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Winning While Slumping: A Rant

image by CeetarTeams slump. The Mets were leading the league in runs per game and suddenly the offense slumped and they started losing. They’re now 6th in runs score in MLB. The Mets are still auditioning center and right fielders with no one standing out, Ruben Tejada and Ike Davis have under performed, and we knew John Buck was not that good.

 

All teams slump, good ones, great ones, and horrible ones. It’s too early to say which the Mets are, and it’s certainly silly to take the results of the last week as more meaningful than the first couple just because it fits better with what you expected, but good teams should find a way to win at least some games while they’re slumping. The Phillies are probably not a great team, and getting swept by them is not a good sign. There were plenty of opportunities that the Mets let get away, and while it’s possible to do everything right and still lose, it’s also possible to steal games when you’re struggling.

 

John Buck, Ike Davis, and a couple of others muffed a couple of foul outs that could’ve been converted. Not all of them led directly to runs, but all the extended innings and extra pitches lead to things like tired arms or more bullpen. Pitchers made a couple of poor pitches on top of poor pitches that led to runs. Perhaps Terry Collins could’ve been more aggressive, or less aggressive, in pitching changes or lineup changes that ended up costing the Mets a better shot at winning. Like most losing streaks, there are a billion second guesses of the players, the manager, and the overall strategy.

 

Sometimes the bounces go the wrong way, the pitcher you choose has a bad day, or the pitch you guess is simply wrong. Those are the breaks, the notorious 50 games that every team loses and there is nothing you can do about. Teams destined for the playoffs will find ways to minimize the damage while they’re slumping. Sometimes a pitcher will pitch a gem and stifle the opponent enough to steal a win with only a run or two, other times a batter here or there will capitalize on the one bad pitch the opponent throws for a 3-run home run to win the game 3-2 even though the offense only managed three hits. This avoids sweeps and turns 1-2 series losses into 2-1 series wins. When the slump end the team will only have gone 4-6 instead of 2-8 and can use a surge in fortune to get ahead of the competition instead of making up for the ground they lost during the slump.

 

So far the Mets are not doing this. That’s not to say they can’t. Lucas Duda, Ike Davis, and David Wright are all talented enough to have game-changing at bats even amidst personal or team slumps. Matt Harvey and Jon Niese are talented pitchers, both capable of pitching a gem that wins a game despite slumping offense. Jon Niese came close Sunday, and perhaps Terry Collins should’ve left him in to finish the seventh instead of going to the bullpen to face Ryan Howard. I’m always a fan of having the top players on my team on the mound or at the plate during the critical points in the game, and that was certainly one of them.

 

It’s early yet, and the teams that win in April are not a lock to get to October. If the Mets are going to grow into a competitor, they’re going to have to find a way to minimize long losing streaks and win some of these games when things aren’t going perfectly.

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It Was Just One Game, Let’s Overreact

It was a horrible game. The Mets played sloppy baseball all around the diamond, and didn’t hit the ball with runners in scoring position. Niese didn’t throw enough curveballs and was forced to get too many outs in one inning, but survived through five.

This game was not a result of comments made by guys in suits. This game was the result of play on the field, which wasn’t better than the Cubs play on the field. Ruben Tejada was not thinking about what a meanie Fred Wilpon was to Jose Reyes when he failed to catch a pop-up going back.

Jason Bay is not done.   He’s not very good, deserves all sorts of criticism, and is killing the lineup but he’s not done.   Just like Carlos Delgado was not done in 2008. Remember him? I always laugh because there’s a blog out there called Ketchup On Your Ice Cream, whose last post was a frantic call for Mike Carp to replace him.  This blog still stands, nearly three years later, as a monument to not overreacting.   Yes, Bay looks horrible.  Luckily he’s a hard worker and a hustler.  He can come out of it.  No better time than right now, when the Mets need offense the most. 

Justin Turner is not “regressing to the mean” as I saw one beat writer note last night.  Rookies do not regress, because the idea of regressing suggests a baseline value.  Justin Turner does not have a baseline value, because his major league sample size is ridiculously small.  Even punching in his Buffalo numbers to the extremely questionable minor league equivalency calculator gives him a respectable .743 OPS in the majors.  Obviously it’s unlikely he’ll hit like Albert Pujols and drive in a run every game, but that doesn’t mean he’s trash. 

The Mets are not done.  Yes, they’re in a tough spot with the offense.  Justin Turner helped some, but when he cooled off no one else stepped up to get big hits.  When the offense is struggling the defense needs to make the plays and avoid costly mistakes that extend innings and make things tougher.  The Mets had been pretty good at that, but they’ve gotten sloppy again lately.  They’ve got one of those “turning point” series coming up this weekend with the Phillies.  Everyone overreacting right now will likely be overreacting in the other direction if the Mets win that series.

The pitching is not horrible.  The bullpen is actually very good, but the starters are what’s in question here.  Yes, Pelfrey and Niese fell apart around some sloppy play and bad luck, but they’re not crap.  Pelfrey is a solid above average workhorse type pitcher and Niese is still learning the league and the craft.  Dickey put up a good showing on Friday and hopefully that means he’s back in command of his knuckleball.   Gee’s a rookie and Capuano’s pretty solidly average.  I’ve long been saying the good part of the Mets rotation, and the team in general, is that they all around don’t suck.  There aren’t any huge black holes and automatic outs or gimme pitchers.   Every pitcher is capable of pitching very well, and most of the time they’ll keep the team in games.   The lack of an ace, for now, is mitigated some by having an above average back end of the rotation.  I also suspect Sandy Alderson is looking for a couple of pitchers that could help out a little, for depth purposes, but it’s hard to find much in May. 

So in the end, it’s just one game.  You can’t overreact and point to every three game losing streak as confirmation  that all the negative gibberish spouted about the Mets is true anymore than you can take a three game winning streak as evidence that I’m correct in my prediction of the Mets clinching the division on August 25th against the Phillies.  It’s a long season, and lots of things change week to week and even day to day.

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Back to .500

The Mets came inches away from their third straight shut out as Teixeira’s home run just missed Beltran’s glove.  In fact, that would’ve been an easy fly out in every other ballpark in the majors.

You can't see the new building in this picture because it's blocked by that historic structure Babe Ruth once played in...wait, what?

Now the Mets are back at .5oo and 22-22 on the season.  They played poorly early on, but despite injuries have really settled down.  They’ve suddenly got a very potent bullpen.  That’s not an exaggeration either, their bullpen has been as good as you could want for quite a while now.  Beato’s back to try to continue his scoreless inning streak.  Jason Isringhausen, if they considered relievers for the award, would be on his way to comeback player of the year.   Francisco Rodriguez remains one of the best closers in the game, and may actually be the best this year.

 

The bullpen is meaningless if the starters are going to let games get away, but they haven’t been doing that.  The starters have been keeping them in games.  The offense is crippled without David Wright, Angel Pagan and Ike Davis, but if they can continue to play the way they’ve been playing they’ll find themselves in a very favorable position as those guys trickle back into the lineup.

 

Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson both deserve some credit for what’s gone on.   Collins has this team focused and playing good baseball, and Alderson hasn’t been shy to shuffle the roster around and reward guys that deserve playing time; like Justin Turner.

 

I said yesterday I like the way the Mets match up this weekend, and I stand by that. The Mets can hit Burnett tonight and Pelfrey is a better pitcher than Ivan Nova.  Another series win, and perhaps a sweep, is within the Mets grasp.

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Keep Doing That

Swing and a Miss

The Mets starting pitcher, R.A. Dickey pitched as well as, or better than, the Astros pitcher Bud Norris.  Dickey pitched eight innings and gave up four runs, for a 4.5 ERA on the day, and Norris pitched six innings and gave up three runs, also equaling a 4.5 ERA.   I’d give the tie-breaker to length, especially since relievers are generally not as good as starters.

The Mets also out-hit the Astros. The Mets got 12 hits, with three extra base hits, and the Astros got eight, with three extra base hits.

Of course, when all was said and done the Mets made a variety of mistakes and lost the game.  The Mets cannot afford to lose these games that are practically handed to them, but if they continue to pitch and hit like they did today, they WILL win most of those games. What they need to do is identify what they’re doing wrong that’s giving them such a low amount of runs per hit, and why the opponents hits seem to be worth so much more. 

Not bunting with only three precious outs left on the first pitch with one of the fastest guys in the game on first base would also go a long way towards not losing.

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5-1 Homestand Still Alive

I wanted the Mets to go 5-1 on this homestand to claw their way back to respectability.   If they lose the first one, the third one, or the 6th one, the resulting record is the same.  I’m sure the Mets understand this, but I’m going to head out to Flushing tomorrow to make sure they start winning again.  (Follow me for in-game thoughts and pictures from around Citi Field)

 

While it’s still April and very early, the longer the Mets play losing baseball the better they’ll have to play, for longer, to make up for it.  While I still believe the Mets are a good team, and certainly better than this, there does come a point where they’re going to have to show it.  They don’t have to come out blazing to a 10-1 stretch and just destroy everyone, but they do have to play consistent baseball and win more games than they lose.

 

They just need to win, and it doesn’t need to be pretty.  It could  be a 9-walk complete game shutout.  A 4-error game where the opposition fails to capitalize.  Jose Reyes could power the offense with three home runs in a 9-8 slugfest.  At this point they just need to start putting up Ws.  It starts with not giving free bases, not giving up outs, and not making too many dangerous mistakes in the field.  But it also starts with picking up your teammates when they do make a mistake, such as Wright did diving to get Lee at third base after Turner’s error.  Pitchers need to start striking out a batter after an error and not getting rattled by it and the fielders need to stop thinking they need to get two outs at once and stop panicking in the field.

 

Divisions are not won in April.  In fact, three of last years playoff teams were at or below .500 on May first.  There is still time for the Mets to settle down and start playing better.   There’s plenty of time for Collins to stop playing guys that tend to suck, and for Alderson to wish those that suck away into the cornfield for players from the minors or other clubs that suck less.

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They Come Home Winners

It’s  been a rough stretch for the Mets, but they’ll return home winners, having ended their losing streak Sunday in Atlanta.  For now it’s just one game, but they do face two of the weaker teams in the league during this six game homestand.

 

They’ve hopefully put the three games in 24 hours meme to rest, eliminating the need to juggle the roster, shuffle relievers and starters, and try to figure out how to keep everyone rested.  T hey can also get back into a normal routine of everyday baseball and hopefully eliminate some of these silly mistakes they’ve been making.

 

It’s the perfect time to start getting on a hot streak; the weather starts warming up, the starting pitchers arms have been strengthened a little, and Jason Bay may even be back as soon as Tuesday.

 

The bullpen has started to settle down as well, and has started to build up a sample size that Terry Collins can use when decided how and when to use different relievers to maximize success.

 

The Mets have played less than 10% of their games so far, and there is  plenty of baseball to be played.  I could give you a whole list of teams that have had poor Aprils that go on to have successful season as well as mention all sorts of statistics Mets player are posting that will get better. Right now we’re only look at one small sample of mostly under-performing data.   Many of those numbers will level out over the months to come, and many players will experience over-performing stretches that lead to more wins than losses.  It’s simply unfair to judge the team conclusively on this small sample of games.  They need to win games, but right now simply that they’re playing them is joy enough.

 

They return to Citi Field after an off-day on a one game winning streak with the path laid out in front of them to start making winning the trend, and losing the aberration.

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Could This Be The Mets Final Test?

Could this be the final test for the Mets?

I hope it’s not, but if they fail it may mean the figurative end to their season.  The next two weeks are very critical, and the first order of business is just flat out winning games.  The Mets have played very well at home this year, and they’ve got three games against the tough Cardinals, and then three against the not so tough Diamondbacks.  There can be no excuses: They have to win games.  Omar’s job, provided he still has one, is to bring in reinforcements after that.  The trading deadline is next weekend, and the Mets are in need of some help.  No longer can they play waiting games or decide they don’t like the price.  When you drop as many games in the standings as the Mets did, you no longer have the luxury of pretending you’re not desperate for help.

After the Diamondbacks the Mets again head on the road.  It’s this road trip that could prove to be critical, as they face the Braves and the Phillies.  The Braves have been amazing lately, and the Mets have been making just about every other ballpark look to them like Turner Field did around the turn of the century.  By falling so far back, it’s become imperative that they make up ground by beating the competition in front of them.  Losing and falling further behind could very well be a death blow.

The Mets have been extremely streaky this year and they really are much better than they’ve shown lately.  If they take that streak and turn it into a hot stretch where they’re again a team that’s tough to beat, they could climb right back into this race.  There is still a lot of baseball to be played and August could be a good month for them.  After they play the division rivals on the road, they come home for the Rockies and the Phillies before going on a road trip that one would describe similarly to the Cleveland-Baltimore trip they took that they were successful on: they play the Astros and the Pirates.  Another home stretch with the Marlins and the Astros provides plenty of time to fight their way back into this race before facing the Braves again at the end of the month.

Can the Mets ace this next test and fight their way back into relevancy again?  I don’t know.  Neither answer would surprise me, but I’m certain they’re capable of it.  They often say you need to get hot at the right time and if the Mets can capitalize on that by beating up on the division rivals, as the Phillies did in 2007, they can certainly win this division.

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Did Wednesday’s Lost Cost the Mets Millions?

Animated Gif Money (18)How much money did Wednesday’s loss cost the Mets?  The different between 15-13 and 16-12 is huge, as is bouncing back from a bad series with the Phillies with a winning one against a lesser team.  The Mets after their awesome home stand had a ton of good will brewing in the fan base, but they threw it all away with a miserable road trip.

Even if the Mets split the road trip, I think most fans would still be feeling good about the team.  They’d buy tickets, they’d head out to Citi Field to see the Giants, and more importantly, to see the Mets.  The Nationals come in again next week, and who really wants to see the Nationals if the Mets are playing poorly?  (Besides die-hards like me, who’s probably going to two of those games)

So, how many fans are going to now stay home for this stretch of games? 5000 a game? 10000?  The Mets haven’t been drawing well, it’s not yet summer, and they’re coming off some bad play. Between ticket prices, parking, concessions, and souvenirs the Mets are going to end up missing out on a lot of money that they may have gotten just off one more win.

I’m sure the Mets are aware of this.  They know what the perception of the team is, and they have access to their own records and attendance figures.  While the answer isn’t as simple as a player move, or a bad lineup, you wonder where the Mets would be and how we’d feel about the team if they’d cut Gary Matthews Jr, Frank Catalanotto, or Fernando Tatis for Chris Carter, Nick Evans or Jason Pridie.  How much better would we feel if Jerry Manuel rested relievers better, didn’t rest Castillo for Cora one game in each of the last three series, or didn’t stick with guys like Gary Matthews or Mike Jacobs when everyone else realizes they have nothing to offer?

So the Mets are aware of the problem, and know some of the problem areas.  It seems unlikely they’ll wise up and get a decent manager in here, but I’d definitely bet on the roster being shaken up a bit.  I think the Mets trust a guy like Carter over some kind of center field replacement like Jason Pridie or Jesus Feliciano, but I’ve been wrong before.  Maybe the Mets are leaning towards sparking excitement through young players, such as they did with Ike Davis when Chris Carter may have done.  Could it be that Fernando Martinez could be the starting centerfielder on Friday against the Giants?

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Reyes Wants You

From MetsStuff

Jose Reyes wants me to cut work on Wednesday to go to the Mets game in the afternoon. Now, he must not realize by how much he’s seen me in the stands that I’m currently unemployed, but I feel obliged to obey; I’ll be at the game Wednesday afternoon. And who wouldn’t want to be given how the Mets are playing? The last five games they won, they won at home, and against Pennsylvania. Winning front and center in front of Mets fans has, and will, go a long way towards making Citi Field home, and making these fans fall back in love with this team.

I was at the game at Saturday, and it was nice and comfortable being at what amounted to a laugher. I was more amused than annoyed at Maholm’s home run 20 feet to my right. I debated things like leaving Ken in to hit and pitch three innings so he could get the save, or if they should finally get Stokes some work (as they did), instead of if they should waste outs bunting or try to steal a base to try to get the lead. It was utterly enjoyable.

Also enjoyable were our seats. Section 103, row 4, seats 1-5. The seats were not completely unreasonable at $40 face value. They turned out to be (as seats 1-8 are behind the camera well in right field) front row seats by the right field foul pole. There were negatives, as we couldn’t really see the scoreboard behind the Pepsi Porch above us, and seats 1,2 and 3 had to contend with the foul pole in front of them, which led to a lot of leaning back and forth the whole game. However, there were plenty of plusses from the perspective. A couple of people in our section started really getting on the RF Brandon Moss. We had a really good view of all plays in RF, including Wright’s triple that Moss missed, and Sheffield’s sliding catch. We also had a very good view of plays at first base. We got to see all the flies to RF arc towards us, and got to judge fair or foul, see them bounce, see the RF range over to make the catch, or miss it.

Tonight’s a big game, not for the Mets necessarily, but for Omar. The chatter is all going to be about how he failed to get Derek Lowe by giving him extra money/years that probably weren’t wise. Oliver Perez struggled, and Lowe succeeded. If the Mets rough up Lowe, it won’t look as lopsided a decision, whereas if they lose, it’ll be all about how Minaya made a mistake. Luckily, Johan Santana is on the mound, and no one doubts that he’s better than either of ’em. Here’s hoping for 8 in a row.

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Winning Streak

Four in a row against division rivals. That’s what champions do. Last I checked, throwing elbows and trying to draw penalties is a soccer move, not a baseball one. No one’s surprised that Victorino is a punk though. I echo the sentiments around the other blogs that say, “Drill Him.” Or better yet, just drill Utley. He hangs out over the plate enough that you could probably bean him and not even draw a warning, although drawing a warning gives you a leg up when they try to retaliate. Of course, I’m not sure the Phillies have a pitcher with enough control to hit a batter.

Now the team has to stave off a letdown, and play three against the Pirates. After that, three more against the division rival Braves before the west coast trip that has them with a layover in Boston on the way home. It’ll be a tough two weeks, but it’s time for the Mets to rise to the top. No more wallowing around .500, dropping below, bouncing back, etc etc. I’m not suggesting they need to win six here for a 10 game winning streak, but you’d like to see at least four of six.

I caught the game from the Pepsi Porch last night for the first time, and despite initial reservations about the area, I love it. I was in row six, just in foul territory, but it felt so close. Do to the porch nature, the right fielder was semi-obstructed, but the only thing I missed was Ryan Howard’s home run, and I didn’t need to see that. Besides, I could see four different televisions on the Excelsior level to my left, and was able to watch replays and note that Keith was roaming the park. This is also how I figured out it was a bogus obstruction call they were fighting about, because watching the play unfold I didn’t notice it. The only thing about the Porch is that it’s a small one-way exit, and if you want to head to the Center Field Taste of the City food court, you have to walk out of your way. They really could use a staircase straight down, but those are Mets offices and I guess they don’t have a Porch access stairwell.

I had the elote corn, which was delicious, as well as the tacos that Matt Cerrone, among others, always seem to be ranting about. They were also excellent. I had another Brooklyn Sabroso Ale, and came back to have a Goose Island India Pale Ale, even if it’s a Chicago beer. I feel like they should not sell those when the Cubs are in town, but that’s silly.

From 041609_Padres

Good game, good atmosphere at the park, good winning streak, good feelings. Let’s Go Mets!