division, much like the Mets were predicted to win the World Series last year.  You know what?  It doesn’t matter.  You get credit in analysts’ eyes for being there in the past, but that doesn’t actually get you any wins in 2010.

You already get one big black mark for letting Cliff Lee leave when you acquired Halladay.  Now suddenly your rotational is only marginally better, at best.  And you have at least as many question marks at the Mets.  Sure, those questions have turned out to be exclamation points in the past, but this is a different year.  Maybe Hamels was a one-hit wonder, and will continue to be merely pedestrian.  Blanton has never been anything special, and Moyer had a hot spring, but is hardly a reliable product in the rotation.  Happ is the one thing to hold on to, in that he had a really good year in his time up last year.  There is no guarantee that that will continue, that he won’t get figured out by the league and fail to adjust, that he won’t suffer the sophomore curse.

Pedro Feliz was such a solid feature at third base that I just don’t buy that Polanco is anything more than a lateral move at best.  Your bullpen is extremely suspect, and while you do have a potent offense, the Mets did match you in runs scored prior to the injury-plagued 2009.   This offseason you lock up a couple of your players to long term contracts, and coupled with letting Lee go, it’s apparent you don’t have the money to fill any holes that arrive this season.

So, while you get many props for winning the division in previous years, the calendar has turned and that buys you nothing in 2010.  You’re at the top of the hill but you’re teetering at the edge.  All it would take is one misstep, or one good push, for you to go tumbling back to obscurity.

While I’ve enjoyed having a real rival that’s both geographical close and in the same league, I don’t know if you can keep it up for long enough for us to say that Mets-Phillies is better than Yankees-Red Sox and really mean it.  The Mets have some minor injuries to start the season, so you should take advantage of it while you still can.  If you can’t start getting ahead in the race, the Mets will steamroll right by you when they’re back to full strength.

It’s going to be a fun and combative year.  Can you handle it?

Your bitter enemy,

Optimistic Mets Fan

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MLB Playoff Predictions

Let’s talk MLB playoff predictions. My picks are probably slightly biased, but there is nothing wrong with that. Anything can happen.

NLDS:

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies.

My pick is the Rockies. Probably in four games. The Phillies have shown at times this year that they are not that good a team. They haven’t been playing well lately. Lee hasn’t had a good September and Hamels hasn’t had a good year, period. Their bullpen is shaky. They won last year because their pitching got hot at the right time. I don’t see that happening this year. The Rockies have the Wild Card momentum thing going for them, and they can actually pitch pretty well, which is the best thing to have to face the Phillies.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

This is another case of a hot team facing a team that coasted in. The Dodgers are a good team, but I don’t think they have things clicking. I think the Cardinals, behind their pitching and their Pujols, take this series in four games. You can never rule out the Mannywood factor, but I think even if he has a good series, which he probably will, it won’t be enough.

ALDS:

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees

This series is being billed as a mismatch, but I think there is too much Yankees love out there. We can talk all we want about being tired and worn out, but I bet the Twins wouldn’t describe themselves that way. I think game 163 even helps them, because they won’t have time to unwind and feel tired. They barely have enough time to get to the next game. I think the Twins take the series in four. I think age catches up to the Yankees offensively, I think the pitching won’t be up to task, especially Joba after how he’s been mishandled. The one thing to say is that if the Yankees can hold off the steamroller in game one and win it, I think the Twins could cave to exhaustion and collapse in three.

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

This is a compelling series too, and I think the hardest one to pick. I think this series will go five, and be the best series. I’m giving the edge to the Red Sox, because I think they have an edge talent wise and that will shine through, but it’ll be close.

NLCS: Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals

I think this is where the Rockies magic wears off. I think they get destroyed, and swept, by the Cardinals.

ALCS: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

Similarly I think the Red Sox take care of the Twins in five.

World Series: Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals

I think this is going to be the best World Series in a long time. I think it’ll go to November 5th, all the way to game seven. The Red Sox will take it in the end, winning their third championship of the decade and establishing themselves as the dynasty of the early century.

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The Next Two Weeks

These are two big weeks coming up. I would like to see the Mets with a couple of games lead in the division by the time it’s over, even with the injuries. While the Mets play seven games against Pittsburgh and the Nationals, the Phillies play the Padres who have been good again, and then four against the Dodgers. The Braves also have a tough stretch, against the Cubs and the Brewers.

The following week the Phillies return to Citi Field where they haven’t won a game. The Mets face the Phillies and Yankees that week, two teams that have some offense, but struggle in the pitching department. These are teams that a good pitching team like the Mets should beat. The Phillies get three against the Red Sox while the Mets do the Subway Series thing.

So these next two weeks are a great time for the Mets to start putting distance between themselves and the rest of the division. Let the Phillies start looking over their shoulder at the Braves instead.

Oliver Perez already had a setback in his recovery to replace the struggling Redding, but if Jose Reyes gets back on target on Friday, and this stomach bug moves along, this team should be ready to go.

Angel Pagan getting injured yesterday wasn’t great news. Yet another outfielder hurt, which has been a theme the past three years. However Pagan doesn’t make or break this team. Given all the injuries, if his MRI today doesn’t say he’ll be back tomorrow, you have to DL him and replace him on the roster. My vote would be for Nick Evans. I know he’s been struggling in the minors, but he played well last year, and in Spring Training. Maybe the boost of being on a major league team is what he needs. While still facing a team like the Pirates that’s basically AAA anyway. Corey Sullivan or Bobby Kielty are both acceptable guys in my eyes too.

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Letters to the NL East 4/5

Letters to the NL East, Part 4 of 5 (part 0, part 1, part 2, part 3, )

 

Dear Philadelphia Phillies,

 

Every dog has it’s day. You’ve gotten your ring for the century, and I suspect you’ll drift back into mediocrity pretty soon. When do the Eagles kick off again? Many of your players last year, particularly in that bullpen, over performed last season. This means that when they fall back to earth, even a little bit, you’re in for a rocky summer.

 

Will any of your fans show up at Citi Field this year, or will most of you stay away unless you have the upper hand in some way? You can count on a bunch of us coming down there as often as possible, turning your stadium into Citi Field south, as usual.

 

Maybe I’m wrong and you’ll compete again this year. The Mets are the better team on paper, but that hasn’t stopped them from giving it up two years in a row. Will you hold up your end of the rivalry and start developing this into something that could surpass Yankees/Red Sox? If the Yankees continue to falter that rivalry could take a step down in intensity behind the closer Mets/Phillies. On the other hand, Phillies fans have never shown up to Shea with the commitment of Red Sox fans at Yankee Stadium, and the Phillies aren’t even half the club the Red Sox are. You’ll probably finish third.

 

Your hated rival,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

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Losingest Team in MLB

The Phillies are one of the oldest baseball teams, and have lost the most games.  They found lightning in a bottle in their bullpen this year, and the teams they faced, which weren’t the top teams in the game, were unable to exploit their weaknesses.  They played a strong September and October, much like the Rockies last year, or the Cardinals the year before.  They won.  It sucks. I take solace in that they only get one title a century, and they’ve used up this one’s only eight years in. 

My money’s on 20,000 losses before the third championship.
However, from a rivalry standpoint, this just amps it up.  Despise years and chances, both teams have two.  Phillies fans aren’t going to discard their hatred for us, and we know they only come out when they’re winning.  But now we’ve grown an intense dislike for them too.  This could get interesting.  Or the Phillies could pack it in and place fourth next year, and the rivalry, like the Phillies themselves, will be a flash in the pan.
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Bounty

The stupid “The division hates the Mets” story got me thinking.  Metstradamus joked about the Mets putting bounties on other players.  Fine, do it.  Not real bounties, but something team building and fun.  Whoever has the best game against the Phillies in a series gets to set the radio/tv for a week.  A pitcher who gets Hanley out the most gets to pick where they eat dinner next. 

 

This all probably stems from the general disconnect players and fans have.  While there is often a jealousy of New York money and success and popularity, it’s rarely the other way around.  What does Hanley Ramirez have for the Mets to hate?  We’re trying to get them to feel our hatred.

 

We seem to have criticized the Mets for acting like they deserved the division in ’07.  Well, they did deserve the division, and I think they should continue to act like that.  The Mets should walk into opposing stadiums like they own the place.  Walk into ’09 like they own the division. 

 

This would be great:

 

Wright: “The division is ours this year.”

 

Reporter: “But aren’t the Phillies the defending division champs? Don’t you have to go through them?”

 

Wright: “Even bad teams get lucky sometimes.  The Phillies..who’s on that team?  Cole..somebody or another right?  Bring it on.”

 

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Division Title is Brewing

Regardless of the struggles for the division, the Brewers inability to win games has put up a safety net for the Mets.  They own a substantial lead over the wild card challengers in Milwaukee, so that even were they to lose the division they’d likely make the playoffs.  However, with a Mets win last night, and a Phillies loss, the Mets are now one loss ahead for the division.  That’s really two, because if they were to end tied, the Mets as winners of the season series would get the division, and the Phillies the Wild Card. 

 

There are nine games left, which is also the magic number to clinch the division outright.  Seven is the magic number to clinch the postseason altogether.  Both are doable.  This team looks good right now; finding ways to win, capitalizing on errors, and not letting their own errors hurt them.

 

86 wins in the book, with nine to play.  Chances are they don’t win every one of them, but end up with a comfortable 90-92.  Which is where they’d have been last year if their collapse had been mini instead of total.  Time to finish it out, put the Phillies away, and win this division.  Leave the final weekend at Shea for Shea, not trying to make the playoffs.

 

Argenis Reyes really should just told he can come back next year.  His spot in the lineup should just read ‘out’.  I know Castillo has been slow returning from the DL, but so has Church, and we’re not killing him.  Castillo is better than Argenis, and a hurt Castillo is better than a hurt Easley, and I don’t think Castillo’s that hurt.  Maybe he’s lost a step here and there, but he still can run the bases, still can draw the walk, still gets on base.  If he can get on base, and Wright, Beltran and Delgado can hit, then everythings peachy.  Argenis Reyes however, hasn’t had a hit in over a month spanning 12 games.  He’s had one walk in that span.  Castillo accomplished both last night.

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Who’s got the ’08 Magic?

I find myself every year kind of liking the Cubs..just because..they’re less harmless than a baby bear. Like the Red Sox did, they have a pretty loyal fanbase for never having won. And of course I’m rooting for them as much as any of those fans this weekend.

So if the baseball gods chose based on ‘magic’…who wins between the Cubs and the Rays this year? The Cubs look like one of the best teams in baseball, and they just seem to have a sense about them of winning. The Rays have now assured themselves of their first non-losing season. Ever, and yet they continue to push to replicate the ’69 Mets. So in terms of baseball magic, you’d think these two teams are the favorites for the World Series. Who wins out? My money’s on the Mets.

I have faith in the Cubs to do well against the Phillies. They took the game against their ‘ace’, and no reason why they can’t win at least two out of three here. I think yesterday around 9:30 is when the Phillies may have said good bye to first place for the next dozen years or so.

don’t pump up the Cubs too much though, we still have to face them in September, and even if we no longer have the Phillies to worry about then, we still need to win 3-1 to take a slim one game edge in the all-time season series against them.

The Yankees edge out a victory today to remain a slim six games behind the wild card leading Red Sox, a team that even without Beckett looks much better than the ‘Bronx Bombers’. The Yankees finish on the road, so the last game at Yankee Stadium will be earlier than that. Is it possible they take the wrecking ball to it before the season even ends? Either way, I’d bet that it starts coming down before the Mets clean out their lockers for the last time.

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On the (W)right Track



Does it get any better than this? The Mets continue to demonstrate that they are the class of the National League East. Braves dominate the Mets? Braves won seven of nine this year? Guess not. Better luck next year Braves.

The Phillies fall another game back, and now face the Dodgers, while the Mets face the Astros. The Dodgers are a better team, but their records aren’t that far apart. Then the two teams meet up for two next week. There are no real goals; just play better than the Phillies do. I’d like them to finish with the Phillies and be further ahead then they are now.

This was one of those games where you almost expect the Mets to drop one. They’ve been hot, they can’t win them all, Pedro can be hit or miss sometimes, and the bullpen hasn’t blown a game in a couple of days. Instead, the Mets pull one out, and now have Santana on the mound tomorrow. It doesn’t matter that it’s against Oswalt.

Now only are Ace’s supposed to stop losing streaks, but they’re supposed to string together winning streaks. All of a sudden the Mets have another winning streak, and Johan has a chance to make it longer. The Mets are on pace for 90 wins for the first time in ages. Johan on the mound, an emotional walk-off win, coupled with the return of Ryan Church, and the Mets will be rolling tomorrow night.

Things have to be looking bad for the Phillies. They lost ground despite playing the Nationals and winning two of three. They’re going into another four game series against the Dodgers, against whom they were swept recently. Could the Phillies fold under the pressure and go away so soon? Only time will tell.