Posted on

Letters to the NL East, Part 5, Dear Mets…

Letters to the NL East, Part 5.

 

Dear Beloved New York Mets,

 

Get angry.  Seemingly everyone is against you and no one believes in you, but just because circumstances have worked against you recently doesn’t mean you’re out already for 2011.  What do the experts know?  It’s finally time to actually play some baseball, something you’re all pretty good at.  It’s time to surprise some people.  I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a division winner, with the clinching game coming on Sunday September 25th the Phillies on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.  Bobby Valentine will call the action.

 

David Wright says you need to practice beating teams and getting that swagger and confidence back.  Do it.  The first nine games are against the Marlins, the Nationals, and the Phillies.  With the Phillies you get Hamels who pitches poorly against the Mets, Blanton who’s not very good, and Roy Halladay. It’s the perfect opportunity to get off to a fast start, get Bay and Paulino back, get guys healthy and on track, and start doling out punishment.

 

Remember, as much as the media wants to write about the Mets being in disrepair, the financial mess, and all the recycled story lines about grit and soft players that they’ve used in the past, if you give them a different story to write they’ll run with that too.  People still write about the 1986 team, of which it’s the 25th anniversary of, because their story of beating up on the league and being unapologetic about it was fun to write.  So give the writers a story about redemption and revenge.   Cast the team, and Wright, as David versus Goliath.  Treat everyone as the enemy and don’t let up.

 

The best thing about this team is it’s depth and balance.   There aren’t a lot, if any, bad players on this team.  No Jeff Francoeur, no Gary Matthews Jr.  There are a variety of relievers that could’ve made the team that are waiting around in Port St. Lucie, and there are seemingly a half dozen different outfield prospects that could show up at any given time.  Sure, no one ran away with the second base job, but no one threw it away either.  Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner and even Ruben Tejada are right around the corner, or at the end of the dugout, should Emaus not be the guy.  Your worst pitcher is either a second year prospect who could come close to 200 Ks, or a former All-Star who pitched to a sub-4 ERA in 66 innings last year in returning from injury.

 

You are not going to be easy to beat this year, and with some discipline and health, you could make it a really exciting season.   Remember, no one gets a handicap for winning the division last year, or for having the best team on paper.  It’s time to play the games.

 

Your Excited Supporter,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

Posted on

Letters to the NL East, Part 4, Dear Phillies…

Letters to the NL East, Part 4.

Dear Phillies,

 

Is Chase Utley enjoying his rocking chair?  Let me warn you now, you’re going to say “Once everyone gets healthy” a lot while the Mets and Braves distance themselves from you in the division.

 

Good job offering Cliff Lee the most money per year, and keeping him from the Yankees.  You see, they’d score runs for him.  I find it hard to believe that you are  better off with Lee than with Werth.  Ibanez’s power seems to be vanishing and he’s aging quickly.  Rollins hasn’t really been good in three years, he’s batting third in the lineup yet has a .258 AVG, and .320 OBP over the last three years.  You’re using whatever warm bodies you could find for right field and second base.

 

You’ve got great pitching, but none of them are good hitters.  Also, every year dozen

s of great pitchers have sub-par years, get hurt, or get no run support.  Will Hamels rising walk rate make him ineffective? Will Oswalt’s back hold up? Roy Halladay threw 750 innings over the last three years, not including Spring Training.  That’s a lot of wear and tear on an arm.

 

Your a talented team, more talented than your fans deserve, but you don’t have a lot of depth and aren’t built to handle injuries.  But injuries happen, and if you play Wilson Valdez for any extended period of time you might as well shoot yourself in the foot now.

 

And that bullpen! No Lidge, you’ve got Contreras closing for now because you can’t trust Madson.  Contreras, who’s 10 among active pitchers in wild pitches and 20th in errors, is who you’re going to trust in pressure situations.  The bullpen wasn’t good last year and it doesn’t look any better.  What’s your plan? Burn out the starters and hope they hold up all season?  You can only push an arm so much before it breaks.

 

You know what they say…the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

 

Your Bitter Rival,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

Posted on

Letters to the NL East, Part 3, Dear Marlins…

To read previous letters, go here.
Letters to the NL East, part 3
Dear Florida Marlins,
Like most  embarrassing franchises, you didn’t do anything real exciting this offseason.  Oh sure, you signed John Buck, a very nice catcher, but he’s not going to fill the void left by Uggla in his contract year. You paid too much for Javier Vazquez, who was basically terrible last year and was looking for a cozy place to pitch himself into oblivion, and you won’t even get draft picks for him if he does have a good year and bolts.
Kudos though for spending more money this year, if only slightly.  Obviously we all know it’s an attempt to garner a little bit of interest going into a new stadium in 2012.  I can’t help but wonder if you even care how well the team does this year, as long as it looks like it’s going to be better in 2012.  The Mets set attendance highs leaving Shea Stadium, but it looks like the Marlins may set attendance lows leaving Sun Life Stadium.  The only question is if you’ll have more fans in the stands than names for the stadium.

You did a good job revamping the bullpen, which from what I can remember was terrible.   Still, you look a team with some nice players, some passable prospects, and some just not very good ones.  In the end, you’re just boring.  you’re good enough to win games,  not bad enough to be schedule-fodder, but there isn’t much hope for anything else.  At least it doesn’t look like you’ll drag us to Puerto Rico this year.

Your bored “rival”,

Optimistic Mets Fan

Posted on

My MLB Player Prop Bets

I made a couple more single dollar prop bets yesterday.   Nothing real fancy.
Jose Reyes – SB in the 2011 Regular Season
Over 33½ (-125)
Mariano Rivera – Total Saves in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 36 (-115)

Will any of the Big 4 win the NL Cy Young?
Big 4 include Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels
No -180
 
Cole Hamels – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
Under 16½ (-120)

Carlos Beltran – BA in the 2011 Regular Season
Over .273 -115
Andy Pettitte – Will he pitch for the Yankees in the 2011 Regular Season
 No -200
 
 
How many of the Big 4 will win over 20 games or more in the 2011 Regular Season?
Under 1 (-115)
RA Dickey – Total Wins in the 2011 Regular Season
 Over 11½ (-115)
 
 
Who will win more games in the regular season series between the 2 teams listed. Must play at least 15 games for action.
New York Mets +240
Competitor: Atlanta Braves

Posted on

Letters to the NL East, Part 0, Dear Yankees…

To read previous letters, go here.
Letters to the NL East, part 0

Dear New York Yankees,

It’s April again.  It’s time to see how your collection of players that were good in the early part of last decade hold up in 2011.  The offense should be fine with mansion-building Jeter manning shortstop.  Even if he can’t quite man the position, at least he can make fine looking leaping throws since he lacks the arm strength of Jose Reyes to reach first otherwise.

The Mets released Oliver Perez, but if we still want to see his act we can always tune in to Yankees games when A.J. Burnett pitches.  Your bullpen looks good, sure, but Mariano is another year older and has presumably reached the stage where he’ll never have to audition for another contract again; the opposite of a contract year.  Soriano has been said to be a bit of a malcontent, we burned Pedro Feliciano out already, and most of us are tired of the Joba show.  Did you really add Luis Ayala, prominent 2008 collapsee, to the roster?

You’ve got steep competition in that division; the Red Sox are clearly better on paper and I wouldn’t count out the Rays.  The Blue Jays have managed to at least be dangerous in recent years and the Orioles are gunning for you.

Good luck trying to make the playoffs this year…you’ll need it.

You crosstown rival,

Optimistic Mets Fan

Posted on

Letters to the NL East, Part 1, Dear Nats..

Dear Washington Nationals,

 

You closed Five Guys and are building Shake Shack in Nationals Park? Copy cats!  If you take our Brooklyn beers, I’ll be furious.  Let me guess, it was all Alex Cora’s idea?

 

Should I be talking about your actual team?  Is there actually anything to talk about?  You’re going to finish last, it’s just a matter of how badly.  Oh, I know, you’ve got a shiny new slugger in right field stolen away from the Phillies.  Kudos on making them a weaker team, that should help us out.  I’m sorry you still have to pay him that much money in 2018.  Don’t worry though, those draft picks you got when Steven Strasburg left for free agency will probably be reaching the majors right around then and won’t be making much money.

 

At least your team isn’t _completely_ horrible this year.  Maybe you can play spoiler and beat up on the Braves and Phillies a bit in September.  Still, you’ll have to pitch and I’ve seen a better rotation in batting practice.  Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis should fun to face this year.  The Mets couldn’t have a better Opening Day opponent.

 

Your Friens Ahead Of You in the Shake Shack line,

Optimistic Mets Fan

Posted on

Letters to the NL East, Part 2, Dear Braves…

Dear Atlanta Braves,

 

You think you can quietly build a quality team and surprise people by trying to take this division?  Think again. More often than not this division has been about the Mets chasing you guys, but this year will be different.  Chipper Jones is no longer a scrappy rookie; in fact Larry is a worn down old player that has trouble staying on the field.

 

I’m aware you may try to compete for the best offense in the league, but remember that Alex Gonzalez is not good, Freddie Freeman is an unproven rookie, and Nate McLouth has been bad.  If Chipper can’t play, that offense suddenly isn’t very good, especially on days McCann needs a break.

 

Yes yes, pitching is your thing.  I get it.  You’ve got Hudson back healthy and young Tommy Hanson, cousin to the members of the band Hanson, looks like the real deal.  A fair amount probably hinges on Jair Jurrjens being able to regain his form from two years ago, and if that’s going to happen is yet to be seen.  Just make sure not too many balls are hit to second, or Uggla will do his best to undo defensively any value he creates with his bat.

 

Waiting to reverse the tomahawk chop on you,

 

Optimistic Mets Fan

Posted on

Interesting Article on Optimism in America

Joe Mathews on Zócalo Public Square wrote an interesting article about optimism in baseball, and also in America.

 

It speaks to the doe-eyed optimism we usually experience on Opening Day, the time when all teams are still tied for first and anything is possible.  And then it tears it down as a sort of “ignorance is bliss” fairy tale.  Mathews suggests we stop holding the game up on a pedestal and instead embrace it and all it’s flaws.  In a way, I think this view has been forced upon us lately, with all the cheating and steroids and looking the other way.  You see some stick their head in the sand and try to forget Andy Pettitte, Barry Bonds, or Alex Rodriguez were, or are, cheating and you see others desperately cling to their innocence and claim their favorite player, whether Piazza or Jeter or someone else, was clean the whole time.  Perhaps it’s better to accept the flaws and the corruption and stop pretending it’s a game played between gentleman and instead a battle of players doing anything they can, against the rules or not, to win.

 

A point he makes about the Mets that a lot of people don’t seem to be bringing up is that a lot of the Mets actions over the past couple of decades have been funded via Madoff profits.  This is perhaps a simplistic look, as the Mets certainly would’ve invested elsewhere and still signed players and make moves, but it’s not a stretch to say that Tom Glavine’s acquisition was funded by Bernie Madoff.

Anyway, it’s an interesting read and it’s not that long. Check it out.

 

 

Posted on

Mets Bloggers Chat With Terry Collins

In what still feels like a dream, the Mets continue to invite some of us bloggers to chat with Mets VIPs.  Tonight we had a conference call with Terry Collins.  My impressions of him are positive, he seems very high energy and seems to be making a concerted effort to learn from previous mistakes and accept that he doesn’t know everything.  He still strikes me as a fairly traditional manager in terms of the Xs and Os, but it’s still rare for a baseball team to stray far from that in a managerial hire.

 

I asked him about keeping players fresh and managing playing time, specifically as it related to Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran.  (And David Wright, but he didn’t answer that and we know Wright will be fine anyway)

 

He mentioned Beltran will probably play five of seven games starting out, and hopefully will strengthen his knees and when it gets warmer hopefully play more.  With Reyes, he acknowledged that Reyes is a guy that gives you everything he’s got and it’s important to get him rest when he needs it, and to possibly double it up by resting him going into or coming out of an off day.  Here’s his response as transcribed by Michael Baron of Metsblog.

 

“Carlos and I have already discussed the upcoming ten day period, and resting that leg, so he can continue on a positive note and his legs can get stronger and stronger for the hot months. Even if he’s on the bench, he can come up and make a big difference. We hope to have him in five out of seven games to start off. Regarding Reyes, he goes out there, gives all he has, and I want him out there a lot so I have to be wise enough to maybe give him days off before an off-day. One thing we have to do, because we aren’t very deep, is to make sure we are ready to compete later in the summer.”

 

Michael Baron at Metsblog transcribed this quickly and efficiently.

Greg at Faith and Fear in Flushing finds Terry Collins’ enthusiasm infectious, even on the phone.

Eric Simon at Amazin’ Avenue asks Terry about Kerfuffle.

Kerel Cooper at On The Black with a recap and better list of links than this.

 

Posted on

Why The Mets Can Compete: Best Offense in the NL

Don’t believe everything you hear: The New York Mets can compete for a division title this season.

 

The Best Offense in the National League

The Mets have a surprisingly potent offense, and it’s getting glossed over with all the negativity surrounding the team.  I’ve been calling it the best lineup in the National League, and while it’s certainly premature to proclaim anything like that before the season has started, I think they can definitely make a case for it.  I’m not even the only one that thinks the Mets bats aren’t getting a fair shake. Here’s Ted Berg with his take on the lineup.

There are other good lineups out there.  The Reds scored a ton of runs last year and their lineup remains mostly intact.  Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Scott Rolen make up the meat of that lineup, and that’s pretty formidable.

The Cardinals have Albert Pujols.  You could almost end the discussion right there, as “They have Pujols” is often the deciding factor in which offense is better.  The Cardinals also have Matt Holliday, as well as Yadier Molina, David Freese, and Colby Rasmus.  Still, I’m not sold on Ryan Theriot, Lance Berkman, or Skip Schumaker contributing that much to the lineup.

The Brewers have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.

Perhaps more immediately dangerous to the Mets is the Atlanta Braves. Dan Uggla, Chipper Jones if he’s healthy, Brian McCann behind the plate.  An outfield of Heyward, Prado and McLouth.  The Braves can definitely hit the ball this year.

Now let’s actually look at the Mets.  Pagan has put up great numbers with the Mets and last year could play center as well as anyone.  Jose Reyes is healthy and prepared for the season this year, and already looks to be the Jose we know and love.  He actually had good numbers last year once he finally got up to speed after missing Spring Training.  He needs to walk more, but he’s a dynamic force at the top of the lineup.  Similar to the Braves with Chipper, Carlos Beltran needs to stay healthy and on the field.  It’s easy to forget just how good he is when he’s not playing, but having him in there for 130-140+ games is going to be a great boon.   You’d like David Wright to strike out less, but he’s still a talented frontline bat in the center of the lineup.  Jason Bay had a down year that was punctuated by a concussion, but it’s not hard to think that he’ll return to smashing home runs and getting on base at a great rate.  He doesn’t need to hit 40 to help this team either; if he can keep his OBP high and not make out, even if he only hits 25-30, that’ll be a great help.

Now the back end of the lineup is what will make or break my argument.  I think the Mets have a deep lineup, and unlike past years with guys like Jeff Francoeur, or Gary Matthews Jr, or Brian Schneider, the Mets don’t have an obvious glaring hole.  Ike Davis had an excellent rookie year, and the hope would be that he builds on it.  He’s got a lot of power and was perhaps rushed a bit last year with the injury to Murphy.  Now with a full season, starting the season in the majors and comfortable in his role, hopefully he can improve.  Josh Thole has had limited time, but everything we’ve seen from him has been good. He’s a guy with good bat control that doesn’t strike out and has an above average OBP for a catcher.  We’ve seen some signs that he’ll grow into some power as well.  He’ll never be Mike Piazza, but it’s been a long time since we’ve had a catcher that actually did any hitting.  The last guy in the lineup, right now, is Brad Emaus.  It’s hard to project what he’ll add, as he hasn’t had any major league experience.   He put up very good numbers in AAA last year, with a .397 OBP and 15 home runs.   So he’s a patient guy, and hopefully he can utilize some of that patience to draw walks in the majors as well.

If the lineup holds up as it’s constructed now, it’s certainly in the running for a dangerous lineup.  Will it be “the best?”  Only time will tell, but I like the Mets chances in that regard.