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Can’t win them all

Wow.  Bummer of a weekend.  It turns out this team is roughly the same team as last year.  I’d originally thought the bullpen was better, but without Wagner, it just isn’t.  The bigger deal is that the Brewers seem to be freefalling again, like last year.  It’s shocking that the Phillies beat them in 4 games, but the Mets at least still have a two game in the loss lead.  One of those games is to night. 

 

I’m still not worried, this has been the trend for most of the season.  They’d get a little good run going, and the Phillies would struggle a bit.  Then it’d reverse, and the Phillies would catch back up.  But each cycle of this, the Mets seemed to gain a little bit of ground.  In July and early August, the Mets would get to a game or two lead, and lose it again.  Now they’re getting a three of four game lead, and letting it dwindle down to one or two.  I still think it’s likely the Mets win by four, and I think it’s entirely probable that the Phillies lose 3 games this week.  If the Mets can lose less than that, or go 5-2, next week they’ll be a solid three games up with a week to play. 

 

The biggest problem is still that the bullpen is unsettled.  Last year at this time, we didn’t know who to go with when.  Maybe because they were all struggling or hurt.  This year it appears to be the same story.  For the most part guys like Ayala and Stokes have been solid since coming here, but is that something that’s going to be the norm?  Or are they going to be tired out from being the go-to guys, and by the final weekend, we won’t know who to call on in a tight spot? 

 

The Mets have had plenty of opportunity to put this division away.  There have been a game here and there that they just let get away, gave up early, or couldn’t shut the door on.  They could easily be in a position that the Phillies wouldn’t even be sending out ticketing emails about coming to see their playoff push. 

 

However, it is what it is.  Let’s see the Mets end this this week, play TWO games better than the Phillies, and enter the final week four games up. The Cubs have a magic number of seven, and likely will be using those four games against the Mets for rest and setting up for the playoffs.  Just like it’s been each of the last three seasons, the division is there for the Mets taking.  

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Aboard the Runaway Train

I don’t buy the argument that the Mets are .500 over the last 162. It’s a misleading statistic. This team has rarely played .500 baseball. It’s played better and it’s played worse. Talent wise we all know they should be better. Anyone that tells you otherwise is either disappointed, or a Mets hater.

The biggest, and main reason for their failures has been their inconsistant hitting. They often fail to do the situational stuff, like get guys in from third, or get a big hit with runners on. They’re doing better at scratching and clawing and adding on than last year, but often they only do this, failing to have the big 5-6 run innings. Some of this can be attributed to lack of power, notably the decline of Carlos Delgado, who’s actually hit the ball well lately. However, as Keith would tell you, they didn’t always used to look for the damn 3-run home run. Could this be all the problem is? Rather then trying to simply bloop one or make solid contact up the middle, everyone’s trying to drive the ball high and far? Could someone please tell the Mets that a ground ball often scores the run as easily as the sac-fly, so stop worrying about driving the ball or long home runs and just get a hit. Maybe more guys could score from second and go first to third if every hit didn’t look like it could be caught causing them to have to hang back.

I’ll even give the Padres two of these games. Wagner is going to have the occasional blip, so maybe you give them Sunday. And the offense isn’t always going to be on, maybe an opposing pitcher actually pitches well, and maybe the Padres can take one of those other three. Still, the Mets should’ve been able to take those other two, and they have no excuses. They’re backing themselves against a wall for no reason.

100 games left. You could project numbers, guess or estimate what everyone is going to do. And you’d be wrong 95% of the time. The Mets are capable of winning anywhere from 45-70 of the remaining games. The Phillies are capable of losing anywhere from 40-60 games. Looking at the big picture is what got them into trouble last year. I say they look at being in position to take the division back from the Phillies by their next meeting in early July. That is 22 games prior to a four game series. Probably 23 games if you factor in the Yankee makeup. There is no reason why they can’t play one game better than the Phillies every week, and be in a competitive place by July.

Who knows where they’re going to go, how they’re going to play, or if the Phillies are going to keep this pace. It’s up to the Mets, and the most infuriating part of it all is that we could be on a train ride headed for a wreck with no way to get off.

Oh, and could they go ahead and announce the Yankee makeup date already? If they’r really planning on doing it in two and a half weeks, it’d be nice to know. Especially if they make it at an iffy time like Friday afternoon.

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Betting on 2008

Pending wagers for the upcoming season.

I like to place a couple of simple wagers every year, and this year is no different.

My first one is the Mets to win the World Series. I made this wager pre-Santana so I have 15-1 odds.

Hanley Ramirez, Under 27.5 Home Runs. I don’t expect Hanley to have as good a year as he had last year, as pitchers will figure him out a bit.

Mariano Rivera, Under 36.5 Saves. 37 is a lot of saves, and I think the Rivera is in decline, plus the Yankees with a shoddy bullpen and inning-limited young pitching are unlikely to give him as many opportunities in years past. I made this bet last year and won.

Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays, Over 75 wins. 76 is a lot of wins, would be a franchise record. I was hoping this number would be lower, but I still think they can do it. I think they’re a better team pitching-wise this year, and the division is worse, if only by a little.

New York Yankees, Under 93.5 wins. From the Yankees perspective I think the division is about the same as last year, Tampa improved, Orioles downgraded, Boston and Toronto remained about the same. I won this bet last year(I think the number was 96) and I would’ve won it with 93.5 last year too. The Yankees didn’t get better, in fact they got worse. (A-Rod and Posada won’t do better, and they didn’t acquire any new talent. Unless the young pitching blows everyone away, they’re in for a tough year)

Philadelphia Phillies, Under 87.5 wins. Did the Phillies get better? I’m not a big fan of Myers anyway, I think Lidge doesn’t give them much of an improvement. Just give the Mets two more wins against them and I’d win this. Philly will probably stick around though May and then fade. They just don’t have any pitching.

New York Mets, over 93.5 wins. Can the Mets fight off their stagger last year, and does Johan add what it takes? I actually think the Mets will annihilate this number, because I think Johan and Pedro will have years that make us drool. I lost this bet last year, when the number was 89.5, which I thought was practically a given.

So there are my bets for this year, I may add others if I see them, I’d love to bet on over strikeouts for Pedro, but I didn’t see one anywhere. Anyone else make any wagers, or think I’m crazy on any of these?