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The Bridge Between Hope and Elimination

There are often two extremes to any situation.  One side will tell you the Mets playoff hopes are over, while the other might say they live on until the Mets are mathematically eliminated or at least further than 7 out with 17 to play.   Right now we’re bridging the gap between the two in a murky cloud where the Mets try to grasp at the last tendrils of hope before they flutter away.

 

53 games to play is a lot of games left in front of the Mets on the season.  With that many games left the Mets are still chasing a number of wins more than a Wild Card leading team.  After all, the team that’s leading today might not be the team that wins, meaning you’re not quite as far behind as it looks.  It wouldn’t even take a collapse to drop the number needed to qualify for the postseason to 88 wins, just a less than awesome second half by a couple of teams.  Currently the team occupying the low end of the playoff spectrum in the National League is the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 93 win pace, followed by the Cardinals with an 89 win pace.  There isn’t enough hope to bet on, but perhaps there is just enough to fill a dream.

 

The Pirates have not had a winning record since 1992, as pretty much everyone is aware of these days.  The Pirates have long been held up as the example of the team you’re supposed to beat on the schedule.  The Pirates have not won a postseason series since 1979, which was before I was born.  Is it impossible that a Pirates team that won less games than the Mets last year falters a little in the second half? Andrew McCutchen may be the best player in baseball this year, but can he sustain this incredible pace all the way to the end and if he doesn’t can the Pirates  compensate for the drop in offense?  Look at the Mets since David Wright stopped batting .350.

 

It’s worth taking a moment out from my point here to suggest you take the opportunity to watch McCutchen if you have a chance.  He’s having an amazing year.

 

Even if 88 wins is the mark the Mets need to get to, they’d need to play to a 35-18 record the rest of the way.   That’s quite a record, but it’s not an insurmountable one.  It would require some very good baseball, quality baseball that the Mets have no sustained for that length of time all year, but it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world if it happened.  The schedule works in their favor too, as they’ll be able to affect the wins and losses of some of the teams they’re chasing, including the Braves, Pirates, and Cardinals.

 

Time however, is not on the Mets side.  If they’re going to make a run it has to be now.  The last remnants of hope lurking in the recesses of the Mets season will be cleaned out and packed away for next year of the Mets don’t start a serious winning streak over the next week or two.   Winning road trips or home stands are no longer enough.  They need to win series and mix in a sweep or two.  Until then, the Mets exist in this murky state where you know they can get back into the hunt but you can’t quite see the path they’d have to take to get there.

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Climbing Back Into the Playoff Race

With that four game sweep of the Reds the Mets have inched closer in the playoff race.  They are now 6.5, 6 losses, behind the Atlanta Braves for the Wild Card, and 3.5, 3 losses, behind the second place Arizona Diamondbacks.   What makes those numbers even less daunting is that they play both those teams.

 

They have nine games left against the Atlanta Braves, who they’ve already beaten in five of their previous nine games.  If they could play well against Atlanta, that number of games behind would shrink fast.  The Mets have six games against Washington and Florida before playing the Braves next weekend.  The Braves also have six games against those same teams.  It’s shaping up to be a huge series for the Mets, one that could really make or break the season.

 

I would like to see the Mets play better than the Braves during these next six games.  Gain one game before going head to head, so that they are five out.  Then they have the possibility to push it to four games with a series win, or really put the pressure on with a sweep and go to merely two games behind them.  Right now the Braves aren’t playing well and just lost Brian McCann, and the Mets are playing well and some of the guys that were slumping are now hitting.

 

It’s time to start surprising some people.  Not just “Hey, this team isn’t a disaster” surprise, but a “Hey, this team is actually _good_” surprise.  Let’s Go Mets!

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Trying to Finish on a High Note

The Mets are looking to finish the unofficial first half with a positive note, despite losing Jose Reyes this week for six or more additional games.  They have three All-Star pitchers to face to get there, although the name Vogelsong doesn’t exactly fill you with fear.

 

With the Braves and Phillies rarely losing lately, the Mets have had trouble making up ground even when playing well.  Which is why it’s important that they win some of these games against All-Star pitchers before they lose anymore ground.  They still have plenty of time and plenty of games against their opponents, but you can’t let them get too far ahead either.

 

The Mets will have a chance to finish anywhere from one game under .500 to five games over.  Merely winning the series would put them a comfortable three over, whereas losing it would drop them to just one.   The Braves and the Phillies play each other this weekend, so one of those teams will have to lose at least two games.  The Mets winning ensures they can at least gain ground on one of them.   They then have a chance after the break to gain even more ground on Philadelphia directly.

 

If the Mets can win some of these games, including some of the ones after the break, they’ll start getting healthier with Jose Reyes, David Wright and maybe even Ike Davis returning to this offense.  Adding those guys would suggest that the Mets would be better than they have been so far.  There’s no saying that that will be enough to propel them above and beyond their competition, but it should be fun to watch.  Hopefully the Mets can give those guys an opportunity to still be in the race when they return.