Jeff Francoeur for Ryan Church. Why?

francoeur_jeff_2009_scatter

The Mets traded Ryan Church to the Braves for Jeff Francoeur. Hopefully this isn’t what the Braves needed to take the division, but I’m more concerned about Jeff. He’s hitting .250, which is more than he hit last year, and has five home runs.

Presumably it was power and defense that attracted Omar to Francoeur. He does have a good arm. I don’t know that he’s appreciably better than Church, who certainly wasn’t a liability out there. He’s supposedly got power, but for the last two years that’s equated to too many strike outs and not enough hits.

Let’s break down those home runs using hit tracker. Two are considered “just enough” home runs. This means they barely cleared the fence. Two more are classified as “lucky” which means they wouldn’t have cleared the fence on a 70 degree calm day. We know Citi Field is a below average hitter’s park, so how do those home runs translate? He hit all five to left center, which isn’t exactly the easiest place to hit them.

I worry that this was a move because Manuel does not like Ryan Church. Unfortunately, Manuel should play the guys that are better suited to help the Mets win and Ryan Church is just a better baseball player than Jeff Francoeur. The pressure is on HoJo now; hopefully he can mold Francoeur into a better baseball player.

Aboard the Runaway Train

I don’t buy the argument that the Mets are .500 over the last 162. It’s a misleading statistic. This team has rarely played .500 baseball. It’s played better and it’s played worse. Talent wise we all know they should be better. Anyone that tells you otherwise is either disappointed, or a Mets hater.

The biggest, and main reason for their failures has been their inconsistant hitting. They often fail to do the situational stuff, like get guys in from third, or get a big hit with runners on. They’re doing better at scratching and clawing and adding on than last year, but often they only do this, failing to have the big 5-6 run innings. Some of this can be attributed to lack of power, notably the decline of Carlos Delgado, who’s actually hit the ball well lately. However, as Keith would tell you, they didn’t always used to look for the damn 3-run home run. Could this be all the problem is? Rather then trying to simply bloop one or make solid contact up the middle, everyone’s trying to drive the ball high and far? Could someone please tell the Mets that a ground ball often scores the run as easily as the sac-fly, so stop worrying about driving the ball or long home runs and just get a hit. Maybe more guys could score from second and go first to third if every hit didn’t look like it could be caught causing them to have to hang back.

I’ll even give the Padres two of these games. Wagner is going to have the occasional blip, so maybe you give them Sunday. And the offense isn’t always going to be on, maybe an opposing pitcher actually pitches well, and maybe the Padres can take one of those other three. Still, the Mets should’ve been able to take those other two, and they have no excuses. They’re backing themselves against a wall for no reason.

100 games left. You could project numbers, guess or estimate what everyone is going to do. And you’d be wrong 95% of the time. The Mets are capable of winning anywhere from 45-70 of the remaining games. The Phillies are capable of losing anywhere from 40-60 games. Looking at the big picture is what got them into trouble last year. I say they look at being in position to take the division back from the Phillies by their next meeting in early July. That is 22 games prior to a four game series. Probably 23 games if you factor in the Yankee makeup. There is no reason why they can’t play one game better than the Phillies every week, and be in a competitive place by July.

Who knows where they’re going to go, how they’re going to play, or if the Phillies are going to keep this pace. It’s up to the Mets, and the most infuriating part of it all is that we could be on a train ride headed for a wreck with no way to get off.

Oh, and could they go ahead and announce the Yankee makeup date already? If they’r really planning on doing it in two and a half weeks, it’d be nice to know. Especially if they make it at an iffy time like Friday afternoon.

Brooms a Flying

Brooms Flying

I said the Mets would sweep the Braves, and now they have. Anyone that doubts that the Philly series was the exception rather than the rule needs to look again. The Mets are again four games up, on the way to being five up as I write this. Assuming the bullpen hangs on, the Mets will again be going for five wins in a row.

Another thing that we need to stop talking about is the Atlanta ‘jinx’. There is no such thing, and if there ever was, it’s over. The Braves have no more magic, no more sway over the Mets. Chipper Jones may still have the Mets number, but it’s a lost cause. The Mets are very clearly better than the Braves, are the defending champions, and hold a commanding leader over those Braves again this season. So what if the season series is seven wins to eight losses against Atlanta? They were held down and pummeled when it counted the most. This weekend was pretty much must-win for the Braves for any illusions about the division, and maybe even the playoffs.

Now everything probably won’t go as well as it has these last four days, but I think this is closer to the Mets than the Philly series was. Delgado seems to have some power back, and if he can hold on to some of that and Alou can stay healthy the Mets have something that they actually lacked for much of the season, power. Beltran was slumping a bit, and Wright’s not a pure power guy, so the Mets were often resorting to small ball and stringing together hits. There are only so many hits you can string together sometimes. Many of those games in the middle of the summer that the Mets lost would’ve been wins if the RBI singles had become three run home runs.

Pelfrey and Pedro looked good, David Wright’s making his case for 30-30, as well as MVP, Wagner finally earned a save again, and the bullpen has settled down a little.

The magic number is at 23, soon to be 21, and before you know it we’ll be pricing playoff tickets on Stubhub and hoping the Mets clinch at home on the 24th so that we can be in attendance.