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The Best Offense In The NL East

The Mostly Mets Podcast discussed offense in the National League East in episode 33.   The Mets scored the most runs in the division last year, and Toby, Patrick and Ted agreed that they’d probably lead again this year, although the Marlins have gotten real close.

 

Speaking in terms of runs scored the Mets scored 718, the Phillies 713, NL Average was 668, Braves had 641, Florida 625, and the Nationals 624.   The Phillies offense is heavily influenced by the park they play in, and without Ryan Howard indefinitely plus another year of age for Rollins and Utley it doesn’t seem like the Phillies will score as many in 2012.  Can the addition (And subtraction) of Jose Reyes account for 92 runs of difference between the two teams?   The Marlins offense is heavily lopsided with Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton making up most of it.

 

The Mets drop off from Beltran to Duda shouldn’t be too great, and Andres Torres can probably give the Mets what Angel Pagan gave them last year.  Replacing Jose Reyes’ production is a little tougher.  Luckily most of his at bats will be made up with more at bats from Ike Davis and a little more Ruben Tejada.  David Wright will get more at bats as well, and all of them with a healthy back.  This will all keep the offense churning, even if Jason Bay exhibits no signs of life.

 

If I had to pinpoint one player to worry about, it’d be Tejada.  He’s still young though, so there’s still plenty of hope he’ll improve.  Last year’s OBP was partially BABIP/AVG fueled, but he did improve on his strikeout and walk rate.  Keep improving there and even if he gets lucky he’ll still maintain a very helpful rate at getting on base.

 

One other factor to consider that makes the Mets clear-cut favorites: power.  The Mets got on base more than anyone else in the National League except the Cardinals, but they had league average slugging.  This translates to a lot of runners stranded that otherwise would’ve been runs.  In 2012 the Mets will have more power.  Duda is already impressing people with his power this spring, and Davis will join him to tattoo the Pepsi Porch all year long. Add a healthier Wright and even a 20% bounce back from Jason Bay towards his career norms and the Mets will be a very dangerous threat.  This is all without even mentioning the walls.  The Marlins addition of Jose Reyes will likely raise their on base percentage, but not enough to make up the difference.

 

I’m confident the Mets will have the best offense in the National League East this season.  It’s one step towards a successful season, and it’s also a step that isn’t going anywhere.  The Mets offense is controlled through 2013 at least, with prospects prepared to fill in at some of the weaker positions soon.  The Mets offense is great and will stay that way.

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Jose Reyes and the Triple Crown

Photo by Michael Baron

A player like Jose Reyes will never win a Triple Crown, he’s not a slugger and right now doesn’t bat in a part of the lineup with a lot of RBI opportunities.  We count the success of players like Reyes with runs scored and stolen bases over home runs and RBIs.

So how does Jose Reyes stack up in the Leadoff Hitters Triple Crown as of 6:00pm on Sunday when I’m writing this?  He leads the National League in average at .346.  He’s currently 2nd in runs, one off the lead held by Drew Stubbs and Ryan Braun at 48.  He’s second in stolen bases, six behind Michael Bourn of the Astros who has 26.

The season is a little over a third over, so there is still a lot of time left.  Still, Reyes certainly looks like a solid candidate for my newly created Leadoff Triple Crown.  He’s leading in hitting right now, although Joey Votto is only .007 behind him and having an unbelievable season as well.  He’s currently got a .466 OBP.  He’s on base more than 9 times out of 20.

Reyes is only one run scored off the lead, which is doubly impressive when you consider Stubbs has Votto behind him driving him in and Braun has Prince Fielder.  Reyes has had to deal with injuries to Ike Davis and David Wright, and has often had Jason Bay, who’s not hitting at all, batting cleanup.

Michael Bourn is leading Jose in stolen bases.  Bourn has been the leader in each of the last two seasons while Jose was dealing with the injury in 2009 and the lack of a Spring Training in 2010.  So far this season he’s playing decently above his career average, and perhaps will tail off in stolen bases opportunities and allow Jose to pass him.  Or maybe Jose starts stealing more.

Yes, Jose Reyes is having a monster year. He’s easily one of the most exciting players in baseball and the best shortstop in the league.  Ultimately the Mets are going to have to work out an extension with him and resign him, but in the mean time we’re getting to enjoy one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from a Mets position player.  Getting to the tv for first pitch when the Mets are on the road is a necessity, because if you’re late you may miss Reyes doing something amazin’.

The 7 train sometimes makes local stops, but Jose Reyes is always express.

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We Don’t Need More Offense

There seems to be a desperate need among some fans for the Mets to upgrade their offense. Some people are overly freaked out to the point (not that it takes much for some) of screaming and yelling about the Wilpons and/or Minaya and the inevitable ‘please spend like the Yankees’ pleas.

They’re off-target. The offense we have is fine. The one area I’d like to see improved is the bench, and this isn’t something you sign Manny Ramirez for. I’d be reluctant to sign an outfielder if it limits Murphy’s playing time, and I think Castillo is going to have a more than acceptable year. Even without those two positions, which was basically where the Mets were last year, they scored the second most runs in the National League (ahead of Philadelphia). Some of it was bad situational stuff, which you have to pin on both HoJo, and Manuel’s lineup and pinch hitting selections. Hopefully both of these get better, but one of the things that definitely will help is the better bullpen. For two years now, repeated blown saves have overshadowed the offense. The Mets weren’t flat in 2007, the bullpen just gave back the lead too often. The Mets weren’t unable to get a big hit in 2008, the big hits just were just obscured by the bullpen giving the lead back, or making the game so out of reach that the big hit that was needed was a 6-run home run.

The Mets will seem to hit better in 2009 even if the lineup stays the same. The Mets will be more capable of winning that 3-2 game, and suddenly their offense will be plenty.

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Pitching Holding Up

More bad news on the Billy Wagner front, as it looks like he’ll need some more time to deal with his elbow issues, but the Mets continue to find ways to win. This is much different than the first two or three months of the season, when the Mets were finding ways to lose. Of course it’s against bad teams, but the Mets do have a good record against good teams too.

I’m pretty sure Manuel was spinning his normal tall tales when he talked about moving a starter to the bullpen, but the media, the fans, and the blogosphere can’t seem to stop talking about it. I don’t think it’s likely, despite Maine’s longevity problems lately. I’d much rather see the Mets throw whatever relief pieces they have in the minors, particularly after roster’s expand, against the wall and see what sticks. Maybe all Ayala needs is a change of scenery, and he can make an impact here. If we want to talk John Maine to the bullpen for October, that’s certainly something to think about once the Phillies fall out of it.

The Phillies are probably due for another upswing after a bunch of losses, and it’s important for the Mets to stay ahead of them. This way when the Phillies struggles resurface, which is pretty much inevitable, they can lengthen the lead and start really pulling away. It’s hard to think the bullpen could possible be worse, and any improvement in the team can only make it stronger. Despite being second in the league to the Cubs in runs scored, the Mets have struggled with big hits with RISP.

The biggest factor in thinking the Mets will take this division..semi-easily.., is that the Mets seem to have made the case that they can beat anyone and can win in a variety of ways. Conversely, the Phillies have exhibited the behavior of being able to be beat by anyone. The Phillies, particularly their starters, are very hit or miss. If their offense isn’t on that day, even the lowly Nationals can beat them, and even if their offense is on, it’s possible that their pitching will keep opponents in the game.