Why The Mets Can Compete: Best Offense in the NL

Don’t believe everything you hear: The New York Mets can compete for a division title this season.

 

The Best Offense in the National League

The Mets have a surprisingly potent offense, and it’s getting glossed over with all the negativity surrounding the team.  I’ve been calling it the best lineup in the National League, and while it’s certainly premature to proclaim anything like that before the season has started, I think they can definitely make a case for it.  I’m not even the only one that thinks the Mets bats aren’t getting a fair shake. Here’s Ted Berg with his take on the lineup.

There are other good lineups out there.  The Reds scored a ton of runs last year and their lineup remains mostly intact.  Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Scott Rolen make up the meat of that lineup, and that’s pretty formidable.

The Cardinals have Albert Pujols.  You could almost end the discussion right there, as “They have Pujols” is often the deciding factor in which offense is better.  The Cardinals also have Matt Holliday, as well as Yadier Molina, David Freese, and Colby Rasmus.  Still, I’m not sold on Ryan Theriot, Lance Berkman, or Skip Schumaker contributing that much to the lineup.

The Brewers have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.

Perhaps more immediately dangerous to the Mets is the Atlanta Braves. Dan Uggla, Chipper Jones if he’s healthy, Brian McCann behind the plate.  An outfield of Heyward, Prado and McLouth.  The Braves can definitely hit the ball this year.

Now let’s actually look at the Mets.  Pagan has put up great numbers with the Mets and last year could play center as well as anyone.  Jose Reyes is healthy and prepared for the season this year, and already looks to be the Jose we know and love.  He actually had good numbers last year once he finally got up to speed after missing Spring Training.  He needs to walk more, but he’s a dynamic force at the top of the lineup.  Similar to the Braves with Chipper, Carlos Beltran needs to stay healthy and on the field.  It’s easy to forget just how good he is when he’s not playing, but having him in there for 130-140+ games is going to be a great boon.   You’d like David Wright to strike out less, but he’s still a talented frontline bat in the center of the lineup.  Jason Bay had a down year that was punctuated by a concussion, but it’s not hard to think that he’ll return to smashing home runs and getting on base at a great rate.  He doesn’t need to hit 40 to help this team either; if he can keep his OBP high and not make out, even if he only hits 25-30, that’ll be a great help.

Now the back end of the lineup is what will make or break my argument.  I think the Mets have a deep lineup, and unlike past years with guys like Jeff Francoeur, or Gary Matthews Jr, or Brian Schneider, the Mets don’t have an obvious glaring hole.  Ike Davis had an excellent rookie year, and the hope would be that he builds on it.  He’s got a lot of power and was perhaps rushed a bit last year with the injury to Murphy.  Now with a full season, starting the season in the majors and comfortable in his role, hopefully he can improve.  Josh Thole has had limited time, but everything we’ve seen from him has been good. He’s a guy with good bat control that doesn’t strike out and has an above average OBP for a catcher.  We’ve seen some signs that he’ll grow into some power as well.  He’ll never be Mike Piazza, but it’s been a long time since we’ve had a catcher that actually did any hitting.  The last guy in the lineup, right now, is Brad Emaus.  It’s hard to project what he’ll add, as he hasn’t had any major league experience.   He put up very good numbers in AAA last year, with a .397 OBP and 15 home runs.   So he’s a patient guy, and hopefully he can utilize some of that patience to draw walks in the majors as well.

If the lineup holds up as it’s constructed now, it’s certainly in the running for a dangerous lineup.  Will it be “the best?”  Only time will tell, but I like the Mets chances in that regard.

Why The Mets Can Compete: The Starting Rotation

Don’t believe everything you hear: The New York Mets can compete for a division title this season.

The starting rotation for the Mets this year looks to be Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Young, and Chris Capuano.  Those five are better than a lot of people give then credit for, but let’s start with the returning Mets from last year.

Mike Pelfrey

Year W L W-L% ERA GS IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 15 9 .625 3.66 33 204.0 213 88 83 12 68 5 113 107 1.377 9.4 0.5 3.0 5.0 1.66

Mike Pelfrey had a good year last year, and it’s not unreasonable to think he can have a comparable one.  He had one really bad month that he’ll need to avoid and work through, and hopefully another year of experience can help him do that.  He was one of the best pitchers in the game through April last year, and while he probably won’t be quite _that_ good again, if you balance it against him not being as bad as he was in July, the overall performance can probably be similar to what we see in the table above.  I think there is some hope that he can cut down on the walks and hits a little bit and maybe get better, but that remains to be seen.

R. A. Dickey

Year Age W L ERA G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 35 11 9 2.84 27 26 2 174.1 165 62 55 13 42 104 138 1.187 8.5 0.7 2.2 5.4 2.48

R.A. Dickey came out of nowhere last season to have one of the best years in the league.  In fact his numbers are better than all of the pitchers on the Phillies sans Halladay, so all the talk of the Phillies having four aces and the Mets having none is a little silly.  The biggest question regarding Dickey is if last season was a one time deal.  Sandy Alderson doesn’t think so, and he gave Dickey a two year contract to prove it, and I don’t think so either.  It’s non unheard of for pitchers that utilize the knuckleball to suddenly find success later in their careers as Dickey has done.  Dickey has proven to be a very intelligent pitcher and really understands what’s going on on the mound.  He throws two knuckleballs and is able to change speeds with it.  His fastball isn’t even completely washed up, so when he does throw one, it reaches the mid 80s in velocity and doesn’t need just trickery to get past the hitter.  He was able to sustain success throughout the entire season last year, including multiple appearances against the same teams.  Also, his walk rate was surprisingly low for a knucklerballer.  Pitching to a 2.84 ERA might be a bit lofty, but he was also victimized by poor run support.  Perhaps a more potent offense gets the Mets more wins even if Dickey’s ERA rises slightly.

Jonathan Niese

Age W L ERA G CG IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
23 9 10 4.20 30 2 173.2 192 97 81 20 62 148 9 93 1.463 10.0 1.0 3.2 7.7 2.39

Jonathan Niese is entering his second full season with the Mets, after a surprisingly good rookie year.  He hit a wall late in September, something he vows not to do in 2011.  He threw two complete games, and had a very nice 7.7 K/9 rate.  He really showed good command with his curveball, something you know no opponents are looking forward to facing.  I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect some improvement from Niese as he’s still a young pitcher learning and adjusting.  You’d like to see him give up a few less hits and walks overall, while utilizing his pitches to get more strikeouts.  He got 148 last year, and with a little improvement through a full season, he’s a guy that could reach 200.

Chris Young

Year Tm W L ERA ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
7 Seasons 48 34 3.80 109 1.209 7.4 1.1 3.5 7.8 2.21

Chris Young has been injured a lot, but as you can see from his career line he’s a pretty good pitcher when he’s healthy.  The key is making sure he stays healthy, and can give the Mets numbers approximating his career line.  All indications out of Spring  Training are that he is healthy and pitching well.  If that means strengthening the pen so you don’t over-stress Young’s arm, or occasionally giving him extra rest, then the Mets should do it.  Young starts to make this rotation look pretty deep, and while he’s not going to overwhelm or blow anybody away, he gets the job done and induces a lot of weak contact.   Other options loom the longer we can keep him healthy, even if he doesn’t make it all season.  Johan Santana could return, Dillon Gee or another prospect or Buffalo starter could be throwing the ball really well and deserve a promotion.

Chris Capuano

Year W L ERA IP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Awards
6 Seasons 46 52 4.35 777.2 101 1.357 9.2 1.3 3.0 7.4 2.45

Chris Capuano is not quite as impressive as Chris Young, but he’s got the benefit of having pitched enough last year to be over the “Is he healthy?” hump.  If he does make the rotation I’m happy with his ability to contribute to winning games, and I’d certainly take a healthy Capuano over most of the 5th best starters other teams are using.  In 66 innings last year, in the bullpen and the rotation, Capuano’s numbers were right around his career norms.  I’m hopeful with those 66 innings under his ‘new’ belt that he can get comfortable and have a quality year.   He’s healthy now, and maybe the lack of pitching of the last couple of years will actually mean his arm is fully healed and hasn’t been worn down by season after season of pitching strain.   Despite Chris Young probably being a better pitcher, I’m more confident that Capuano can stay on the field all season and win games for the New York Mets.

 

Injuries  and Depth

I’m not going to pretend that the Mets have a ton of depth to replace these guys if things go wrong.  Certainly if the Mets rotation misses more than a handful of starts here and there, there could be problems.  Pat Misch could be an emergency starter, but he’s league average at best.  Maybe Dillon Gee or another minor league prospect can come up and contribute if they’re forced into it, and maybe someone emerges later in the season if someone gets hurt.  There will be at least five starters in Buffalo, and presumably someone will warrant promotion at some point.

 

Then there is Johan Santana.  You would have to to think removing Santana from the rotation and adding Chris Capuano would be a net loss of games for the Mets, but it’s never as clear cut as that.  Actually, the Mets lost a lot of Santana’s games last year by scoring no runs when he gave up merely one.  If the Mets are hitting, couldn’t they win more games than that even if Capuano gives up three?  It’s perhaps unrealistic to expect Santana, coming off a anterior capsule tear, to contribute anything this year, but it’s not wrong to hope and wonder if he can return around the All-Star break and get stronger as the season reaches it’s conclusion.  All baseball seasons are full of uncertainty and risk, and while it’s certainly a risk that one of the Mets pitchers could injure themselves and hurt the Mets chances, there’s also the possibility that Santana returns and contributes down the stretch.

 

So as it stands right now, the Mets rotation looks pretty solid from top to bottom and is full of pitchers with talent and ability. They should keep the Mets in the game, and create opportunities for them to win those games with some offense.  The diversity of the staff plays into things as well; You’ve got a knuckleball, a curveball, a sinkerball, and two control pitchers.  That’s a lot of prep work for opposing lineups to do to try to keep on top of all the different looks they’ll see when they face the Mets.