Optimism Is Not A Sin! Tweet This Post
Sabermetrics or not, the Mets offseason was a collection of minor signings meant to represent depth and upside. There weren’t many good or great players to be had at anything approaching reasonable value and the Mets roster wasn’t the swiss cheese of baseball rosters that many made it out to be. Alderson hit the holes, and hit them hard. Multiples options for second base and lots of bench guys to slot in at various positions around the field to provide suitable backups and provide depth should a regular need to sit out a couple of days. A handful of pitchers who have potential, or have had a great year or two when they stay healthy to make up the two empty rotation spots, and a barrel full of relievers to make up a bullpen in what sounds like it will be a no-holds barred cage match in Spring Training for the last three or four spots.
Optimism is not a sin. I try, and I’ll continue to try until the division is clinched, to make a case for how and why the Mets will win the division. The odds may be stacked against them and they may need more things to go right than would be considered normal luck but that doesn’t mean they it’s impossible, or that it’s useless to be hopeful and upbeat that they can happen, and that the Mets can win.
I truly believe that the Mets could have one of the best offenses in the National League, and I’m not going to be shy about proclaiming that. Looking at the lineup, it’s certainly not a stretch. There is a certain amount of recovery from some and growing from others needed for it to happen, but it’s not out of the question. Closer to Opening Day I’ll make my official case for how and why I’m predicting the Mets will clinch the division on 9/25 against the Phillies.
Most importantly, the games still have to be played. Every year there are dozens of pitchers that were great and revert to being pretty average. There are rookies that take off in their second year to have great years, and players that overcome injury in previous seasons to have bounce back years. When those players bouncing back are perennial All-Stars, the bounce is that much higher. There are surprises every season; no one knows what’s going to happen. Even the predicted favorite from the offseason rarely makes it all the way to the World Series. Take the Sports Illustrated picks from last season; not even one supposed expert got either of the pennant winners correct.
So don’t get caught up in the negativity around the Mets. There is nothing wrong with thinking some of the Mets signings will have a good year and stay healthy, that Ike Davis could blossom into an excellent player or that Reyes and Beltran in their walk year put up numbers close to their career norms. With better coaching and leadership it’s a pretty good bet that the Mets will get more out of their talent than they have in years past. Remember: Optimism is not a sin!
Update: Here’s a post by Brian DiMenna who’s joined the Optimistic Mets Fan Club.
Tags: Baseball, believe, believe in the mets, best offense, best offense in the national league, Carlos Beltran, chris young, Jose Reyes, Mets, mets optimism, mets roster, mets signings, mlb, New York Mets, offseason signings, Omar Minaya, optimism is not a sin, optimistic mets fan, patrick flood, predictions, sandy alderson, scratchbomb, sports, sports illustrated predictions, ted berg, ya gotta believe
Worst Day of the Year Tweet This Post
Today is the worst day of the baseball season. We get that teaser game yesterday, only to be followed by a day off and no baseball. So I’ll bore you with the bets I made this off season. Feel free to mock and ridicule.
2009 MLB Regular Season Wins – Team Must Play 160 Games
Atlanta Braves
Over 84.5
I think the Braves are more talented than people think. Barring injury.
2009 MLB Regular Season Wins – Team Must Play 160 Games
New York Mets
Over 89.5
This should be an easy one. The Mets are obviously seriously talented.
2009 MLB Regular Season Wins – Team Must Play 160 Games
New York Yankees
Under 95.5
I think the Yankees have a lot of issues, especially if Pettitte is old and wears down, Joba is restricted, Wang is not quite back to form and A.J. Is the new Pavano. Especially if A-Rod isn’t fully recovered.
2009 MLB Regular Season Wins – Team Must Play 160 Games
Philadelphia Phillies
Under 88.5
The Phillies got lucky with their bullpen and had a dozen guys over perform last year. They’re a pretty soft team in general and I think they mail it in early this year.
Cole Hamels – Total Regular Season Wins
Regular Season Wins
Under 15.5 (-135)
Hamels has already started injured. 16 is a lot of wins, especially for a team that won’t top 85 wins.
Jose Reyes – Total Regular Season Hits
Regular Season Hits
Over 188.5 (-115)
This might be the easiest bet. Reyes is only getting better.
2009 World Series Championship
New York Mets
6 – 1
Because I had to.
Tags: 2009, Baseball, bet, betting, odds, predictions, sports betting, wager
Subway Series, and getting going Tweet This Post
I haven’t been a proponent of firing Willie Randolph, and I still don’t believe firing him will fix this team. However, at one point something needs to be done, and that’s about all there is to it. These next seven games are important ones though, more important than these last seven.
The Yankees are actually the right team for them to play. They’re an average pitching team with a good offense, which is actually very like the Phillies, and it plays to the strength of the Mets. Their pitching is their strength, which should be enough to shut down the Yankees, and their offense has enough firepower to score plenty of runs against them.
After that a short four game series against the Braves, who if they stay healthy are definitely better than the Phillies. Keeping themselves ahead of the Braves, and beating them in this series, would go a long way to make them, and us, feel good.
If they don’t play well against these teams, then barring suddenly going on a 10 game winning streak or something, it’s probably time to ditch Randolph because whether it’ll help or not, he’s ultimately culpable for the performance.
Watching the last few days, I’ve felt like the Mets have gotten a lot of bad breaks recently, whether it’s great catches, line drives right at people, or pitching to contact that finds holes. I’m confident this team will have good stretches, but depending on when and how that stretch comes, it might not be enough to put them in a positive, relaxed frame of mind for the rest of the season.
Maybe the energy associated with, and they can deny it exists all they want, the Subway Series will actually wake the Mets up. So here are my predictions, as crazy as you may think they are.
(Santana) Game 1: Mets 8, Yankees 1
(Perez) Game 2: Mets 5, Yankees 3
(Maine) Game 3: Mets 6, Yankees 1
Tags: bad breaks, bad luck, Interleague Play, Mets, predictions, relaxing, Willie Randolph, Yankees
Mets Extra Tweet This Post
At the end of 162, it’s the Philadelphia Phillies 89, the New York Mets 88.
Wow. That sucked. So much for my optimism. I’m not going to be one of those fans that throws blame and anger all over the place, calling for heads and trades and all of that. I will break down the team and next year and what I want to see happen sometime in the near future. I expect I’ll update a bit through the playoffs (I’m rooting for the Cubs) talk about awards and all of that. After October I’ll still post, maybe once a week, or when other things happen. I’m proud of myself for getting through the entire season with this blog, and look forward to making new bloggie friends in the off-season and next year. Here is my postseason prediction, and my in-season stats for the year.
I think the Rockies win tomorrow.
AL Divisional Round
RED SOX defeat
ANGELS (3-1)
INDIANS defeat YANKEES (3-0)
AL
Championship
RED SOX defeat INDIANS (4-1)
NL Divisional
Round
ROCKIES defeat PHILLIES (3-1)
CUBS defeat
DIAMONDBACKS (3-1)
NL Championship
CUBS defeat ROCKIES (4-2)
World Series
RED SOX defeat CUBS
(4-2)
Personally I went to 33 baseball games this year.
My record at Shea Stadium was 15-12.
My record at Mets games was 17-12.
My record for the hometeam was 18-15.
My record for the Nationals was 3-2. (This included three stadiums, RFK, Shea, and Dolphin Stadium)
This year I attended games in 4 stadiums(Shea, RFK, Yankee, and Dolphin)
I’ve now been to 13 Stadiums(Shea, Yankee, Fenway, Wrigley, Citizens Bank, Dolphin, RFK, Petco, ½ old Busch, ½ new Busch, Dodger, Angel, San Fran, McAfee)
Next year the goal is to check out Camden Yards, Nationals park, and Tropicana field.
The Optimistic Mets Blog player of the year is: David Wright.
Is there any doubt? David Wright is looking so good. He was the most solid, consistant player on this team. He struggled in April when the team didn’t, and since then there have been very few games he hasn’t gotten a hit in. He’s now in the top two or three in career Mets avg, slugging, obp and ops. He’s got a .311 career Mets batting average. He expanded his game, learned from his peers, and took on more of a leadership role. He’s a great fielder who needs to figure out his throws a bit, but I’m so glad he’s on our team.
Tags: David Wright, end of the season, my stats, postseason, predictions, recap