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Realignment: Home Field, Tie-Breakers, More Interleague, Bench

The news this week is that the Astros sale is final and they’ve agreed to move to the AL West for 2013.  This means the schedule will consist of 30 interleague games, all season long, as well as the 72 against your own division, and another 60 against the rest of your league.    I happen to like it, besides the keeping the DH thing that gives the AL an unfair advantage.  A 2nd wild card berth will also be added with a one-game sudden death playoff for the true Wild Card spot.

 

These changes were made to even up the leagues as well as put the emphasis on winning the division.   Winning the division guarantees you’ll make the Division Series, although doesn’t give you any additional benefit _in_ any of the series besides home field over the Wild Card.  I’d actually like to see that eliminated now, and just go with best record.   If a 94 win wild card team already has to dispatch with a lesser team in a sudden death match, let them have the home field after that if they’re playing an 88 win division winner.

 

For those of you that still think the balanced schedule is important, this new format would include that for the divisional race, although not the wild card race.  Each division would play the same set of interleague teams.   What I’d be curious about is the tie-breakers.  Previously if two teams were tied for the division and wild card, but both would make the playoffs, the team with the better record is awarded the division.   While I think there is merit to keeping the same format, emphasizing that you need to beat the teams in your division to actually win it, I could see where it’s a tough pill to swallow to technically have the best record in the division and have to play a sudden death game.

 

This format has the potential to create a lot of heartbreak.  Especially the first couple of years as teams leading in the Wild Card are used to coasting and preparing for the playoffs.  To then potentially go home one day after the season ends is going to feel much like we felt as Mets fans in 2007 and 2008, or Reds fans felt in 1999.  I suspect the winning team will treat the game as pretty much an extension of the regular season, not getting overly excited about winning that ‘first round’ game.

 

Many will dislike the extra interleague, but I’ve got no more desire to see another series against the Dodgers than the Angels.  Roster construction in the National League may take on a different form.  With interleague play scattered throughout the season, and more of it, NL teams may feel the need to carry more of a DH type player on the bench.   None of this is official yet of course, but it looks like it’s pretty close to accurate and finalized.  It’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out, but I think it could be fun.

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Biggest Week of Mets Baseball in Years

This next week or two may be the biggest games the Mets have played since the last week of 2008, and they also might be the biggest games they’ll play for years.  The Mets record, as well as the Phillies and Braves, will greatly determine the look of the team going forward this year, and maybe even next year too.

Sandy Alderson has said he would consider trading Carlos Beltran right now a white flag, but if the Mets play poorly over the next two weeks, that white flag is inevitable anyway.   It’s probably not just Carlos Beltran either; The Mets won’t get a ton for guys like Chris Capuano or Jason Isringhausen, but if the chances of contention plummet there will be little reason to keep them.   If they manage to climb closer in the race, the small return from trading those guys won’t be worth gutting the team.  In a way, the Mets could finish a handful of games above or below .500 based on how they do in these next bunch of games.

Either way this season will likely be viewed as a step in the right direction, but if the Mets fall out of it here and restructure the team with next year in mind, the record and excitement levels will fall.   That probably won’t be enough to prompt many to invest in this team, raising projected income and in turn, payroll.  As the memory of the last Mets game fades, we’ll be subjected to more financial news regarding the Picard lawsuit and the Madoff mess.  Their will be speculations about Einhorn’s control, about how much the payroll can possibly go up, and if the Mets will actually field a competitive team.   So the only real news will be mostly doom and gloom again, which won’t help sell tickets.  Just today someone called into WFAN in the brief 20 minutes I had it on proclaiming there is no way the Mets compete for five or six years.

If the Mets climb back into the race and get closer, Sandy Alderson will be more likely to keep players like Beltran, and may even look to add a reliever or someone, especially if the player can be helpful beyond this year too.   Whether or not they can or will win a playoff race is not the point here, the point is that if they stay close and prove that they can play with anyone it suggests that the Mets may not be years from competing.   They could go into the offseason with fans thinking they’re getting close and with the right moves, including resigning Jose Reyes, the Mets could be a very good team next year.  

There’s going to be a lot of stuff to watch with this team this year, and if they remain competitive and winning games they’ll bring in fans to watch versus fans switching gears to what could be a returning NFL season or something else.  Jose Reyes could have a record breaking season, as despite spotting the opposition 11 or more games, he’s still got a commanding lead in base hits.  David Wright will be returning, one of the Mets franchising players who they’ve sorely missed.  Johan Santana may return, and while that’s still up in the air, as is his effectiveness, it will be nice to see him on the mound again.  I would like to be at his first game back if I can at least.

It all starts tonight against the Phillies with your hero in attendence.   The Phillies aren’t taking the Mets seriously, opting to give  Halladay and Lee some extra rest coming off the break and pushing them back until after the weekend.  Facing Vance Worley, Cole Hamels who the Mets routinely beat, and Kyle Kendrick is not a daunting task.  Hopefully the Mets can get a hot start to the second half, while exposing the Phillies pitching depth, and start catching both them and the Braves who are playing the Nationals this weekend.

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The New York Mets Are Not A Wild Card Team

Two words that have no place in Mets discussions: “Wild Card”

unoWild

I’ve heard it a bunch of places, even  Ron Darlings.  The Wild Card is not a term that needs to be mentioned right now, about a team that’s in first place with 18 games still to play against the biggest challenging team.  The Wild Card need not be mentioned until August at the earliest.  The Wild Card should never be the goal.

The division is not out of the question for the Mets.  There is no doubt in my mind that the Phillies will not run away with anything.  They are a team that won 93 games last year, and the Mets are at the very least 10 games better, and the Nationals are better.  The Phillies play almost 25% of their games against those two teams, so it’s likely that the increased talent would shave a couple of games off the Phillies win total.  The Phillies have a couple of guys injured, and aren’t all that improved over last year anyway.  They had guys have career years last year, and career years often don’t get repeated.  They’re even picking up guys off our scrap heap, which doesn’t say a lot for their pitching or infield depth.  The Mets were criticized for having no depth and having to go with Wilson Valdez and Nelson Figueroa last year, yet the Phillies are doing the very same thing this year.

Anything can happen in a baseball season.  Nothing is decided in the offseason, or in April.  However, it’s going into May soon and the Mets are standing in first place.  I said earlier last week that the goal I would like of the Mets is to get through this home stand with a chance to play the Phillies for first place this coming weekend.  After some excellent baseball games it’s looking like it could be the Mets playing the Phillies to help lengthen their division lead.

Ron Darling had a great comment during a replay of David Wright’s bases clearing triple.  As he was rounding second, Ron said “And right around here is where the monkey jumped off his back.” It’s a good start along those lines, and if the Mets could beat the Phillies, play the Reds and return home solidly in first place it’d go a long way towards erasing 2009.  A lot has been made of the attendance figures at Citi Field so far, but I think a lot more of us would start making the trip to the stadium if they returned home conquering heroes and reclaiming their rightful place atop the National League East.

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Division Isn’t Out of the Question for the Mets

You may have seen that pessimistic post on Metsblog earlier that stated the Mets should be aiming to go 45 and 20 to win the Wild Card.  This is short sighted.  I hate to do this, but let’s go back to 2007.

On July 27th 2007 the Mets were up four games over the Phillies and Braves in second place.  They kept the hordes at bay for a month, and on August 27th were six games up, seven over the Braves, and neither team looked really good.

Then the Mets played that ill-fated series in Philadelphia where they lost four games, the lead dropping to two games and panic started to set in.  The Mets rebounded terrifically winning five in a row and 10 of their next 12.

They hosted the Phillies again on September 12th with a seven game lead and plenty of reason to think that the series in Philadelphia was merely a fluke.

More so than any other reason, the Mets lost in 2007 because they lost those seven games to the Phillies.  In 2009 the Mets and Phillies play eight more times.  They blew their first chance at this a couple of weeks ago, allowing the Phillies to sweep them, but 65 games and eight against the leader is not something you write off.  If the Mets are good enough to overcome the deficit in the wild card, they’re good enough to overcome the deficit in the division.  The Phillies are bound to come back to earth, as they’re not going to play at this crazy winning percentage for the rest of the season, and now they’ve started to be bit by the injury bug as well.  If the Mets can recover and run with it, it’s the division that’s waiting, not the wild card.  If you’re looking for numbers or formulas, here is one for you.

There are 10 weeks left of the season, and 8 games against the Phillies.  Win six of the games against the Phillies, and then play merely one game better than them in five of the other 8 weeks they don’t play Philadelphia.  Win one more game, whether it’s another against the Phillies, another random game during the season, or game 163.  From there the playoffs are your oyster.

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Good Bye and Good Riddence

The Mets game was a disaster, all across the board.  Managing, situational hitting, bullpen.. So while we still have a lead in the wild card and a more than adequate chance to make the division title ours, I’m going to talk about something else.

 

It’s hard to be a baseball fan without at least a little respect for Yankee Stadium (not necessarily the Yankees themselves).  The Stadium has been around for roughly 86 years, and housed some of the earlier stages of baseballs history.  If there is a baseball ‘god’, it’s Babe Ruth, who made the first marks at the Stadium.  So my gut reaction is that they shouldn’t be demolishing something full of so much baseball lore.

 

The Mets fan and Yankees hater side of me enjoys that they’re knocking down something so historic.  You could argue that the Curse of the Bambino that supposedly stopped the Red Sox from winning was actually reversed when the Yankees went through the process of starting to dismantle the Bambino’s house.  The Red Sox won twice, and the Yankees have gradually gotten worse and worse, until this season when they will miss the playoffs entirely.  Going into the final game ever at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees number for elimination is 1.  This means that if they lose, not only will it be the final regular season game in the building, but also clinches that it will be the last game, period.  They’re currently up 5-3 in the 5th, but we’ll see how it turns out. 

 

Physically, Yankee stadium isn’t very nice.  The concourses, specifically on the ground floor, are tight and feel cave like.  The seats aren’t great, and the upper deck is tall and steep.  The entire place feels old, because it _is_ old.  Besides the ‘magic’ behind the historical place, I’m glad they’re knocking it down.  As a baseball fan in New York, I do occasionally find myself at the place, whether randomly or for a Subway Series game, and my priorities when visiting are my own comfort and enjoyment.  I already have to deal with Yankee fans when I’m there, so why add in small concourses, ancient bathrooms, long lines, broken seats and all the other things wrong with the place? 

 

Babe Ruth may miss the place, but I won’t.  May the Yankees live to regret this decision and be doomed to decades of failure.

 

Back to the Mets, I’m sick and tired of Mets fans acting like Luis Castillo is beating up babies and stabbing nuns in the clubhouse.  To me it seems like he plays at least as hard as anyone, and he certainly gets on base more than Argenis Reyes, and more than Easley.  I don’t think the 7th spot in the lineup is the best location for him, but that’s Manuel’s lineup, not Castillo’s.  The guy might not have the range he used to, but he’s certainly not stationary.  If the Mets were pounding in runs, specifically in clutch spots, then maybe you live with a defensive Argenis a little more often.  Right now though, they need both Castillo’s OBP, and his average with runners in scoring position.  

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Division Title is Brewing

Regardless of the struggles for the division, the Brewers inability to win games has put up a safety net for the Mets.  They own a substantial lead over the wild card challengers in Milwaukee, so that even were they to lose the division they’d likely make the playoffs.  However, with a Mets win last night, and a Phillies loss, the Mets are now one loss ahead for the division.  That’s really two, because if they were to end tied, the Mets as winners of the season series would get the division, and the Phillies the Wild Card. 

 

There are nine games left, which is also the magic number to clinch the division outright.  Seven is the magic number to clinch the postseason altogether.  Both are doable.  This team looks good right now; finding ways to win, capitalizing on errors, and not letting their own errors hurt them.

 

86 wins in the book, with nine to play.  Chances are they don’t win every one of them, but end up with a comfortable 90-92.  Which is where they’d have been last year if their collapse had been mini instead of total.  Time to finish it out, put the Phillies away, and win this division.  Leave the final weekend at Shea for Shea, not trying to make the playoffs.

 

Argenis Reyes really should just told he can come back next year.  His spot in the lineup should just read ‘out’.  I know Castillo has been slow returning from the DL, but so has Church, and we’re not killing him.  Castillo is better than Argenis, and a hurt Castillo is better than a hurt Easley, and I don’t think Castillo’s that hurt.  Maybe he’s lost a step here and there, but he still can run the bases, still can draw the walk, still gets on base.  If he can get on base, and Wright, Beltran and Delgado can hit, then everythings peachy.  Argenis Reyes however, hasn’t had a hit in over a month spanning 12 games.  He’s had one walk in that span.  Castillo accomplished both last night.

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Cone Heads! (well not quite)

So as I’m sure you’re all aware, the Mets all shaved their heads last night.
Well not all, and what’s your excuse Aaron Heilman?

Then they came out and battered Matt Cain quickly, in what seemed like five minutes they scored three runs, and then a fourth. Sure you’d like them to have added some more, but they secured the win, a 3-run handicap was plenty for Glavine who himself secured career win number 294, and I’ve actively started considering being there for 300. Runs in the first inning, a vintage 2006 win. Sometime soon we’re going to see the Reyes single followed by a quick Wright home-run. 2-0 with the other team thinking, “Wait, we started the game already?”

I love that these Mets love to play together, and can get behind some team bonding activities. It’s a friendly activity that keeps everyone friendly and happy. Being part of the team is important, it helps you shake off tough losses, struggle through slumps, and just plain learn from the experiences of the other 24 guys. It’s one of those invaluable traits of the 2007 Mets that few people take into account when making predictions and projections.

The Mets are still looking to “click on all cylinders” and I think this was one of their ways of trying to get in sync. Still, the Mets have a 20-12 record, and are tied for first place. Atlanta’s just barely hanging on, despite beating the Mets four of six. What will happen when the Mets do click? I expect one day we’re going to wake up to find the Mets comfortably in first, and the Brave fans quietly calculating Wild Card standings.