What NOT To Watch in Port St. Lucie

Yesterday I mentioned a couple of things to watch for in Spring Training. Today I’ll run through a couple of things that aren’t worth paying much attention to.

Statistics
The results don’t matter.  This goes double for guys with guaranteed spots and pitchers.  Pitchers tend to experiment with different things like pitch selection, grip, or even a new pitch.  They may stand on a different part of the rubber or pitch from the stretch with no one on just for practice.  Being that the games don’t matter, they’re able to tinker without affecting the standings. An example of this is last spring Mike Pelfrey said “I threw all split-finger fastballs one inning.”  This is not something that he would do in a game situation.

The numbers for the guys competing for spots may matter a bit more, but the entire experience is an evaluation and a showcase.  It’s more than who strikes out the most batters or who hits the most home runs.  It could be about any number of things and often managers and general managers may go on feel.  They could be looking at how hard a guy hits the ball, even for outs, or looking to see if he’s laying off bad pitches that were causing too many strikeouts in years past. Spring Training is almost always a small sample size subject to a lot of variation.  AAA players, pitchers working on things, defenders playing a position for the first time, pitchers experimenting with new grips and new deliveries and pitches all create a game that’s not quite the same as the regular season.   Often decisions need to be made on less measurable things like work ethic, bat speed, or getting good reads on fly balls.

Reports On Physical Condition
Inevitably someone in camp is in the best shape of their lives, while others packed on some pounds.  This information is beyond useless beyond making fun of the fat guy on a rival team’s roster.  It’s still six weeks to Opening Day and everyone is well into a regimented workout program by then that makes what they ate in the offseason while they were essentially on vacation worthless. No one criticizes you when you have a second helping of pulled pork and another cocktail when you’re on vacation, so lay off the players.

Game Scores and Records
For every example of a team that dominated Spring Training that did well in the regular season there is a team that did horrible in Spring Training and still did well in the regular season.  None of it matters.  Guys are just putting in their work.  It’s a rotating cast of characters parading through the game and half of them won’t even make the team.  Sometimes they tie. Sometimes they play a 10th inning for fun and sometimes the manager pinch hits an unseasoned AA rookie for his superstar in the bottom of the 9th just because he wants to see if he can hit the lefty on the mound.  The same goes for lineups early on.  Sometimes stars bat higher up in the order so they can get their two or three at-bats in earlier in the game and get off the field.  You may bat a pitcher third because you want him to practice a bunt or move a player to lead off to challenge him to take more pitches.

Spring Training is a lot of fun, but it’s still an exhibition for the real thing.  There are a lot of interesting things to watch, but there are plenty of things that aren’t worth worrying about either.

How to Watch the Final 22 Mets Games

Baseball is by far my favorite sport.  I could never see another day of any other sport and I wouldn’t really miss it, but I’m going through baseball withdrawal by Thanksgiving.  So I’ll be watching most of the next 22 Mets games, and even when I change the channel on Sunday’s to the Giants, I’ll probably flip back and forth to watch baseball.

However, the games mean absolutely nothing and Jerry Manuel continues to do mind-numbingly stupid things with the roster, so how do I stay interested?  I try to take each part of the game and watch it for the game, and the situation, at hand with no care or worry about what it means to the overall season.  R.A. Dickey is pitching, so I’ll watch him dazzle with his two knuckleballs.  I don’t worry about his double digit win total, his contract status for next year, whether or not this is a one-year wonder or anything like that.  There will be months and months of that sort of debate, but for now there are only 22 Mets game left and I’ll enjoy each one for what they are; baseball games.

Obviously watching some of the rookies getting their shot at the majors is something to look at.  Duda and Tejada are two that look mostly overmatched and unready, but Davis is again putting good swings on balls and launching monstrous home runs.  Jon Niese may be struggling down the stretch, but it’ll be interesting to see if he can fight through it for a couple more starts to finish off what’s been a terrific rookie campaign.  Thole’s looking like a solid catcher option for next year, and we’re going to get more looks at Mejia and Gee as well.

Career milestones are another avenue to root for.  David Wright and Jose Reyes, once he returns from the oblique strain, are reaching territory rarely achieved in Mets history.  They’re cementing their places as some of the greatest Mets to wear the uniform.  Wright needs two RBI to tie Mike Piazza for second all-time as Met.  Three game-winning RBI to tie Piazza for first.  He’s second on the career list for runs scored, and Reyes is fourth and only three runs behind him.  Reyes is the all-time Mets leader with 329 stolen bases and increases his lead with every swipe.  Wright and Reyes are 4th and 6th respectively in hits.  These guys are some of the best Mets to ever play the game and they’re playing right here, right now.

So while the Mets may be inches from elimination, there is still a lot to be excited about while watching these final 22 games.  Before you know it the season will be over and you’ll be wishing you could watch Niese drop one last curveball on a unsuspecting hitter, or see David Wright crush one more fastball.

Omar’s Advanced Statistical Analysis

“Mets GM Omar Minaya poses ideas to him, often via email, and Baumer will run the numbers to see if they’re true. He said he’s one of 8 or 10 people who can offer their two cents when a decision is being made, such as a trade or in free agency.”

 Jenny Vrentas/The Star-Ledger is referring to Ben Baumer, the Mets statistical analyst.  We’ve known the Mets use, as do most teams, advanced statistics in evaluations of players for trades and signings and even drafting.   They hinted at it being one of the reasons they chose Jason Bay.  It provided evidence that the free agent pitchers on the market this offseason were not worth it. 

It’s worth noting that despite some criticism, the Mets do in fact use a variety of tools to evaluate players.   I have plenty of issues with some of the popular advanced stats out there, from UZR to WAR to FIP.  I’m working on a post that specifically outlines my concerns, but there is still value to looking at these numbers, especially to reinforce an opinion you might have on a player you haven’t seen that much of. Especially for a general manager of a baseball team.

For all the criticisms of Omar, and those fans that feel he just has to go before this team can win, this article suggests he might not be as clueless as you think.

Projected Stats

Some projected stats after 55games, just over a third of the season. (Prior to the San Francisco Road Trip)

Pitching projects are approximate since it depends on where they fall in the rotation and days off and all that.(Santana won’t end up with 35 starts.) I included total pitches thrown and pitches per game. which are very arbritrary and meaningless. I couldn’t find Inherited Runners Scored for Smith, but i’ll look more carefully when i next to projections.

I intend to project some of the Phillies players too, and match them up a little bit, but I don’t have time for that now, so later in the week.

Projections
Reyes, 106R, 189H, 15T, 21HR, 74rbi, 68BB, 53SB .284avg/.347obp/.480slg
Wright, 109R, 186H, 50D, 32HR, 124rbi, 106BB, 24SB, .293/.395/.535
Beltran, 115R, 156R, 44D, 18HR, 100rbi, 106BB, 21SB, .264/.372/.458
Delgado, 130H, 24HR, 68BB, 21D, .224/.306/.383

(47g)Church, 103R, 159H, 24D, 29HR, 100RBI .320/.384/.556
(44g) Castillo, 80R, 127H, 9HR, 27SB, .265/.374/.364
(36g) Schneider, 94H, 44rbi, 27R, .258/.326/.323

Santana 21-9, 35G, 3.20, 209K, 59BB, 239IP, 230H, 3696p, 106(p/g)
Maine 15-12, 32G, 3.66, 189IP, 159H, 159K, 88BB, 3387p, 106(p/g)
Perez 12-9 32G, 4.83, 174IP, 147H, 147K, 121BB, 98(p/g)
Pelfrey 6-18, 29G, 4.98, 165IP, 206H, 85K, 74BB, 2981p, 103(p/g)
Wagner .039, 68IP, 32S, 41H, 82K, 12BB,
Smith 2.95, 62IP, 44H, 62K, 24BB,